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Preview The transiting dust clumps in the evolved disk of the Sun-like UXor RZ Psc

The transiting dust clumps in the evolved disk of the Sun-like UXor RZ Psc rsos.royalsocietypublishing.org 1 Grant M. Kennedy , Matthew A. 2 3 Kenworthy , Joshua Pepper , Joseph E. Research 4,5 6 Rodriguez , Robert J. Siverd , Keivan G. 5,7 1 7 Stassun , & Mark C. Wyatt 1 Articlesubmittedtojournal 1 0 InstituteofAstronomy,UniversityofCambridge,MadingleyRoad, 2 CambridgeCB30HA,UK n SubjectAreas: 2LeidenObservatory,LeidenUniversity,POBox9513,NL-2300 a astrophysics,extrasolarplanets,stars R3ALeiden,theNetherlands J DepartmentofPhysics,LehighUniversity,16MemorialDrive 3 East,Bethlehem,PA18015,USA 2 Keywords: 4Harvard-SmithsonianCenterforAstrophysics,60GardenStreet, variablestars,protoplanetarydisks, MS-78,Cambridge,MA02138,USA ] 5DepartmentofPhysicsandAstronomy,VanderbiltUniversity, R debrisdisks,circumstellarmatter 6301StevensonCenter,Nashville,TN37235,USA S 6 LasCumbresObservatoryGlobalTelescopeNetwork,6740 . h Authorforcorrespondence: CortonaDr.,Suite102,SantaBarbara,CA93117,USA 7 p GrantM.Kennedy DepartmentofPhysics,FiskUniversity,100017thAvenueNorth, - Nashville,TN37208,USA o e-mail:[email protected] r t s RZPscisayoungSun-likestar,longassociatedwith a the UXorclassofvariable stars,which ispartiallyor [ wholly dimmed by dust clumps several times each 1 year. The system has a bright and variable infrared v excess, which has been interpreted as evidence that 8 the dimming events are the passage of asteroidal 6 5 fragments in front of the host star. Here, we present 6 a decade of optical photometry of RZ Psc and take 0 a critical look at the asteroid belt interpretation. We . 1 show that the distribution of light curve gradients 0 is non-uniform for deep events, which we interpret 7 as possible evidence for an asteroidal fragment- 1 like clump structure. However, the clumps are very : v likely seen above a high optical depth mid-plane, i X so the disk’s bulk clumpiness is not revealed. While circumstantial evidence suggests an asteroid belt is r a more plausible than a gas-rich transition disk, the evolutionary status remains uncertain. We suggest that the rarity of Sun-like stars showing disk-related variabilitymayarisebecausei)anyaccretionstreams aretransparent,and/orii)turbulenceabovetheinner rimisnormallyshadowedbyaflaredouterdisk. (cid:13)c 2014TheAuthors.PublishedbytheRoyalSocietyunderthetermsofthe CreativeCommonsAttributionLicensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided theoriginal author and sourcearecredited. 1. Introduction 2 DisksofgasanddustsurroundessentiallyallyounganaloguesofourSun(e.g.[1]).Thelifetime ofthegasinthesedisksisveryshortcomparedtothestellarlifetime,andwithinafewmillion ...rso byueailrdsihnagspalcacnreettse.dTohneteovtohleutsitoanr,obfetehneldouststtodsupriancgetihnisphpohtaoseeviaspuonrcaetirvtaeinfl,obwust,tahnedexcoisntetrnicbeuotefdgatos .....s.roy .a giantplanetsmakesitclearthatplanetarybuildingblocks,andofcoursesomeplanets,formona ..ls .o similarorshortertimescale. ...cie Beyondthefirstfewmillionyearsatypicalstarhostsaplanetarysystem,thecomponentsbeing ..ty .p theplanetsthemselvesandaresidualdiskofsmallbodies.These“planetesimals”–theasteroids ...ub andcomets–makeupthe“debrisdisk”,wherethestandardpictureisthatdestructivecollisions ..lis .h betweenthemgenerateasizedistributionoffragmentsthatextendsdowntomicron-sizeddust ..in .g (e.g.[2–4]). ...o The state ofplanetary systemsasthey emergefromthe gas-richphaseisuncertain. Planets’ ...rg . .R locationsarenotfinalisedatthisepoch,but maymovebyinteracting withotherstars,planets, ... .S and/orplanetesimalsinthesystem(e.g.