Vehicular Traffic Analysis Technical Appendices

3560 Pages·2013·25.86 MB·English

Van Ness Corridor Bus Rapid Transit

Vehicular Traffic Analysis
Technical Memorandum
Appendices

Van Ness Avenue Bus Rapid Transit Project
Vehicular Traffic Impact Analysis Technical Memorandum
7/3/2013
APPENDICES
Appendix 1: SF-CHAMP Validation Report ………………………………………………………………3
Appendix 2: Land Use Inputs to SF-CHAMP model…………………………………………………….134
Appendix 3: Cross Transit Delay and Travel Time Reduction Proposals……………………………......1
61
Appendix 4: VISSIM Data Portfolio and VISSIM Outputs for All Scenarios…………………………...18
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Appendix 5: Diversion Analysis………………………………………………………………………….29
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Appendix 6: Build Alternative 2 and 3 with Design Option B Diversions……………………………….30
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Appendix 7: Vehicular Traffic Volume Balancing Memorandum……………………………………….31
6
Appendix 8: Existing Condition Turning Movement Counts and Pedestrians Counts……………….......3
21
Appendix 9: Comparison of Existing Condition Counts and Synchro Volumes…………………………4
14
Appendix 10: Synchro Model Inputs and Outputs for All Scenarios…………………………………….4
21
Appendix 11: LOS Comparison for All Scenarios……………………………………………………...345
4
Appendix 12: Signal Warrant Analysis and Significant Impact Calculations…………………………..345
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Appendix 13: Mitigations – Synchro Model Inputs and Outputs……………………………………….347
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Appendix 14: Local Preferred Alternative (LPA) Comparison Memorandum…………………………354
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Appendix 15: Pedestrian Volume Sensitivity Analysis…………………………………………………3551
Appendix 16: Change in Vehicular Traffic Volumes: North-South Streets…………………………….355
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Appendix 1
SF-CHAMP Validation Report
Van Ness Avenue Bus Rapid Transit Project
Vehicular Traffic Impact Analysis Technical Memorandum
6/11/2013
San Francisco County Transportation
Authority On-Call Modeling Services
Contract

Update of the San Francisco Chained
Activity Modeling Process (SF-CHAMP)

