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The Public Understanding of Political Integrity Political Corruption and Governance series Series editors: Paul M. Heywoodis Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences and Sir Francis Hill Professor of European Politics, University of Nottingham, UK. Dan Houghis Reader in Politics and Director of the Sussex Centre for the Study of Corruption (SCSC) at the University of Sussex. This series aims to analyse the nature and scope of, as well as possible remedies for, political corruption. The rise to prominence over the last 15 years of corruption-related problems and of the ‘good governance’ agenda as the principal means to tackle them has led to the development of a plethora of (national and international) policy proposals, international agreements and anti-corruption programmes and initiatives. National governments, international organisations and NGOs all now claim to take very seriously the need to tackle issues of corruption. It is thus unsurprising that over the last decade and a half, a significant body of work with a wide and varied focus has been published in academic journals and in international discussion papers. This series seeks to provide a forum through which to address this growing body of literature. It will invite not just in-depth single country analyses of corruption and attempts to combat it, but also comparative studies that explore the experiences of different states (or regions) in dealing with different types of corruption. We also invite monographs that take an overtly thematic focus, analysing trends and developments in one type of corruption across either time or space, as well as theoretically informed analysis of discrete events. Titles include: Bruce Buchan and Lisa Hill AN INTELLECTUAL HISTORY OF POLITICAL CORRUPTION Dan Hough CORRUPTION, ANTI-CORRUPTION AND GOVERNANCE Jonathan Rose THE PUBLIC UNDERSTANDING OF POLITICAL INTEGRITY The Case for Probity Perceptions Political Corruption and Governance series Series Standing Order ISBN 978-113703457-1 (hardback) and 978-113703458-8 (paperback) You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a standing order. Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with your name and address, the title of the series and the ISBNs quoted above. Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, England The Public Understanding of Political Integrity The Case for Probity Perceptions Jonathan Rose School of Politics and International Relations, University of Nottingham © Jonathan Rose 2014 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2014 978-1-137-34374-1 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2014 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, HampshireRG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries ISBN 978-1-349-46584-2 ISBN 978-1-137-34375-8 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781137343758 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. Contents Acknowledgements vi List of Tables and Figures vii 1 Introduction 1 Part I Foundations 19 2 Latent Variables: Measures and Implications 21 3 Process Performance and Political Trust: Structural Models 46 Part II Causes of Perceptions of Public Probity 69 4 Partisan Co-alignment and Perceptions of Public Probity 71 5 ‘Why We Hate Politics’? The Impact of Negative Political 89 Events upon Political Perceptions of Public Probity 6 Perceptions of Public Probity after ‘MPs’ Expenses’: 107 The Impact of the Local MP’s Performance 7 Conclusion: Public Probity 122 Notes for Policymakers 132 Appendices 134 Notes 149 Bibliography 160 Index 171 v Acknowledgements As with any book, the production of this work would not have been possible without a significant amount of help and support from a wide variety of people and organisations. In particular, I would like to thank Prof. Cees van der Eijk (University of Nottingham) who has provided immeasurable support in the development of this study, and who has had a profound effect upon my own methodological training. I would also like to thank Dr. Lauren McLaren (University of Nottingham) and Peter Hawthorne (Committee on Standards in Public Life, UK), who both provided very helpful and considered feedback upon an earlier version of this manuscript; this book is substantially better for their involvement. I must also thank the ESRC and Committee on Standards in Public Life (CSPL), who both provided funding and support for the initial stages of this project (project ES/G004544/1). In particular, this project could not have been completed without the help of the CSPL, whose data I analyse here. Being mindful of public beliefs is incredibly impor- tant for every political system, and the CSPL should be heartily con- gratulated for their work in this regard. It is very easy to disregard the public’s attitudes, and very hard to consider them properly; the will- ingness of the CSPL to take on this project should reflect positively upon them. I am also very grateful for funding from the ESRC and Hong Kong Research Grants Council, which has provided me with the opportunity to complete this manuscript (project RES-000-22-4407). I would also like to thank the R Development Core Team, as well as the numerous authors of libraries used in this book, for developing one of the most powerful tools available for statistical analysis, and giving it away freely. Free (‘Open Source’) Software is incredibly important academically, and the ability to investigate the functioning of libraries down to the base code has been useful on more than one occasion. I have, of course, special thanks for my family: in particular, my wife, Ceri; my son, Noah; and my daughter, Georgia, whose impending birth was a particularly effective motivator to finish this book in a timely fashion. Ceri has been incredibly supportive during the whole of this project; I would have struggled to produce anything, let alone a full manuscript, without her help