[5–7]).Similarly,thestateandoriginofthedebrisdiskis ...oc uncertain.Atstellocentricdistancesnear1au,theregionofinterestinthisarticle,itcouldbethat .. dustobservedatthistimeisrelatedtothefinalstagesofplanetformation(e.g.[8,9]),originates ...op .e in young analogues of our Asteroid belt [10], is a signature of comets scattered inwards from ..n more distant regions (e.g. [11]), or is simply a remnant of the gas-rich disk that has yet to be ....sci. dispersed[12].Intheabsenceofgasdetectionsthatargueforthelatterscenario,discerningamong ..0 .0 .0 thesevariousscenarios,whicharenotmutuallyexclusive,isdifficult. ..0 .0 Apromisingwaytoprobetheseinnerregionsisbyobservingtemporalvariability(e.g.[13]). .0 ..0 OpticalandIRstellarvariationhasbeenstudiedfordecades(e.g.[14,15]),andhasrecentlybeen . reinvigorated by large scale efforts (e.g. [16,17]) and as a side-effect of large-scale surveys for transiting planets [18,19]. Of many different classes of variables, the ones of most interest and relevance here are the “UXors”, named for the prototypical system UX Orionis [15]. These are usuallyHerbigAeandlate-typeHerbigBestars[20],andtypicallyshowseveralmagnitudesof extinction that is generally attributed to variable obscuration by circumstellar dust [15,21,22].1 Threerelatedargumentsthatfavourcircumstellardustasthecausearei)amaximumdepthof dimmingeventsofroughly3magnitudes,suggestingthatafewpercentofthevisiblefluxisnot directlyfromthe star, but scatteredoff adiskthat surroundsthe star and remainsvisible even when the star itself is completely occulted, ii) “blueing”, where the star is reddened for small (.1mag) levelsof dimmingbut returnsto the stellarcolour (i.e.becomes “bluer”) forthe very deep (&1mag) events where the star is mostly occulted – the reddening indicates dimming by circumstellardust,andastellarcolouristypicaloflightscatteredoffcircumstellardust[28],and iii)increasedpolarisationfractionduringdimmingevents,causedbyagreaterfractionoftheflux beingcontributedbydust-scatteredlight(e.g.[29],whichalsoshowsthatthesurroundingdust does not residein a spherical shell). UXors thereforereveal information on the degreeof non- axisymmetry,the“clumpiness”,ofdustorbitingastaronspatialscalessimilartothestaritself. Theobservationscanspanmultipleorbitstotestforrepeateddimmingevents(e.g.[30]),andby usingdifferentbandpassesandpolarisationcanestimatedustgrainsizes(e.g.[28,31]). Inthe majorityofUXor-likecases(i.e.those relatedtoobscurationbydust),includingother classessuchas“dippers”(e.g.[17,32]),theprocessescausingyoungstarstovaryareattributed togas-richprotoplanetarydisks.ForHerbigAe/Bestarstheobscurationisthoughttobecaused by hydrodynamic turbulence that lifts dust above the puffed up inner rim of a self-shadowed disk[33].Forthedippers,whichareobservedaroundlow-massstars,theobscurationisattributed todustinaccretionstreamsthatlinktheinnerdiskandthestellarsurface,and/ortovariations intheheightoftheinnerdiskedge[30,32,34].Thecommonthemeisthereforethatthelocationof 1NotallstarsoccultedbydustareUXors.Twootherclassesare:thoseoccultedbycircumstellarmaterialbeyond&10au,such asAATauandV409Tauwhichshow&year-longdimmingevents[23,24],andsystemssuchasǫAur,J1407,EECep,and OGLE-LMC-ECL-11893wheretheoccultationsareattributedtocircumsecondarydisks(e.g.[18,25–27]). theoccultingdustisasclosetothestarasphysicallypossible,beingsetbysublimation(e.g.[35]). 3 Thesesystemstellusaboutthenatureofturbulenceandaccretioningas-dominateddisks,butso farreveallittleabouthowthesediskstransitiontothedebrisphaseandthesubsequentevolution. HerewefocusonRZPsc,astarthatshowsUXor-likevariability(e.g.