ALL: Let me just add that while the piece in Newsweek is extremely annoying, and my general view ...

351 Pages·2012·4.58 MB·English

From: Michael Oppenheimer
To: Eric Steig; Stephen H Schneider
Cc: Gabi Hegerl; Mark B Boslough; [email protected]; Thomas Crowley; Dr. Krishna AchutaRao; Myles Allen;
Natalia Andronova; Tim C Atkinson; Rick Anthes; Caspar Ammann; David C. Bader; Tim
Barnett; Eric Barron; Graham" "Bench; Pat Berge; George Boer; Celine J. W. Bonfils; James A." "Bono; James
Boyle; Ray Bradley; Robin Bravender; Keith Briffa; Wolfgang Brueggemann; Lisa Butler; Ken Caldeira; Peter
Caldwell; Dan Cayan; Peter U. Clark; Amy Clement; Nancy Cole; William Collins; Tina Conrad; Curtis Covey;
birte dar; Davies Trevor Prof; Jay Davis; Tomas Diaz De La Rubia; Andrew Dessler; Michael" "Dettinger; Phil
Duffy; Paul J." "Ehlenbach; Kerry Emanuel; James Estes; Veronika" "Eyring; David Fahey; Chris Field; Peter
Foukal; Melissa Free; Julio Friedmann; Bill Fulkerson; Inez Fung; Jeff Garberson; PETER GENT; Nathan Gillett;
peter gleckler; Bill Goldstein; Hal Graboske; Tom Guilderson; Leopold Haimberger; Alex Hall; James Hansen;
harvey; Klaus Hasselmann; Susan Joy Hassol; Isaac Held; Bob Hirschfeld; Jeremy Hobbs; Dr. Elisabeth A.
Holland; Greg Holland; Brian Hoskins; mhughes; James Hurrell; Ken Jackson; c jakob; Gardar Johannesson;
Philip D. Jones; Helen Kang; Thomas R Karl; David Karoly; Jeffrey Kiehl; Steve Klein; Knutti Reto; John
Lanzante; [email protected]; Ron Lehman; John lewis; Steven A. "Lloyd (GSFC-610.2)[R S INFORMATION
SYSTEMS INC]"; Jane Long; Janice Lough; mann; [email protected]; Linda Mearns; carl mears; Jerry Meehl;
Jerry Melillo; George Miller; Norman Miller; Art Mirin; John FB" "Mitchell; Phil Mote; Neville Nicholls; Gerald R.
North; Astrid E.J. Ogilvie; Stephanie Ohshita; Tim Osborn; Stu" "Ostro; j palutikof; Joyce Penner; Thomas C
Peterson; Tom Phillips; David Pierce; [email protected]; V. Ramaswamy; Veerabhadran" "Ramanathan;
Sarah Raper; Phil Rasch; Kathryn Rauhut; Doug Rotman; Terry L. Root; Robert "Sausen, DLR"; jsanter; John
Schellnhuber; David Schimel; Michael Schlesinger; Gavin Schmidt; Christina L. Schomer; Lynda Seaver; Dian J.
Seidel; Ted Sheppard; s sherwood; Adrian Simmons; socci anthony; brian soden; Susan Solomon; Ken
Sperber; Anne Stark; Thomas Stocker; Ronald J Stouffer; [email protected]; Karl Taylor; claudia
tebaldi; Joao P" "Teixeira; Simon Tett; Thomas A." "Tombrello; David Thompson; Lonnie Thompson; ELLEN
THOMPSON; Peter" "Thorne; Mike Wallace; Bud Ward; David "Warrilow (GA)"; Warren Washington; Andrew
Weaver; Michael Wehner; Frank Wentz; Penny" "Whetton; Dean N. Williams; Gordon Yano; Francis W. Zwiers;
Erik M" "Conway; Sanjay Khanna; Graham Cogley; Jeffrey Kargel; W. Crawford Elliott; John Weyant; Anthony
Janetos; Alison" "Sowden; Vernon Squire; Eric Garen; Peter Cross; Charles Zeller; Ian Murdock; Victoria A
Arroyo; Rashida Leonard; Stephanie Fontenoy; John Collee; Sarah-jane Potts; Greg Dutton;
; Richard B. Rood; Brien Seeley; Mark Seeley; Oliver Morton; dh ;
Cheryl H; Richard" "Somerville; Martin Heimann; Don Kennedy; Heidi Cullen; Shari Bell;
Rebecca Bratspies; Pete Myers; Michael Oppenheimer; Naomi Oreskes; Boslough; Ben Santer; Tom Wigley;
[email protected]
Subject: RE: response to Newsweek
Date: Monday, May 31, 2010 11:09:09 PM
ALL:
Let me just add that while the piece in Newsweek is extremely annoying, and my general view is that
such attacks should not go unanswered, I suggest not spending a large amount of time on it, such as
group letters often take. A primary reason for pushing back on this sort of thing is to chasten and
educate the journalists and editors responsible. Few of the original readers see the rejoinder. But
Newsweek is no longer what it once was, and may not be around for long. Detailed letters don’t get
printed anyway. There are lots of fires to put out, and this isn't necessarily the biggest.
