The Third Revolution: XI Jinping and the New Chinese State PDF
Preview The Third Revolution: XI Jinping and the New Chinese State
THE THIRD REVOLUTION • THE THIRD REVOLUTION • XI JINPING AND THE NEW CHINESE STATE Elizabeth Economy A Council on Foreign Relations Book 1 1 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America. © Elizabeth Economy 2018 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. CIP data is on file at the Library of Congress ISBN 978– 0– 19– 086607– 5 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Printed by Edwards Brothers Malloy, United States of America The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpar- tisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government officials, business ex- ecutives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, CFR carries out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders; convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, DC, and other cities where senior government officials, members of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with CFR members to discuss and debate major international issues; supporting a Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to produce articles, reports, and books, and hold roundtables that analyze foreign policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign Affairs, the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both findings and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and providing up-to-date information and analysis about world events and American foreign policy on its website, www.cfr.org. The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government. All views expressed in its publications and on its website are the sole responsi- bility of the author or authors. For David, Alexander, Nicholas, and Eleni CONTENTS • Map of China and its Provinces viii Preface ix Acknowledgments xiii 1. Introduction 1 2. Heart of Darkness 20 3. Chinanet 55 4. The Not- So- New Normal 91 5. Innovation Nation 121 6. War on Pollution 152 7. The Lion Awakens 186 8. The Road Forward 231 Notes 251 Index 327 vii RUSSIA Lake Baikal KAZAKHSTAN Heilongjiang MONGOLIA Lake Harbin Balkhash Ürümqi Changchun Inner Mongolia Jilin Shenyang KYRGYZSTAN Xinjiang Huhhot Beijing Liaoning Gansu BTeiijainngjin NORTH TaiyuanHebei Tianjin KOREA NYiinncghxuaian ShanxiShijiazhuJainnagn SOUTH QinghaCi HXininIgLNanzhoAuShXaia'annxiZHheenngzahnouShanJdiaonnggsu YeSleloaw KOREJAAPAN Xizang Hefei Nanjing NEPAL(Tibet)Lhasa SCihcehnugdaunCChohnognqignqgingCHhaunbWgeshuiahanNanAchnahnugiHZahnegzjiShaohSnuhaganngghhaaCiiEhainsta BHUTAN Guiyang HunanJiangxi Sea Guizhou FujianFuzhou PACIFIC INDIA BANGLADESH KunYmuinnngan GNuaannnignxgi GuaGnugadngoznhgou TAIWAN OCEAN Hong Kong S.A.R. 0 km 300 Bay of MYATNHMAAIRLALNAVDOISETNAHMainManacaHu aSi.kAo.uR.CSohuintha 0 miles 300 Bengal Sea PHILIPPINES Map of China and Its Provinces Credit: mapsopensource.com PREFACE • China’s rise on the global stage has been accompanied by an explosion of facts and information about the country. We can read about China’s aging population, its stock market gyrations, and its investments in Africa. We can use websites to track the air quality in Chinese cities, to monitor China’s actions in the South China Sea, or to check on the number of Chinese officials arrested on a particular day. In many respects, this information does what it is supposed to do: keep us informed about one of the world’s most important powers. From the boom and bust in global commodities to the warming of the earth’s atmosphere, Chinese leaders’ political and economic choices matter not only for China but also for the rest of the world; and we can access all of this information with a few strokes on our keyboards. Yet all these data also have the potential to overload our circuits. The information we receive is often contradictory. We read one day that the Chinese government is advancing the rule of law and hear the next that it has arrested over two hundred lawyers and activists without due process. Information is often incomplete or inaccurate. In the fall of 2015, Chinese officials acknowledged that during 2000– 2013, they had underestimated the country’s consumption of coal by as much as 17 percent; as a result, more than a decade of reported improvements in ix
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