[36–38]).AsayoungK0V ...rso .s tuynpiqeustearamwiotnhgnoUeXvoirdsenacnedfomragyasparcocvriedtieonneawndinafsotrrmonagtiionnfraornedth(eIRs)teruxccteussre,thoifsisnynsetermplaapnpeetaarrys ......roya systemsduringorfollowingdispersalof the gasdisk[39,40]. However,the IR excessindicates ...lso .c the over 5% of the starlight is intercepted by the disk, which is a level more akin to gas-rich ..ie protoplanetaryand transition disksthan debrisdisks.Specifically,we use a decadeof ground- ...typ basedopticalphotometryofRZPsc(section3)todrawconclusionsondustlocation(section4), ...ub ..lis anddiscussthepossiblediskstructureandevolutionarystateinsection5.Weconcludeinsection .h ..in 6. .g ...o ...rg 2. A clumpy dust ring near 0.5 au? ..R ... .S There is significant evidence that the optical variations seen towards RZ Psc are caused by ...oc .. circumstellar dust: i) during dimming events the colour becomes redder [36,41] in a way ...op consistentwiththatexpectedfordust[42,43],ii)themaximumdepthisabout2.5magandduring .e ..n tfhroemseleivgehnttsscathtteerceodlooufrfrtehteurcnirscutomnsetealrlasrtedlluasrtv(ai.leu.etsh,esustgagreisstifnuglltyhaotccthuelterdem[2a8in,4i2n]g, aenmdisisiiio)nthies ....sci. ..0 polarisationfractionincreasesduringthetransits,asexpectedifanincreasingfractionofthelight .0 .0 isscatteredoffadiskofcircumstellardust[28,38,44]. ..0 .0 .0 WhatseparatesRZPscfromotherUXors(anddippers)isi)thespectraltypeisK0Vratherthan ..0 . HerbigAe/BeforUXorsandlateKtoM-typefordippers,ii)theoccultingdustlieswellbeyond thesublimationradius,andiii)thestarisnotassociatedwithastar-formingregionsoisinferred tobeafewtensofmillionsofyearsold.Thedustdistancehasbeeninferredfromthespeedof ingress of dimming events, which was previouslyestimated as about 0.6au (for circular orbits [40]).Corroboratingevidencecomesfromthe 500Ktemperatureofthedustseeninthemid-IR, ∼ whichplacesitnear0.4-0.7au(dependingonopticaldepth)andthereforeatalocationconsistent withtheoccultingdust[40].ThedistancetoRZPscisunknown,butasanapparentlyisolatedstar thatshowsLiabsorptiontheagehasbeenestimatedasafewtensofMyr,andthereforebeyond theageatwhichagas-richdiskwouldnormallyexist[39,45].Furtherdistinguishingfeaturesare thatthedurationofthedimmingeventsisconsistentlyshortcomparedtootherUXors,afewdays ratherthandaystoafewweeks,andthatnonear-IR(i.e.K-band)excessoraccretionsignatures areseen[45],sointerpretationsrelatedtoaccretionofdiskmaterialontothestar(e.g.[21,30,34]) areunlikely. Thus, the potentially compelling and unique aspect for RZ Psc is that we are observing dimmingeventsfromdustinamain-sequenceplanetarysystemthatresidesatabout0.5au.This dust is also seen in thermal emission, so deriving joint constraints on the dust properties and structuremaybepossible.AsarguedbydeWitetal.[40]apictureisemerginginwhichRZPsc is surrounded by a massive young version of our own asteroid belt, in which planetesimals are continually being destroyed. These collisions generate the large collective surface area of smalldustthatemitsstronglyinthemid-IR,andthesystemgeometrymeansthatthisdustalso sometimespassesinfrontofthestar. Whilethisasteroidbeltpictureisintriguing,andmakesRZPscasystemthatcouldbeofgreat interestandworthyofdetailedstudy,itisnottheonlypossibility.Wellover1%ofthestarlightis reprocessedbythecircumstellardisk,whichismoretypicaloftheprimordialgas-richdisksseen aroundnearlyallyoungstars.ThediscoveryofsystemslikeHD21997, thatappeartobeafew tens ofMyroldand hostgas-richdisks[46], showsthat stellarageisnotaperfectindicatorof diskstatus.Thus,aconsiderablepartofouranalysisfocusesonthequestionofthestatusofthe diskaroundRZPsc. Giventheproposedinterpretationrelatedtoindividualplanetesimaldisruptions,ratherthan hydrodynamics, it is perhaps surprising that to date the dimming events are not seen to be periodic[40,47].TheonlycyclicalvariationseeninlightcurvesforRZPscisa12.4yearvariation 