So it would be a better use of everyone's time if only one or two of this group, those who feel moved
to do so, respond with a few sentences, individually.
Michael
Michael Oppenheimer
Albert G. Milbank Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs
Department of Geosciences and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Robertson Hall 448
Princeton University
Princeton, NJ 08544
Tel: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
Website:
http://www.princeton.edu/step/people/faculty/michael-oppenheimer/
-----Original Message-----
From: Eric Steig [mailto:[email protected]]
Sent: Monday, May 31, 2010 9:06 PM
To: Stephen H Schneider
Cc: Gabi Hegerl; Mark B Boslough; [email protected]; Thomas Crowley; Dr. Krishna AchutaRao; Myles
Allen; Natalia Andronova; Tim C Atkinson; Rick Anthes; Caspar Ammann; David
C. Bader; Tim Barnett; Eric Barron; Graham' 'Bench; Pat Berge; George Boer; Celine J. W. Bonfils; James
A.' 'Bono; James Boyle; Ray Bradley; Robin Bravender; Keith Briffa; Wolfgang Brueggemann; Lisa
Butler; Ken Caldeira; Peter Caldwell; Dan Cayan; Peter U. Clark; Amy Clement; Nancy Cole; William
Collins; Tina Conrad; Curtis Covey; birte dar; Davies Trevor Prof; Jay Davis; Tomas Diaz De La Rubia;
Andrew Dessler; Michael' 'Dettinger; Phil Duffy; Paul J.' 'Ehlenbach; Kerry Emanuel; James Estes;
Veronika' 'Eyring; David Fahey; Chris Field; Peter Foukal; Melissa Free; Julio Friedmann; Bill Fulkerson;
Inez Fung; Jeff Garberson; PETER GENT; Nathan Gillett; peter gleckler; Bill Goldstein; Hal Graboske;
Tom Guilderson; Leopold Haimberger; Alex Hall; James Hansen; harvey; Klaus Hasselmann; Susan Joy
Hassol; Isaac Held; Bob Hirschfeld; Jeremy Hobbs; Dr. Elisabeth A. Holland; Greg Holland; Brian
Hoskins; mhughes; James Hurrell; Ken Jackson; c jakob; Gardar Johannesson; Philip D. Jones; Helen
Kang; Thomas R Karl; David Karoly; Jeffrey Kiehl; Steve Klein; Knutti Reto; John Lanzante;
[email protected]; Ron Lehman; John lewis; Steven A. 'Lloyd (GSFC-610.2)[R S INFORMATION SYSTEMS
INC]'; Jane Long; Janice Lough; mann; [email protected]; Linda Mearns; carl mears; Jerry Meehl; Jerry
Melillo; George Miller; Norman Miller; Art Mirin; John FB' 'Mitchell; Phil Mote; Neville Nicholls; Gerald R.
North; Astrid E.J. Ogilvie; Stephanie Ohshita; Tim Osborn; Stu' 'Ostro; j palutikof; Joyce Penner; Thomas
C Peterson; Tom Phillips; David Pierce; [email protected]; V. Ramaswamy; Veerabhadran'
'Ramanathan; Sarah Raper; Phil Rasch; Kathryn Rauhut; Doug Rotman; Terry L. Root; Robert 'Sausen,
DLR'; jsanter; John Schellnhuber; David Schimel; Michael Schlesinger; Gavin Schmidt; Christina L.
Schomer; Lynda Seaver; Dian J. Seidel; Ted Sheppard; s sherwood; Adrian Simmons; socci anthony;
brian soden; Susan Solomon; Ken Sperber; Anne Stark; Thomas Stocker; Ronald J Stouffer;
[email protected]; Karl Taylor; claudia tebaldi; Joao P' 'Teixeira; Simon Tett; Thomas A.'
'Tombrello; David Thompson; Lonnie Thompson; ELLEN THOMPSON; Peter' 'Thorne; Mike Wallace; Bud
Ward; David 'Warrilow (GA)'; Warren Washington; Andrew Weaver; Michael Wehner; Frank Wentz;
Penny' 'Whetton; Dean N. Williams; Gordon Yano; Francis W. Zwiers; Erik M' 'Conway; Sanjay Khanna;
Graham Cogley; Jeffrey Kargel; W. Crawford Elliott; John Weyant; Anthony Janetos; Alison' 'Sowden;
Vernon Squire; Eric Garen; Peter Cross; Charles Zeller; Ian Murdock; Victoria A Arroyo; Rashida Leonard;
Stephanie Fontenoy; John Collee; Sarah-jane Potts; Greg Dutton; ; Richard B.
