From: Michael Oppenheimer To: Eric Steig; Stephen H Schneider Cc: Gabi Hegerl; Mark B Boslough; trenbert@ucar.edu; Thomas Crowley; Dr. Krishna AchutaRao; Myles Allen; Natalia Andronova; Tim C Atkinson; Rick Anthes; Caspar Ammann; David C. Bader; Tim Barnett; Eric Barron; Graham" "Bench; Pat Berge; George Boer; Celine J. W. Bonfils; James A." "Bono; James Boyle; Ray Bradley; Robin Bravender; Keith Briffa; Wolfgang Brueggemann; Lisa Butler; Ken Caldeira; Peter Caldwell; Dan Cayan; Peter U. Clark; Amy Clement; Nancy Cole; William Collins; Tina Conrad; Curtis Covey; birte dar; Davies Trevor Prof; Jay Davis; Tomas Diaz De La Rubia; Andrew Dessler; Michael" "Dettinger; Phil Duffy; Paul J." "Ehlenbach; Kerry Emanuel; James Estes; Veronika" "Eyring; David Fahey; Chris Field; Peter Foukal; Melissa Free; Julio Friedmann; Bill Fulkerson; Inez Fung; Jeff Garberson; PETER GENT; Nathan Gillett; peter gleckler; Bill Goldstein; Hal Graboske; Tom Guilderson; Leopold Haimberger; Alex Hall; James Hansen; harvey; Klaus Hasselmann; Susan Joy Hassol; Isaac Held; Bob Hirschfeld; Jeremy Hobbs; Dr. Elisabeth A. Holland; Greg Holland; Brian Hoskins; mhughes; James Hurrell; Ken Jackson; c jakob; Gardar Johannesson; Philip D. Jones; Helen Kang; Thomas R Karl; David Karoly; Jeffrey Kiehl; Steve Klein; Knutti Reto; John Lanzante; wily@ucar.edu; Ron Lehman; John lewis; Steven A. "Lloyd (GSFC-610.2)[R S INFORMATION SYSTEMS INC]"; Jane Long; Janice Lough; mann; emaurer@scu.edu; Linda Mearns; carl mears; Jerry Meehl; Jerry Melillo; George Miller; Norman Miller; Art Mirin; John FB" "Mitchell; Phil Mote; Neville Nicholls; Gerald R. North; Astrid E.J. Ogilvie; Stephanie Ohshita; Tim Osborn; Stu" "Ostro; j palutikof; Joyce Penner; Thomas C Peterson; Tom Phillips; David Pierce; plattner@ipcc.unibe.ch; V. Ramaswamy; Veerabhadran" "Ramanathan; Sarah Raper; Phil Rasch; Kathryn Rauhut; Doug Rotman; Terry L. Root; Robert "Sausen, DLR"; jsanter; John Schellnhuber; David Schimel; Michael Schlesinger; Gavin Schmidt; Christina L. Schomer; Lynda Seaver; Dian J. Seidel; Ted Sheppard; s sherwood; Adrian Simmons; socci anthony; brian soden; Susan Solomon; Ken Sperber; Anne Stark; Thomas Stocker; Ronald J Stouffer; tswetnam@ltrr.arizona.edu; Karl Taylor; claudia tebaldi; Joao P" "Teixeira; Simon Tett; Thomas A." "Tombrello; David Thompson; Lonnie Thompson; ELLEN THOMPSON; Peter" "Thorne; Mike Wallace; Bud Ward; David "Warrilow (GA)"; Warren Washington; Andrew Weaver; Michael Wehner; Frank Wentz; Penny" "Whetton; Dean N. Williams; Gordon Yano; Francis W. Zwiers; Erik M" "Conway; Sanjay Khanna; Graham Cogley; Jeffrey Kargel; W. Crawford Elliott; John Weyant; Anthony Janetos; Alison" "Sowden; Vernon Squire; Eric Garen; Peter Cross; Charles Zeller; Ian Murdock; Victoria A Arroyo; Rashida Leonard; Stephanie Fontenoy; John Collee; Sarah-jane Potts; Greg Dutton; ; Richard B. Rood; Brien Seeley; Mark Seeley; Oliver Morton; dh ; Cheryl H; Richard" "Somerville; Martin Heimann; Don Kennedy; Heidi Cullen; Shari Bell; Rebecca Bratspies; Pete Myers; Michael Oppenheimer; Naomi Oreskes; Boslough; Ben Santer; Tom Wigley; knutti@env.ethz.ch Subject: RE: response to Newsweek Date: Monday, May 31, 2010 11:09:09 PM ALL: Let me just add that while the piece in Newsweek is extremely annoying, and my general view is that such