Tools for Decision Making: A Practical Guide for Local Government

529 Pages·2021·29.882 MB·English

by  David N. Ammons, Dale J. Roenigk

“Finally, a no-nonsense, how-to book that takes the fear out of statistics
and analysis. Tools for Decision Making is an ideal book to use in masters-level
research methods classes where the emphasis is on equipping students with
basic tools of analysis that they can use in their careers.”
— David Schultz, Distinguished University Professor of Political Science
and Legal Studies at Hamline University, USA
“By incorporating Excel instructions into the collection of analytic
techniques presented in Tools for Decision Making, the authors have made this
book a must-have. Every local government researcher/analyst in the world
has access to Excel, so this feature alone makes this text invaluable. The
online Excel templates that accompany the third edition are a major selling
point; their availability for student use and for subsequent use on the job
make this book a necessity on one’s bookshelf.”
— Hunter Bacot, Graduate Program Director and Professor of Political Science
at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro, USA
“Tools for Decision Making is a gold mine of ideas for improving services. It
makes difficult-sounding management techniques very understandable. I
caution owners of the book to be leery of those who seek to borrow it; else
it may go the same way as the trusty hammer and saw.”
— W. Bartley Hildreth, Professor at the Center for State and
Local Finance / Department of Public Management and Policy at
Georgia State University, USA
“The analytical tools described by Ammons and Roenigk demystify the
management of complex organizations. This book can serve as your tool
box of ideas and models for continuous improvement.”
— Russell Blackburn, City Manager at the City of Port St. Lucie,
Florida, USA
“Tools for Decision Making is a very user-friendly book that can be used in policy
analysis or financial management courses in upper-division or graduate
instruction. Ammons and Roenigk use excellent examples that place tools in
realistic and appropriate context for typical public administration students.”
— Howard Frank, Professor in the Department of Public Policy &
Administration at Florida International University, USA