Rood; Brien Seeley; Mark Seeley; Oliver Morton; Cheryl_H;
Richard' 'Somerville; Martin Heimann; Don Kennedy; Heidi Cullen; Shari Bell; Rebecca Bratspies; Pete
Myers; Michael Oppenheimer; Naomi Oreskes; Boslough; Ben Santer; Tom Wigley; [email protected]
Subject: Re: response to Newsweek
Steve,
I wholeheartedly agree of course. My point is mostly that we shouldn't
bother responding in detail to this particular attack on scientists'
credibility -- short of perhaps pointing out it is old, tired, and
unsubstantiated. Since the editorial says that we are 'defensive' it is
particularly important not to come across as defensive in this case.
What I don't think is working though is continuously insist that 'we
have done nothing wrong' (even though it is mostly true).
Ok, enough from me. I'll be slicing up ice in the freezer at the
National Ice Core Lab. (The Wall Street Journal had a 'nice' article
today claiming that this work -- on the new 'WAIS Divide' ice core will
solve the question of whether CO2 leads temperature or the reverse.
Dick Lindzen and John Christy were the two 'experts' they interviewed.
Hmm,.
Eric
Stephen H Schneider wrote:
> Though I agree with that Eric, and we must always point out the best science as you rightly say,
there is much social science literature that shows this will not by itself do much at all in the "out there"
political debate. "Truth" wins in the end, but sometimes takes a generation or two to percolate into
public consciousness and political action. I think it is a fact of life we had better not forget that political
institutions and the mainstream media--broken institutions that they may be--are much more interested
in "who can be trusted" than "what is the best science"--to be empirical, that framing of who to trust is
~80% of the questions I get from the media, congressional staff, etc, and I assure you it is hard work
in these interviews for me to get them to re-frame their thinking to what is the science, and away from
are the scientists trustworthy or any different in credibility from the "other side".
>
> Don't let us be naive about that--it is perception of the credibility of various claimants of "reality" that
they focus on, not complex details dealing with the confidence we have in various scientific conclusions-
-our "day job" at NAS, IPCC etc. Of course we should explain the science right and insist they not
neglect it, but if we ignore the credibility perception issue altogether we will continue to fail to get a fair
hearing and be mis-framed by those with no hesitation to spin for special interests or deep ideology--
and the media is very likely to continue to give them equal status at the table with us no matter how
much we talk about peer reviewed science. Wish it weren't so, but in my too-long experience that is the
bulk of it in the world of advocacy and spin out there, dislike it as many of us do, we have to know
what is the process that frames the context of our work when it hits the public arena and make some
adjustments in our accustomed style if we wish to have a
> n impact. Lovely thing, this "real world"....but if we don't understand it it is hard to get effective
attention in order to improve it.
>
> Cheers, Steve
>
>
> Stephen H. Schneider
> Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies,
> Professor, Department of Biology and
> Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment
> Mailing address:
> Yang & Yamazaki Environment & Energy Building - MC 4205
> 473 Via Ortega
> Ph: 650 725 9978
> F: 650 725 4387
> Websites: climatechange.net
> patientfromhell.org
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Eric Steig" <[email protected]>
> To: "Stephen H Schneider" <[email protected]>
> Cc: "Gabi Hegerl" <[email protected]>, "Mark B Boslough" <[email protected]>,
[email protected], "Thomas Crowley"
> <[email protected]>, "Dr. Krishna AchutaRao" <[email protected]>, "Myles Allen"
<[email protected]>,
> "Natalia Andronova" <[email protected]>, "Tim C Atkinson" <[email protected]>, "Rick Anthes"
<[email protected]>,
> "Caspar Ammann" <[email protected]>, , "David C. Bader"
<[email protected]>, "Tim Barnett"
> <[email protected]>, "Eric Barron" <[email protected]>, "Graham' 'Bench" <[email protected]>,
"Pat Berge"
> <[email protected]>, "George Boer" <[email protected]>, "Celine J. W. Bonfils"
<[email protected]>, "James A.' 'Bono"
> <[email protected]>, "James Boyle" <[email protected]>, "Ray Bradley" <[email protected]>,
"Robin Bravender"
> , "Keith Briffa" <[email protected]>, "Wolfgang Brueggemann"
<[email protected]>, "Lisa
> Butler" <[email protected]>, "Ken Caldeira" <[email protected]>, "Peter Caldwell"