attacks should not go unanswered, I suggest not spending a large amount of time on it, such as group letters often take. A primary reason for pushing back on this sort of thing is to chasten and educate the journalists and editors responsible. Few of the original readers see the rejoinder. But Newsweek is no longer what it once was, and may not be around for long. Detailed letters don’t get printed anyway. There are lots of fires to put out, and this isn't necessarily the biggest. So it would be a better use of everyone's time if only one or two of this group, those who feel moved to do so, respond with a few sentences, individually. Michael Michael Oppenheimer Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs Department of Geosciences and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs Robertson Hall 448 Princeton University Princeton, NJ 08544 Tel: 609-258-2338 Fax: 609-258-6082 Website: http://www.princeton.edu/step/people/faculty/michael-oppenheimer/ -----Original Message----- From: Eric Steig [mailto:steig@uw.edu] Sent: Monday, May 31, 2010 9:06 PM To: Stephen H Schneider Cc: Gabi Hegerl; Mark B Boslough; trenbert@ucar.edu; Thomas Crowley; Dr. Krishna AchutaRao; Myles Allen; Natalia Andronova; Tim C Atkinson; Rick Anthes; Caspar Ammann; David C. Bader; Tim Barnett; Eric Barron; Graham' 'Bench; Pat Berge; George Boer; Celine J. W. Bonfils; James A.' 'Bono; James Boyle; Ray Bradley; Robin Bravender; Keith Briffa; Wolfgang Brueggemann; Lisa Butler; Ken Caldeira; Peter Caldwell; Dan Cayan; Peter U. Clark; Amy Clement; Nancy Cole; William Collins; Tina Conrad; Curtis Covey; birte dar; Davies Trevor Prof; Jay Davis; Tomas Diaz De La Rubia; Andrew Dessler; Michael' 'Dettinger; Phil Duffy; Paul J.' 'Ehlenbach; Kerry Emanuel; James Estes; Veronika' 'Eyring; David Fahey; Chris Field; Peter Foukal; Melissa Free; Julio Friedmann; Bill Fulkerson; Inez Fung; Jeff Garberson; PETER GENT; Nathan Gillett; peter gleckler; Bill Goldstein; Hal Graboske; Tom Guilderson; Leopold Haimberger; Alex Hall; James Hansen; harvey; Klaus Hasselmann; Susan Joy Hassol; Isaac Held; Bob Hirschfeld; Jeremy Hobbs; Dr. Elisabeth A. Holland; Greg Holland; Brian Hoskins; mhughes; James Hurrell; Ken Jackson; c jakob; Gardar Johannesson; Philip D. Jones; Helen Kang; Thomas R Karl; David Karoly; Jeffrey Kiehl; Steve Klein; Knutti Reto; John Lanzante; wily@ucar.edu; Ron Lehman; John lewis; Steven A. 'Lloyd (GSFC-610.2)[R S INFORMATION SYSTEMS INC]'; Jane Long; Janice Lough; mann; emaurer@scu.edu; Linda Mearns; carl mears; Jerry Meehl; Jerry Melillo; George Miller; Norman Miller; Art Mirin; John FB' 'Mitchell; Phil Mote; Neville Nicholls; Gerald R. North; Astrid E.J. Ogilvie; Stephanie Ohshita; Tim Osborn; Stu' 'Ostro; j palutikof; Joyce Penner; Thomas C Peterson; Tom Phillips; David Pierce; plattner@ipcc.unibe.ch; V. Ramaswamy; Veerabhadran' 'Ramanathan; Sarah Raper; Phil Rasch; Kathryn Rauhut; Doug Rotman; Terry L. Root; Robert 'Sausen, DLR'; jsanter; John Schellnhuber; David Schimel; Michael Schlesinger; Gavin Schmidt; Christina L. Schomer; Lynda Seaver; Dian J. Seidel; Ted Sheppard; s sherwood; Adrian Simmons; socci anthony; brian soden; Susan Solomon; Ken Sperber; Anne Stark; Thomas Stocker; Ronald J Stouffer; tswetnam@ltrr.arizona.edu; Karl Taylor; claudia tebaldi; Joao P' 'Teixeira; Simon Tett; Thomas A.' 