4 withanamplitudeof0.5mag,whichisattributedtoeitheramagneticcycle,orprecessionofan otherwiseunseenouterdiskduetoperturbationsfromanunseencompanion[40]. ...rso .s 3. Time series photometry .....roy .a ..ls .o (a) Optical .c ..ie ..ty TWoidset-uAdnyglteheSetaermchpoforarlPvlaanrieatbsil(iWtyAoSfPR[4Z8,4P9s]c),wanedunseinetwsoeasseoanssoonfsdoaftapufrbolmic tdhaetaKiflroodmegtrheee ......publis ExtremelyLittleTelescopeNorth(KELT-North[50]).Wealsocollected,butultimatelydidnotuse, ...hin photometricobservationsofRZPscfromawidevarietyofothersources([15,36,41,44,51–53],the ...g.o CatalinaSkySurvey,theAmericanAssociationofVariableStarObservers,theAll-SkyAutomated ...rg Survey).AsidefromtheHarvardplatephotometrypublishedbyGürtleretal.[37]wehavenot ..R soughtunpublishedphotometrysothelightcurveremainsincomplete.2 ....S HerewefocusontheWASPandKELT-Northdata,asithasnotbeenpreviouslyanalysedand ...oc .. hasconsiderablyhighercadence(manymeasurementspernight)andtemporalcoverage(nightly, ...op weatherpermitting)thanotherdatasets.TheWASPdatafrom2004and2006arepublicandwere ...en obybt[a5in4]e,dwfrhoemreacnomonmlinoen-amrcohdiveev3a.rTihateisoendsawtaewreerreemproovceedssuesdininga50mqanunieetrnseimariblayrsttoatrhs.atTdheesWcriAbSePd ......sci.0 bandpass is broad, with roughly uniform transmission from 400-700nm [48]. The KELT-North ..00 ..0 data,2006-2014,wereusedinrawform,theonlyspecifictreatmentbeinga4%relativecorrection .0 .0 beingmadetoensureobservationstakeninthe“east”and“west”telescopeorientationshavethe ..0 . samecalibration.ThebandpassisredderthanforWASP,withmosttransmissionbetween500nm and800nm[50].ForafulldescriptionoftheKELT-Northdatareduction,see[55]. We normalisedeachyear’sdatafromeachinstrument separatelyby convertingmagnitudes to flux density and dividing out the sigma-clipped median so the light curve has an out-of- occultationbaselineof1.Indoingsoweareassumingthatvariationsduetotheslightlydifferent filterbandpassesareunimportant.EachrowinFigure1showsaseason’sdata,startingonMay 1eachyear(JDalsoindicated).Mostyear’sdatathereforeextendintothenextyear,sothe“2006 data”referstodatafromthe2006/2007observingseason. (i)Qualitativelightcurveoverview It is clear from Figure1 that RZ Psc undergoesthe very deep dimming events that are typical ofUXors.Theseareseenafewtimeseachobservingseasonandvaryincomplexity,withafew extendedevents(e.g.2006) andagreaternumber of“neater”singleevents (e.g.2010). Insome yearsthereisalsosignificantvariabilityatshallowerdepths.Ofparticularnoteisthepairofdeep eventsin2006;theseappeartobeabout70daysapart,andgiventhesuggestionthattheputative asteroidbeltanalogueresidesnear0.5auanaturalinferenceisthatthesetwoeventsarerelated.If true,thisrepetitioncorrespondstoasemi-majoraxisofabout0.3au,whichgivenuncertaintiesin thetruediskspectrumcouldbeconsistentwiththelocationoftheasteroidbelt.In2004thereare about100daysofnear-consecutivenightsofdataandnodeepevents,soeitherthetrueperiodis longerthan100days,ordustclumpscanbecreated(andperhapsdestroyed)ontimescalesofa yearorso. InFigure2wehaveselectedmostoftheeventsfromeachyearandshownthematagreater temporal resolution. The scale in each panel is the same, so wider boxes simply cover longer events. Most events appear to last at least a few days, suggesting that only having nightly coverage does not seriously hinder our ability to detect most events. However, the events are sufficientlyshortandirregularthatthetrueshapeofeventsremainsuncertain.Whileitislikely that interpolation of the photometry for the fourth event in 2011 (that is, the fourth box from 2Allnormalisedphotometryisavailableathttps://github.com/drgmk/rzpsc 3http://wasp.cerit-sc.cz 5 22450310264.5 ....rsos ......roya ..ls .o 2006 ...cie 2453856.5 ...typ ...ub ..lis 2007 ....hing 2454221.5 ......org ..R ... .S 22450450878.5 ....oc. ...op 2009 .......ensci. 