Understanding Political Science Research Methods: The Challenge of Inference

250 Pages·2013·3.27 MB·English

by  Maryann Barakso

U nderstanding Political Science Research Methods
This text starts by explaining the fundamental goal of good political science
research—the ability to answer interesting and important questions by gen-
erating valid inferences about political phenomena. Before the text even dis-
cusses the process of developing a research question, the authors introduce the
reader to what it means to make an inference and the different challenges that
social scientists face when confronting this task. Only with this ultimate goal
in mind will students be able to ask appr opriate questions, conduct fruitful
literature reviews, select and execute the proper research design, and critically
evaluate the work of others.
The authors’ primary goal is to teach students to critically ev aluate their
own research designs and others’ and analyze the extent to which they over-
come the classic challenges to making infer ence: internal and external valid-
ity concerns, omitted variable bias, endogeneity, measurement, sampling, and
case selection errors, and poor research questions or theory. As such, students
will not only be better able to conduct political science research, but they will
also be more savvy consumers of the constant flo w of causal assertions that
they confront in scholarship, in the media, and in conversations with others.
Three themes run through Barakso, Sabet, and Schaffner’s text: minimizing
classic research problems to making valid inferences, effective presentation of
research results, and the nonlinear nature of the research process. Throughout
their academic years and later in their professional careers, students will need
to effectively convey various bits of information. Presentation skills gleaned
from this text will benefit students for a lifetime, whether they continue in
academia or in a professional career.
Several distinctive features make this book noteworthy:
■ A common set of examples thr eaded throughout the text giv e students
a common ground across chapters and expose them to a br oad range of
subfields in the discipline.
■ “When Things Go Wrong” boxes illustrate the nonlinear, “non-textbook”
reality of research.
■ “Inferences in the Media” boxes demonstrate the often false inferences and
poor social science in the way the popular press covers politics.
■ “Ethics of Conduct” boxes encourage students to think about ethical issues
at various stages of the research process.
■
Robust end-of-chapter exercises.
■ A companion website that gives students additional opportunities to fine
tune their understanding of the book’s material.
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Understanding
Political Science
Research Methods
Th e Challenge of Inference
Maryann Barakso
Daniel M. Sabet
Brian F. Schaff ner
Publisher: Craig Fowlie
Editor: Michael Kerns
Development Editor: Elizabeth Mills
Marketing Manager: Paul Reyes
Editorial Assistant: Darcy Bullock
Cover Design: John Maloney
Production Editor: Alf Symons
Composition: Apex CoVantage, LLC
First published 2014
by Routledge
711 Th ird Avenue, New York, NY 10017
and by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2014 Taylor & Francis
Th e right of Maryann Barakso, Daniel M. Sabet, and Brian F. Schaff ner to be identifi ed as authors of
this work has been asserted by them in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs
and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by
any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopy-
ing and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing
from the publishers.
Trademark notice : Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are
used only for identifi cation and explanation without intent to infringe.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Barakso, Maryann.
Understanding political science research methods : the challenge of inference /
Maryann Barakso, Daniel M. Sabet, Brian Schaff ner.
pages cm
1. Political science—Research. I. Title.
JA86.B28 2013
320.072—dc23 2013022170
ISBN: 978-0-415-89520-0 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-0-203-80125-3 (ebk)
Typeset in Adobe Garamond
“For Sarah and Ellie, with our hope that you always have a
passion for science.”
—Brian and Maryann
“For those who fi rst inspired a love of learning, Jeanne and
Sabet Abdou Sabet.”
—Dan
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Contents
Preface xi
Acknowledgments xv
Introduction 1
Th e Role of the Logic of Inference in Political Science Research 1
Th e Challenge of Inference and the Advancement of Knowledge 2
Previewing a Few Principles Intrinsic to Meeting the Challenge
of Inference 4
Th e Plan of the Book 6
Key Terms 8
SECTION I
Establishing the Framework 9
1 The Challenge of Inference 11
Th ree Additional Examples 13
Some Basic Terminology 15
What Is an Inference? 18
Th e Challenge of Inference 19
Th e Importance of Th eory 27
Summarizing Common Th reats to Inference 29
Evaluating Inferences 30
Key Terms 32
Appendix: A Personal Example of the Challenges of Inference 33
vii
CONTENTS
2 The Research Question 36
What Makes for a Good Research Question? 37
Beginning the Research Process: What Do You Want to Know? 41
What Do Scholars Already Know? Th e Core of a Research
Question: What Is the Controversy, Debate, or Puzzle? 46
Keeping the Big Picture in Mind: Other Factors to Consider as
You Refi ne Your Question. How Will You Execute the Study? 53
Summing Up: Th e Research Question 55
Key Terms 55
3 Linking Theory and Inference 56
What Is Th eory? Why Are Th eories So Important and So Valuable? 57
What Characterizes a Good Th eory? 59
Incorporating Th eory into Your Study: the Literature Review 67
Two Examples of Th eory Building 74
Taking Alternative Th eories Seriously: What Do You Do When
Your Th eories and Hypotheses Don’t Match Your Findings? 78
Summing Up: Th eory and Inference 80
Key Terms 80
SECTION II
A Menu of Approaches 81
4 The Challenge of Descriptive Inference 83
Conceptualization 84
Diff erent Types of Data 86
Operationalization and Measurement Error 89
Operationalization and Sampling Error 95
Making Descriptive Inferences and Presenting Data 105
Summing Up 113
Key Terms 114
5 Experiments 116
What Is an Experiment? 118
Why Control Means Stronger Inferences 119
Types of Experiments 122
Designing the Experiment 136
Analyzing and Presenting Results from an Experiment 138
Avoiding Mistakes in Your Experiment 141
Natural Experiments 143
Conclusion 147
Key Terms 148
viii
CONTENTS
6 Large-n Observational Studies 149
Th e Logic of Large-n Studies: a Means Comparison 150
Multivariate Linear Regression 154
Tools for Categorical Data: Cross-Tabulation and Logistic Regression 165
Reverse-Causality and Longitudinal Analysis 170
Conducting Your Own Large-n Study 172
Conclusion 175
Key Terms 176
7 Small-n Observational Studies 177
Mimicking Experiments through a “Most Similar Systems
Design” 179
Other Approaches with Other Objectives 188
Tools of the Trade in Qualitative Research 193
Designing Small-n Research Studies 199
Conclusion 204
Key Terms 204
8 Conclusion 205
Developing Skills in the Approach You Choose 206
Considering a Multi-Method (or Mixed-Method) Approach 206
You’ve Completed Your Study, So Now What? 209
Above All Else: Remember the C hallenge of Inference 221
Key Terms 224
Index 225
ix