TOOLS FOR DECISION MAKING
This book guides readers to the mastery of a wide array of practical ana-
lytic techniques useful to local governments. Written in an easy-t o- read
style with an emphasis on providing practical assistance to students, local
government practitioners, and others interested in local government per-
formance, this updated third edition features analytic methods selected
for their relevance to everyday problems encountered in city and county
governments.
The authors outline a variety of practical techniques including the simplest
that the fields of management, public administration, policy analysis, and
industrial engineering have to offer. Each analytic technique is introduced
in the context of a fictitious case presented over a few pages at the begin-
ning of that technique’s chapter. Contents include demand analysis, work
distribution analysis, process flow- charting, inflation adjustments, annual-
izing capital costs, staffing analysis, identifying full costs of a program or
service, present value analysis, life- cycle costing, lease/ buy analysis, cost-
effectiveness analysis, benchmarking analysis, and more.
This updated third edition features a dramatic expansion of Excel- based
applications, plus templates and exercises accompanying many of the
chapters and available online. New chapters prepare readers to:
• use statistical tests to identify significant differences in performance
averages;
• construct Pareto charts;
• develop cause- and- effect diagrams;
• prepare control charts;
• detect possible discrimination in hiring and appointment practices; and
• present analytic evidence more effectively.
This book is an essential resource for students and instructors of public
administration courses on analysis, methods, evaluation, productivity
improvement, and service delivery.
Online resources for this book, including Excel templates, are available at
https:// toolsfordecisionmaking.sog.unc.edu
David N. Ammons is a Professor of Public Administration and Government
at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA. He has written sev-
eral books and his articles have appeared in Public Administration Review, Journal of
Public Administration Research and Theory, Public Performance and Management Review, and
other public affairs journals. He has served on the National Performance
Management Advisory Commission and the North Carolina Governor’s
Advisory Committee on Performance Management. He was elected as a
Fellow of the National Academy of Public Administration in 2006.
Dale J. Roenigk is the Director of the North Carolina Benchmarking Project
and a Faculty Member at the School of Government at the University of North
Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA. He is the author of an annual benchmarking
report on municipal services published by the School of Government. He
also helped develop the County and Municipal Fiscal Analysis tool, a web-
based dashboard designed to help North Carolina local governments ana-
lyze their fiscal condition. His research interests include benchmarking,
performance measurement and management, and evaluation.
TOOLS FOR DECISION MAKING
A Practical Guide for Local
Government
Third Edition
David N. Ammons and Dale J. Roenigk
Third edition published 2022
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2022 David N. Ammons and Dale J. Roenigk
The right of David N. Ammons and Dale J. Roenigk to be identified as authors
of this work has been asserted by them in accordance with sections 77 and 78
of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised
in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or
hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information
storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered
trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent
to infringe.
First edition published by CQ Press 2002
Second edition published by CQ Press 2009
British Library Cataloguing- in- Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data
Names: Ammons, David N., author. | Roenigk, Dale J., author.
Title: Tools for decision making: a practical guide for local government /
David N. Ammons and Dale J. Roenigk.
Description: Third edition. | Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2022. |
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2021005408 (print) | LCCN 2021005409 (ebook) |
ISBN 9780367654399 (hardback) | ISBN 9780367654320 (paperback) |
ISBN 9781003129431 (ebook)
Subjects: LCSH: Local government–Decision making. |
Public administration–Decision making.
Classification: LCC JS78 .A49 2022 (print) |
LCC JS78 (ebook) | DDC 352.3/7214–dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021005408
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2021005409
ISBN: 978- 0- 367- 65439- 9 (hbk)
ISBN: 978- 0- 367- 65432- 0 (pbk)
ISBN: 978- 1- 003- 12943- 1 (ebk)
Typeset in Joanna
by Newgen Publishing UK
CONTENTS
List of boxes xi
List of figures xiv
List of tables xviii
List of worksheets xxii
Preface xxiii
Part I Introduction 1
1 The role of analysis in local government 3
Part II The basics 25
2 Central tendency and dispersion 27
3 Performance measurement and monitoring 38
4 Smoothing data trends by using moving averages 60
5 Sampling for analysis 69
6 Basic statistical testing: Correlation and chi- square 80
7 Sensitivity analysis 99
viii CONTeNTS
8 Break- even analysis 107
9 Detecting meaningful differences in average
performance 112
Part III Analyzing a unit’s capacity to meet the demand
for service 125
10 Demand analysis 127
11 Work distribution analysis 139
12 Using performance standards 149
13 Staffing analysis 163
14 Staffing factor calculation: Projections for uninterruptible
services 180
Part IV What does it cost? 187
15 Adjusting for inflation when comparing revenues or
expenditures 189
16 Basic investment calculations: Figuring interest
rates and yields 201
17 The time value of money: Opportunity costs,
discounting, compounding, future value, and
present value 214
18 Simple options for annualizing costs of capital
items: Usage- rate and straight- line depreciation 224
19 Identifying full costs of a program 236
20 Calculating go- away costs for privatization decisions 257
21 Life- cycle costing 263
CONTeNTS ix
22 Lease or buy? 272
23 Cost- effectiveness analysis: A truncated version of
cost- benefit analysis 283
Part V Process improvement 297
24 Pareto charts 299
25 Cause- and- effect diagrams 308
26 Process flow charts 319
27 Control charts 333
Part VI Other analytic opportunities and techniques 357
28 Citizen surveys and customer surveys 359
29 Analyzing survey data: Revealing graphics and simple
statistics 369
30 Financial condition analysis 384
31 Random chance or bias? A practical use of binomial
probability distribution 400
32 Forecasting 416
33 Analysis of operations via benchmarking 434
Part VII Presenting analytic evidence 453
34 Presenting analytic evidence: Tables or graphs? 455
Part VIII Wrap up 471
35 The place of analysis in a political environment 473