2454952.5 ..0 ....000 .0 ....00 2010 2455317.5 2011 2455682.5 2012 2456048.5 2013 2456413.5 x 1.2 e Flu 01..80 v 0.6 Relati 000...024 22450671784.5 WKAELSTP 5 0 10 0 15 0 20 0 25 0 30 0 Days since 1 May each year Figure1.WASPandKELT-Northdata.Photometryisshownindimensionlessform,relativetoaquiescentlevelof1,and wasconvertedfromobservedmagnitudesasdescribedinthetext. 6 2004 ...rso .....s.roy .a ..ls ..oc 2006 ....iety ....pub ..lis ...hin 2007 ...g.o ...rg . ...R. .S 2008 ...oc ......ope ..n 2009 ......sci.0 .0 ...00 .0 ....00 2010 1.00ux 0.75e Fl 0.50ativ 2011 00..0205Rel 2012 2013 2014 0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 Days + offset Figure2.WASPandKELT-Northdata,focussingondimmingevents.Theverticalandhorizontalscalesineachsub-panel arethesame. the leftinthe rowcorrespondingto 2011inFigure2) wouldresemblethe true lightcurve,this 7 assumptionseemsveryunlikelytoyieldthetrueevolutionofmorecomplexeventslikethosein 2006. Nevertheless,Figure2showsanunprecedentedviewofdimmingeventsseentowardsRZPsc, ...rso .s arantdetishastukcheythinaftoirtmcaantiobneorensothlveeidngteremsspoarnadllye,garensdshoefndciemtmheinvgeleovceintytsainsdprraedseianlt.loTchaetidonimomfitnhge ......roya dustclumps estimated.Whilesuch estimateshave beenmade inthe pastbased onone ortwo ...lso .c individualevents[36],thesedatamakethempossibleforanensembleoftensofevents. ..ie ..ty A fairlybasicquestionis whether the lightcurve couldresultfromobjects that all have the .p sameproperties,orwhetherarangeisrequired.Giventheexistenceofbothlongshallowevents ...ub ..lis andshortdeepevents,ataminimumtheclumpsmustvaryinsizeand/orvelocityacrosstheface .h ..in ofthestar,butprobablyalsohavedifferentopticaldepths.Thestarcanbecompletelyocculted, .g sotheclumpscanbeopticallythickandstar-sized,butithasalreadybeenshownthattheevents ......org arenotgreyincolour,sotheclumpsmusthaveadensitygradientratherthansharpedges.Where . .R sufficientdataexist,itisclearthatnotalleventshavethesamerelativeshape,sotheshapeofthe ... .S clumpsvaries.Thus,thebroadpictureisofroughlystar-sizedclumps,whoseshapeandorbital ...oc .. elementsvary.Thefactthatthedimmingeventscanbeshowninaseriesofpanelswiththesame ...op scaleinFigure2suggeststhattherangeoverwhichthesepropertiesvaryisoforderfactorsofa .e ..n few,notmanyordersofmagnitude. ....sci. ..0 .0 (b) Infrared .0 ..0 .0 .0 While the optical photometry reveals information about how RZ Psc is itself dimmed, IR ..0 . photometry beyond a few microns is dominated by emission from the circumstellar disk. Thus, IR variation reveals information about how the emitting surface area, temperature, and perhapscomposition,ofthedustchangewithtime.Suchvariationisindeedapparent,bothfrom comparisonofanAKARI18µmnon-detectionatalowerlevelthantheWISE22µmdetection,and fromseveralindividualWISEmeasurementstakenat6-monthintervals. Motivated by this variation, we obtained VLT/VISIR observations of RZ Psc; an N-band (10µm)spectrumon2016August16andQ-band(18µm)photometryon2016July27(programme 097.C-0217). These data, and the related calibration observations, were reduced using the standardESOesorexpipeline.Thewall-clockintegrationtimeforthespectrumwas50minutes atanairmassof1.66,andwascalibratedusinganobservationofHD189831takenimmediately afterwardsatanairmassof1.63.Thespectrainindividualchop/nodcyclesareconsistentsothe shapeofthespectrumisreliable.Theabsolutecalibrationisuncertainat 10%levels[56],which ∼ issufficientlypreciseforourpurposeshere.Thespectrumwastrimmedtomaskhighlyuncertain regions shortward of 8µm, and longward of 13 µm, and near the telluric absorption at 9.5µm. TheQ-bandphotometrytook45minutesatanairmassof1.65-1.7,andwascalibratedagainstan observationofHD2436takenimmediatelyafterwardsatanairmassof1.5.PhotometryofRZPsc andHD2436wasdoneusinga0.9”radiusapertureandaskyannulusfrom1-2”.Inadditionto theconversionfromadu/stoJanskyusingHD2436,weappliedanadditionalupwardcorrection toaccountfortheslightlylowerairmassforthecalibrator(exp(0.3[1.675 1.5] 1.05,wherean − ≈ extinctionof0.3perunitairmasswasused,derivedfromarchivalcalibrationdatausingamethod similartothatofVerhoeffetal.