Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels

395 Pages·2013·16.49 MB·English

by  Committee on Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels

TRANSITIONS TO
ALTERNATIVE
VEHICLES
AND FUELS
Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
TRANSITIONS TO
ALTERNATIVE
VEHICLES
AND FUELS
Committee on Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
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This study was supported by Contract DE-DT001481, TO#2, between the National Academy of Sci-
ences and the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations
expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the
organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
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Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
COMMITTTEE ON TRANSITIONS TO ALTERNATIVE VEHICLES AND FUELS
DOUGLAS M. CHAPIN, Chair, NAE,1 MPR Associates, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia
RALPH BRODD, Broddarp of Nevada, Henderson
GARY COWGER, GLC Ventures, LLC, Bloomfield Hills, Michigan
JOHN M. DECICCO, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
GEORGE C. EADS, Charles River Associates (retired), Washington, District of
Columbia
RAMON ESPINO, University of Virginia, Charlottesville
JOHN M. GERMAN, International Council for Clean Transportation, Ann Arbor,
Michigan
DAVID L. GREENE, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Knoxville, Tennessee
JUDITH GREENWALD, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, Arlington, Virginia
L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, NAE, Arkema, Inc. (retired), Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania
JOHN HEYWOOD, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
VIRGINIA McCONNELL, Resources for the Future, Washington, District of Columbia
STEPHEN J. McGOVERN, PetroTech Consultants LLC, Voorhees, New Jersey
GENE NEMANICH, ChevronTexaco Corporation (retired), Scottsdale, Arizona
JOHN O’DELL, Edmunds, Inc., Orange, California
ROBERT F. SAWYER, NAE, University of California, Berkeley
CHRISTINE S. SLOANE, Sloane Solutions, LLC, Kewadin, Michigan
WILLIAM H. WALSH, JR., Consultant, McLean, Virginia
MICHAEL E. WEBBER, University of Texas at Austin
Project Staff
ALAN T. CRANE, Senior Scientist and Study Director
JAMES J. ZUCCHETTO, Director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems
JONNA HAMILTON, Program Officer (until December 2011)
EVONNE TANG, Senior Program Officer (beginning December 2011)
DAVID W. COOKE, Associate Program Officer
ALICE V. WILLIAMS, Senior Program Assistant
LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator
DANA CAINES, Financial Manager
Consultants
DAN MESZLER, Meszler Engineering Services
STEVE PLOTKIN, Argonne National Laboratory
MARC MELAINA, Consultant
MICHAEL P. RAMAGE, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company
(retired)
JAMES R. KATZER, NAE, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company (retired)
GARY W. ROGERS, FEV, Inc.
DEAN TOMAZIC, FEV, Inc.
AARON BIRCKETT, FEV, Inc.
1 NAE = Member, National Academy of Engineering.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS
ANDREW BROWN, JR., Chair, NAE,1 Delphi Corporation, Troy, Michigan
WILLIAM BANHOLZER, NAE, Dow Chemical Company, Midland, Michigan
MARILYN BROWN, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
WILLIAM CAVANAUGH III, Progress Energy (retired), Raleigh, North Carolina
PAUL DeCOTIS, Long Island Power Authority, Albany, New York
CHRISTINE EHLIG-ECONOMIDES, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station
SHERRI GOODMAN, CNA, Alexandria, Virginia
NARAIN HINGORANI, NAE, Independent Consultant, Los Altos Hills, California
ROBERT HUGGETT, Independent Consultant, Seaford, Virginia
DEBBIE NIEMEIER, University of California, Davis
DANIEL NOCERA, NAS,2 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
DAN REICHER, Stanford University, Stanford, California
BERNARD ROBERTSON, NAE, Daimler-Chrysler (retired), Bloomfield Hills,
Michigan
GARY ROGERS, FEV, Inc., Auburn Hills, Michigan
ALISON SILVERSTEIN, Consultant, Pflugerville, Texas
MARK THIEMENS, NAS, University of California, San Diego
RICHARD WHITE, Oppenheimer & Company, New York City
Staff
JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director
DANA CAINES, Financial Associate
DAVID W. COOKE, Associate Program Officer
ALAN T. CRANE, Senior Scientist
K. JOHN HOLMES, Associate Director
LaNITA JONES, Administrative Coordinator
ALICE WILLIAMS, Senior Program Assistant
JONATHAN YANGER, Senior Project Assistant
1 National Academy of Engineering.
2 National Academy of Sciences.
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Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels

Preface
The U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet is responsible for about half the petroleum consumed
in this nation and about 17 percent of its greenhouse gas emissions. Concerns over national
security and climate change have increased interest in alternative ways to power the fleet.
Many technologies, with widely varying levels of current capability, cost, and com-
mercialization, can reduce light-duty vehicle petroleum consumption, and most of these
also reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, any transition to achieve high levels of
reduction is likely to take decades. The timeframe of this study goes out to 2050. Project-
ing the cost and performance of technologies out that far entails many uncertainties. The
technical issues alone are extraordinarily complex and interrelated. Further, its statement of
task also asked the Committee on Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels to consider
the related policy options.
The committee’s analyses, while exploratory and not definitive, having significant uncer-
tainty, indicate that the costs and benefits of large reductions in petroleum consumption
and greenhouse gas emissions will both be substantial. Its work also suggests that policy
will be an essential element in achieving these reductions. Alternative vehicles and some
fuels will be more expensive than their current equivalents, at least for several decades, and
advanced technology could be used for increased power or other purposes rather than be
focused solely on reducing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, it is criti-
cal to have a clear vision of the options and how they might be implemented if progress is
to be made efficiently with a minimum of disruption and a maximum of net benefits. This
report explores those options and the related issues, and it sheds light on the decisions the
nation may be making.
The members of the study committee worked extraordinarily hard on this task. I am
very grateful for their efforts. They represent a remarkably broad and accomplished group
of experts. Given the complex nature of the task at hand, producing a report that was sat-
isfactory in every detail to every member was challenging. Given the difficulty we have
had in achieving consensus, I will not attempt to summarize the result here. The report
speaks for itself.
The committee and I greatly appreciate the efforts made by our highly qualified consul-
tants and the many others who contributed directly to our deliberations via presentations
and discussions and the many authors on whose work we relied.
The committee operated under the auspices of the NRC’s Board on Energy and Envi-
ronmental Systems. We owe a special debt of gratitude to James Zucchetto, Alan Crane,
Evonne Tang, David Cooke, and Alice Williams of the NRC staff. In spite of what must have
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Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
viii PREFACE
seemed like an endless succession of in-person and conference call consultations among
the full committee and working groups, meetings to gather information, and revision of
the text, their energy and professionalism never wavered. The committee and I personally
offer our heartfelt thanks.
Douglas M. Chapin, Chair
Committee on Transitions to
Alternative Vehicles and Fuels
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels

Acknowledgments
The Committee on Transitions to Alternative Vehicles and Fuels is grateful to the many
individuals who contributed their time and efforts to this National Research Council (NRC)
study.
The presentations at committee meetings provided valuable information and insights
that enhanced the committee’s understanding of the technologies and barriers involved.
The committee thanks the following individuals who provided briefings:
Patrick Davis, U.S. Department of Energy,
Phillip Patterson, U.S. Department of Energy,
Jacob Ward, U.S. Department of Energy,
David Howell, U.S. Department of Energy,
Jay Braitsch, U.S. Department of Energy,
Diana Bauer, U.S. Department of Energy,
Sunita Satyapal, U.S. Department of Energy,
Fred Joseck, U.S. Department of Energy,
David Danielson, ARPA-E,
Austin Brown, National Renewable Energy Laboratory,
Andy Aden, National Renewable Energy Laboratory,
David Green, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
Steve Plotkin, Argonne National Laboratory,
Bill Charmley, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,
Robert Fri, Consultant,
Mike Ramage, Consultant,
Robbie Diamond, Electrification Coalition,
Mark Finley, BP,
Alan Krupnick, Resources for the Future,
Virginia McConnell, Resources for the Future,
Linda Capuano, Marathon Oil Company,
Sascha Simon, Mercedes Benz,
Ben Knight, Honda,
Dan Sperling, University of California, Davis, and
Reiko Takemasa, Pacific Gas and Electric Company.
The committee owes special thanks to Michael Ramage (NAE) and James Katzer (NAE),
who generously volunteered their time and expertise to assist in many complex and difficult
issues. This report has benefited greatly from their contributions. The members of the com-
mittee and the staff deeply regret the death of Jim Katzer in November 2012.
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