Table Of ContentUNDERSTANDING
COMPLEX ECOSYSTEM
DYNAMICS
A Systems and Engineering
Perspective
UNDERSTANDING
COMPLEX ECOSYSTEM
DYNAMICS
A Systems and Engineering
Perspective
WILLIAM S. YACKINOUS
AMSTERDAM (cid:129) BOSTON (cid:129) HEIDELBERG (cid:129) LONDON
NEW YORK (cid:129) OXFORD (cid:129) PARIS (cid:129) SAN DIEGO
SAN FRANCISCO (cid:129) SINGAPORE (cid:129) SYDNEY (cid:129) TOKYO
Academic Press is an imprint of Elsevier
AcademicPressisanimprintofElsevier
125LondonWall,London,EC2Y5AS,UK
525BStreet,Suite1800,SanDiego,CA92101-4495,USA
225WymanStreet,Waltham,MA02451,USA
TheBoulevard,LangfordLane,Kidlington,OxfordOX51GB,UK
Copyright©2015ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved.
Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyany
means,electronicormechanical,includingphotocopying,recording,oranyinformation
storageandretrievalsystem,withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.Detailson
howtoseekpermission,furtherinformationaboutthePublisher’spermissionspolicies
andourarrangementswithorganizationssuchastheCopyrightClearanceCenterand
theCopyrightLicensingAgency,canbefoundatourwebsite:www.elsevier.com/
permissions.
Thisbookandtheindividualcontributionscontainedinitareprotectedundercopyright
bythePublisher(otherthanasmaybenotedherein).
Notices
Knowledgeandbestpracticeinthisfieldareconstantlychanging.Asnewresearchand
experiencebroadenourunderstanding,changesinresearchmethods,professional
practices,ormedicaltreatmentmaybecomenecessary.
Practitionersandresearchersmustalwaysrelyontheirownexperienceandknowledge
inevaluatingandusinganyinformation,methods,compounds,orexperimentsdescribed
herein.Inusingsuchinformationormethodstheyshouldbemindfuloftheirownsafety
andthesafetyofothers,includingpartiesforwhomtheyhaveaprofessionalresponsibility.
Tothefullestextentofthelaw,neitherthePublishernortheauthors,contributors,or
editors,assumeanyliabilityforanyinjuryand/ordamagetopersonsorpropertyasa
matterofproductsliability,negligenceorotherwise,orfromanyuseoroperationofany
methods,products,instructions,orideascontainedinthematerialherein.
ISBN:978-0-12-802031-9
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress
BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData
AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary
ForinformationonallAcademicPresspublications
visitourwebsiteathttp://store.elsevier.com/
CoverCredit:JoyceYackinous
PREFACE
“Lookdeep,deepintonature,andthenyouwillunderstandeverythingbetter.”
AlbertEinstein1
Ihavehada34-yearprofessionalcareerasasystemsengineeratBellLabo-
ratories.Originally, The BellTelephone Laboratorieswas theresearchand
developmentarmoftheBellSystemintheUnitedStates.Fromthe1920sto
about2000,BellLabswasacknowledgedbymanytobethepremierR&D
labsintheworld.Theterm“systemsengineering”wascoinedatBellLab-
oratories in the 1940s. Throughout my career, I worked to solve systems
problemsforBellLabsandforitsclientsacrosstheUnitedStatesandaround
the world. During that time, I acquired a very significant set of skills and
perspectiveswithrespecttothepracticeofsystemsengineeringandthesys-
tems approach. In my Bell Labs work, I focused on building human-made
systems(somewouldsay“artificial”systems).Ihavealwaysthought,how-
ever,thatthissamesetofskillsandperspectivescouldbeappliedveryben-
eficially to understanding natural systems—specifically natural ecological
systems. After taking early retirement from Bell Labs in 2001, I began to
do just that. I began to follow Einstein’s admonition (above) in earnest.
Myfirsttaskwastoexplicitlydefineanddescribethesystemsandsystems
engineering skillset thatIhadacquiredduring mycareer.The scienceand
engineering working environment at Bell Labs was outstanding and full of
opportunities. Over the years, I was fortunate2 to be in a position to earn
everymajorBellLabstechnicalawardandhonorariumincludingthehighest
and most prestigious—Bell Labs Fellow. As a result, I frequently had the
opportunity to give talks and seminars on systems engineering both inside
Bell Labs and at major universities. I gave presentations, on behalf of Bell
Laboratories, to graduate engineering and computer science students and
facultyatStanfordUniversity,UCBerkeley,CalTech,UCLA,University
ofArizona,UniversityofTexas,PurdueUniversity,andOxfordUniversity.