'Tombrello; David Thompson; Lonnie Thompson; ELLEN THOMPSON; Peter' 'Thorne; Mike Wallace; Bud Ward; David 'Warrilow (GA)'; Warren Washington; Andrew Weaver; Michael Wehner; Frank Wentz; Penny' 'Whetton; Dean N. Williams; Gordon Yano; Francis W. Zwiers; Erik M' 'Conway; Sanjay Khanna; Graham Cogley; Jeffrey Kargel; W. Crawford Elliott; John Weyant; Anthony Janetos; Alison' 'Sowden; Vernon Squire; Eric Garen; Peter Cross; Charles Zeller; Ian Murdock; Victoria A Arroyo; Rashida Leonard; Stephanie Fontenoy; John Collee; Sarah-jane Potts; Greg Dutton; ; Richard B. Rood; Brien Seeley; Mark Seeley; Oliver Morton; Cheryl_H; Richard' 'Somerville; Martin Heimann; Don Kennedy; Heidi Cullen; Shari Bell; Rebecca Bratspies; Pete Myers; Michael Oppenheimer; Naomi Oreskes; Boslough; Ben Santer; Tom Wigley; knutti@env.ethz.ch Subject: Re: response to Newsweek Steve, I wholeheartedly agree of course. My point is mostly that we shouldn't bother responding in detail to this particular attack on scientists' credibility -- short of perhaps pointing out it is old, tired, and unsubstantiated. Since the editorial says that we are 'defensive' it is particularly important not to come across as defensive in this case. What I don't think is working though is continuously insist that 'we have done nothing wrong' (even though it is mostly true). Ok, enough from me. I'll be slicing up ice in the freezer at the National Ice Core Lab. (The Wall Street Journal had a 'nice' article today claiming that this work -- on the new 'WAIS Divide' ice core will solve the question of whether CO2 leads temperature or the reverse. Dick Lindzen and John Christy were the two 'experts' they interviewed. Hmm,. Eric Stephen H Schneider wrote: > Though I agree with that Eric, and we must always point out the best science as you rightly say, there is much social science literature that shows this will not by itself do much at all in the "out there" political debate. "Truth" wins in the end, but sometimes takes a generation or two to percolate into public consciousness and political action. I think it is a fact of life we had better not forget that political institutions and the mainstream media--broken institutions that they may be--are much more interested in "who can be trusted" than "what is the best science"--to be empirical, that framing of who to trust is ~80% of the questions I get from the media, congressional staff, etc, and I assure you it is hard work in these interviews for me to get them to re-frame their thinking to what is the science, and away from are the scientists trustworthy or any different in credibility from the "other side". > > Don't let us be naive about that--it is perception of the credibility of various claimants of "reality" that they focus on, not complex details dealing with the confidence we have in various scientific conclusions- -our "day job" at NAS, IPCC etc. Of course we should explain the science right and insist they not neglect it, but if we ignore the credibility perception issue altogether we will continue to fail to get a fair hearing and be mis-framed by those with no hesitation to spin for special interests or deep ideology-- and the media is very likely to continue to give them equal status at the table with us no matter how