and support. Finally, I would also like to thank the series editors Profs. Dan Hough and Paul Heywood, along with the editorial staff at Palgrave Macmillan. vi List of Tables and Figures Tables Table 1.1 Percentage of British citizens expressing trust in 5 three groups of professionals Table 1.2 Survey information 14 Table 2.1 Results of a Mokken scale analysis of three 35 batteries of items Table 2.2 Results of a Mokken scale analysis of all items 37 simultaneously Table 3.1 Comparative structural model fit 64 Table 4.1 A typology of unqualified co-alignment 77 Table 4.2 A typology of qualified co-alignment 77 Table 4.3 Predictors of perceived public probity at the 84 national level Table 4.4 Predictors of perceived public probity in Scotland 86 Table 5.1 Average NPE ‘treatment’ effects 104 Table 6.1 Impact of local MPs’ ‘expenses’ involvement upon 118 perceptions of public probity Figures Figure 2.1 Graphical representation of a latent variable model 23 Figure 3.1 Model 5: A reciprocal model of political trust and 63 political performance Figure 5.1 Mentions of ‘Derek Conway’ in UK national 97 newspapers vii 1 Introduction This book makes a case for the importance of citizens’ perceptions of public probity for our understanding of how citizens relate to their state. As it is conceived of in this study, ‘public probity’ can usefully be thought of as ‘playing by the rules’ or the ‘spirit of public service’: public probity is less about a set of formal, prescriptive rules, more an exhortation to the appropriate exercise of public office. Such a focus upon the ‘rules of the game’ results in the primary concern of this study being about the processof governing, as opposed to the outcomes governors can produce. Intuitively, we would expect how citizens eval- uate governors on these dimensions to be particularly important for understanding citizen disaffection, and moreover how citizens relate to the political circumstances that confront them. Yet there has been little academic or practitioner-led investigation into such matters. Thus we are left with little more than the suggestion that ‘public probity’ is a useful tool (either conceptually or empirically) for evaluating percep- tions of the political world. Using a series of detailed analyses upon a major newly available series of datasets, this study examines the utility of a public probity-focused approach to understanding citizen disaffec- tion, and makes a case for deeper and more searching research into this area. In short: this book shows that perceptions of public probity matter: that they are coherent, substantively meaningful, responsive, and that they cannot be explained away simply by ephemeral political events. In doing so, this study also presents new substantive findings about the causes of political perceptions and the consequences of polit- ical realities. The lack of attention paid to perceptions of the processof governing within academic literature is interesting, given that it remains an important evaluative criterion for political systems as a whole. Political 1 2 The Public Understanding of Political Integrity systems can be evaluated on at least two criteria: whether the system can produce desired ‘outcomes’, and the process by which those out- comes are created. ‘Outcomes’ are evidently important for any political system. Indeed, it is plausible to claim that the primary purpose of any political system is to produce outcomes that are desired by the polit- ically relevant actors (a similar point is noted by Easton, 1965, p.230). Yet procedural issues are also important; it matters how decisions come to be made and how policies are implemented (see Rothstein, 2011). Hitherto, much academic discussion has focused upon the ‘output’ question. In particular, there has been a strong focus upon the extent to which the policies espoused by political candidates and parties match the policy preferences of citizens, particularly the median voter, and the consequences of this (see for example Downs, 1957; Stimson, 1999; Powell, 2000; Klingemann et al., 2006; van der Eijk and Franklin, 2009).1Even within the less outcome-orientated, more explicitly attitu- dinal literature, the role of the political process is often under- considered (see for example, Miller, 1974; Citrin, 1974; Miller and Borrelli, 1991; Hetherington, 1998, p.795; Newton and Norris, 2000; Clarke et al., 2009, pp.296–301; for important exceptions see Tyler, 1994; Gibson and Caldeira, 1995; van den Bos et al., 1998; Tyler, 2000; Hibbing and Theiss-Morse, 2001; Mishler and Rose, 2001; Carman, 2010; Lascoumes, 2010; Doherty and Wolak, 2012; Rose and Heywood, 2013; Licht et al., in press). Thus, we are left with relatively little in- formation about whether, for example, a dictatorship that (more or less) consistently produced the desired outcome of the median voter would be an acceptable institutional arrangement for citizens. A priori, it may be assumed that if citizens are ‘rational’, and a dictatorship can deliver acceptable outcomes, a dictatorship would be as acceptable as a well performing democracy. Yet, even though citizens often express high levels of dissatisfaction with the functioning of their political systems (Hay, 2007), a large majority of citizens report that they consider democracy to the best form of government (Hay, 2007, p.32; see also Norris, 2011, p.93). Clearly something is missing when analyses focus so heavily upon outcomes. A narrow focus upon outcomes alone thus seems problematic. Analysing perceptions of public probity allows us to go some way towards understanding the importance of such pro- cedural matters. In addressing the ‘process’ question, this study adds to a relatively small literature concerning the impact of political processes, indepen- dent of outputs, upon citizens’ beliefs. Moreover, the focus of this study – perceived public probity – represents an under-utilised way of

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