Winning at Litigation through Decision Analysis: Creating and Executing Winning Strategies in any Litigation or Dispute

467 Pages·2016·21.664 MB·English

by  John Celona (auth.)

Springer Series in Operations Research
and Financial Engineering
John Celona
Winning at
Litigation through
Decision Analysis
Creating and Executing
Winning Strategies
in any Litigation or Dispute
Springer Series in Operations Research
and Financial Engineering
Series Editors
Thomas V. Mikosch
Sidney I. Resnick
Stephen M. Robinson
More information about this series at h ttp://www.springer.com/series/3182

John Celona
Winning at Litigation
through Decision Analysis
Creating and Executing Winning Strategies
in any Litigation or Dispute
John Celona
San Carlos , CA , USA
ISSN 1431-8598 ISSN 2197-1773 (electronic)
Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering
ISBN 978-3-319-30038-2 ISBN 978-3-319-30040-5 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-30040-5
Library of Congress Control Number: 2016940906
© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016
T his work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of
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Printed on acid-free paper
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This book is dedicated to
Professor Ronald A. Howard
and Dr. Peter McNamee, who taught me
decision analysis and how to write about it;
to our son Trey, whose love lights up
our lives in ways we never could have
predicted; and to my spouse and partner
in life Bubba Gong, without whose constant
love, support, belief and counsel this work
would never have come to fruition.

Foreword
O ver the course of more than half a century, my main professional concern has been
improving decision making. The importance of decisions should be self-evident:
Decisions are the only means you have to change your future life.
M ost of us consider ourselves pretty good at making decisions despite having
little or no formal training in the subject. Yet the principles of good decision making
have been known for generations. Unfortunately, it is all too easy to demonstrate
how frequently people make decisions that seem unwise to them upon more careful
review. Hence my personal commitment in spreading decision analysis is to provide
anyone who wishes the competence to attain clarity of action in any decision they
face. My latest book with Ali Abbas, F oundations of Decision Analysis , presents the
fi eld at levels that progress from novice to professional.
In this work John Celona applies decision analysis to decisions in litigation or,
more generally, to disputes of all sorts: an area in which improved decision compe-
tence can greatly help people to clarify what they want, what it is worth to them, and
how best to achieve it. Litigation decisions are especially diffi cult because they
involve high stakes, great uncertainty, and because they require close cooperation
between the principal (a client) and a highly trained professional (the attorney).
Decision analysis should be a part of every attorney’s training. Unfortunately, it is
not. Further, among the many works on decisions in litigation, none tackle in depth
the application of decision analysis to litigation. This book will help to fi ll that gap.
A further challenge arises when an analyst (possibly trained in decision analysis,
management science, or operations research) is called in to support the legal
decision- making process. Legal terminology, issues, and how to structure and ana-
lyze them are critical, yet foreign to an analyst—and most attorneys are not trained
to provide what the analyst needs to know about legal proceedings. This book will
be of great assistance.
For over three decades, I have known, taught, and worked with the author at
Stanford University, at Strategic Decisions Group, and during his subsequent inde-
pendent consulting practice. I have always found him to be an exceptionally clear
thinker and commend his contributions to the fi eld of decision analysis. His fi rst
book on decision analysis, D ecision Analysis for the Professional (coauthored with
vii
viii Foreword
Peter McNamee), played a key role in developing the professional practice of deci-
sion analysis. This work, fi rst published in 1986 and presently in its fourth edition,
continues in use at Stanford University and around the world.
The author’s combination of clear thought, acumen, ability, training, and experi-
ence in both the law and decision analysis make him uniquely qualifi ed to author
this work. I applaud his newest contribution to wider decision competence and rec-
ommend it highly.
Stanford, CA Ronald A. Howard
Productio n Credits
Apple OS Support: Adam Rosen, Oakbog.com.
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