Thought and Action in Foreign Policy: Proceedings of the London Conference on Cognitive Process Models of Foreign Policy March 1973

368 Pages·1977·7.75 MB·English

by  G. Matthew Bonham

Editor / Herausgeber:
Prof. Salomon Klaczko-Ryndziun, Frankfurt a. M.
Co-Editors / Mitherausgeber:
Prof. Ranan Banerji, Temple University, Philadelphia
Prof. JeromeA. Feldman, UniversityofRochester, Rochester
Prof. Mohamed Abdelrahman Mansour, ETH, Zürich
Prof. Ernst Billeter, Universität Fribourg. Fribourg
Prof. Christof Burckhardt, EPF, Lausanne
Prof. Ivar Ugi, Technische Universität München
Prof. King-Sun Fu, Purdue University, West Lafayette
Prof. Gerhard Fehl, R. W. TH., Aachen
Dipl.-Ing. Ekkehard Brunn, Universität, Dortmund
Interdisciplinary Systems Research Interdisziplinäre Systemforschung
Analysis - Modeling - Simulation Analyse - Formallsierung - SimulatiOn
The system science has been developed from several Die Systemwissenschah hat sich aus der Verbindung
scientific fields: control and communication theory, mehrerer Wissenschaftszweige entwickelt: der Rege
model theory and computer science. Nowadays it ful lungs-und Steuerungstheorie, der Kommunikationswis
fills the requirements which Norbert Wiener formulated senschah, der Modelltheorie und der Informatik. Sie
originally for cybernetics; and were not feasible at his erfüllt heute das Programm, das Norbert Wiener mit
time, because of insufficient development of computer seiner Definition von Kybernetik ursprünglich vorgelegt
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Research and practical application of system science noch ungenügend entwickelte Computerwissenschaft
involve works of specialists of system science as weil stark eingeschränkt war.
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now, the efficiency of this co-operation has been proved stemwissenschaft bezieht heute sowohl die Fachleute
in many theoretical and practical works. der System wissenschaft als auch die Spezialisten der
The series 'Interdisciplinary Systems Research' is in Anwendungsgebiete ein. In vielen Bereichen hat sich
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students and scientists involved in theoretical and ap Die Reihe «Interdisziplinäre Systemforschung» setzt
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about the most advanced state of the art in research, dem Praktiker über den neuesten Stand aus Lehre und
application, lecturing and metatheoretical criticism in Forschung, aus der Anwendung und der metatheore
this area. It is also intended to enlarge this area by in tischen Kritik dieser Wissenschaft zu berichten.
cluding diverse mathematical modeling procedures Dieser Rahmen soll noch insofern erweitert werden, als
developed in many decades for the description and op die Reihe in ihren Publikationen die mathematischen
timization of systems. Modellierungsverfahren mit einbezieht, die in verschie
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theoretical control and computer science to mathemati Beschreibung und Optimierung von Systemen erarbeitet
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phasizes the interdisciplinarity which system science Entgegen der früheren Tradition, in der die theoretische
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and regional planners, psychologists, physiologists, der Mathematiker, Physiker und Ingenieure beschränkt
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pOlitical scientists, lawyers, pedagogues, philologists, plinarität, die die System wissenschaft mittlerweile er
managers, diplomats, military scientists and other spe reicht hat und weiter anstrebt. Stadt-und Regionalpla
cialists are increasingly confronted or even charged ner, Psychologen, Physiologen, Betriebswirte, Volks
with problems of system science. wirtschaher, Okologen, Ernährungswissenschaher,
The ISR series will contain research reports - including Soziologen, Politologen, Juristen, Pädagogen, Mana
PhD-theses -Iecture notes, readers for lectures and ger, Diplomaten, Militärwissenschafter und andere Fach
proceedings of scientific symposia. The use of less ex leute sehen sich zunehmend mit Aufgaben der System
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authors' results may be offered for discussion in the Die ISR-Reihe wird Forschungsberichte - einschliess
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der to assu re the reproducibility of the published results Vorlesungen und Tagungsberichte enthalten. Die Ver
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Der internationale Charakter der Reihe soll durch die
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sorgen.
ISR33
Interdisciplinary Systems Research
Interdisziplinäre Systemforschung
G. Matthew Bonham, Michael J. Shapiro (Editors)
Thought and Action in Foreign Policy
Proceedings of the London Conference on
Cognitive Process Models of Foreign Policy
March 1973
1977 Springer Basel AG
This book was prepared with the support of the Mathematical Social Sciences
