What Every Engineer Should Know about Reliability and Risk Analysis

368 Pages·2017·14.23 MB·English

by  Mohammad Modarres

WHAT EVERY
REIIABIIITY
RISK ANALYSIS
WHAT EVERY ENGINEER SHOULD KNOW
A Series
Editor
William H. Middendorf
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
University of Cincinnati
Cincinnati, Ohio
What Every Engineer Should Know About Patents, William G, Konold,
Bruce Tittel, Donald F. Frei, and David S. Staiiard
What Every Engineer Should Know About Product Liability, James F.
Thorpe and William H. Middendorf
3. What Every Engineer Should Know About Microcomputers:
Hardware/Software Design, A Step-by-Step Example, William S.
Bennett and Carl F. Evert, Jr.
What Every Engineer Should Know About Economic Decision Analysis,
Dean S. Shape
5. What Every Engineer Should Know About Human Resources
Management, Desmond D. Martin and Richard L Shell
6. What Every Engineer Should Know About Manufacturing Cost
Estimating, Eric M. Malstrom
7. What Every Engineer Should Know About Inventing, William H.
Middendorf
8. What Every Engineer Should Know About Technology Transfer and
Innovation, Louis N. Mogavero and Robert S. Shane
What Every Engineer Should Know About Project Management, Ar-
nold M. Ruskin and W. Eugene Estes
10. What Every Engineer Should Know About Computer-Aided Design and
Computer-Aided Manufacturing: The CAD/CAM Revolution, John K.
Krouse
11. What Every Engineer Should Know About Robots, Maurice I. Zeldman
12. What Every Engineer Should Know About Microcomputer Systems
Design and Debugging, Bill Wray and Bill Crawford
13. What Every Engineer Should Know About Engineering Information
Resources, Margaret T. Schenk and James K. Webster
14. What Every Engineer Should Know About Microcomputer Program
Design, Keith R. Wehmeyer
15. What Every Engineer Should Know About Computer Modeling and
Simulation, Don M. Ingels
16. What Every Engineer Should Know About Engineering Workstations,
Justin £. Harlow III
17. What Every Engineer Should Know About Practical CAD/CAM Appli­
cations, John Stark
18. What Every Engineer Should Know About Threaded Fasteners:
Materials and Design, Alexander Blake
19. What Every Engineer Should Know About Data Communications, Carl
Stephen Clifton
20. What Every Engineer Should Know About Material and Component
Failure, Failure Analysis, and Litigation, Lawrence E. Murr
21. What Every Engineer Should Know About Corrosion, Philip Schweitzer
22. What Every Engineer Should Know About Lasers, D. C. Winburn
23. What Every Engineer Should Know About Finite Element Analysis,
edited by John R. Brauer
24. What Every Engineer Should Know About Patents: Second Edition,
William G. Konold, Bruce Tittel, Donald F. Frei, and David S. St aliará
25. What Every Engineer Should Know About Electronic Communications
Systems, L. R. McKay
26. What Every Engineer Should Know About Quality Control, Thomas
Pyzdek
27. What Every Engineer Should Know About Microcomputers: Hardware/
Software Design, A Step-by-Step Example. Second Edition, Revised
and Expanded, William S. Bennett, Carl F. Evert, and Leslie C. Lander
28. What Every Engineer Should Know About Ceramics, Solomon
Musikant
29. What Every Engineer Should Know About Developing Plastics
Products, Bruce C. Wendle
30. What Every Engineer Should Know About Reliability and Risk Analysis,
M. Modarres
ADDITIONAL VOLUMES IN PREPARATION

WHinr EVERY
REUABIUTY
RISK ANAIYSIS
M . M odarres
Center for Reliability Engineering
University of Maryland
College Park, Maryland
CRC Press
Taylor &. Francis Group
Boca Raton London New York
CRC Press is an imprint of the
Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
Library of Congress Caialoging-in-Publication Data
Modarres, M. (Mohammad)
What every engineer should know about reliability and risk
analysis / M. Modarres
p. cm. — (What every engineer should know about; v. 30)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-8247-8958-X
1. Reliability (Engineering) 2. Risk assessment. I. Title.
II. Title: Reliability and risk analysis. III. Series.
TA169.M63 1993
620’ .00452~dc20 92-32998
CIP
This book is printed on acid-free paper.
Copyright © 1993 by MARCEL DEKKER All Rights Reserved,
Neither this book nor any part may be reproduced or transmitted in any form
or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, micro­
filming, and recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system,
without permission in writing from the publisher.
MARCEL DEKKER
270 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016
Current printing (last digit):
10 9 8 7 6
PRINTED IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
To my wife, Susan,
for her patience and understanding.
And to my son, Ceena.
The quest for certainty blocks the
search for meaning. Uncertainty is
the very condition to impel man to
unfold his powers.
Erich Fromm, Man for Himself (1947)

Preface
This book provides an introduction to reliability and risk anal­
ysis, both for engineering students at the undergraduate and grad­
uate levels, and for practicing engineers. Since rehability analysis
is a multidisciphnary subject, the scope is not limited to any one
engineering discipline; rather, the material is applicable to most en­
gineering disciphnes. I developed the contents of this book from
material I presented over the last 10 years in undergraduate and
graduate-level courses in Rehabihty Analysis and Risk Assessment
that I have been teaching at the University of Maryland. The book
presents basic and advanced methods in rehabihty analysis that are
commonly used in practice. The book presents these methods along
with a number of examples.
The emphasis of the book is the introduction and explanation
of the practical methods used in rehabihty, and risk studies, and
discussion of their use and hmitations. These methods cover a wide
range of topics that are used in routine engineering activities. The
book assumes that the readers have httle or no background in prob-
abihty and statistics. Thus, an introductory chapter (Chapter 1)
defines rehabihty, availability and risk analysis, and Chapter 2 pro­
vides review of probabihty and statistics essential to understanding
of the rehabihty methods discussed in the book.
I have structured the book so that basic rehabihty methods are
described first in Chapter 3 in the context of a basic engineering unit
(i.e., a component). Next, in Chapter 4 these analytical methods are
described in the context of a more complex engineering unit (i.e., a
system containing many interacting components). The material in
Chapters 1 through 4 are more appropriate for an undergraduate
course in rehabihty engineering.
The availability concept and rehabihty considerations for re­
pairable systems are discussed in Chapter 5. This chapter also ex­
plains the corresponding use of the analytical methods discussed in
the earher chapters when performing availabihty analysis of com­