[57]).Uncertaintieswereestimatedasthestandarddeviationof thefluxdensityin50aperturesaroundRZPsc.Thefinalcalibratedfluxis86 10mJy. ± The VISIR spectrum and photometry are shown in Figure 3, which also shows the other availablenear-tofar-IRphotometry.TheabsolutelevelofthespectrumagreeswellwiththeIRAS, WISE(fromtheALLWISEcatalogue),andAKARIobservations;thatfourobservationsspanning over30yearsareconsistentsuggeststhatwhilethispartofthespectrummayvary,theshapeand levelshown is typical. The same cannot be said near 18µm, where the AKARI and VISIR (and perhaps WISE depending on the disk spectrum) flux densities are inconsistent. The flux near 10µm being relativelyconstant, and the 18µm flux changing could be indicative of shadowing of an outerdiskby an inner disk;that is,evidence that the diskaround RZ Pschas significant 8 ...rso .s .....roy .a ..ls .o .c ..ie ..ty .p ...ub ..lis .h ..in .g ...o ...rg . .R ... .S ...oc .. ...op .e F(aipgpurroexim3.aFtelu)xyedaernsoiftyobdsisetrrvibautitoionn. TohfeRdZarPksbcl,ueinclilnuedinsghow2MsAaSsSt,elWlarISpEh,otAosKpAhReIr,eVmISoIdRe,laantdtheIRaApSprdoaxitmaaatendsttehlleairr ......nsci. temperatureof5350K,andthelightbluelinea500Kblackbody. Thelatterisnotafit,butanapproximate continuum ...00 .0 levelthatillustratesthattheWISE3.4and22µmphotometrycannotbothbeaccountedforwithasingleblackbody,ifthe ..0 .0 silicatefeatureseenwithVISIRwaspresentin2010. ...00 . 9.5 9.4 W1 9.3 9.2 9.1 20102011201220132014201520168.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 4.854.904.955.005.055.105.15 year W2 W3 W4 Figure4.WISEepochphotometryat3.4,4.6,12,and22µm(W1,W2,W3,andW4,inmagnitudes).Theleftpanelshows thetimevariationinW1over5.5years.SubsequentpanelsshowhowW1correlateswithW2,W3,andW4,whichdo nothaveobservationsatallW1epochs.Thedashedlinesshowtheslopeexpectedforconstantdiskfluxvariationwith wavelength(thevariationissmallerinW1/2becausethetotalfluxisnotdominatedbythedisk). radialextent.Thistypeofbehaviourisseenas“seesaw”variabilityinIRspectratowardssome transitiondisks(e.g.[58,59]). Thespectrumclearlyshowssolid-stateemission(andthecontinuumlevelisnotactuallyclear), whichindicatesi)thatthedustisofordermicronsinsize,andii)thatthedustincludessilicates. The smooth rise and fall suggests that the silicates are largely amorphous; crystalline silicates havesharperfeatures,notablyadepressionbetweentwopeaksat10and11µm,ratherthanthe flattopseenhere.Othersystemsthoughttohostbrightasteroidbeltanalogues(ratherthangas- rich disks), such as HD 69830, BD+20 307, and HD 113766A, tend to show crystalline features (e.g.[60–62]),whichmayargueagainstsuchascenarioforRZPsc.However,suchcomparisons arelargelyspeculativeasthereisalsoahighdegreeofvariationamongsilicatefeatures,forboth gas-richandgas-poordisks. To further explore this variability, we use the WISE “epoch” photometry, for which the 9 telescopescanningstrategyresultsinclustersofmeasurementsthatarespaced6monthsapart. These data appear at approximately days 70 and 250 in the relevant years in Figure 1, but do notcoincidewithany opticaldimmingevents.Photometryisnotavailable inallfourchannels ...rso .s