World Energy and Transition to Sustainable Development

267 Pages·2002·26.514 MB·English

by  Lev S. Belyaev, Oleg V. Marchenko, Sergei P. Filippov, Sergei V. Solomin, Tatyana B. Stepanova, Alexei L. Kokorin

WORLD ENERGY AND TRANSITION
TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
World Energy and Transition to
Sustainable Development
by
Lev S. Belyaev
Oleg V. Marchenko
Sergei P. Filippov
Sergei V. Solomin
Tatyana B. Stepanova
and
Alexei L. Kokorin
Energy Systems Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
Irkutsk, Russia
SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V.
A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.
ISBN 978-90-481-6137-9 ISBN 978-94-017-3705-0 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-3705-0
Cover image: Block diagram of Lunar power system
Translated and updated version of:
L.S. Belyaev, O. V. Marchenko, S.P. Filippov, S.V. Solornin, T.B. Stepanova, A.L. Kokorin.
The world energy and transition to sustainable development. Novosibirsk, "Nauka", 2000,
269 p. (in Russian).
Original title: MHpoBaK 3HepreTHKa H nepexo.u K ycTOwmsoMy pa3BHTHIO
Translators: V.P. Ermakova, M.V. Ozerova, A.S. Kiruta
Printed on acid-free paper
All Rights Reserved
© 2002 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 2002
Softcover reprint ofthe hardcover lst edition 2002
No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted
in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording
or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception
of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered
and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work.
CONTENTS
Preface vii
Part I. METHODOLOGY OF STUDIES AND EXTERNAL
CONDITIONS OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21st
CENTURY
Chapter 1. WORLD ENERGY: STATE OF THE ART AND TRENDS IN
DEVELOPMENT.................................................................. 3
1.1. Definitions................................................................ 3
1.2. Statistical indicators........................................................ 5
1.3. Energy and economy..................................................... 14
1.4. Forecasts.................................................................... 22
Chapter 2. METHODOLOGY OF STUDIES.................................... 27
2.1. Energy and sustainable development... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 27
2.2. General approach, composition and sequence of studies.............. 31
2.3. Mathematical model of the world energy system GEM-lOR........ 39
Chapter 3. ENERGY DEMAND.................................................. 45
3 .1. Peculiarities of energy demand forecasting............................ 45
3.2. The method of thermodynamic limits.................................. 46
3.3. Sustainable energy consumption in developing countries.......... 59
3.4. Energy demand projection for the GEM-I OR model................. 67
Chapter 4. ENERGY RESOURCES............................................... 83
4.1. Methodological aspects................................................... 83
4.2. Fossil fuel resources...................................................... 89
4.3. Nuclear energy resources................................................ 97
4.4. Potential of renewable energy sources................................. 101
Chapter 5. TECHNOLOGIES OF ENERGY CONVERSION AND
FINAL CONSUMPTION........................................................... 119
5.1. General remarks........................................................... 119
5.2. Technologies of electric power generation............................ 120
5.3. Technologies for production of secondary chemical energy
carriers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
5.4. Technologies for production offmal energy forms................... 139
5.5. Space power systems...................................................... 142
Part II. STUDY ON PROBLEMS AND TENDENCIES OF ENERGY
DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21st CENTURY..................................... 153
Chapter 6. GLOBAL SCENARIOS OF EXTERNAL CONDITIONS FOR
ENERGY DEVELOPMENT....................................................... 155
Chapter 7. CHANGES IN THE WORLD ENERGY STRUCTURE......... 159
7.1. Primary energy consumption............................................ 159
7.2. Depletion of cheap fuel resources and trends in changes oftheir
prices................................................................................... 169
7.3. Synthetic fuel production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . 172
7.4. Use of energy carriers for fmal energy production..................... 176
Chapter 8. TENDENCIES IN ENERGY DEVELOPMENT OF WORLD
REGIONS AND IN INTERREGIONAL TIES................................. 181
v
vi Contents
8.1. Peculiarities in regional energy structures and interregional fuel
exchange... .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. .. 181
8.2. Regional peculiarities in using energy carriers and technologies 193
for electrical, thermal and mechanical energy production .................... .
Chapter 9. ANALYSIS OF CONDITIONS AND REQUIREMENTS OF 203
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT .............................................. .
9.1. Energy and climate change............................................... 203
9. 2. Expenses of energy development and GOP... . . . . . . . .. . .. . .. .. . . . . . . . 209
9.3. Principles of sharing expenses of C0 emissionreduction...... .... 215
2
9.4. Modelling of relations between energy and the economy............ 223
Chapter 10. DIRECTIONS AND PRIORITIES OF TECHNOLOGICAL 231
PROGRESS IN ENERGY ........................................................ ..