Myobjectiveinthesevarioustalkswastodescribemyviewoftherequired
skills and perspectives necessary for the successful practice of systems
1AlbertEinstein,inTheQuotableEinstein,PrincetonUniversityPress,1996,p.32.
2Ihavefoundthatsuchopportunityandgoodfortuneisdirectlyrelatedtohavingverygoodbosses.
TheywereplentifulatBellLabs.I’vehadsomeofthebest.
ix
x Preface
engineering.Beginningwiththematerialcomprisingthetalks,Ihavedevel-
oped “A Systems Engineering Skills Framework.” We will discuss that in
Chapter 1.
Mynexttask—andmyprimaryongoingworkobjective—wastheappli-
cation of those systems and engineering skills to increase understanding of
complex natural systems. Given the state of our planet’s environment, I
decidedthatthemostimportantandrelevantnaturalsystemsformetocon-
siderwereecologicalsystems.Ineededtoengage,therefore,inverysubstan-
tial ecological system study and research. To that end, I pursued a PhD in
EcologyattheUniversityofGeorgia’sEugeneP.OdumSchoolofEcology.
Dr.EugeneOdumwasaveryinfluentialecologist,apioneerintheareaof
systemsecology,andafounderoftheecologyprogramattheUniversityof
Georgia.Dr.BernardC.PattenwasmyPhDmajorprofessorandmydoc-
toral committee chairperson. He is a systems ecologist and is recognized as
oneofthepremierecologicalsystemmodelersandecologicalnetworkana-
lystsinthefield.IstudiedwithDr.PattenandtheSystemsandEngineering
Ecology group—an interdisciplinary group of professors and graduate stu-
dents at the University of Georgia. I received my PhD degree in Ecology
in December 2010. My doctoral research and dissertation on “Emerging
Principles of Ecological Network Dynamics” are prominently reflected in
this book.
AsIhave explained,the systemsandengineering skills andperspectives
thatIacquiredatBellLabsareabsolutelyessentialtomyecosystemresearch.
My related systems and engineering academic background also plays an
important role. My early degrees—bachelors and masters—are in electrical
engineering.Mymaster’sdegreework(andearlyBellLabswork)included
the areas of communications theory, signal processing theory, information
theory,controltheory,andnetworktheory.MymorerecentPhDacademic
work has enhanced my understanding of the various important subsets of
complexsystemstheory.Allofthesescientificdisciplinesandtheirassociated
methods and tools contribute to my current complex system dynamics
work. You will notice that throughout the book.
Highly complex systems (including ecosystems) take the form of net-
works.Myworkaddresseschallengingandopenissuesofcomplexsystem
network dynamics. It pushes boundaries and explores frontiers. Thus far,
mainstream network science has focused primarily on understanding net-
work structure. Network dynamics is a much tougher issue. Melanie
Mitchell,inherbookoncomplexity,hassaid,“Tounderstandthedynam-
ics ... network science will have to characterize networks in which the
Preface xi
nodes and links continually change in both time and space. This will be a
majorchallenge,tosaytheleast”(Mitchell,2009).DuncanWattshassaid,
“Next to the mysteries of dynamics on a network ... the problems of
networks that we have encountered up to now are just pebbles on the
seashore” (Watts, 2003). In this book, we take on the challenge of
understanding complex system network dynamics—specifically complex
ecosystem network dynamics.
Thecomplexsystemdynamicsresearchdescribedinthebookisinnova-
tive and unique in many respects. The full set of experiences, approaches,
methods, and tools employed here have never before been applied to eco-
logical systems (or to complex systems in general). The work represents a
“freshlook”atecologicalnetworkdynamics.Ihavebegunwithsubstantial
systems and engineering experience and knowledge; combined that with
PhD-levelstudyofecology;andfurther,havesupplementedthoseresources
with additional study of complex systems theory in the areas of networks,
nonlineardynamics,cellularautomata,androughness(fractals).Ihaveassim-
ilated,extended,andcombinedalloftheseresourcesinnewwaystocreatea
fresh view of complex system dynamics. That process is the working defi-
nitionofinnovationandcreativity.Creativityis“theabilitytodiscovernew
relationships, to look at subjects from new perspectives, and to form new
combinations from two or more concepts already in the mind” (Evans,
1991). Scientific discovery often arises from “picking up the stick from
theotherend”(Butterfield,1960).Theotherend,inthiscase,isthesystems
and engineering perspective.