<[email protected]>, "Dan
> Cayan" <[email protected]>, "Peter U. Clark" <[email protected]>, "Amy Clement"
<[email protected]>, "Nancy
> Cole" , "William Collins" <[email protected]>, "Tina Conrad"
<[email protected]>, "Curtis Covey"
> <[email protected]>, "birte dar" >, "Davies Trevor Prof"
<[email protected]>, "Jay Davis"
> >, "Tomas Diaz De La Rubia" <[email protected]>, "Andrew Dessler"
<[email protected]>, "Michael'
> 'Dettinger" <[email protected]>, "Phil Duffy" >, "Paul J.' 'Ehlenbach"
> <[email protected]>, "Kerry Emanuel" <[email protected]>, "James Estes"
<[email protected]>, "Veronika' 'Eyring"
> <[email protected]>, "David Fahey" <[email protected]>, "Chris Field"
<[email protected]>, "Peter
> Foukal" < , "Melissa Free" <[email protected]>, "Julio Friedmann"
<[email protected]>, "Bill
> Fulkerson" <[email protected]>, "Inez Fung" <[email protected]>, "Jeff Garberson"
, "PETER GENT"
> <[email protected]>, "Nathan Gillett" <[email protected]>, "peter gleckler" <[email protected]>,
"Bill Goldstein"
> <[email protected]>, "Hal Graboske" <[email protected]>, "Tom Guilderson"
<[email protected]>, "Leopold
> Haimberger" <[email protected]>, "Alex Hall" <[email protected]>, "James
Hansen"
> <[email protected]>, "harvey" <[email protected]>, "Klaus Hasselmann"
<[email protected]>, "Susan Joy
> Hassol" "Isaac Held" <[email protected]>, "Bob Hirschfeld"
<[email protected]>,
> "Jeremy Hobbs" , "Dr. Elisabeth A. Holland"
<[email protected]>, "Greg Holland"
> <[email protected]>, "Brian Hoskins" <[email protected]>, "mhughes"
<[email protected]>, "James Hurrell"
> <[email protected]>, "Ken Jackson" <[email protected]>, "c jakob" <[email protected]>,
"Gardar Johannesson"
> <[email protected]>, "Philip D. Jones" <[email protected]>, "Helen Kang" <[email protected]>,
"Thomas R Karl"
> <[email protected]>, "David Karoly" <[email protected]>, "Jeffrey Kiehl"
<[email protected]>, "Steve Klein"
> <[email protected]>, "Knutti Reto" <[email protected]>, "John Lanzante"
<[email protected]>,
> [email protected], "Ron Lehman" <[email protected]>, "John lewis" <[email protected]>, "Steven A.
'Lloyd (GSFC-610.2)[R S
> INFORMATION SYSTEMS INC]'" <[email protected]>, "Jane Long" < >,
"Janice Lough"
> <[email protected]>, "mann" <[email protected]>, [email protected], "Linda Mearns"
<[email protected]>, "carl mears"
> < , "Jerry Meehl" <[email protected]>, "Jerry Melillo" <[email protected]>,
"George Miller"
> <[email protected]>, "Norman Miller" <[email protected]>, "Art Mirin" <[email protected]>, "John FB'
'Mitchell"
> , "Phil Mote" <[email protected]>, "Neville Nicholls"
> <[email protected]>, "Gerald R. North" <[email protected]>, "Astrid E.J. Ogilvie"
> <[email protected]>, "Stephanie Ohshita" <[email protected]>, "Tim Osborn"
<[email protected]>, "Stu'
> 'Ostro" , "j palutikof" <[email protected]>, "Joyce Penner"
<[email protected]>,
> "Thomas C Peterson" <[email protected]>, "Tom Phillips" <[email protected]>, "David
Pierce"
> <[email protected]>, [email protected], "V. Ramaswamy" <[email protected]>,
"Veerabhadran' 'Ramanathan"
> <[email protected]>, "Sarah Raper" <[email protected]>, "Phil Rasch"
<[email protected]>, "Kathryn Rauhut"
> <[email protected]>, "Doug Rotman" <[email protected]>, "Terry L. Root" <[email protected]>,
"Robert 'Sausen, DLR'"
> <[email protected]>, "jsanter" >, "John Schellnhuber" <john@pik-
potsdam.de>, "David Schimel"
> <[email protected]>, "Michael Schlesinger" <[email protected]>, "Gavin Schmidt"
<[email protected]>,
> "Christina L. Schomer" <[email protected]>, "Lynda Seaver" <[email protected]>, "Dian J. Seidel"
<[email protected]>,
> "Ted Sheppard" <[email protected]>, "s sherwood" <[email protected]>, "Adrian
Simmons" <[email protected]>,
> "socci anthony" <[email protected]>, "brian soden" <[email protected]>, "Susan
Solomon" < ,
> "Ken Sperber" <[email protected]>, "Anne Stark" <[email protected]>, "Thomas Stocker"
<[email protected]>, "Ronald J
> Stouffer" <[email protected]>, [email protected], "Karl Taylor" <[email protected]>,
"claudia tebaldi"
> , "Joao P' 'Teixeira" <[email protected]>, "Simon Tett"
<[email protected]>,
> "Thomas A.' 'Tombrello" <[email protected]>, "David Thompson" <[email protected]>,
"Lonnie Thompson"
> <[email protected]>, "ELLEN THOMPSON" <[email protected]>, "Peter' 'Thorne"
<[email protected]>, "Mike
> Wallace" <[email protected]>, "Bud Ward" < , "David 'Warrilow
(GA)'"
> <[email protected]>, "Warren Washington" <[email protected]>, "Andrew Weaver"
<[email protected]>, "Michael
> Wehner" <[email protected]>, "Frank Wentz" >, "Penny' 'Whetton"
<[email protected]>, "Dean N.
