The Solar Engine and Its Influence on Terrestrial Atmosphere and Climate PDF
Preview The Solar Engine and Its Influence on Terrestrial Atmosphere and Climate
The Solar Engine and Its Influence on Terrestrial Atmosphere and Climate NATO ASI Series Advanced Science Institutes Series A series presenting the results of activities sponsored by the NA TO Science Committee, which aims at the dissemination of advanced scientific and technological knowledge, with a view to strengthening links between scientific communities. The Series is published by an international board of publishers in conjunction with the NATO Scientific Affairs Division A Life Sciences Plenum Publishing Corporation B Physics London and New York C Mathematical and Kluwer Academic Publishers Physical Sciences Dordrecht, Boston and London o Behavioural and Social Sciences E Applied Sciences F Computer and Springer-Verlag Systems Sciences Berlin Heidelberg New York G Ecological Sciences London Paris Tokyo Hong Kong H Cell Biology Barcelona Budapest I Global Environmental Change NATo-pea DATABASE The electronic index to the NATO ASI Series provides full bibliographical references (with keywords and/or abstracts) to more than 30000 contributions from international scientists published in all sections of the NATO ASI Series. Access to the NATO-PCO DATABASE compiled by the NATO Publication Coordination Office is possible in two ways: - via online FILE 128 (NATO-PCO DATABASE) hosted by ESRIN, Via Galileo Galilei, 1-00044 Frascati, Italy. - via CD-ROM "NATO Science & Technology Disk" with user-friendly retrieval software in English, French and German (© WTV GmbH and DATAWARE Technologies Inc. 1992). The CD-ROM can be ordered through any member of the Board of Publishers or through NATO-PCO, Overijse, Belgium. Series I: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 25 The Solar Engine and Its Influence on Terrestrial Atmosphere and Climate Edited by Elizabeth Nesme-Ribes CNRS, Observatoire de Paris 5, place Jules Janssen F-92195 Meudon, France Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York London Paris Tokyo Hong Kong Barcelona Budapest Published in cooperation with NATO Scientific Affairs Division Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on the solar engine and its influence on terrestrial atmosphere and climate, held in Paris, France, October 25-29, 1993 ISBN-13: 978-3-642-79259-5 e-ISBN-13: 978-3-642-79257-1 001: 10.1007/978-3-642-79257-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data. The solar engine and its influence on terrestrial atmosphere and climate / edited by Elizabeth Nesme-Ribes. p. cm. - (NATO ASI series. Series I, Global environmental change; vol. 25) "Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on the Solar Engine and its Influence on Terrestrial Atmosphere and Climate, held in Paris, France, October 25-29, 1993" - T. p. verso. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 3-540- 58417-X (Berlin: acid-free paper) 1. Solar activity-Congresses. 2. Solar radiation-Congresses. 3. Climatic changes-Congresses. I. Nesme-Ribes, Elizabeth, 1942- . II. NATO Advanced Research Workshop on the Solar Engine and its Influence on Terrestrial Atmosphere and Climate (1993: Paris, France) III. Series. QC883.2.S6S6 1994 551.5'271-dc20 94-34430 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcast ing, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1994 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1994 Typesetting: Camera ready by authors SPIN 10100917 31/3130 -543210 -Printed on acid-free paper PREFACE The message of sunspots from the interior of the Sun to the Earth's climate When Galileo was summoned before the Inquisition on April 12, 1633, the main accusations laid against him concerned the doubts he expressed about Aristotle's theory of the universe. Aristotle's idea was that the Earth was the centre of the cosmos and that all of the stars, including the Sun, turned around it. Moreover, for Aristotle and the world of the Inquisitors, the Sun was a perfect celestial body. Now, Galileo had discovered spots on the Sun. These spots were seen as imperfections, and not just surface markings, but coming from within the Sun. Worse yet, they revolved around the Sun. All this supported the newfangled theory of Copernicus, and undermined a system of thought that had reigned supreme for centuries. Man of science that he was, and a prudent Catholic too, Galileo strived all his life to prove that Copernicus' astronomical concept was compatible with the word of the Bible. He proposed that there were not two truths but a single divine truth. It was just expressed in two different languages : there was the language of the common people, with its imprecision and inconsistencies, but intuitively understandable by everyone; and then there was the precise language of science with its strict regard for observation, which only a chosen few can grasp [L. Geymonat. 1992]. As we know, Galileo was unable to convince the Catholic Church of this, and a bitter fight ensued that led to his trial in 1663, and the subsequent bannings of his works. What are the consequences four centuries later? These sunspots that were so unacceptable to Galileo' s prosecutors contain a wealth of information that is as explosive today as it is precious, even beyond what Galileo suspected. Not only do they tell us how the Sun turns on its axis, but they continually vary in number, hinting at secrets yet untold. They turn out to be sites of intense magnetic fields, for example, and are the most direct indicators we have of variations inside the Sun. Solar rotation begets these magnetic fields, acting like VI a dynamo that converts kinetic energy into magnetic and thermal energy. What is more, sunspots and other manifestations of the magnetic field could very well be the reason why the thermal energy the Sun radiates toward Earth varies too. And if these energy variations have any