The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour

1103 Pages·2017·10.358 MB·English

by  Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans, Michael S. Lewis-Beck

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The SAGE Handbook of
Electoral Behaviour
BK-SAGE-ARZHEIMER_ETAL-160488-Book.indb 1 2/15/2017 5:53:30 PM
Sara Miller McCune founded SAGE Publishing in 1965 to support
the dissemination of usable knowledge and educate a global
community. SAGE publishes more than 1000 journals and over
800 new books each year, spanning a wide range of subject areas.
Our growing selection of library products includes archives, data,
case studies and video. SAGE remains majority owned by our
founder and after her lifetime will become owned by a charitable
trust that secures the company’s continued independence.
Los Angeles | London | New Delhi | Singapore | Washington DC | Melbourne
BK-SAGE-ARZHEIMER_ETAL-160488-Book.indb 2 2/15/2017 5:53:31 PM
The SAGE Handbook of
Electoral Behaviour
Volume 1
Edited by
Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans
and Michael S. Lewis-Beck
BK-SAGE-ARZHEIMER_ETAL-160488-Book.indb 3 2/15/2017 5:53:31 PM
SAGE Publications Ltd
1 Oliver’s Yard
55 City Road Introduction & editorial Chapter 22 © Wouter van der
London EC1Y 1SP arrangement © Kai Arzheimer, Brug 2017
Jocelyn Evans and Michael S. Chapter 23 © Jane Green and Will
SAGE Publications Inc. Lewis-Beck 2017 Jennings 2017
2455 Teller Road Chapter 1 © Kai Arzheimer, Chapter 24 © Romain Lachat 2017
Jocelyn Evans and Michael Chapter 25 © Mary Stegmaier,
Thousand Oaks, California 91320
S. Lewis-Beck 2017 Michael S. Lewis-Beck and
Chapter 2 © Shaun Bowler 2017 Beomseob Park 2017
SAGE Publications India Pvt Ltd Chapter 3 © Åsa von Schoultz 2017 Chapter 26 © Michael S. Lewis-
B 1/I 1 Mohan Cooperative Industrial Area Chapter 4 © Hermann Schmitt and Beck and Marina Costa Lobo 2017
Mathura Road Eftichia Teperoglou 2017 Chapter 27 © Diego Garzia 2017
New Delhi 110 044 Chapter 5 © Thiago Silva and Guy Chapter 28 © Jocelyn Evans 2017
D. Whitten 2017 Chapter 29 © Thomas Zittel 2017
Chapter 6 © Lenka Bustikova and Chapter 30 © Markus Klein and
SAGE Publications Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd Elizabeth J. Zechmeister 2017 Ulrich Rosar 2017
3 Church Street Chapter 7 © Ruth Dassonneville Chapter 31 © Richard Johnston
#10-04 Samsung Hub 2017 2017
Singapore 049483 Chapter 8 © Rosie Campbell 2017 Chapter 32 © Diana C. Mutz and
Chapter 9 © Geoffrey Evans 2017 Eunji Kim 2017
Chapter 10 © Martin Elff and Sigrid Chapter 33 © Zachary Albert and
Roßteutscher 2017 Raymond La Raja 2017
Chapter 11 © Maria Sobolewska Chapter 34 © Robert Ford,
2017 Christopher Wlezien, Mark Pickup
Chapter 12 © Marc Hooghe 2017 and Will Jennings 2017
Chapter 13 © Elias Dinas 2017 Chapter 35 © Éric Bélanger and
Chapter 14 © Donald P. Green and David Trotter 2017
Susanne Baltes 2017 Chapter 36 © Andreas Murr 2017
Editor: Natalie Aguilera Chapter 15 © Todd Donovan 2017 Chapter 37 © Andreas Graefe 2017
Editorial Assistant: Colette Wilson Chapter 16 © Thomas Gschwend Chapter 38 © Andrea Ceron, Luigi
Production Editor: Rudrani Mukherjee and Michael F. Meffert 2017 Curini and Stefano M. Iacus 2017
Copyeditor: Sunrise Settings Chapter 17 © Carisa L. Bergner Chapter 39 © Robert Johns 2017
and Peter K. Hatemi 2017 Chapter 40 © Marcel Lubbers and
Proofreader: Dick Davis
Chapter 18 © David P. Redlawsk Take Sipma 2017
Indexer: Avril Ehrlich and Douglas R. Pierce 2017 Chapter 41 © Catherine de Vries
Marketing Manager: Emma Turner Chapter 19 © Alan Renwick 2017 2017
Cover Design: Wendy Scott Chapter 20 © Hanna Wass and Chapter 42 © Kai Arzheimer 2017
Printed in the UK André Blais 2017 Chapter 43 © Marianne Stewart
Chapter 21 © Robert N. Lupton, Adam 2017
M. Enders and William G. Jacoby 2017
Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or
private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the
Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, this publication
may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form, or by
any means, only with the prior permission in writing of the
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accordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright
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Library of Congress Control Number: 2017933298
At SAGE we take sustainability seriously.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication data
Most of our products are printed in the UK
using FSC papers and boards. When we
print overseas we ensure sustainable A catalogue record for this book is available from the
papers are used as measured by the British Library
PREPS grading system. We undertake an
annual audit to monitor our sustainability. ISBN 978-1-4739-1315-8
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Contents
List of Figures ix
List of Tables xi
Notes on the Editors and Contributors xiii
VOLUME 1
1 Introduction 1
Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans and Michael S. Lewis-Beck
PART I INSTITUTIONAL APPROACHES 7
2 Institutions and Voter Choice: Who Chooses, What Do
They Choose Over, and How Do They Choose 9
Shaun Bowler
3 Party Systems and Voter Alignments 30
Åsa von Schoultz (née Bengtsson)
4 The Study of Less Important Elections 56
Hermann Schmitt and Eftichia Teperoglou
5 Clarity of Responsibility and Vote Choice 80
Thiago Silva and Guy D. Whitten
6 Voting in New(er) Democracies 92
Lenka Bustikova and Elizabeth J. Zechmeister
PART II SOCIOLOGICAL APPROACHES 135
7 Age and Voting 137
Ruth Dassonneville
8 Gender and Voting 159
Rosie Campbell
9 Social Class and Voting 177
Geoffrey Evans
10 Religion 199
Martin Elff and Sigrid Roßteutscher
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vi The SAGe hAndbook of elecTorAl behAviour
11 Race, Ethnicity and Elections: From Recognizable
Patterns to Generalized Theories 220
Maria Sobolewska
12 Social Networks and Voter Mobilization 241
Marc Hooghe
PART III PARTISANSHIP 263
13 The Evolving Role of Partisanship 265
Elias Dinas
14 Party Identification: Meaning and Measurement 287
Donald P. Green and Susanne Baltes
15 Cognitive Mobilization 313
Todd Donovan
PART IV VOTER DECISION-MAKING 337
16 Strategic Voting 339
Thomas Gschwend and Michael F. Meffert
17 Integrating Genetics into the Study of Electoral Behavior 367
Carisa L. Bergner and Peter K. Hatemi
18 Emotions and Voting 406
David P. Redlawsk and Douglas R. Pierce
19 Referendums 433
Alan Renwick
20 Turnout 459
Hanna Wass and André Blais
VOLUME 2
PART V ISSUES AND ATTITUDES 489
21 Ideology and Core Values 491
Robert N. Lupton, Adam M. Enders, and William G. Jacoby
22 Issue Ownership: An Ambiguous Concept 521
Wouter van der Brug
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conTenTS vii
23 Valence 538
Jane Green and Will Jennings
24 Value Cleavages 561
Romain Lachat
25 The VP-Function: A Review 584
Mary Stegmaier, Michael S. Lewis-Beck and
Beomseob Park
26 The Economic Vote: Ordinary vs.
Extraordinary Times 606
Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Marina Costa Lobo
PART VI CANDIDATES AND CAMPAIGNS 631
27 Voter Evaluation of Candidates and Party Leaders 633
Diego Garzia
28 Candidate Location and Vote Choice 654
Jocelyn Evans
29 The Personal Vote 668
Thomas Zittel
30 Candidate Attractiveness 688
Markus Klein and Ulrich Rosar
31 Campaign Effects 709
Richard Johnston
32 Economic Voting in a New Media Environment:
Preliminary Evidence and Implications 733
Diana C. Mutz and Eunji Kim
33 Campaign Spending 759
Zachary Albert and Raymond La Raja
PART VII POLLING AND FORECASTING 785
34 Polls and Votes 787
Robert Ford, Christopher Wlezien, Mark Pickup and
Will Jennings
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viii The SAGe hAndbook of elecTorAl behAviour
35 Econometric Approaches to Forecasting 813
Éric Bélanger and David Trotter
36 Wisdom of Crowds 835
Andreas Murr
37 Political Markets 861
Andreas Graefe
38 Social Media and Elections: A Meta-analysis of
Online-based Electoral Forecasts 883
Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini and Stefano M. Iacus
PART VIII METHODS 905
39 Experiments 907
Robert Johns
40 Multi-level Modelling of Voting Behaviour 934
Marcel Lubbers and Take Sipma
41 Cross-national Data Sources: Opportunities and Challenges 952
Catherine de Vries
42 Psephology and Technology, or: The Rise and
Rise of the Script-Kiddie 972
Kai Arzheimer
43 Conclusion 996
Marianne Stewart
Index 1005
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