> Williams" <[email protected]>, "Gordon Yano" <[email protected]>, "Francis W. Zwiers"
<[email protected]>, "Erik M'
> 'Conway" <[email protected]>, "Sanjay Khanna" <[email protected]>, "Graham
Cogley" <[email protected]>,
> "Jeffrey Kargel" < >, "W. Crawford Elliott" <[email protected]>,
"John Weyant"
> <[email protected]>, "Anthony Janetos" <[email protected]>, "Alison' 'Sowden"
, "Vernon
> Squire" <[email protected]>, "Eric Garen" , "Peter Cross"
"Charles
> Zeller" "Ian Murdock" >, "Victoria A Arroyo"
<[email protected]>,
> "Rashida Leonard" <[email protected]>, "Stephanie Fontenoy"
"John Collee"
> , "Sarah-jane Potts" , "Greg Dutton"
> , "Richard B. Rood" <[email protected]>, "Brien Seeley"
"Mark Seeley"
> <[email protected]>, "Oliver Morton"
"Cheryl_H"
> < "Richard' 'Somerville" <[email protected]>, "Martin Heimann"
<[email protected]>,
> "Don Kennedy" <[email protected]>, "Heidi Cullen" "Shari Bell"
> , "Rebecca Bratspies" <[email protected]>, "Pete Myers"
< ,
> "Michael Oppenheimer" <[email protected]>, "Naomi Oreskes" <[email protected]>,
"Boslough" <[email protected]>, "Ben
> Santer" <[email protected]>, "Tom Wigley" <[email protected]>, [email protected]
> Sent: Monday, May 31, 2010 2:44:22 PM
> Subject: Re: response to Newsweek
>
> All
>
> Let me just reiterate that in my view the most powerful response to
> Newsweek would be one that doesn't even address the attacks on the
> integrity of scientists, but merely -- and forcefully-- points out how
> wrong the article was about the scientific facts.
>
> Eric
>
>
>
>
> Stephen H Schneider wrote:
>
>> Thanks Gabi, hi all. I agree that low climate sensitivity values hard
>> to defend empirically and new work of my just-graduated PhD student,
>> Carolyn Snyder, using her new compilation of spatially distributed
>> time series of >500,000 years of "continuous" paleo data scaled to
>> various forcings over time, finds just what Gabi said--very little
>> likelihood of stretched left hand tail and smallish but still
>> concenring possibility of fat right hand tail. Alot depends on how you
>> define climate sensitivity--that is including as internal dynamics
>> slow processes like ice sheet changes (moves CS distribution to bigger
>> numbers typically to have so-called "full" climate sensitivity) or
>> simply accounting for ice sheet changes as external radiative forcing
>> varying over time. Can't say more until we get it through review at
>> journals with embargoes--a behavior which I hate, but what can we do??
>>
>> As to Newsweek, I already took Eric's suggestion to heart and emailed
>> a reporter there I know well who amazingly enough is a specialist in
>> environment and hasn't been sacked yet! I complained about falsely
>> framed editorial about scientific credibility loss and asked if she
>> could help us with an inside track to get a rebuttal. Will let you
>> know when she responds. I won't paste in to this list what I said in
>> private to the reporter, because I worry about our "private" emails
>> being surreptitiously obtained and the usual forces of deception
>> quoting bits out of context on their blog sites--a favorite past time
>> for some of them. If anyone is interested email me privately.