long-term components and are large enough, this can result in climatic fluctuations here on Earth. So sunspots are still feeding grist to the scandal mill; they are the most direct evidence we have of solar variability, and this variability may influence the Earth's climate. If Galileo were to be indicted by a scientific court to-day, he would have more counts against him than ever: now there is the effect of the Sun's magnetism on the Earth's climate. Instead of questioning a time-honoured philosophy, he would be challenging entrenched scientific dogmas. Of course nobody doubts that the Sun is our source of life, and governs the climate as a whole. But the possibility that "short" term solar variations might play a role in climate has been given short shrift. And yet, is there any other realistic way of predicting any changes Man may unwittingly make in the Earth's climate, if we neglect to take solar variability into account in the climatic model ? To gain a better understanding of the Sun-climate interaction over periods of the order of a century, we must first take a look at what we know about the mechanisms governing the solar cycle. Since Galileo's time, a rich harvest of data has been garnered, most of it in the form of sunspot observations. This we can use to trace out the history of solar variability over all this time since. What are the pertinent facts about the Sun? The Sun does not rotate like a solid body. Solar magnetic activity derives its energy from the non-uniformity of solar rotation. Sunspots come and go periodically in ll-y and 80-y cycles, and possibly other periodicities too. What would we like to know more about ? The cause for underlying non-uniform solar rotation and the solar dynamo; the mechanism behind the Maunder minimum and its consequences in terms of solar energy output; and, of course, a prediction scheme for these minima. Along this line of thought, solar-type stars could provide good analogies for our Sun. VII If solar magnetic fields have any significant effects on the solar output, the question naturally arises as to how much solar forcing there is on the Earth's atmosphere and climate. From the climatic end of the process, many questions have to be addressed. Among the most urgent are: the response of the Earth's atmosphere to solar perturbations, the response of the complex atmosphere-ocean-biosphere system, the reality of secular climatic fluctuations linked with solar cycles, and the capability of climatic models to correctly reproduce the observed climatic fluctuations. The climate has always been a central human concern, and humanity has usually faced it with fatalism. As J. C. Andre (Meteo-France) once pointed out, Man has always wanted to control the elements to command rain and fine weather. By changing his environment, even unintentionally, Man is somehow achieving this goal (Mouvement Universel de la Responsabilite Scientifique, special issue, 1992). But it is perhaps under the very impetus of his anthropocentric way of thinking that he tends to draw hasty conclusions about why our environment is getting warmer today. While it is true that much is at stake, and that the individual and society should be made aware of their responsibilities, should not we still soberly admit that there are two ways of talking about the question - that of the intuitive man in the street and that of the scientists -just like at the dawn of the Enlightenment? Indeed, if we want to be truly aware of what is threatening our environment, we must take an objective look at all of the factors that might enter into the equation, with their uncertainties and their limitations. From October 25 to 29, 1993, as part of the NATO environmental global change program, forty-nine scientists gathered at the Observatoire de Paris to make some headway in our understanding of climatic change. If only we have heard and understood Galileo's plea, echoing to us from beyond the centuries, then surely this effort will bring us closer to some more unified idea of the truth. E. Nesme-Ribes VIII References L. Geymonat, La vie de Galilee, translation, 1992. J. C. Andre, Les Cahiers du Mouvement Universel de la Responsibilite Scientifique, 1992 TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface by E. Nesme-Ribes The solar dynamo by Roberts, P.H. 1 The differential solar rotation by Rudiger, G., Kitchatinov, L.L. 27 Oscillatory dynamos showing change of parity on a large time scale by Krause, F. 49 A new reconstruction of solar activity, 1610-1993 by Hoyt, D.V., Schatten, K.H., Nesme-Ribes, E. 57 The Maunder minimum and the solar dynamo by Nesme-Ribes, E., Sokoloff, D., Ribes, J.C., Kremliovsky, M. 71 Panel discussion on The modern status of solar dynamo by Sokoloff, D. 99 Theories of radius and luminosity variations by Spruit, H.C. 107 A technique for estimating long-term variations of solar total irradiance : Preliminary estimates based on observations of the Sun and solar-type stars by Soon, W.H., Baliunas, S.L., Zhang, Q, 133 x Surrogates for total solar irradiance by Livingston, W. 145 Solar forcing of global change by Lean, J. 163 The observed spatial non-uniformity and temporal variability of the solar limb-darkening function by Kroll, RJ. 185 Panel discussion on Solar diameter variations by Delache, P., Kroll, RJ. 193 Atmospheric 14C as a proxy of solar and climatic change by Stuiver, M. 203 lOBe as an indicator of solar variability and climate by Beer, J., Joos, F., Lukasczyk, Ch., Mende, W., Rodriguez, J., Siegenthaler, U., Stellmacher, R 221 Panel discussions on Total solar irradiance variations and the Maunder minimum by Pap, J.M., White, O.R. 235 The quasi-biennial oscillation in the Earth's atmosphere and its links to longer period variability by Holton, J. 259 The quasi-biennial oscillation observed in the semi diurnal ground pressure data and in the ionospheric F layer by Teitelbaum, H. 275
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