10.1. Prospects for applying new energy technologies... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231
10.2. Technologically unified nmlti-product World energy system..... 239
CONCLUSION... .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. .. . 243
REFERENCES... .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. .. .. . .. . .. . .. ... 249
ACRONYMS... .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. .. 259
Index.................................................................................... 261
Preface
The future attracts us by its uncertainty. It presents us with a variety of
alternatives and generates a range of fears and hopes. Hardly anyone can remain
indifferent to it. For scientists, it is as much a subject of cognition as are physical
phenomena, chemical and biological processes, economic laws and many other
spheres of intellectual curiosity. Investigations of the remote future are mainly of
cognitive character. Forecasts for the near future must necessarily pursue more
pragmatic - political, social, and economic -goals. The degree of depth and
accuracy required of those forecasts depends on how concrete and specific the
perceived problems are and how their solutions will effect the well-being of the
planet and the people on it.
Interest in the remote future increased significantly in the 1960-70s, due in
large part to studies initiated by "The Club of Rome" [1] which forcibly drew our
attention to the limits of resources on our planet. The so-called energy crisis, caused
by a shatp rise of oil prices in 1973 and 1979, was a stimulating factor for the energy
sector.
Studies of long-term prospects for energy development in the world and its
regions were begun in a number of national and international organisations.
Particularly comprehensive studies were carried out at the International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and summarised in the monograph [2]. Other
works that are worthy of mention are [3-5]. In the 1980-90s an increasing number
of countries and institutions took up similar studies. Recently, particular emphasis
has been placed on energy problems in the relatively new context of mankind's
transition to sustainable development.
The studies described in this book began in the late 1980s at the Siberian
Energy Institute (SEI) of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch (known
since 1998 as the Energy Systems Institute). They were from the beginning
technology oriented. Their putpose was to comprehend long-term trends in the
technological progress as a substantive basis on which to determine rational
directions for development of the national energy sector.
A hypothesis was posed for possible formation in the 21st century of a
technologically unified (multi-product) World Energy System (WES) as a way for
development of centralised energy supplies to cities and industrial centres. It was
conjectured that such a WES might be formed by creating very large (tens of
gigawatts) energy centres that would produce a combination of electrical and
thermal energy from nuclear energy and renewable energy sources (solar, tidal, etc)
and also synthetic liquid and gaseous fuel from coal, shale and so on. Section 10.2 of
this book is specifically devoted to describing the concept of a multi-product WES
and analysing studies performed on a model of such a concept.
The Global Energy Model (GEM-lOR) was devised to study the proposed
World Energy System [8]. It divides the world into ten regions, allows for data about
these regions over a time horizon that extends to the end of the 21st century, and
specifies comparisons at time points 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100. GEM-10 is a
linear, optimisation, quasidynamic model with sufficiently detailed presentation of
vii
viii Preface
teclmologies for the whole cycle of energy production, conversion, transport and
consumption. It incorporates environmental constraints (on emissions of C02, S02,
NOx and particulates), calculation of costs for regional energy development and
operation, export-import dynamics of energy carriers, shadow prices, etc. After the
model was provided with an extensive information on energy resources, demands,
teclmologies and constraints, it became the main tool of our studies and proved to be
a very efficient one.
In the majority of studies performed the world was divided into ten regions
mentioned in the Table. This division principally coincides with the one normally
accepted in global energy studies and differs only in greater territorial integrity of
the regions (for example, regions of JK. and AZ).
Table. Division of the world into regions
No. Region Symbol Countries
1 North America NA USA (including Guam, Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico) and Canada
2 Europe EU All countries of Europe (excluding republics of
the former USSR) and Turkey.
3 Japanand JK. Japan and South Korea.
Korea
4 Australia and AZ Commonwealth of Australia, New Zealand, New
New Caledonia.
Zealand
su
5 Theformer Russia and 14 republics (now countries) which
USSR were parts of the USSR.
6 Latin America LA Countries of South, Central America,
Caribbean basin and Mexico.
7 Middle East and ME Afghanistan, Iran, all Asian countries to the west
North Africa of Iran (excluding Turkey) and 6 countries of
Africa (Egypt, Sudan, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria,
Morocco).
8 Africa AF All countries of Africa excluding countries
which are parts of region 7.
9 China CH China (including Taiwan and Hong Kong),
Mongolia, North Korea, Laos, Vietnam,
Cambodia.
10 Southand SA All countries of Asia excluding those in regions
Southeast Asia 3, 5, 7, 9 and also developing countries of
Oceania.