much we talk about peer reviewed science. Wish it weren't so, but in my too-long experience that is the bulk of it in the world of advocacy and spin out there, dislike it as many of us do, we have to know what is the process that frames the context of our work when it hits the public arena and make some adjustments in our accustomed style if we wish to have a > n impact. Lovely thing, this "real world"....but if we don't understand it it is hard to get effective attention in order to improve it. > > Cheers, Steve > > > Stephen H. Schneider > Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, > Professor, Department of Biology and > Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment > Mailing address: > Yang & Yamazaki Environment & Energy Building - MC 4205 > 473 Via Ortega > Ph: 650 725 9978 > F: 650 725 4387 > Websites: climatechange.net > patientfromhell.org > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Eric Steig" > To: "Stephen H Schneider" > Cc: "Gabi Hegerl" , "Mark B Boslough" , trenbert@ucar.edu, "Thomas Crowley" > , "Dr. Krishna AchutaRao" , "Myles Allen" , > "Natalia Andronova" , "Tim C Atkinson" , "Rick Anthes" , > "Caspar Ammann" , , "David C. Bader" , "Tim Barnett" > , "Eric Barron" , "Graham' 'Bench" , "Pat Berge" > , "George Boer" , "Celine J. W. Bonfils" , "James A.' 'Bono" > , "James Boyle" , "Ray Bradley" , "Robin Bravender" > , "Keith Briffa" , "Wolfgang Brueggemann" , "Lisa > Butler" , "Ken Caldeira" , "Peter Caldwell" , "Dan > Cayan" , "Peter U. Clark" , "Amy Clement" , "Nancy > Cole" , "William Collins" , "Tina Conrad" , "Curtis Covey" > , "birte dar" >, "Davies Trevor Prof" , "Jay Davis" > >, "Tomas Diaz De La Rubia" , "Andrew Dessler" , "Michael' > 'Dettinger" , "Phil Duffy" >, "Paul J.' 'Ehlenbach" > , "Kerry Emanuel" , "James Estes" , "Veronika' 'Eyring" > , "David Fahey" , "Chris Field" , "Peter > Foukal" < , "Melissa Free" , "Julio Friedmann" , "Bill > Fulkerson" , "Inez Fung" , "Jeff Garberson" , "PETER GENT" > , "Nathan Gillett" , "peter gleckler" , "Bill Goldstein" > , "Hal Graboske" , "Tom Guilderson" , "Leopold > Haimberger" , "Alex Hall" , "James Hansen" > , "harvey" , "Klaus Hasselmann" , "Susan Joy > Hassol" "Isaac Held" , "Bob Hirschfeld" , > "Jeremy Hobbs" , "Dr. Elisabeth A. Holland" , "Greg Holland" > , "Brian Hoskins" , "mhughes" , "James Hurrell" > , "Ken Jackson" , "c jakob" , "Gardar Johannesson" > , "Philip D. Jones" , "Helen Kang" , "Thomas R Karl" > , "David Karoly" , "Jeffrey Kiehl" , "Steve Klein" > , "Knutti Reto" , "John Lanzante" , > wily@ucar.edu, "Ron Lehman" , "John lewis" , "Steven A. 'Lloyd (GSFC-610.2)[R S > INFORMATION SYSTEMS INC]'" , "Jane Long" < >, "Janice Lough" > , "mann" , emaurer@scu.edu, "Linda Mearns" , "carl mears" > < , "Jerry Meehl" , "Jerry Melillo" , "George Miller" > , "Norman Miller" , "Art Mirin" , "John FB' 'Mitchell" > , "Phil Mote" , "Neville Nicholls" > , "Gerald R. North" , "Astrid E.J. Ogilvie" > , "Stephanie Ohshita" , "Tim Osborn" , "Stu' > 'Ostro" , "j palutikof" , "Joyce Penner" , > "Thomas C Peterson" , "Tom Phillips" , "David Pierce" > , plattner@ipcc.unibe.ch, "V. Ramaswamy" , "Veerabhadran' 'Ramanathan" > , "Sarah Raper" , "Phil Rasch" , "Kathryn Rauhut" > , "Doug Rotman" , "Terry L. Root" , "Robert 'Sausen, DLR'" > , "jsanter" >, "John Schellnhuber" , "David Schimel" > , "Michael Schlesinger" , "Gavin Schmidt" , > "Christina L. Schomer" , "Lynda Seaver" , "Dian J. Seidel" , > "Ted Sheppard" , "s sherwood" , "Adrian Simmons" , > "socci anthony" , "brian soden" , "Susan Solomon" < , > "Ken Sperber" , "Anne Stark" , "Thomas Stocker" , "Ronald J > Stouffer" , tswetnam@ltrr.arizona.edu, "Karl Taylor" , "claudia tebaldi" > , "Joao P' 'Teixeira" , "Simon Tett" , > "Thomas A.' 