>>
>> Cheers, Steve
>>
>> PS to Tom W.--I fully agree with your point about the 17% in the tails
>> of the CS distribution, but isn't the number really a range: 5-17%,
>> since "likely" in IPCC uncertainties guidance language last time had a
>> table showing that the next category, "very likely" is >90%, so
>> "likely" is 66-90% estimate--ergo the 5-17% range ("very unlikely" to
>> "unlikely" are the agreed words for this range, not "cannot be
>> excluded"). It is a trifle of language, primarily, but I wanted to
>> clarify that there is consistent language for future use.
>>
>>
>> Stephen H. Schneider
>> Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental
>> Studies, Professor, Department of Biology and
>> Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment
>> Mailing address:
>> Yang & Yamazaki Environment & Energy Building - MC 4205
>> 473 Via Ortega
>> Ph: 650 725 9978
>> F: 650 725 4387
>> Websites: climatechange.net
>> patientfromhell.org
>>
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Gabi Hegerl" <[email protected]>
>> To: "Tom Wigley" <[email protected]>, [email protected]
>> Cc: "Eric Steig" <[email protected]>, "Mark B Boslough"
>> <[email protected]>, [email protected], "Thomas Crowley"
>> <[email protected]>, "Dr. Krishna AchutaRao"
>> <[email protected]>, "Myles Allen" <[email protected]>,
>> "Natalia Andronova" <[email protected]>, "Tim C Atkinson"
>> <[email protected]>, "Rick Anthes" <[email protected]>,
>> "Caspar Ammann" <[email protected]>, , "David C.
>> Bader" <[email protected]>, "Tim Barnett"
>> <[email protected]>, "Eric Barron" <[email protected]>, "Graham'
>> 'Bench" <[email protected]>, "Pat Berge"
>> <[email protected]>, "George Boer" <[email protected]>, "Celine J. W.
>> Bonfils" <[email protected]>, "James A.' 'Bono"
>> <[email protected]>, "James Boyle" <[email protected]>, "Ray Bradley"
>> <[email protected]>, "Robin Bravender"
>> , "Keith Briffa" <[email protected]>,
>> "Wolfgang Brueggemann" <[email protected]>, "Lisa
>> Butler" <[email protected]>, "Ken Caldeira"
>> <[email protected]>, "Peter Caldwell" <[email protected]>,
>> "Dan Cayan" <[email protected]>, "Peter U. Clark"
>> <[email protected]>, "Amy Clement" <[email protected]>,
>> "Nancy Cole" >, "William Collins"
>> <[email protected]>, "Tina Conrad" <[email protected]>, "Curtis
>> Covey" <[email protected]>, "birte dar" <[email protected]>, "Davies
>> Trevor Prof" <[email protected]>, "Jay Davis"
>> , "Tomas Diaz De La Rubia" <[email protected]>,
>> "Andrew Dessler" <[email protected]>, "Michael'
>> 'Dettinger" <[email protected]>, "Phil Duffy"
>> , "Paul J.' 'Ehlenbach"
>> <[email protected]>, "Kerry Emanuel" <[email protected]>,
>> "James Estes" <[email protected]>, "Veronika' 'Eyring"
>> <[email protected]>, "David Fahey" <[email protected]>,
>> "Chris Field" <[email protected]>, "Peter
>> Foukal" < >, "Melissa Free"
>> <[email protected]>, "Julio Friedmann" <[email protected]>,
>> "Bill Fulkerson" <[email protected]>, "Inez Fung" <[email protected]>,
>> "Jeff Garberson" >, "PETER GENT"
>> <[email protected]>, "Nathan Gillett" <[email protected]>, "peter
>> gleckler" <[email protected]>, "Bill Goldstein"
>> <[email protected]>, "Hal Graboske" <[email protected]>, "Tom
>> Guilderson" <[email protected]>, "Leopold
>> Haimberger" <[email protected]>, "Alex Hall"
>> <[email protected]>, "James Hansen"
>> <[email protected]>, "harvey" <[email protected]>, "Klaus
