oT pic Philosophy & uS tb opic Intellectual History Modern Philosophy The Philosopher’s Toolkit: How to Be the Most Rational Person in Any Room oC urse uG ideob ok Professor Patrick Grim tS ate nU iev rsity o f eN w oY r k at tS ony Brook PUBLISHED BY: THE GREAT COURSES Corporate Headquarters 4840 Westfelds Boulevard, Suite 500 Chantilly, Virginia 20151-2299 Phone: 1-800-832-2412 Fax: 703-378-3819 www.thegreatcourses.com Copyright © The Teaching Company, 2013 Printed in the United States of America This book is in copyright. All rights reserved. Without limiting the rights under copyright reserved above, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form, or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise), without the prior written permission of The Teaching Company. Patrick Grim, B.Phil., Ph.D. Distinguished Teaching Professor of Philosophy State University of New York at Stony Brook rofessor Patrick Grim is Distinguished Teaching Professor of Philosophy at the PState University of New York (SUNY) at Stony Brook, where he has taught since 1976. Having graduated with highest honors in both Anthropology and Philosophy from the University of California, Santa Cruz, Professor Grim was named a Fulbright Fellow to the University of St. Andrews, Scotland, from which he received his B.Phil. He received his Ph.D. from Boston University with a dissertation on ethical relativism and spent a year as a Mellon Faculty Fellow at Washington University. In addition to being named SUNY Distinguished Teaching Professor, he has received the President’s and Chancellor’s awards for excellence in teaching. Professor Grim was named Marshall Weinberg Distinguished Visiting Professor at the University of Michigan in 2006 and Visiting Fellow at the Center for Philosophy of Science at the University of Pittsburgh in 2007. He also has been a frequent Visiting Scholar at the Center for the Study of Complex Systems at the University of Michigan. Professor Grim has published extensively in computational modeling and on such topics as theoretical biology, linguistics, decision theory, and artifcial intelligence. His work spans ethics; philosophical logic; game theory; contemporary metaphysics; and philosophy of science, law, mind, language, and religion. Professor Grim is the author of The Incomplete Universe: Totality, Knowledge, and Truth and the coauthor of The Philosophical Computer: Exploratory Essays in Philosophical Computer Modeling (with Gary Mar and Paul St. Denis); Beyond Sets: A Venture in Collection-Theoretic Revisionism (with Nicholas Rescher); and Refexivity: From Paradox to Consciousness (also with Nicholas Rescher). He is the editor of Mind and i Consciousness: 5 Questions and Philosophy of Science and the Occult and a founding coeditor of more than 30 volumes of The Philosopher’s Annual, an anthology of the best articles published in philosophy each year. He has taught two previous Great Courses: Questions of Value and Philosophy of Mind: Brains, Consciousness, and Thinking Machines. ■ ii Table of Contents INTRODUCTION Professor Biography ............................................................................ i Course Scope .....................................................................................1 LECTURE GUIDES LECTURE 1 How We Think and How to Think Better .............................................4 LECTURE 2 Cool Rationality and Hot Thought .....................................................13 LECTURE 3 The Strategy of Visualization ............................................................22 LECTURE 4 Visualizing Concepts and Propositions ............................................30 LECTURE 5 The Power of Thought Experiments .................................................40 LECTURE 6 Thinking like Aristotle ........................................................................48 LECTURE 7 Ironclad, Airtight Validity ...................................................................60 LECTURE 8 Thinking outside the Box ..................................................................71 LECTURE 9 The Flow of Argument .....................................................................78 LECTURE 10 Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart ............................................87 iii Table of Contents LECTURE 11 Why We Make Misteaks ..................................................................95 LECTURE 12 Rational Discussion in a Polarized Context ....................................103 LECTURE 13 Rhetoric versus Rationality ............................................................. 