'Tombrello" , "David Thompson" , "Lonnie Thompson" > , "ELLEN THOMPSON" , "Peter' 'Thorne" , "Mike > Wallace" , "Bud Ward" < , "David 'Warrilow (GA)'" > , "Warren Washington" , "Andrew Weaver" , "Michael > Wehner" , "Frank Wentz" >, "Penny' 'Whetton" , "Dean N. > Williams" , "Gordon Yano" , "Francis W. Zwiers" , "Erik M' > 'Conway" , "Sanjay Khanna" , "Graham Cogley" , > "Jeffrey Kargel" < >, "W. Crawford Elliott" , "John Weyant" > , "Anthony Janetos" , "Alison' 'Sowden" , "Vernon > Squire" , "Eric Garen" , "Peter Cross" "Charles > Zeller" "Ian Murdock" >, "Victoria A Arroyo" , > "Rashida Leonard" , "Stephanie Fontenoy" "John Collee" > , "Sarah-jane Potts" , "Greg Dutton" > , "Richard B. Rood" , "Brien Seeley" "Mark Seeley" > , "Oliver Morton" "Cheryl_H" > < "Richard' 'Somerville" , "Martin Heimann" , > "Don Kennedy" , "Heidi Cullen" "Shari Bell" > , "Rebecca Bratspies" , "Pete Myers" < , > "Michael Oppenheimer" , "Naomi Oreskes" , "Boslough" , "Ben > Santer" , "Tom Wigley" , knutti@env.ethz.ch > Sent: Monday, May 31, 2010 2:44:22 PM > Subject: Re: response to Newsweek > > All > > Let me just reiterate that in my view the most powerful response to > Newsweek would be one that doesn't even address the attacks on the > integrity of scientists, but merely -- and forcefully-- points out how > wrong the article was about the scientific facts. > > Eric > > > > > Stephen H Schneider wrote: > >> Thanks Gabi, hi all. I agree that low climate sensitivity values hard >> to defend empirically and new work of my just-graduated PhD student, >> Carolyn Snyder, using her new compilation of spatially distributed >> time series of >500,000 years of "continuous" paleo data scaled to >> various forcings over time, finds just what Gabi said--very little >> likelihood of stretched left hand tail and smallish but still >> concenring possibility of fat right hand tail. Alot depends on how you >> define climate sensitivity--that is including as internal dynamics >> slow processes like ice sheet changes (moves CS distribution to bigger >> numbers typically to have so-called "full" climate sensitivity) or >> simply accounting for ice sheet changes as external radiative forcing >> varying over time. Can't say more until we get it through review at >> journals with embargoes--a behavior which I hate, but what can we do?? >> >> As to Newsweek, I already took Eric's suggestion to heart and emailed >> a reporter there I know well who amazingly enough is a specialist in >> environment and hasn't been sacked yet! I complained about falsely >> framed editorial about scientific credibility loss and asked if she >> could help us with an inside track to get a rebuttal. Will let you >> know when she responds. I won't paste in to this list what I said in >> private to the reporter, because I worry about our "private" emails >> being surreptitiously obtained and the usual forces of deception >> quoting bits out of context on their blog sites--a favorite past time >> for some of them. If anyone is interested email me privately. >> >> Cheers, Steve >> >> PS to Tom W.