For:
The San Francisco County Transportation
Authority

By:
PB

In Association with:
Mark Bradley Research & Consulting

June 11, 2007

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Tables

Table 1: TAZ Data File Contents..........................................................................................18
Table 2: Final Highway Time Factors..................................................................................32
Table 3: Final Stop Time Factors..........................................................................................32
Table 4: Validation Results for Muni Routes.......................................................................34
Table 5: Validation Results for All Routes...........................................................................34
Table 6: MTC and Census Income Groups...........................................................................40
Table 7: Household Income Quartile Shifts in Income Inflation Submodel........................40
Table 8: Population Synthesizer PUMA-level Validation Results for San Francisco County
................................................................................................................................................46
Table 9: Population Synthesizer PUMA-level Validation Results for 9-County Area........47
Table 10: CHAMP3 Roadway Traffic Assignment Parameters............................................48
Table 11: Time-of-day Factors for Trucks............................................................................49
Table 12: Time-of-Day and Directional Factors for External Trips.....................................50
Table 13: Intercounty Roadway Adjustment Factors............................................................52
Table 14: Intercounty Transit Adjustment Factors................................................................52
Table 15: Shares and Total Intra-SF Trips by Non-SF Residents........................................53
Table 16: Calibrated Workplace Destination Choice Model Coefficients............................57
Table 17 Estimated Worker Flows by Neighborhood...........................................................62
Table 18: Difference between Estimated and Observed Worker Flows by Neighborhood...63
Table 19 Estimated Worker Flows by Area Type.................................................................64
Table 20 Difference between Estimated and Observed Worker Flows by Area Type..........64
Table 21: Calibrated Workplace Destination Choice Model Coefficients............................65
Table 22: Comparison of Observed and Estimated Internal San Francisco Trips by Tour
Type and Time of Day...........................................................................................................69
Table 23 Comparison of CHAMP3 and CHAMP2 Internal San Francisco Trips by Tour
Type and Time of Day...........................................................................................................70
Table 24: Other Tour Destination Choice Size Term Estimation Results............................73
Table 25: Work-Based Tour Destination Choice Size Term Estimation Results.................73
Table 26: Final School Tour Destination Choice Model.......................................................84
Table 27: Final Other Tour Destination Choice Model.........................................................85
Table 28: Final Work-based Tour Destination Choice Model...............................................86
Table 29: Work Tour Mode Choice Calibration Results......................................................88
Table 30: Grade School Tour Mode Choice Calibration Results.........................................89
Table 31: High School Tour Mode Choice Calibration Results............................................89
Table 32: College Tour Mode Choice Calibration Results...................................................89
Table 33: Other Tour Mode Choice Calibration Results......................................................89
Table 34: Work-based Tour Mode Choice Calibration Results............................................89
Table 35: Final Calibrated Work Tour Mode Choice Model..............................................91
Table 36: Final Calibrated School Tour Mode Choice Models...........................................93
Table 37: Final Calibrated Other Tour Mode Choice Model..............................................94
Table 38: Final Calibrated Work-Based Tour Mode Choice Model....................................96
Table 39: Work Tour Intermediate Stop Choice Size Term Estimation Results..................99
Table 40: Grade School Tour Intermediate Stop Choice Size Term Results.....................100
Table 41: High School Tour Intermediate Stop Choice Size Term Results.......................101
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Table 42: College Tour Intermediate Stop Choice Size Term Results...............................101
Table 43: Other Tour Intermediate Stop Choice Size Term Results..................................102
Table 44: Calibrated Average Tour Distance including Intermediate Stops......................103
Table 45: Calibrated Average Tour Time including Intermediate Stops............................103
Table 46: Final Calibrated Work Intermediate Stop Choice Model...................................107
Table 47: Final Calibrated School Intermediate Stop Choice Models..............................109
Table 48: Final Calibrated Other Intermediate Stop Choice Models..................................110
Table 49: Final Calibrated Work-Based Tour Intermediate Stop Choice Models..............111
Table 50: Work Trip Mode Choice Calibration Results.....................................................113
Table 51: Grade School Trip Mode Choice Calibration Results........................................113
Table 52: High School Trip Mode Choice Calibration Results..........................................114
Table 53: College Trip Mode Choice Calibration Results.................................................114
Table 54: Other Trip Mode Choice Calibration Results.....................................................115
Table 55: Work-Based Trip Mode Choice Calibration Results..........................................115
Table 56: Final Calibrated Work Trip Mode Choice Model.............................................116
Table 57: Final Calibrated School Trip Mode Choice Models...........................................117
Table 58: Final Calibrated Other Trip Mode Choice Models............................................118
Table 59: Final Calibrated Work-Based Trip Mode Choice Models.................................119
Table 60: Roadway Daily Volume Validation by Facility Type........................................121
Table 61: Roadway Daily Volume Validation by Time-of-Day........................................122
Table 62: Roadway AM Peak Speed Validation................................................................122
Table 63: Roadway PM Peak Speed Validation.................................................................122
Table 64: MUNI Boardings by Submode...........................................................................125
Table 65: MUNI Boardings by Time of Day......................................................................126
Table 66: MUNI Boardings by Residency Status and Submode........................................126
Table 67: Estimated and Observed MUNI Boardings by Route..........................................127
Table 68: BART Daily Boardings by San Francisco Station.............................................129
Table 69: BART SF Boardings by Time-of-Day................................................................130
Table 70: Transbay Daily Inbound Transit Screenline Volumes........................................130
Table 71: San Mateo Countyline Daily Inbound Transit Screenline Volumes..................130