sfrinomcemlauidnc2h01in1-e2a0r1l4y(2s0e1e0[,6d3u,6e4t]o).eTxhheasuestdioatnaoafrtehsehcoowolnanintaFfitgeurr7e.74m,wonhtehrseathnedlaef2t.5p-ayneealrshhiaotwuss ......roya the 3.4µm magnitude as a function of time, and that there is significant variation on 6-month ...lso .c timescales,andanevengreatervariationoverall.Inspectionoftheindividualclusters,whichare ..ie onhourtodaytimescales,showsno significantvariationwithtime.Thedashedlineshave the ...typ slopeexpectedfordiskbrightnessvariationthatisindependentofwavelength;theslopesarenot ...ub exactly1because the total flux is notdominated bythe disknear 3-5µm, and hence the slopes ...lish ..in areslightlyflatter.Comparingtheobservedandexpectedcorrelations,weconcludethatthedata .g do not show significant evidence for changes in the spectral shape (i.e. changing temperature ......org orcomposition).However,theratiosincluding12and22µm observationsaremostsensitiveto . .R thesechanges,butonlyincludethe firsttwo setsofobservationswherethe brightnesschanges ... .S wererelativelysmall. ...oc .. Nevertheless, the amplitude of the change in 3.4µm brightness over 5 years is about 30%. ...op Consideringthat thediskflux densityisonly45% ofthe total fluxatthis wavelength, the disk .e ..n bbryigchotmnepsasriinngcrethaese1d8fµrmomu2p0p1e0rtolim20i1t5frboymabAoKuAtaRfIaicnto2r0o0f7twanod.AousirmVilIaSrIRvamriaetaisounrecamnebnetiinnfe2r0r1e6d. ....sci. ..0 GiventheseincreasesisitsurprisingthattheN-bandspectrumdoesnotappearmuchhigherthan .0 .0 the IRAS, AKARI, and WISE photometry. A possible explanation would be that the increased ...00 .0 emissionoriginates in larger grains, which would result in greater continuum flux but similar ..0 . levelsinspectralfeatures.However,withoutwiderspectralandmorefrequenttemporalcoverage quantifyingsucheffectsisdifficult.ThislevelofIRvariationisseentowardsbothprotoplanetary (e.g.[58,65]) and debrisdisks(e.g.[13,66,67]), so these data providelittle means to distinguish betweenscenarios. 4. Where are the occulting bodies? The main part of our analysis concerns attempts to extract information from the optical light curve, taking advantage of the greatnumber of dimming events seen over ten seasons. In this sectionwefocusontheradiallocationofthebodies(“clumps”)thatpassinfrontofRZPsc,first searchingforperiodicityassociatedwithrepeatevents,andthenusingthelightcurvegradients toconstraintheprojectedvelocities.Thisanalysisprimarilyfocussesonwhatcanbegleanedfrom thelightcurves,andtheimplicationsoftheseresultsfordifferentclumporiginsarethenexplored insection5. (a) Search for periodic dimming events We begin by estimating the lifetime of an occulting clump as a check on the plausibility that dimmingeventsshouldrepeat.TheangularrateatwhichclumpsareshearedoutisRdΩ/dR= 3Ω/2. Accounting for shear inboth forward(interior)and backward (exterior)directionsthe − shearvelocityacrossaclumpofradiusRclisthen vsh=3RclΩ, (4.1) sothe clumpexpansionrateduetoshearinunitsofclumpradiiisonlythreetimesthe orbital frequency.Thatis,afteroneorbitaclumpwillbestretchedbyafactorof6π,andtheradialand vertical optical depth will be roughly 6π lower (though it might still be optically thick). Thus, clumps that are not bound by their own self-gravity are expected to have a short lifetime at opticaldepthsthatarelargeenoughtocausedetectabledimmingevents,butcouldcauserepeated dimmingeventsiftheyareinitiallyopticallythick. Thetemporalcoverageoftheobservationsinanindividualseasonis100-150days.Thus,ifthe 10 occultingmaterialresidesinanasteroidbeltcloserthan 0.5au,periodicityinthedimmingevents ∼ may be visible in a single season’s data. Longer orbital periods may be visible across seasons, thoughthe six-monthgap betweenseasonsmakesunambiguouslylinkingevents harder.Non- ...rso .s