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NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey California , THESIS U. S. Coast Guard Fleet Mix Planning: A Decision Support System Prototype by Louis A. Cortez and Thomas Kaiser J. March 1991 Thesis Advisor: Hemant K. Bhargava Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. T256875 Unclassified SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOFTHISPAGE REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE la. REPORTSECURITYCLASSIFICATION 1b. RESTRICTIVEMARKINGS Unclassified 2a. SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONAUTHORITY 3. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYOFREPORT Approved forpublic release; distribution isunlimited. 2b. DECLASSfflCATION/DOWNGRADINGSCHEDULE 4 PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONREPORTNUMBER(S) 5. MONITORINGORGANIZATIONREPORTNUMBER(S) . NAMEOFPERFORMINGORGANIZATION 6b. OFFICESYMBOL 7a. NAMEOFMONITORINGORGANIZATION Naval PostgraduateSchool (IfApplicable) NavalPostgraduate School 37 6c. ADDRESS(city,state,andZIPcode) 7b. ADDRESS(city,slate,andZIPcode) Monterey, CA 93943-5000 Monterey,CA 93943-5000 8a. NAMEOFFUNDING/SPONSORING 6b. OFFICESYMBOL PROCUREMENTINSTRUMENTIDENTIFICATIONNUMBER ORGANIZATION (IfApplicable) U. S. CoastGuard, Commandant (G-AWP) 8c. ADDRESS(city,state,andZIPcode) 10. SOURCEOFFUNDINGNUMBERS PROGRAM PROJECT TASK WORKUNIT ELEMENTNO. NO. NO. ACCESSIONNO. 11. TITLE(IncludeSecurityClassification) U. S. COAST GUARD FLEET MIX PLANNING: A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM PROTOTYPE 12. PERSONALAUTHORS) Cortez,Louis A. and Kaiser, ThomasJ. 13a. TYPEOFREPORT 13b. TIMECOVERED 14. DATEOFREPORT(year,monthjay) 15. PAGECOUNT Master'sThesis from Sep 89 to Mar91 March 1991 _Z4 16. SUPPLEMENTARYNOTATION Theviewsexpressed in this thesisarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotreflecttheofficialpolicyorpositionoftheDepartmentof DefenseortheU.S. Government. 17. COSATICODES 18. SUBJECTTERMS (continueonreverse ifnecessaryandidentifybyblocknumber) FIELD GROUP SUBGROUP Decision Support System, DSS, Fleet Mix Planning, U. S. Coast Guard, Patrol Boats 19. ABSTRACT(Continueon reverse ifnecessaryandidentifybyblocknumber) The objective ofthis thesis is toanalyze the fleetmix planning problem, developan approach toevaluate alternative fleet mixes,and implementtheapproach in adecision supportsystem (DSS). Inparticular, thisresearch isconductedin thecontext oftheacquisition ofa mix ofpatrol boats to replace the aging PointClass patrol boats within the U. S. CoastGuard. The analysisofan alternative fleetmix involves,among otherthings, theevaluationofcost,activity and performance measures for thatfleetmix. Several analytic and forecasting modelsare used todeterminecosts andactivity measures forvarious fleetmixes, andsimulation gamesareplayed toassessexpectedmissionperformanceforeach mix underasetofmission scenarios. Arule- baseddeductivemodel isemployed todetermineand score theresponseofagiven fleetmix toeventsoccurringduringthe simulation. These modelsareimplemented andintegrated inadecision supportsystem whichcombines the mathematical models with adatabasesystem, anexpertsystem,and user interfacetools. Itis hoped thatrepeated useofthe system,analysisofthe alternative fleetmixes usinga largenumberofdatasets, andpost-evaluationanalysis andexplanations,will helpprovide the decision-makerinsightin totheproblem,and will facilitateajudicious decision. 20. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYOFABSTRACT 21. ABSTRACTSECURITYCLASSIFICATION D UN(XASSJFIED/UNLIMrTED SAMEASRPT. DTTCUSERS Unclassified • 22a. NAMEOFRESPONSIBLEINDIVIDUAL 22b. TELEPHONE(IncludeAreaCode) 22c. OFFICESYMBOL HemantK. Bhargava (408) 646-2264 AS/BH DD FORM 1473, 84 MAR 83 APReditionmaybeuseduntilexhausted SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOFTHISPAGE All othereditions are obsolete Unclassified Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. U. S. Coast Guard Fleet Mix Planning: A Decision Support System Prototype by Louis A. Cortez Lieutenant, United States Navy A&M B.S., Florida University, 1985 Thomas Kaiser J. Lieutenant Commander, United States Navy B.S., Michigan Technological University, 1977 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN INFORMATION SYSTEMS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL March 1991