This book clearly takes an interdisciplinary perspective and contains
many newideas thatsometimes donot represent merely small, incremental
changes to existing scientific paradigms. Although such new perspectives
andideasareoftennecessarytopushresearchboundaries,theyarenotalways
easilyacceptedbynaturalscienceinvestigatorswhoprefermoretraditional
approaches and paradigms. (Thomas Kuhn (1996), in his classic book The
Structure of Scientific Revolutions, comprehensively describes these effects.)
Someoftheideasandhypothesesinthebook,therefore,maybecontrover-
sial.Thatcircumstancemaygenerateanincreasedfocusonimportantcom-
plex system issues and motivate scientists across disciplines to ponder and
explore these issues. In my view, that would be a very desirable outcome
ofthebook.Itwouldhelptofurtherourcollectiveunderstandingofcom-
plex system dynamics.
Throughoutthisbook,Ireferenceandquotealotofverysmartpeople.
Except for afew,I knowthese peopleonly by theirwork.Their workhas
xii Preface
been exceedingly helpful. I quite agree with the sentiment that Thoreau3
expressed long ago in his Journals: “He who speaks with most authority
onagivensubjectisnotignorantofwhathasbeensaidbyhispredecessors.
He will take his place in a regular order, and substantially add his own
knowledge to the knowledge of previous generations.” I certainly do not
claim that I speak with “most authority”—but I am pleased to have the
opportunity to express my views in this book.
We began this preface with some advice from Albert Einstein. I have
attemptedtolookdeepintonature.IthinkthatnowIreallydounderstand
everything better. I’m still working on it ....
Bill Yackinous
November 2014
3 HenryDavidThoreau,Journals,December31,1859.
INTRODUCTION
Theprimarypurposeofmyworkinthisbookistoincreasetheunderstand-
ingofcomplexsystemdynamics—inparticular,complexecologicalsystem
dynamics. My systems and engineering perspective is foundational to this
effort.Ibeginbydefininganddescribingpertinentsystemsandengineering
skillsandpractices,includinganexplanationofthesystemsapproachandits
majorelements.Consistentwiththesystemsapproach,Ithenformulatean
ecosystem dynamics functionality-based framework to guidemy investiga-
tions.Complexsystemstheory,acrossmanysubjectmatterareas,iscrucialto
theworkofthisbook.Icoverrelevantnetworktheory,nonlineardynamics
theory, cellular automata theory, and roughness (fractal) theory in some
detail. This material serves as an important resource as we proceed in the
book.Next,inthecontextofalloftheforegoinginvestigation,Iconstruct
aviewof thecharacteristics of ecological networkdynamics.This view,in
turn,isthebasisforthecentralhypothesisofthebook,i.e.,ecologicalnet-
works are ever-changing networks with propagation dynamics that are
punctuated,local-to-global,andperhapsmostimportantlyfractal.Toanalyze
andfullytestthishypothesisIdefine,design,anddevelopaninnovativeeco-
logicalnetworkdynamicsmodel.Themodelingapproachseekstoemulate
features of real-world ecological networks. The approach does not make a
priori assumptions about ecological network dynamics, but rather lets the
dynamicsdevelopasthemodelsimulationruns.Modelanalysisresultscor-
roborate the hypothesis. Additional important insights and principles are
suggestedbythemodelanalysisresultsandbytheothersupportinginvesti-
gations of this book—and may serve as a basis for going-forward complex
systemdynamicsresearch,notonlyforecologicalsystemsbutalsoforcom-
plex systems in general.
“MAP” OF THE BOOK
Thebookhassixmajorpartscomprisedofnineteenchapters.Thereisalso
an appendix. An overview of each of the book’s components follows.