In 1992-1999 the GEM-lOR model was applied to perform the following
extensive scope of studies on:
-the possible role and efficiency of the Earth's power supply from Space
Power Systems including the Lunar Power System (LPS) [9-13];
Preface ix
- nuclear energy efficiency and possible scales of its development in the 21st
century [12, 14, 15];
- the influence of global constraints on C0 emissions, on structure and
2
economic indices of the world and regional energy [10, 12, 14];
- long-term prospects of energy development in the former USSR region and
the Asian-Pacific region and their potential role in world energy [16];
- peculiarities of and requirements for long-term energy development which
are caused by the necessity of transition of the world community to a new
conception of sustainable development (under Russian Foundation of Basic
Researches 96-82-18008) [14].
Furthermore, the authors of the book took part in the international project of
IAEA ''The overall comparative assessment of different energy sources (systems)
and their potential role in long-term sustainable energy mixes" (1997-1999), in the
project of European Commission EURIO-KIT (1997-1998) and other international
projects.
A considemble body of information was accumulated during these studies and
it was considered expedient to summarise it in a monogmph. Based on the obtained
results and experience of studies and also recently published works [17, 18, etc.] the
authors pursued the following main goals in the book:
1. To analyse long-term tendencies and study possible alternatives of energy
development in the world and its regions including:
- economically expedient scales of development of the existing and new
energy technologies;
- distinctions in regional energy structures;
- possible scales of fuel exchange (trade) among the regions;
- distribution of global constraints on C0 emissions by region, their influence
2
on energy structure and associated costs.
Such global and regional analysis became possible largely due to the unique
peculiarities ofthe GEM-lOR model.
2. To form notions of energy for sustainable development (by this term we will
mean the entire concept of the energy sector meeting requirements and conditions
for mankind's transition to sustainable development) and potentialities and
conditions of its formation in different regions of the world. This problem is
considered from the standpoint of searching for an optimal energy structure and
scales of its development, providing, on the one hand, economic growth and
improvement of the living standard of people, especially in developing countries,
and on the other hand, reduction in the negative impact of man's activity on the
environment up to a safe limit, which allows catastrophic consequences in the long
term future to be avoided.
3. To try to make a forecast of "sustainable" energy development in the world
and its regions in the 21st century. For this purpose along with the "extreme"
scenarios of energy development conditions (rigid constraints on C0 emissions, a
2
moratorium on nuclear energy development, etc.) that were usually considered by
the book authors and other researchers, two forecasted scenarios were genemted.
They are characterised by:
X Preface
- a low energy consumption level, which at the same time turns out to be
sufficient for economic growth and improvement of the standard of living in
developing countries;
- financial and technological assistance of the developed to the developing
countries;
- "mitigated" constraints on C(h emissions;
- introduction of "sound" constraints on nuclear energy development
(including breeders) in the world regions;
- sufficiently justified constraints on introduction of new energy
technologies, consumption of fossil fuel resources (primarily oil and natural gas),
interregional fuel exchange and so on.
These forecasted or "credible" scenarios were generated by applying the
experience and analysis of the results of previous studies and calculations on the
GEM-lOR. These scenarios are based in particular on the thesis which the authors
arrived at: "In the 21st century there will be no prevailing energy resource (with a
fraction of more than 30 or 35%), as was the case before". It may be expected that
all main energy resources (coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear energy and renewable
energy sources) will be used in certain proportions.
Despite the conventional character of such forecasts, they can give a realistic
view of the future energy, its possible influence on the environment, needed
economic expenditures, etc. Subsequently they will surely require adjustment in
striving for perfection.
The following methodological "innovations", improving reliability of the
results are applied in the described studies:
-the original GEM-lOR model, optimising the world energy as a whole, is
used;
- demands for final energy forms (electrical, thermal, mechanical and
chemical ones) are considered, allowing the simulation of the whole energy chain
from primary energy production to final energy consumption and competition
(substitution) of energy carriers;
- a modified method of direct calculations is proposed to determine minimum
necessary energy demands for the long-term future;
- division of reserves of primary energy resources (renewable and non
renewable) into 7-9 cost categories (including very expensive ones) is foreseen,
making it possible to consider the nonlinear dependence of available resources on
their cost.
Chapter 1 presents a survey of the current state and trends of the world energy
development as an object of the described studies. Statistical data on primary energy
production, energy consumption, economic growth rates, etc. are given and
analysed. The chapter also gives a brief description of previous forecasts of world
energy development for the medium-and long-term future.
Chapter 2 describes an applied methodology of world energy study.
Requirements for energy resulting from the principles of sustainable development
are analysed; a general pattern and peculiarities of studies are considered.
Mathematical description of the GEM-lOR model is given.