The Oxford handbook of polling and survey methods PDF
Preview The Oxford handbook of polling and survey methods
The Oxford Handbook of P O L L I N G A N D S U RV E Y M E T H O D S The Oxford Handbook of POLLING AND SURVEY METHODS Edited by LONNA RAE ATKESON and R. MICHAEL ALVAREZ 1 3 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries. Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press 198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America. © Oxford University Press 2018 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by license, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reproduction rights organization. Inquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Atkeson, Lonna Rae, 1965– editor. | Alvarez, R. Michael, 1964– editor. Title: The Oxford handbook of polling and survey methods / edited by Lonna Rae Atkeson and R. Michael Alvarez. Description: New York : Oxford University Press, [2018] Identifiers: LCCN 2018008316 | ISBN 9780190213299 (Hard Cover) | ISBN 9780190213305 (updf) | ISBN 9780190903824 (epub) Subjects: LCSH: Public opinion polls. | Social surveys. Classification: LCC HM1236 .O945 2018 | DDC 303.3/8—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2018008316 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Printed by Sheridan Books, Inc., United States of America Contents Contributors ix Introduction to Polling and Survey Methods 1 Lonna Rae Atkeson and R. Michael Alvarez PART I SURVEY DESIGN 1. Total Survey Error 13 Herbert F. Weisberg 2. Longitudinal Surveys: Issues and Opportunities 28 D. Sunshine Hillygus and Steven A. Snell 3. Mixing Survey Modes and Its Implications 53 Lonna Rae Atkeson and Alex N. Adams 4. Taking the Study of Political Behavior Online 76 Stephen Ansolabehere and Brian F. Schaffner 5. Sampling for Studying Context: Traditional Surveys and New Directions 97 James G. Gimpel 6. Questionnaire Science 113 Daniel L. Oberski PART II DATA COLLECTION 7. Exit Polling Today and What the Future May Hold 141 Anthony M. Salvanto 8. Sampling Hard- to- Locate Populations: Lessons from Sampling Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) 155 Prakash Adhikari and Lisa A. Bryant vi Contents 9. Reaching Beyond Low-H anging Fruit: Surveying Low-I ncidence Populations 181 Justin A. Berry, Youssef Chouhoud, and Jane Junn 10. Improving the Quality of Survey Data Using CAPI Systems in Developing Countries 207 Mitchell A. Seligson and Daniel E. Moreno Morales 11. Survey Research in the Arab World 220 Lindsay J. Benstead 12. The Language- Opinion Connection 249 Efrén O. Pérez PART III ANALYSIS AND PRESENTATION 13. Issues in Polling Methodologies: Inference and Uncertainty 275 Jeff Gill and Jonathan Homola 14. Causal Inference with Complex Survey Designs: Generating Population Estimates Using Survey Weights 299 Ines Levin and Betsy Sinclair 15. Aggregating Survey Data to Estimate Subnational Public Opinion 316 Paul Brace 16. Latent Constructs in Public Opinion 338 Christopher Warshaw 17. Measuring Group Consciousness: Actions Speak Louder Than Words 363 Kim Proctor 18. Cross-N ational Surveys and the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems: When Country/E lections Become Cases 388 Jeffrey A. Karp and Jack Vowles 19. Graphical Visualization of Polling Results 410 Susanna Makela, Yajuan Si, and Andrew Gelman 20. Graphical Displays for Public Opinion Research 439 Saundra K. Schneider and William G. Jacoby Contents vii PART IV NEW FRONTIERS 21. Survey Experiments: Managing the Methodological Costs and Benefits 483 Yanna Krupnikov and Blake Findley 22. Using Qualitative Methods in a Quantitative Survey Research Agenda 505 Kinsey Gimbel and Jocelyn Newsome 23. Integration of Contextual Data: Opportunities and Challenges 533 Armando Razo 24. Measuring Public Opinion with Social Media Data 555 Marko Klašnja, Pablo Barberá, Nicholas Beauchamp, Jonathan Nagler, and Joshua A. Tucker 25. Expert Surveys as a Measurement Tool: Challenges and New Frontiers 583 Cherie D. Maestas 26. The Rise of Poll Aggregation and Election Forecasting 609 Natalie Jackson Index 633 Contributors Alex N. Adams is a PhD student in the Department of Political Science at the University of New Mexico. His research interests focus on political psychology and survey methodology. Prakash Adhikari is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Central Michigan University. His research and teaching interests lie at the intersection of comparative pol- itics and international relations, with specific focus on civil war, forced migration, and transitional justice. R. Michael Alvarez is a Professor in the Division of Humanities and Social Sciences at the California Institute of Technology. His primary research interests are public opinion and voting behavior, election technology and administration, electoral politics, and sta- tistical and computer modeling. Stephen Ansolabehere is the Frank G. Thompson Professor of Government at Harvard University where he studies elections, democracy, and the mass media. He is a Principal Investigator of the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, and his principal areas are electoral politics, representation, and public opinion. Lonna Rae Atkeson is a Professor and Regents Lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the University of New Mexico where she directs the Institute for Social Research and the Center for the Study of Voting, Elections and Democracy. Her primary interests are the areas of survey methodology, election science and administration, and political behavior. Pablo Barberá is an Assistant Professor of Computational Social Science in the Methodology Department at the London School of Economics. His primary areas of re- search include social media and politics, computational social science, and comparative electoral behavior and political representation. Nicholas Beauchamp is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Northeastern University. He specializes in U.S. politics (political behavior, campaigns, opinion, polit- ical psychology, and social media) and political methodology (quantitative text analysis, machine learning, Bayesian methods, agent- based models, and networks). Lindsay J. Benstead is an Associate Professor of Political Science in the Mark O. Hatfield School of Government and Interim Director of the Middle East Studies Center (MESC) at Portland State University, Contributing Scholar in the Women’s Rights in the Middle
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