Time Pressure and Stress in Human Judgment and Decision Making PDF
Preview Time Pressure and Stress in Human Judgment and Decision Making
Time Pressure and Stress in Human Judgment and Decision Making Time Pressure and Stress in Human Judgment and Decision Making Edited by Ola Svenson Stockhom University Stockholm, Sweden and A. John Maule University ofL eeds Leeds. England SPRINGER SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, LLC LIbrary of Congress CatalogIng-In-PublIcatIon Data TIle pressure and stress In hUlan Judgment and declson makIng I edIted by Ola Svenson and A. John Maule. p. cm. Includes bIblIographIcal references and Index. ISBN 978-1-4419-3233-4 ISBN 978-1-4757-6846-6 (eBook) DOI 10.10071978-1-4757-6846-6 1. DecIsIon-makIng. 2. Judg.ent. 3. TIme pressure. 4. Stress (Psychology) 5. Job stress. I. Svenson, Ola. II. Maule, A. John. BF44B.T58 1993 153.S·3--dc20 93-11985 CIP ISBN 978-1-4419-3233-4 \0 1993 Springer Science+Business Media New York Originally published by Plenum Press, New York in 1993 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1993 All rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or ttansmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, pbotocopying. microfilming, recording. or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher Contributors Barbara Barnett, McDonnell-Douglas Aircraft Co., P.O. Box 516, St. Louis, Missouri 63166-0516 Lehman Benson, III, Department of Psychology, Lund University, S-22350 Lund, Sweden James R. Bettman, The Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27706 Jerome R. Busemeyer, Department of Psychological Sciences, Purdue Univer- sity, West Lafayette, Indiana 47807 Vlf Bockenhoit, Department of Psychology, University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign, Champaign, Illinois 61820 Peter J. Carnevale, Department of Psychology, University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign, Champaign Illinois 61820 Geri Anne Dino, Department of Psychology, Frostburg State University, Frost- burg, Maryland 21532 Anne Edland, Department of Psychology, Stockholm University, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden Fred Hyman, National Transportation Safety Board, Washington, DC 20008 G. Robert J. Hockey, Department of Psychology, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, England v vi Contributors Eric J. Johnson, Department of Marketing, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104-6371 Martin F. Kaplan, Department of Psychology, Northern lllinois University, De Kalb, lllinois 60115 Keith Kroeger, Department of Psychology, University of lllinois at Urbana- Champaign, Champaign, lllinois 61820 Frank J. Landy, Center for Applied Behavioral Sciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802 Vlf Lundberg, Department of Psychology, Stockholm University, S-I0691 Stockholm, Sweden Cynthia M. Lusk, Center for Research on Judgment and Policy, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309-0344 Donald MacGregor, Decision Research, 1201 Oak Street, Eugene, Oregon 97401 A. John Maule, School of Business and Economic Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, England Christopher McCusker, Department of Psychology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois 61820 Kathleen M. O'Connor, Department of Psychology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, Illinois 61820 John W. Payne, The Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27706 Haleh Rastegary, Center for Applied Behavioral Sciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802 James Shanteau, Department of Psychology, Kansas State University, Manhat- tan, Kansas 66506 Martin Schiirmann, Universitat Bielefeld, Abteilung fOr Psychologie, Postfach D-4800, Bielefeld, Germany Joachim Stiensmeier-Pelster, Universitat Bielefeld, Abteilung ftir Psychologie, Postfach D-4800, Bielefeld, Germany Contributors vii Alan Stokes, Aviation Research Laboratory, Universtiy of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign, Willard Airport, Savoy, Illinois 61874 Ola Svenson, Department of Psychology, Stockholm University, S-10691 Stock- holm, Sweden Thomas S. Wallsten, Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599-3270 L. Tatiana Wanshula, Department of Psychology, Northern Illinois University, De Kalb, Illinois 60115 Christopher D. Wickens, Aviation Research Laboratory, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Willard Airport, Savoy, Illinois 61874 Dan Zakay, Department of Psychology, Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Israel Mark P. Zanna, Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L 3G 1, Canada Preface Some years ago we, the editors of this volume, found out about each other's deeply rooted interest in the concept of time, the usage of time, and the effects of shortage of time on human thought and behavior. Since then we have fostered the idea of bringing together different perspectives in this area. We are now, there- fore, very content that our idea has materialized in the present volume. There is both anecdotal and empirical evidence to suggest that time con- straints may affect behavior. Managers and other professional decision makers frequently identify time pressure as a major constraint on their behavior (Isen- berg, 1984). Chamberlain and Zika (1990) provide empirical support for this view, showing that complaints of insufficient time are the most frequently report- ed everyday minor stressors or hassles for all groups of people except the elderly. Similarly, studies in occupational settings have identified time pressure as one of the central components of workload (Derrich, 1988; O'Donnel & Eggemeier, 1986). Given that many human actions are taken under time limits and deadlines, it is perhaps surprising that there are so few studies investigating the ways in which these constraints change either behavior in general or judgment and decision making in particular. The primary aim of the present volume is to bring together a number of contributions that consider how time constraints, and the time pressure and time stress associated with these constraints, can affect the nature of human judgment and decision making. The contributions focus, almost exclu- sively, on the behavior of individuals. Time constraints are also known to affect the processes underlying decision making in groups (e.g., Janis, 1982, 1989), in organizations (e.g., Bronner, 1972), and in complex political situations (e.g., Holsti & George, 1975). Although these areas have important contributions to make, we believe that there is, at present, an urgent need to bring together studies of individual judgments and decisions. This more focused approach will ix x Preface lay the foundations for further considerations of time pressure in these more complex situations. As indicated above, there have been comparatively few studies in the area of judgment and decision making under time pressure. Those that have been pub- lished often manipulate time as an independent variable to investigate some other aspect of the decision-making process from a specific theoretical standpoint (e.g., its effects on the costbenefit