When the Stakes Are High: Deterrence and Conflict among Major Powers

312 Pages·2002·1.44 MB·English

by  Vesna Danilovic

When the Stakes Are High

When the Stakes Are High
Deterrence and Conflict
among Major Powers
Vesna Danilovic
The University of Michigan Press
Ann Arbor
Copyright © by the University of Michigan 2002
All rights reserved
Published in the United States of America by
The University of Michigan Press
Manufactured in the United States of America
cPrinted on acid-free paper
2005 2004 2003 2002 4 3 2 1
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system,
or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, or otherwise,
without the written permission of the publisher.
A CIP catalog record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Danilovic, Vesna, [date]
When the stakes are high : deterrence and conflict among major
powers / Vesna Danilovic.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-472-11287-2 (cloth : alk. paper)
1. Balance of power—History. 2. World politics.
3. International relations. 4. Security, International. I. Title.
JZ1313 .D36 2002
327.1'6—dc21 2002006743
For my mom,
Jela Danilovic´

Contents
List of Figures ix
List of Tables xi
Preface xiii
Part I
Chapter 1. Introduction 3
Chapter 2. Major Powers and Global Contenders 26
Chapter 3. Deterrence and Con›ict 47
Part II
Chapter 4. Balance of Power and Power Shifts: Global
Interests at Stake 71
Chapter 5. Credibility and Geopolitics: Regional
Interests at Stake 98
Chapter 6. Resolve and Domestic Costs: Internal
Interests at Stake 124
Part III
Chapter 7. Predicting Major Power Con›icts: High Stakes or
Costly Signals? 143
Chapter 8. Theoretical and Policy Implications 163
Appendixes
Appendix A. Case Summaries and Sources 183
Appendix B. Conceptual and Operational Rules for
Major Powers 225
Appendix C. Sources and Data for Colonial Possessions
and Foreign Trade 231
Appendix D. Questions of Statistical Analysis and
Discrete Choice Models 236
Notes 245
References 259
Index 281

Figures
3.1. General and Immediate Deterrence 55
3.2. Extended-Immediate Deterrence 57
4.1. COW National Capability Index of Major Powers,
1895–1985 90
4.2. COW Military Power Index of Major Powers, 1895–1985 91
4.3. COW Economic Power Index of Major Powers, 1895–1985 91
4.4. Gross Domestic Product of Major Powers, 1895–1985 92
6.1. A Joint Domestic Regime Effect on the Probability of
Defender’s Acquiescence 137
6.2. A Joint Domestic Regime Effect on the Probability of
Challenger’s Acquiescence 137
6.3. A Joint Domestic Regime Effect on the Probability
of Compromise 138
6.4. A Joint Domestic Regime Effect on the Probability of War 138