>> Hasselmann" <[email protected]>, "Susan Joy
>> Hassol" < >, "Isaac Held"
>> <[email protected]>, "Bob Hirschfeld" <[email protected]>,
>> "Jeremy Hobbs" < , "Dr. Elisabeth
>> A. Holland" <[email protected]>, "Greg Holland"
>> <[email protected]>, "Brian Hoskins" <[email protected]>,
>> "mhughes" <[email protected]>, "James Hurrell"
>> <[email protected]>, "Ken Jackson" <[email protected]>, "c jakob"
>> <[email protected]>, "Gardar Johannesson"
>> <[email protected]>, "Philip D. Jones" <[email protected]>, "Helen
>> Kang" <[email protected]>, "Thomas R Karl"
>> <[email protected]>, "David Karoly" <[email protected]>,
>> "Jeffrey Kiehl" <[email protected]>, "Steve Klein"
>> <[email protected]>, "Knutti Reto" <[email protected]>,
>> "John Lanzante" <[email protected]>,
>> [email protected], "Ron Lehman" <[email protected]>, "John lewis"
>> <[email protected]>, "Steven A. 'Lloyd (GSFC-610.2)[R S
>> INFORMATION SYSTEMS INC]'" <[email protected]>, "Jane Long"
>> , "Janice Lough"
>> <[email protected]>, "mann" <[email protected]>, [email protected], "Linda
>> Mearns" <[email protected]>, "carl mears"
>> < >, "Jerry Meehl" <[email protected]>, "Jerry Melillo"
>> <[email protected]>, "George Miller"
>> <[email protected]>, "Norman Miller" <[email protected]>, "Art Mirin"
>> <[email protected]>, "John FB' 'Mitchell"
>> >, "Phil Mote"
>> <[email protected]>, "Neville Nicholls"
>> <[email protected]>, "Gerald R. North"
>> <[email protected]>, "Astrid E.J. Ogilvie"
>> <[email protected]>, "Stephanie Ohshita"
>> <[email protected]>, "Tim Osborn" <[email protected]>, "Stu'
>> 'Ostro" >, "j palutikof"
>> <[email protected]>, "Joyce Penner" <[email protected]>,
>> "Thomas C Peterson" <[email protected]>, "Tom Phillips"
>> <[email protected]>, "David Pierce"
>> <[email protected]>, [email protected], "V. Ramaswamy"
>> <[email protected]>, "Veerabhadran' 'Ramanathan"
>> <[email protected]>, "Sarah Raper" <[email protected]>, "Phil
>> Rasch" <[email protected]>, "Kathryn Rauhut"
>> <[email protected]>, "Doug Rotman" <[email protected]>, "Terry L. Root"
>> <[email protected]>, "Robert 'Sausen, DLR'"
>> <[email protected]>, "jsanter" , "John
>> Schellnhuber" <[email protected]>, "David Schimel"
>> <[email protected]>, "Michael Schlesinger" <[email protected]>,
>> "Gavin Schmidt" <[email protected]>,
>> "Christina L. Schomer" <[email protected]>, "Lynda Seaver"
>> <[email protected]>, "Dian J. Seidel" <[email protected]>,
>> "Ted Sheppard" <[email protected]>, "s sherwood"
>> <[email protected]>, "Adrian Simmons" <[email protected]>,
>> "socci anthony" <[email protected]>, "brian soden"
>> <[email protected]>, "Susan Solomon" < ,
>> "Ken Sperber" <[email protected]>, "Anne Stark" <[email protected]>,
>> "Thomas Stocker" <[email protected]>, "Ronald J
>> Stouffer" <[email protected]>, [email protected], "Karl
>> Taylor" <[email protected]>, "claudia tebaldi"
>> < , "Joao P' 'Teixeira"
>> <[email protected]>, "Simon Tett" <[email protected]>,
>> "Thomas A.' 'Tombrello" <[email protected]>, "David Thompson"
>> <[email protected]>, "Lonnie Thompson"
>> <[email protected]>, "ELLEN THOMPSON" <[email protected]>, "Peter'
>> 'Thorne" <[email protected]>, "Mike
>> Wallace" <[email protected]>, "Bud Ward"
>> "David 'Warrilow (GA)'"
>> <[email protected]>, "Warren Washington" <[email protected]>,
>> "Andrew Weaver" <[email protected]>, "Michael
>> Wehner" <[email protected]>, "Frank Wentz"
>> "Penny' 'Whetton" <[email protected]>, "Dean N.