dnoetteecxtiiosnt.oAfnpeinritoedrmicietdyiwatoeupldosismibpilliytythiasttthhaetdoactcaualtraetinoontssuhfafipcpieennt,woirththaatrsatnrigcetpoefrpioedriiocidtyicditoieess, ......roya perhapsreflectingtheirorigininaradiallybroadregion,andthatdiscerningthisscenariofrom ...lso .c randomlyoccurringoccultationsisnotpossiblegiventhedata. ..ie Inanattempttofindtheexpectedperiodicitywetriedseveralapproaches.Thesearesimilarin ...typ thattheyaimtoquantifywhethersomefeatureinthelightcurveisrepeatedagainatalatertime, ...ub ..lis butdifferinhowwelltheyrevealevidenceforaperiodicsignal.Wefoundnoevidenceforevents .h ..in thatarerelatedfromoneyeartoanother,sofocusonstatisticsderivedfromindividualseasons’ .g data(thoughthesearesometimescombined). ......org . .R (i)Autocorrelation ... .S We first used autocorrelation to search for periodicity, rather than methods related to Fourier ....oc. transforms (e.g. periodograms). The motivation being that an individual transit event may be ...op .e followed by another some number of days later, and perhaps repeat a few times, but other ..n similarly(butnotexactly)separatedeventsmayhappenyearslaterorearlierwithaphasethat ....sci. istotallydifferent.Wethereforeusedthediscreteautocorrelationfunction(DACF)proposedby ..0 .0 Edelson&Krolik[68], though donot include uncertainties on individualmeasurements.Fora ...00 tciumrvees,ehrieersewwiethumseedasthueresmigemntas-caliipaptetdimmeseatnitthoerDemAoCvFefithrsetdcoimmmpuintegsetvheenmtse.aTnhea¯nfrfoomretahcehlpigahirt .....000 ofpointsai,aj (withi=j)computesUij=((ai a¯)(aj a¯)/σa,witheachUij associatedwitha 6 − − timelag∆tij=tj ti.Aseriesoftimelagscenteredattimestlagwithwidth∆tlagarethenused − asbins,andtheaverageineachbinistheDACF.TheDACFisnotcomputedforlagbinswithno data.TheunitsoftheDACFarestandarddeviationsofthelightcurveσa(againcalculatedusing sigmaclipping). The results are shown in Figure5 for time lags (i.e. trial periods)of 10 to 155 days in half- daybins.ComparisonofthesewiththelightcurvesshowsthattheDACFrecoversmost,butnot all,events.Conversely,notallDACFpeaksarenecessarilyassociatedwithrealrepeatevents,as theremayofcoursebemultipledistinctclumpsorbitingthestaratanygiventime.Notallpairs of events showa strong DACFsignal, as they can compriseonly afew measurementsand the mean for that tlag dominated instead by a much largernumber of measurements elsewherein thelightcurveclosertothequiescentlevel(i.e.neara¯).Ourattemptstoavoidthisissuebyusing autocorrelationoninterpolateddatayieldedmixedresults;heavyfiltering,suchassettingalldata aboveagivenlevelto1,wasneededforresultssimilartotheDACFshowninFigure5. WhileseveralstrongpeaksappearintheDACFofalldata,mostofthesearisefrom2006,ascan beseenintheDACFwhenthesedataareexcluded.Somepeaksremainnear70days,aswellas at120and145days,andthelattertwocouldbealiasesofperiodsnear60-70days,arisingsimply becauseaneventwasmissed.Thatis,theirregularsamplingmeansthatabsenceofevidenceof poweratsomeperiodintheDACFisnotevidenceofabsence. Thepairofeventsseparatedby70daysin2006providesthestrongestsignal,andmostother years also show events near this period (2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014). To illustrate these numbersthetopmostlineinFigure5quantifiesthenumberofyearsthatshowapeak,in10day bins.Thepeakof7yearsisat65-75days,whichissuggestivebutnotconclusivebecauseaK-S testshowsthatthisdistributionisconsistentwithbeinguniforminperiod. (ii)Iterativeeventfinding InanattempttoavoidsomeofthedifficultiesarisingfromtheDACF,wetriedasimilarapproach that first identifies individual occultation events and then computes the time delays between them.Themainaimwastoidentifyandusealleventsinawaythatavoidsbiasesrelatedtothe

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