--I fully agree with your point about the 17% in the tails >> of the CS distribution, but isn't the number really a range: 5-17%, >> since "likely" in IPCC uncertainties guidance language last time had a >> table showing that the next category, "very likely" is >90%, so >> "likely" is 66-90% estimate--ergo the 5-17% range ("very unlikely" to >> "unlikely" are the agreed words for this range, not "cannot be >> excluded"). It is a trifle of language, primarily, but I wanted to >> clarify that there is consistent language for future use. >> >> >> Stephen H. Schneider >> Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental >> Studies, Professor, Department of Biology and >> Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment >> Mailing address: >> Yang & Yamazaki Environment & Energy Building - MC 4205 >> 473 Via Ortega >> Ph: 650 725 9978 >> F: 650 725 4387 >> Websites: climatechange.net >> patientfromhell.org >> >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: "Gabi Hegerl" >> To: "Tom Wigley" , knutti@env.ethz.ch >> Cc: "Eric Steig" , "Mark B Boslough" >> , trenbert@ucar.edu, "Thomas Crowley" >> , "Dr. Krishna AchutaRao" >> , "Myles Allen" , >> "Natalia Andronova" , "Tim C Atkinson" >> , "Rick Anthes" , >> "Caspar Ammann" , , "David C. >> Bader" , "Tim Barnett" >> , "Eric Barron" , "Graham' >> 'Bench" , "Pat Berge" >> , "George Boer" , "Celine J. W. >> Bonfils" , "James A.' 'Bono" >> , "James Boyle" , "Ray Bradley" >> , "Robin Bravender" >> , "Keith Briffa" , >> "Wolfgang Brueggemann" , "Lisa >> Butler" , "Ken Caldeira" >> , "Peter Caldwell" , >> "Dan Cayan" , "Peter U. Clark" >> , "Amy Clement" , >> "Nancy Cole" >, "William Collins" >> , "Tina Conrad" , "Curtis >> Covey" , "birte dar" , "Davies >> Trevor Prof" , "Jay Davis" >> , "Tomas Diaz De La Rubia" , >> "Andrew Dessler" , "Michael' >> 'Dettinger" , "Phil Duffy" >> , "Paul J.' 'Ehlenbach" >> , "Kerry Emanuel" , >> "James Estes" , "Veronika' 'Eyring" >> , "David Fahey" , >> "Chris Field" , "Peter >> Foukal" < >, "Melissa Free" >> , "Julio Friedmann" , >> "Bill Fulkerson" , "Inez Fung" , >> "Jeff Garberson" >, "PETER GENT" >> , "Nathan Gillett" , "peter >> gleckler" , "Bill Goldstein" >> , "Hal Graboske" , "Tom >> Guilderson" , "Leopold >> Haimberger" , "Alex Hall" >> , "James Hansen" >> , "harvey" , "Klaus >> Hasselmann" , "Susan Joy >> Hassol" < >, "Isaac Held" >> , "Bob Hirschfeld" , >> "Jeremy Hobbs" < , "Dr. Elisabeth >> A. Holland" , "Greg Holland" >> , "Brian Hoskins" , >> "mhughes" , "James Hurrell" >> , "Ken Jackson" , "c jakob" >> , "Gardar Johannesson" >> , "Philip D. Jones" , "Helen >> Kang" , "Thomas R Karl" >> , "David Karoly" , >> "Jeffrey Kiehl" , "Steve Klein" >> , "Knutti Reto" , >> "John Lanzante" , >> wily@ucar.edu, "Ron Lehman" , "John lewis" >> , "Steven A. 