Part I The Systems and Engineering Perspective
PartI(Chapters1through4)providesacomprehensivelookatthesystems
and engineering perspective that is foundational to the work of this book.
xiii
xiv Introduction
Chapter 1 describes my view of systems engineering skills, the systems
approach, and the associated systems perspectives that can be beneficially
appliedtounderstandinghighlycomplexnaturalsystems.Chapter2discusses
additionalviewsonsystemsthinkingfromthescientificcommunity—aswell
as more of my own views. In Chapter 3, I detail three important concepts
that I consider to be major elements of the systems approach. They are: a
blend of synthesis and analysis; network thinking; and the systems triad.
Note that traditional scientific research (including ecological research) is
most often conducted using a reductionist approach rather than a systems
approach.Chapter4addressesasignificantpotentialproblemwiththeindis-
criminate use of reductionism, i.e., reductionism can isolate the target of
investigation from the larger system in which it resides and thereby cause
information loss.
Part II A Function-Structure-Process Framework for
Ecological System Dynamics
In Part II (Chapters 5 through 7), I construct and describe a functionality-
basedframeworkthatprovidesaunifyingcontextforexploringprinciplesof
ecosystemdynamics.Insystemsengineering,Ihavefoundthatsuchaframe-
work is essential for specifying and guiding the design and development of
artificial (human-made) systems. In systems ecology, such a framework is
equally essential for understanding natural systems. Chapter 5 provides an
overviewofthisecosystemdynamicsframework—whichconsistsofopera-
tional, developmental, and core functional tiers. In Chapter 6, one of the
core ecological system functions, regulation/adaptation, is discussed in
detail. Chapter 7 addresses the developmental tier. I make the case that
thespeciesevolutionfunctionprovidesthebasisforauniversaldevelopment
model. The operational tier becomes our focus in Parts IV and V of the
book. (All of the elements of the framework are discussed, to varying
degrees, throughout the book.)
Part III Complex Systems Theory: Networks, Nonlinear
Dynamics, Cellular Automata, and Fractals (Roughness)
InPartIII(Chapters8through12),weconductanextensivereviewofthe
pertinent extant complex systems theory. Chapters 8 and 9 cover network
theory. Those two chapters address the structure aspects and the dynamics
aspects, respectively, of complex networks. Chapter 10 reviews nonlinear
dynamics theory. Chapter 11 is about cellular automata investigations and
associatedemergingcomplexsystemprinciples.Chapter12addressesfractals
Introduction xv
(roughness theory). In some areas, I provide additional commentary based
on my systems, engineering, and ecological perspectives. The material of
PartIIIservesasavaluableandnecessaryresourceforourwork.Application
and, in some cases, extensions of the theory contribute to a “synthesis of
ideas” that is pursued in the subsequent parts of the book.
Part IV A View of the Characteristics of Ecological
Network Dynamics
Basedonknowledgeofthesystemsapproach(PartI),theecosystemdynam-
icsframework (PartII), and applicablecomplex systemstheory (PartIII), a
viewofthecharacteristicsofecologicalnetworkdynamicsisconstructedin
PartIV(Chapters13–15).First,wedoabitmoreinvestigationtoproperly
set thestage. Chapter 13addresses thehuman perceptualcontext in which
weareworking,especiallythehumantendencytoseesmoothness,stability,
andcontinuityinthenaturalworld—evenwhentheyareabsent.Chapter14
considers the nature of order and complexity in ecological systems—and
their relationships—to gain additional insights into the behavior of highly
complexsystems.Nowwearereadytoproceedwiththedynamicscharac-
teristics.Chapter15describesacomprehensiveviewofthebehavioralchar-
acteristicsofecologicalnetworkdynamics,whichisthebasisforthecentral
hypothesisofthebook:ecologicalnetworksareever-changing,“flickering”
networks with propagation dynamics that are punctuated, fractal, local-to-
global, and enabled by indirect effects.
Part V Modeling Ecological Network Dynamics
and the Generation and Analysis of Results
In Part V (Chapters 16–18), I describe the development of an innovative
ecologicalnetworkdynamicsmodel,thegenerationofresults,andtheanal-
ysis of those results in order to test our central characteristics hypothesis.
Model requirements are the subject of Chapter 16. Model software design
and development are covered in Chapter 17. The software implements
the ecological network operational model, the required analysis activities,
andtheneededgraphicscapabilities.Chapter18isallaboutresults.Ecolog-
ical network dynamics results are generated, displayed, and analyzed.
The specific dynamics results categories are: operational propagation flow;
network propagation events; propagation path length; indirect effects; and
network connectivity. The characteristics hypothesis is fully tested—and
corroborated.