111 LECTURE 14 Bogus Arguments and How to Defuse Them ................................119 LECTURE 15 The Great Debate ...........................................................................128 LECTURE 16 Outwitting the Advertiser.................................................................134 LECTURE 17 Putting a Spin on Statistics .............................................................141 LECTURE 18 Poker, Probability, and Everyday Life .............................................148 LECTURE 19 Decisions, Decisions ......................................................................156 LECTURE 20 Thinking Scientifcally .....................................................................165 LECTURE 21 Put It to the Test—Beautiful Experiments .......................................173 LECTURE 22 Game Theory and Beyond ............................................................183 iv Table of Contents LECTURE 23 Thinking with Models ......................................................................192 LECTURE 24 Lessons from the Great Thinkers ...................................................201 SUPPLEmENTaL maTERIaL Glossary .........................................................................................209 Bibliography ....................................................................................231 Answers ..........................................................................................244 Answers for some sets of Questons to Consider and Exercises can be found in the “Answers” secton at the end of this guidebook. v vi The Philosopher’s Toolkit: How to Be the most Rational Person in any Room Scope: hinking is one of the things we do best. Wouldn’t it be great if we could do it even better? This course, The Philosopher’s Toolkit, gives Tyou a set of thinking techniques designed with that goal in mind: tools for conceptual visualization, critical analysis, creative thinking, logical inference, rational decision, real-world testing, effective reasoning, and rational argument. The course uses interactive engagement to introduce a range of conceptual methods and perspectives: mind-stretching philosophical puzzles, mental exercises by example, thought experiments on which to test your powers, and deep questions to ponder. You’ll learn “hands on” the simple heuristics that make us smart; the basic strategies of decision theory and conceptual modeling; and how to handle everyday probabilities, track a train of thought, outwit advertisers, and detect a spin in statistics. The course also emphasizes rationality in the social context: how to use the wisdom of crowds; how to analyze the fow of thought in a debate; and how to defuse fallacious reasoning, defate rhetoric, and break through opinion polarization. You can apply your new tools of analysis in evaluating arguments on both sides in a “great debate.” Decision theory, game theory, probability, and experimental design are all introduced as part of the toolkit, but with a philosophical examination of their limitations, as well as their strengths. In order to think better, we also have to understand why we make mistakes— the systematic ways in which our thinking goes wrong. You’ll be surprised to fnd how poor we are at noticing continuity changes in both movies and in everyday life; in fact, we are “change blind.” Our memories, however vivid, are created in large part by things that happened after the event: what questions were asked, how they were asked, and how the story was retold. Our estimates of risk and danger often have more to do with the vividness of a mental picture than with any clear-headed consideration of the probabilities. This course draws lessons from a wide range of literature in psychology and 1 cognitive science in exploring the systematic conceptual biases that mislead us all—and how we can compensate for those biases. It also focuses on questions in philosophy of mind regarding the role of emotion in thought, individual and social rationality, and the comparative powers of gut instinct versus systematic analysis. Is emotion the enemy of rationality or a force we need to better understand as a conceptual resource in its own right? All of the techniques in the course are outlined with the history of philosophy and science as a background. The power of visualization is introduced using insights in the history of thought from Pythagoras to von Neumann. The power of thought experiments is illustrated with examples from Galileo, from Einstein, and from contemporary philosophy of mind. Important perspectives and approaches are traced to Plato, Schopenhauer, Hobbes, Pascal, and Descartes. Concepts important for analyzing empirical data are drawn from the work of philosophers Karl Popper, John Stuart Mill, and Charles Sanders Peirce but are illustrated using Newton’s experiments in a darkened room, R. A. Fisher’s “Lady Tasting Tea” experiment, and Richard Feynman’s experiment with a glass of ice water during televised hearings on the Challenger disaster. The history behind gambling and probability theory, game theory and the Cold War, and the strange tale of Aristotle’s manuscripts all form part of the story. The Philosopher’s Toolkit is a perfect introduction to applied philosophy, designed for application in everyday life. The emphasis throughout is on practical conceptual strategies that are useful in any area of application, with interactive examples of logic in action taken from business, the media, and political debate. What are the advertising tricks that we all have to watch out for? What are the standard forms of bogus argument? How can we manage empirical data and statistical information without being misleading and without being misled? How can we have a rational discussion in a polarized environment? From these lectures, you’ll gain a wide set of useful new thinking skills, methods, and techniques but also a deeper psychological, philosophical, and historical appreciation for the thinking skills you already have. 2 Scope