>> Williams" <[email protected]>, "Gordon Yano" <[email protected]>,
>> "Francis W. Zwiers" <[email protected]>, "Erik M'
>> 'Conway" <[email protected]>, "Sanjay Khanna"
>> , "Graham Cogley" <[email protected]>,
>> "Jeffrey Kargel" < >, "W. Crawford Elliott"
>> <[email protected]>, "John Weyant"
>> <[email protected]>, "Anthony Janetos" <[email protected]>,
>> "Alison' 'Sowden" , "Vernon
>> Squire" <[email protected]>, "Eric Garen"
>> "Peter Cross" >, "Charles
>> Zeller" >, "Ian Murdock" ,
>> "Victoria A Arroyo" <[email protected]>,
>> "Rashida Leonard" <[email protected]>, "Stephanie Fontenoy"
"John Collee"
"Sarah-jane Potts"
>> , "Greg Dutton"
>> "Richard B. Rood" <[email protected]>, "Brien
>> Seeley" , "Mark Seeley"
>> <[email protected]>, "Oliver Morton"
>> , "Cheryl_H"
>> , "Richard' 'Somerville" <[email protected]>,
>> "Martin Heimann" <[email protected]>,
>> "Don Kennedy" <[email protected]>, "Heidi Cullen"
>> < >, "Shari Bell"
>> >, "Rebecca Bratspies"
>> <[email protected]>, "Pete Myers" ,
>> "Michael Oppenheimer" <[email protected]>, "Naomi Oreskes"
>> <[email protected]>, "Boslough" <[email protected]>, "Ben
>> Santer" <[email protected]>, "Stephen H Schneider" <[email protected]>
>> Sent: Monday, May 31, 2010 1:51:29 PM
>> Subject: Re: response to Newsweek
>>
>> I agree with Tom, it is very important to point out that the
>> uncertainties are very different at the upper and lower tail. The
>> lower tail is quite well constrained. There are a large number of
>> studies, from modelling, and from observed evidence from deep time
>> through LGM through last mill through the 20th century that show that
>> a low (eg lower than 1.5) climate sensitivity is very difficult to
>> reconcile with the data. Evidence from so many sources is stronger
>> than individual lines. there have been occasional papers claiming
>> lower sensitivities, but those made errors that were clear to spot,
>> and in some cases for example, led to the (known) climate sensitivity
>> of models to be crassly underestimated when applied to climate model
>> data. Reto (cc'ed) and I summed up the evidence in a review paper in
>> nature geoscience in fall 2008, which also discusses some recent low
>> estimates (attached).
>> The IPCC AR4 estimate nor that paper was estimate was trying to
>> formally combine different lines of evidence into stronger overall
>> evidence - if that were done, the constraints would be quite a bit
>> stronger, but it is not straightforward to do and we worried about
>> remaining errors being difficult to estimate. what this says is that
>> the present estimate could be considered quite conservative.
>>
>> Gabi
>>
>> Quoting Tom Wigley <[email protected]>:
>>
>>
>>
>>> I agree.
>>>
>>> But let us not propagate the error in the Economist. Here is a para
>>> from a report of mine. The reference cited is in Climatic Change if a
>>> published source is required.
>>>
>>> -----
>>>
>>> The uncertainty in the climate sensitivity has been specified in the
>>> IPCC AR4. The best estimate value is ?T2x = 3.0oC, and the likely
>>> (68% C.I.) range is 2.0 to 4.5oC. In other words, there is a 17%
>>> chance that ?T2x is less than 2.0oC, and a 17% chance that it is
>>> greater than 4.5oC. The uncertainty distribution is therefore skewed
>>> with a longer ‘tail’ at high values than at low values. If one
>>> assumes this distribution is lognormal, then it is easy to calculate
>>> the 90% C.I. (see Wigley et al., 2009) – which comes to 1.5 to
>>> 6.0oC. There is, therefore, if one accepts the IPCC likely range, a
>>> 5% chance that the sensitivity is more than 6.0oC (or less than
>>> 1.5oC).
>>>
>>> -----
>>>
>>> Tom.
>>>
>>> ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
>>>
>>> Eric Steig wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>> Dear All,
>>>>
>>>> I think that a group of scientists in the U.S. really needs to
>>>> write a good response to the egregious editorial in Newsweek.
>>>>
>>>> http://www.newsweek.com/2010/05/28/uncertain-science.html
>>>>
>>>> Both individual letters or a letter signed by dozens of scientists
>>>> might be considered. It would be especially good if this did not
>>>> come from people associated with RealClimate, which is too often
>>>> the only widely-known counterpoint to these sorts of things.
>>>>
>>>> I would argue that the point of the letter would not be once again
>>>> to defend scientists' integrity, important as that may be.
>>>>
>>>> Rather, the letter should focus on the key scientific point, which
>>>> is correcting what is said in the Newsweek article about climate
>>>> sensitivity. In effect, Newsweek says that our knowledge of
>>>> climate sensitivity is 'no longer certain' and that we can
>>>> therefore not justify cutting fossil fuel use on this basis (!).
>>>>
>>>> The point to make here -- at least in my view -- is that 1) the
>>>> uncertainties were already clear in the IPCC report, and they have
>>>> not changed and that 2) none of the recent political shenanigans
>>>> have have changed our estimates of climate sensitivity.
>>>>
>>>> You might borrow from the excellent article in the Economist, which
>>>> sums up the point this way:
>>>>
>>>> "...the sensitivity to a doubling of carbon dioxide of less than
>>>> 1.5ºC ... has perhaps one chance in ten of being correct. But if
>>>> the IPCC were underestimating things by a factor of five or so,
>>>> that would still leave only a 50:50 chance of ...a desirable
>>>> outcome. The fact that the uncertainties allow you to construct a
>>>> relatively benign future does not allow you to ignore futures in
>>>> which climate change is large, and in some of which it is very
>>>> dangerous indeed."
>>>>