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Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels PDF

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TRANSITIONS TO ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES AND FUELS Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels TRANSITIONS TO ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES AND FUELS Committee on Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract DE-DT001481, TO#2, between the National Academy of Sci- ences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-26852-3 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-26852-4 Library of Congress Control Number: 2013932897 Copies of this report are available Additional copies of this report are available in limited supply, free of charge, from: for sale from: Board on Energy and Environmental Systems The National Academies Press National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, NW 500 Fifth Street, NW Keck 360 Keck W934 Washington, DC 20001 Washington, DC 20001 (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (202) 334-3344 http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2013 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels COMMITTTEE ON TRANSITIONS TO ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES AND FUELS DOUGLAS M. CHAPIN, Chair, NAE,1 MPR Associates, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia RALPH BRODD, Broddarp of Nevada, Henderson GARY COWGER, GLC Ventures, LLC, Bloomfield Hills, Michigan JOHN M. DECICCO, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor GEORGE C. EADS, Charles River Associates (retired), Washington, District of Columbia RAMON ESPINO, University of Virginia, Charlottesville JOHN M. GERMAN, International Council for Clean Transportation, Ann Arbor, Michigan DAVID L. GREENE, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Knoxville, Tennessee JUDITH GREENWALD, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, Arlington, Virginia L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, NAE, Arkema, Inc. (retired), Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania JOHN HEYWOOD, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge VIRGINIA McCONNELL, Resources for the Future, Washington, District of Columbia STEPHEN J. McGOVERN, PetroTech Consultants LLC, Voorhees, New Jersey GENE NEMANICH, ChevronTexaco Corporation (retired), Scottsdale, Arizona JOHN O’DELL, Edmunds, Inc., Orange, California ROBERT F. SAWYER, NAE, University of California, Berkeley CHRISTINE S. SLOANE, Sloane Solutions, LLC, Kewadin, Michigan WILLIAM H. WALSH, JR., Consultant, McLean, Virginia MICHAEL E. WEBBER, University of Texas at Austin Project Staff ALAN T. CRANE, Senior Scientist and Study Director JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems JONNA HAMILTON, Program Officer (until December 2011) EVONNE TANG, Senior Program Officer (beginning December 2011) DAVID W. COOKE, Associate Program Officer ALICE V. WILLIAMS, Senior Program Assistant LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator DANA CAINES, Financial Manager Consultants DAN MESZLER, Meszler Engineering Services STEVE PLOTKIN, Argonne National Laboratory MARC MELAINA, Consultant MICHAEL P. RAMAGE, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired) JAMES R. KATZER, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired) GARY W. ROGERS, FEV, Inc. DEAN TOMAZIC, FEV, Inc. AARON BIRCKETT, FEV, Inc. 1 NAE = Member, National Academy of Engineering. v Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ANDREW BROWN, JR., Chair, NAE,1 Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan WILLIAM BANHOLZER, NAE, Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan MARILYN BROWN, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta WILLIAM CAVANAUGH III, Progress Energy (retired), Raleigh, North Carolina PAUL DeCOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia NARAIN HINGORANI, NAE, Independent Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California ROBERT HUGGETT, Independent Consultant, Seaford, Virginia DEBBIE NIEMEIER, University of California, Davis DANIEL NOCERA, NAS,2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey DAN REICHER, Stanford University, Stanford, California BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, Daimler-Chrysler (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan GARY ROGERS, FEV, Inc., Auburn Hills, Michigan ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas MARK THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York City Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director DANA CAINES, Financial Associate DAVID W. COOKE, Associate Program Officer ALAN T. CRANE, Senior Scientist K. JOHN HOLMES, Associate Director LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator ALICE WILLIAMS, Senior Program Assistant JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant 1 National Academy of Engineering. 