'Lloyd (GSFC-610.2)[R S >> INFORMATION SYSTEMS INC]'" , "Jane Long" >> , "Janice Lough" >> , "mann" , emaurer@scu.edu, "Linda >> Mearns" , "carl mears" >> < >, "Jerry Meehl" , "Jerry Melillo" >> , "George Miller" >> , "Norman Miller" , "Art Mirin" >> , "John FB' 'Mitchell" >> >, "Phil Mote" >> , "Neville Nicholls" >> , "Gerald R. North" >> , "Astrid E.J. Ogilvie" >> , "Stephanie Ohshita" >> , "Tim Osborn" , "Stu' >> 'Ostro" >, "j palutikof" >> , "Joyce Penner" , >> "Thomas C Peterson" , "Tom Phillips" >> , "David Pierce" >> , plattner@ipcc.unibe.ch, "V. Ramaswamy" >> , "Veerabhadran' 'Ramanathan" >> , "Sarah Raper" , "Phil >> Rasch" , "Kathryn Rauhut" >> , "Doug Rotman" , "Terry L. Root" >> , "Robert 'Sausen, DLR'" >> , "jsanter" , "John >> Schellnhuber" , "David Schimel" >> , "Michael Schlesinger" , >> "Gavin Schmidt" , >> "Christina L. Schomer" , "Lynda Seaver" >> , "Dian J. Seidel" , >> "Ted Sheppard" , "s sherwood" >> , "Adrian Simmons" , >> "socci anthony" , "brian soden" >> , "Susan Solomon" < , >> "Ken Sperber" , "Anne Stark" , >> "Thomas Stocker" , "Ronald J >> Stouffer" , tswetnam@ltrr.arizona.edu, "Karl >> Taylor" , "claudia tebaldi" >> < , "Joao P' 'Teixeira" >> , "Simon Tett" , >> "Thomas A.' 'Tombrello" , "David Thompson" >> , "Lonnie Thompson" >> , "ELLEN THOMPSON" , "Peter' >> 'Thorne" , "Mike >> Wallace" , "Bud Ward" >> "David 'Warrilow (GA)'" >> , "Warren Washington" , >> "Andrew Weaver" , "Michael >> Wehner" , "Frank Wentz" >> "Penny' 'Whetton" , "Dean N. >> Williams" , "Gordon Yano" , >> "Francis W. Zwiers" , "Erik M' >> 'Conway" , "Sanjay Khanna" >> , "Graham Cogley" , >> "Jeffrey Kargel" < >, "W. Crawford Elliott" >> , "John Weyant" >> , "Anthony Janetos" , >> "Alison' 'Sowden" , "Vernon >> Squire" , "Eric Garen" >> "Peter Cross" >, "Charles >> Zeller" >, "Ian Murdock" , >> "Victoria A Arroyo" , >> "Rashida Leonard" , "Stephanie Fontenoy" "John Collee" "Sarah-jane Potts" >> , "Greg Dutton" >> "Richard B. Rood" , "Brien >> Seeley" , "Mark Seeley" >> , "Oliver Morton" >> , "Cheryl_H" >> , "Richard' 'Somerville" , >> "Martin Heimann" , >> "Don Kennedy" , "Heidi Cullen" >> < >, "Shari Bell" >> >, "Rebecca Bratspies" >> , "Pete Myers" , >> "Michael Oppenheimer" , "Naomi Oreskes" >> , "Boslough" , "Ben >> Santer" , "Stephen H Schneider" >> Sent: Monday, May 31, 2010 1:51:29 PM >> Subject: Re: response to Newsweek >> >> I agree with Tom, it is very important to point out that the >> uncertainties are very different at the upper and lower tail. The >> lower tail is quite well constrained. There are a large number of >> studies, from modelling, and from observed evidence from deep time >> through LGM through last mill through the 20th century that show that >> a low (eg lower than 1.5) climate sensitivity is very difficult to >> reconcile with the data. Evidence from so many sources is stronger >> than individual lines. there have been occasional papers claiming >> lower sensitivities, but those made errors that were clear to spot, >> and in some cases for example, led to the (known) climate sensitivity >> of models to be crassly underestimated when applied to climate model >> data. Reto (cc'ed) and I summed up the evidence in a review paper in >> nature geoscience in fall 2008, which also discusses some recent low >> estimates (attached). >> The IPCC AR4 estimate nor that paper was estimate was trying to >> formally combine different lines of evidence into stronger overall >> evidence - if that were done, the constraints would be quite a bit >> stronger, but it is not straightforward to do and we worried about >> remaining errors being difficult