Board and the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings,
conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this book are those of the
authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the MSSB or NSF.
Reproduction, translation, publication, use, and disposal by and for the
United States Government and its officers, agents, and employees acting
within the scope of their official duties, for Government use only, is permitted.
ISBN 978-3-7643-0910-7 ISBN 978-3-0348-5872-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-0348-5872-4
CIP-Kurztitelaufnahme der Deutschen Bibliothek
Thought and action in foreign policy: proceedings of the London Confer
ence on Cognitive Process Models of Foreign Policy, March 1973 /
G. Matthew Bonham; Michael J. Shapiro (ed.). Publ. under the auspices of
the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Stanford,
California, USA.- 1 .Aufl. - Basel, Stuttgart: Birkhäuser, 1977.
(Interdisciplinary systems research; 33)
ISBN 978-3-7643-0910-7
NE: Bonham, G. Matthew [Hrsg.]; Conference on Cognitive Process Models
of Foreign Policy < 1973 London>.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in
a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic,
mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior
permission of the copyright owner.
© Springer Basel AG 1977
Originally published by Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences and
Birkhäuser Verlag Basel in 1977
CONTENTS
PREFACE i
PART I: INTRODUCTION
Chapter 1. Thought and Action in Foreign
Policy
G. Matthew Bonham and Michael J.
Shapiro • • • • • • • • • • • 1
Chapter 2. Foreign Policy Decision-Makers
Viewed Psychologically: "Cognitive
Process" Approaches
OIe R. Holsti • 9
PART II: THE PROCESS OF PERCEPTION
Chapter 3. Finland as a "Friendly Neighbor"
and Finland as an "Independent
Western Democracy": An Illustra
tive Case Study on the Problems
of Image Policy
Harto Hakovirta • • • • • • • • • • 75
Chapter 4. Mapping the Elite's Cognitive
World: Swedish Elites and Security
Elites and Security Policy
Planning
Thomas G. Hart. • • • • • • .120
Chapter 5. Minimizing Misperception
Robert Jervis • • • • • • • .154
PART III: PERCEPTIONAL ORGANIZATION
Chapter 6. Lying and the Stress for Cognitive
Consistency
Deane Neubauer ••••••••••• 190
Chapter 7. How a Schema Is Used to Interpret
Information
Robert Axelrod ••••••••••• 226
PART IV: DECISION MODELS
Chapter 8. Classical Theories of Foreign POlicy
Making as Cognitive Archetypes
Helga Hernes •••••••••••• 242
Chapter 9. On Simu1ating Co11ective Security
Regime Alternatives
Hayward R. Alker, Jr. and
William J. Greenberg • • • • .263
Chapter 10: Foreign Policy Decision-Making in
Finland and Austria: The Applica
tion of a Cognitive Process Model
G. Matthew Bonham and Michael
J. Shapiro •••••••••••• 306
PREFACE
This volume is the product of the Conference on
Cognitive Process Models of Foreign Policy Decision-Making
which was held in London at the Richardson Institute for
Conflict and Peace Research from March 17-24, 1973. We
would like to thank Michael Nicholson, Director of the
Richardson Institute, for acting as the host of the
Conference.
Support for the Conference and the preparation of
the Conference papers for publication was provided by the
Mathematical Social Sciences Board (MSSB). The MSSB is
funded by aNational Science Foundation grant which is
administered by the Center for Advanced Study in the
Behavioral Sciences as the primary grantee. We are grateful
to Hayward Alker, Jr. and William H. Riker of the MSSB for
their help and encouragement.
The graph shown on the cover is a cognitive map
representation of the output from our computer simulation
of foreign pOlicy decision-making. We would like to
thank Robert Axelrod and Gary Raffel of the University of
Michigan for generating the graph.
PART I
INTRODUCTION
1
CHAPTER 1
THOUGHT AND ACTION IN FOREIGN POLICY
G. MATTHEW BONHAM
The American University
MICHAEL J. SHAPIRO
University of Hawaii
Introduction
The papers assembled here constitute, and to some
extent represent, widely disparate views of foreign policy
thinking and decision-making. As is the case with almost
any collective enterprise, it is possible to suggest some
noteworthy resemblances among the contributions to this
volume and to indicate grounds for distinguishing them
from other "approaches." Indeed it was a belief in the
distinctiveness of the work of the contributors, all of
whom were invited to participate in the MSSB Conference on
Cognitive Process Models of Foreign Policy Decision-Making,
that stimulated the papers in the first place. In this
case, what the contributors share exists at a fairly high
level of abstraction. The overlap is worth denoting, but
rather than straining credibility by erecting unimpeachable
boundaries between this set of analysis and those of other
foreign policy analysts, we shall rather suggest a way of
conceptualizing problems in the analysis of foreign policy
decision-making that may help the reader analyze the work
in this volume as well as research that appears elsewhere.