2 National Academy of Sciences. vvii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels Preface The U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet is responsible for about half the petroleum consumed in this nation and about 17 percent of its greenhouse gas emissions. Concerns over national security and climate change have increased interest in alternative ways to power the fleet. Many technologies, with widely varying levels of current capability, cost, and com- mercialization, can reduce light-duty vehicle petroleum consumption, and most of these also reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, any transition to achieve high levels of reduction is likely to take decades. The timeframe of this study goes out to 2050. Project- ing the cost and performance of technologies out that far entails many uncertainties. The technical issues alone are extraordinarily complex and interrelated. Further, its statement of task also asked the Committee on Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels to consider the related policy options. The committee’s analyses, while exploratory and not definitive, having significant uncer- tainty, indicate that the costs and benefits of large reductions in petroleum consumption and greenhouse gas emissions will both be substantial. Its work also suggests that policy will be an essential element in achieving these reductions. Alternative vehicles and some fuels will be more expensive than their current equivalents, at least for several decades, and advanced technology could be used for increased power or other purposes rather than be focused solely on reducing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, it is criti- cal to have a clear vision of the options and how they might be implemented if progress is to be made efficiently with a minimum of disruption and a maximum of net benefits. This report explores those options and the related issues, and it sheds light on the decisions the nation may be making. The members of the study committee worked extraordinarily hard on this task. I am very grateful for their efforts. They represent a remarkably broad and accomplished group of experts. Given the complex nature of the task at hand, producing a report that was sat- isfactory in every detail to every member was challenging. Given the difficulty we have had in achieving consensus, I will not attempt to summarize the result here. The report speaks for itself. The committee and I greatly appreciate the efforts made by our highly qualified consul- tants and the many others who contributed directly to our deliberations via presentations and discussions and the many authors on whose work we relied. The committee operated under the auspices of the NRC’s Board on Energy and Envi- ronmental Systems. We owe a special debt of gratitude to James Zucchetto, Alan Crane, Evonne Tang, David Cooke, and Alice Williams of the NRC staff. In spite of what must have vii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels viii PREFACE seemed like an endless succession of in-person and conference call consultations among the full committee and working groups, meetings to gather information, and revision of the text, their energy and professionalism never wavered. The committee and I personally offer our heartfelt thanks. Douglas M. Chapin, Chair Committee on Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels Acknowledgments The Committee on Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels is grateful to the many individuals who contributed their time and efforts to this National Research Council (NRC) study. The presentations at committee meetings provided valuable information and insights that enhanced the committee’s understanding of the technologies and barriers involved. The committee thanks the following individuals who provided briefings: Patrick Davis, U.S. Department of Energy, Phillip Patterson, U.S. Department of Energy, Jacob Ward, U.S. Department of Energy, David Howell, U.S. Department of Energy, Jay Braitsch, U.S. Department of Energy, Diana Bauer, U.S. Department of Energy, Sunita Satyapal, U.S. Department of Energy, Fred Joseck, U.S. Department of Energy, David Danielson, ARPA-E, Austin Brown, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Andy Aden, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, David Green, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Steve Plotkin, Argonne National Laboratory, Bill Charmley, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Robert Fri, Consultant, Mike Ramage, Consultant, Robbie Diamond, Electrification Coalition, Mark Finley, BP, Alan Krupnick, Resources for the Future, Virginia McConnell, Resources for the Future, Linda Capuano, Marathon Oil Company, Sascha Simon, Mercedes Benz, Ben Knight, Honda, Dan Sperling, University of California, Davis, and Reiko Takemasa, Pacific Gas and Electric Company. The committee owes special thanks to Michael Ramage (NAE) and James Katzer (NAE), who generously volunteered their time and expertise to assist in many complex and difficult issues. This report has benefited greatly from their contributions. The members of the com- mittee and the staff deeply regret the death of Jim Katzer in November 2012. ix Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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For a century, almost all light-duty vehicles (LDVs) have been powered by internal combustion engines operating on petroleum fuels. Energy security concerns about petroleum imports and the effect of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on global climate are driving interest in alternatives. Transitions to
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