to estimate. what this says is that >> the present estimate could be considered quite conservative. >> >> Gabi >> >> Quoting Tom Wigley : >> >> >> >>> I agree. >>> >>> But let us not propagate the error in the Economist. Here is a para >>> from a report of mine. The reference cited is in Climatic Change if a >>> published source is required. >>> >>> ----- >>> >>> The uncertainty in the climate sensitivity has been specified in the >>> IPCC AR4. The best estimate value is ?T2x = 3.0oC, and the likely >>> (68% C.I.) range is 2.0 to 4.5oC. In other words, there is a 17% >>> chance that ?T2x is less than 2.0oC, and a 17% chance that it is >>> greater than 4.5oC. The uncertainty distribution is therefore skewed >>> with a longer ‘tail’ at high values than at low values. If one >>> assumes this distribution is lognormal, then it is easy to calculate >>> the 90% C.I. (see Wigley et al., 2009) – which comes to 1.5 to >>> 6.0oC. There is, therefore, if one accepts the IPCC likely range, a >>> 5% chance that the sensitivity is more than 6.0oC (or less than >>> 1.5oC). >>> >>> ----- >>> >>> Tom. >>> >>> ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ >>> >>> Eric Steig wrote: >>> >>> >>>> Dear All, >>>> >>>> I think that a group of scientists in the U.S. really needs to >>>> write a good response to the egregious editorial in Newsweek. >>>> >>>> http://www.newsweek.com/2010/05/28/uncertain-science.html >>>> >>>> Both individual letters or a letter signed by dozens of scientists >>>> might be considered. It would be especially good if this did not >>>> come from people associated with RealClimate, which is too often >>>> the only widely-known counterpoint to these sorts of things. >>>> >>>> I would argue that the point of the letter would not be once again >>>> to defend scientists' integrity, important as that may be. >>>> >>>> Rather, the letter should focus on the key scientific point, which >>>> is correcting what is said in the Newsweek article about climate >>>> sensitivity. In effect, Newsweek says that our knowledge of >>>> climate sensitivity is 'no longer certain' and that we can >>>> therefore not justify cutting fossil fuel use on this basis (!). >>>> >>>> The point to make here -- at least in my view -- is that 1) the >>>> uncertainties were already clear in the IPCC report, and they have >>>> not changed and that 2) none of the recent political shenanigans >>>> have have changed our estimates of climate sensitivity. >>>> >>>> You might borrow from the excellent article in the Economist, which >>>> sums up the point this way: >>>> >>>> "...the sensitivity to a doubling of carbon dioxide of less than >>>> 1.5ºC ... has perhaps one chance in ten of being correct. But if >>>> the IPCC were underestimating things by a factor of five or so, >>>> that would still leave only a 50:50 chance of ...a desirable >>>> outcome. The fact that the uncertainties allow you to construct a >>>> relatively benign future does not allow you to ignore futures in >>>> which climate change is large, and in some of which it is very >>>> dangerous indeed." >>>>

ALL: Let me just add that while the piece in Newsweek is extremely annoying, and my general view ...

Similar ALL: Let me just add that while the piece in Newsweek is extremely annoying, and my general view ...