calculations determining decision strategies; see Bettman, Johnson, & Payne, 1990). Also, these studies have been developed from many different standpoints, reflecting the diversity of approaches in the area of decision research as a whole (cf. Maule & Svenson, this volume). Given the way research has developed and the relatively small number of studies in this area, we believe that the field, as yet, is not mature enough for the development of a strong, unifying theory. This belief is reflected in the aims of the present volume that are (1) to review the major approaches developed to consider the effects of time constraints, time pressure, and stress on individual decision mak- ing; (2) to explore the relevance of a number of theoretical issues and approaches drawn from other areas of psychology and not previously considered in the context of time pressure research; (3) to present examples of contemporary empirical research in the area; (4) to look critically at relevant methodological issues and consider their implications for the development of future research; and (5) to provide a volume that summarizes our current state of understanding of the area and one that suggests priorities for future research. To meet these aims the volume is structured in the following way. Part I sets the scene by presenting three review chapters covering issues of general impor- tance. It includes broad reviews of decision research, of the effects of time pressure on decision making, and of the psychobiology of stress and health. This part of the volume provides relevant background material, and a context in which to set the other contributions to this volume. The chapters in Part II take a more detailed look at a number of different perspectives, exploring each in terms of the theoretical and methodological issues it raises for our understanding of time pressure effects. In some instances, the perspective has already been applied to the area, in other instances it has not, and the chapter explores the contribution that the approach can make to our understanding of the area. Taken together, the contributions in this section discuss many important theoretical and methodologi- cal issues and suggest a number of different ways in which we may understand present findings and develop future research. The six empirical studies in Part III investigate how individuals adapt to time pressure in a variety of different judg- ment and decision tasks. Together, the studies provide a sample of contemporary research in the area. The ways in which individuals adapt to time pressure is further developed in Part IV, by considering the importance of individual differ- ences in the ways in which people adapt to time constraints. Finally, in Part V, three studies are presented that consider the effects of time pressure and stress in Preface xi complex and everyday work settings. Not only do they provide a different con- text in which to consider time pressure effects, but they also remind us that these constraints are an important feature of the work environment. Each part of the volume is preceded by a brief introduction that provides both a description of the common themes to emerge from that part of the book and a summary of the contents of individual chapters. We close by presenting some concluding re- marks, which bring together some of the major issues and problems raised by the contributions to this volume. We would like to acknowledge the support and assistance of many col- leagues during all stages of this project. First of all, the authors of the chapters making up this volume are acknowledged for their contributions. Many of the authors and other colleagues reviewed the chapters, and their assistance is also greatly appreciated. The Swedish Council for Research in the Humanities and Social Sciences, the Swedish Work Environment Fund, and the Nuclear Power Inspectorate, in Sweden, and Leeds University, in England, awarded us the necessary research grants and resources for carrying through the project. We would also like to thank Anne Edland, Alison Lynn, and Wivianne Runske for their most valuable support and assistance. Finally, a word of thanks to our families for their persistent support and for their patience with the over- committed editors. Our thanks to Anita, in Sweden, and Beth, Simon, and Martin, in England. References Bettman, J. R., Johnson, E. J., & Payne, J. W. (1990). A componential analysis of cognitive et!ort in choice. Organisational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 45. 111-139. Bronner, R. (1972). Decision making under time pressure. Lexington MA: Lexington Books. Chamberlain, K., & Zika, S. (1990). The minor events approach to stress: Support for the use of daily hassles. British Journal of Psychology. 81. 469-481. Derrick, W. L. (1988). Dimensions of operator workload. Human Factors. 3D, 95-110. Holsti, O. R., & George, A. L. (1975). The et!ects of stress on the performance of foreign policy makers. Political Science Annual, 6, 255-319. Isenberg, D. J. (1984). How senior managers think. Harvard Business Review, November- December, 81-90. Janis, I. L. (1982). Groupthink: Psychological studies of policy decisions and fiascoes. Boston: Houghton MitIlin. Janis, I. L. (1989). Crucial decisions; Leadership in policymaking and crisis management. New York: Free Press. O'Donnel, R., & Eggemeier, F. T. (1986). Workload assessment and methodology. In K. Bot!, L. Kaufman, & 1. Thomas (Eds.), Handbook of perception and human performance (Vol. 2, pp. 673-738). New York: Wiley. Contents PART I. DECISION, TIME PRESSURE, AND STRESS-SETTING THE SCENE 1. Theoretical and Empirical Approaches to Behavioral Decision Making and Their Relation to TIme Constraints •••••.•••.•.• 3 A. John Maule and Ola Svenson Introduction ............................................. 3 On the Psychology of Decision Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Structural Approaches ..................................... 5 Judgments ............................................ 5 Potential of Judgment Research to Capture Time Pressure Effects ............................................. 7 Decision.............................................. 8 Riskless Decision Situations .............................. 8 Potential of Riskless Decision-Making Research to Capture Time Pressure Effects ................................. 9 Risky Decisions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Expectancy/Value Approaches ............................ 10 Potential of Risky Decision-Making Research to Capture Time Pressure Effects ...................................... 13 Process Approaches ....................................... 13 Methodological Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Some Findings from Process-Tracing Studies. ... . . .. . ... . . . . 15 Process Theories ....................................... 16 Potential of Process-Tracing Research to Capture Time Pressure Effects ............................................. 19 Sequential and Dynamic Approaches and Their Potential for Time Pressure Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 xiii
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