Figures
Figure 1: New SF Model TAZs...............................................................................................7
Figure 2: Old SF Model TAZs.................................................................................................8
Figure 3 Comparison of CTPP and SF Planning Dept Employment Locations....................10
Figure 4: Adjusted San Franciso Planning Dept Employment by Tract................................12
Figure 5: Population Density 2000........................................................................................14
Figure 6: Employment Density 2000.....................................................................................15
Figure 7: Population Density Change 2000-2030..................................................................16
Figure 8: Employment Density Change 2000-2030..............................................................17
Figure 9: Household Workers Submodel..............................................................................42
Figure 10: Household Size Submodel...................................................................................44
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Figure 11: Work Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Time)...........................................58
Figure 12: Work Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Distance).......................................59
Figure 13 Map of Calibration Neighborhoods.......................................................................60
Figure 14: Grade School Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Distance)...........................76
Figure 15: Grade School Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Time).................................76
Figure 16: High School Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Distance)............................77
Figure 17: High School Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Time)..................................77
Figure 18: College Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Distance).....................................78
Figure 19: College Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Time)..........................................78
Figure 20: Grade School Destinations vs. Grade School Enrollment by TAZ......................79
Figure 21: High School Destinations vs. High School Enrollment by TAZ.........................80
Figure 22: College Destinations vs. College Enrollment by TAZ........................................80
Figure 23: Other Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Distance)........................................82
Figure 24: Other Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Time).............................................82
Figure 25: Work-based Subtour Length Frequency Distribution (Distance)........................83
Figure 26: Work-based Subtour Length Frequency Distribution (Time).............................83
Figure 27: Work Total Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Distance)...........................104
Figure 28: Grade School Total Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Distance)...............104
Figure 29: High School Total Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Distance)................105
Figure 30: College Total Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Distance)........................105
Figure 31: Other Total Tour Length Frequency Distribution (Distance)...........................106
Figure 32: Work-based Total Subtour Length Frequency Distribution (Distance)............106
Figure 33: Scatterplot of Estimated and Observed MUNI Boardings by Route.................128

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INTRODUCTION

The SF-CHAMP travel demand forecasting model is one of the first activity-based modeling
systems used in the U.S., and the only activity-based model in the U.S. used for ongoing and
extensive policy analysis on a wide variety of planning studies—from local impact
assessments to New Starts analysis. As part of an on-call services contract, PB was engaged
to provide services related to the enhancement and update of the SF-CHAMP model system.
The services included tasks specifically intended to make it easier to set up and use the
model system through the development of automated tools, as well as take advantage of
recent data including an expanded TAZ system, refined employment estimates, highway and
transit observed speed data, 2004 Muni on-board survey data, and 2000 BATS home-
interview survey data. Ultimately, this effort resulted in a model system that is easier to use,
matches observed data better than the previous model, and provides more accurate policy
responses than the previous version of the model.

This document describes the tasks undertaken as part of this effort as well as the results of
model calibration and validation.

EXPANDED TRAVEL ANALYSIS ZONE SYSTEM

Prior to undertaking the refreshing and updating of the core San Francisco Model
components, more zones were added to the San Francisco Model system. A total of 215
additional zones were added in San Francisco, and 294 additional zones were added outside
San Francisco. The purpose of increasing the number of zones and improving the spatial
resolution of the model was to provide greater model sensitivity in areas of the City
expected to experience significant population and employment growth in the coming
decades. These areas are primarily located on the Bayshore side of the City, including the
Bayview and Hunters Point neighborhoods, Candlestick, the Third Street corridor, Mission
Bay and South of Market. The original zone system within the city of San Francisco was
based on Census Journey-to-Work TAZs, and included many relatively large TAZs in the
areas identified, making detailed project analysis difficult. Within San Francisco, the new
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TAZ system is based on 2000 Census block group definitions. Where Census block groups
were too big, smaller TAZs are based on Census blocks. In some areas of the City, such as
the Presidio, Treasure Island, and Golden Gate Park, even the Census block definitions were
too large, and SFCTA staff manually disaggregated these areas into smaller TAZs.

The San Francisco Model’s geographic extent includes the entire Bay Area. For areas
outside San Francisco, the SF Model’s TAZs and networks are based on MTC’s regional
Baycast model. Since the original development of the San Francisco Model, MTC has
added more zones to the other eight Bay Area counties. These new TAZs outside San
Francisco have been incorporated into the new SF TAZ system, and are approximately the
size of census tracts. Figure 1 illustrates the new SF Model TAZ boundaries. Figure 2
illustrates the old SF Model TAZ boundaries.

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Figure 1: New SF Model TAZs

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