The Nature of Scientific Evidence: Statistical, Philosophical, and Empirical Considerations

586 Pages·2004·1.925 MB·English

by  Mark L. Taper, Subhash R. Lele

The Nature of Scientific Evidence

THE NATURE OF
SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE
Statistical, Philosophical, and
Empirical Considerations
edited by mark l. taper and subhash r. lele
The University of Chicago Press / Chicago and London
mark l. taperis associate professor in the Department of Ecology at Montana State University.
subhash r. leleis professor in the Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences at the
University of Alberta.
The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637
The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London
© 2004 by The University of Chicago
All rights reserved. Published 2004
Printed in the United States of America
No copyright is claimed for chapter 8.1: commentary.
13 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 1 2 3 4 5
ISBN: 0-226-78955-1 (cloth)
ISBN: 0-226-78957-8 (paper)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
The nature of scientific evidence : statistical, philosophical, and empirical considerations / edited by
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele.
p. cm.
Includes index.
ISBN 0-226-78955-1 (cloth : alk. paper)—ISBN 0-226-78957-8 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Science—Statistical methods. 2. Science—Methodology. I. Taper, Mark L., 1952–.
II. Lele, Subhash
Q180.55.S7N37 2004
507(cid:2).2—dc22
2004003548
(cid:2)(cid:3)The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American
National Standard for Information Sciences–Permanence of Paper for Printed Library
Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1992.
mark l. taper dedicates this book
To his parents Phyllis and Bernard Taper,
To his wife Ann Patricia Thompson,
And to his daughter Oona Alwynne Taper, who,
at the age of three, ceased to ask “Why?”
and began to ask “How do you know dat?”
subhash r. lele dedicates this book
To Mr.D. V. Sathe and the late Dr. V. V. Pendse
for inspiring him to be a scientist with a social conscience.

Contents
Foreword by C. R. Rao xi
Preface xv
part 1 scientific process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
OverviewMark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
1 A Brief Tour of Statistical Concepts 3
Nicholas Lewin-Koh, Mark L. Taper, and Subhash R. Lele
2 Models of Scientific Inquiry and
Statistical Practice: Implications for
the Structure of Scientific Knowledge 17
Brian A. Maurer
2.1 Commentary Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay and
32
John G. Bennett
2.2 Commentary Mark L. Wilson 39
2.3 Rejoinder Brian A. Maurer 43
3 Experiments, Observations, and Other Kinds
of Evidence 51
Samuel M. Scheiner
3.1 Commentary Marie-Josée Fortin 66
3.2 Commentary Manuel C. Molles, Jr. 67
3.3 Rejoinder Samuel M. Scheiner 69
viii
Contents
part 2 logics of evidence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
OverviewV. P. Godambe
4 An Error-Statistical Philosophy of Evidence 79
Deborah G. Mayo
4.1 Commentary Earl D. McCoy 97
4.2 Commentary George Casella 99
4.3 Rejoinder Deborah G. Mayo 101
5 The Likelihood Paradigm for Statistical Evidence 119
Richard Royall
5.1 Commentary D. R. Cox 138
5.2 Commentary Martin Curd 140
5.3 Rejoinder Richard Royall 145
6 Why Likelihood? 153
Malcolm Forster and Elliott Sober
6.1 Commentary Michael Kruse 165
6.2 Commentary Robert J. Boik 167
6.3 Rejoinder Malcolm Forster and Elliott Sober 181
7 Evidence Functions and the Optimality of
the Law of Likelihood 191
Subhash R. Lele
7.1 Commentary Christopher C. Heyde 203
7.2 Commentary Paul I. Nelson 205
7.3 Rejoinder Subhash R. Lele 207
part 3 realities of nature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 217
OverviewMark S. Boyce
8 Whole-Ecosystem Experiments: Replication and
Arguing from Error 221
Jean A. Miller and Thomas M. Frost
8.1 Commentary William A. Link 248
8.2 Commentary Charles E. McCulloch 256
8.3 Rejoinder Jean A. Miller 258
ix
Contents
9 Dynamical Models as Paths to Evidence
in Ecology 275
Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
9.1 Commentary Steven Hecht Orzack 286
9.2 Commentary Philip M. Dixon 290
9.3 Rejoinder Mark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele 292
10 Constraints on Negative Relationships:
Mathematical Causes and
Ecological Consequences 298
James H. Brown, Edward J. Bedrick, S. K. Morgan Ernest,
Jean-Luc E. Cartron, and Jeffrey F. Kelly
10.1 Commentary Robert D. Holt and Norman A. Slade 308
10.2 Commentary Steve Cherry 315
10.3 Rejoinder James H. Brown, Edward J. Bedrick,
S. K. Morgan Ernest, Jean-Luc E. Cartron, and
318
Jeffrey F. Kelly
part 4 science, opinion, and evidence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 325
OverviewMark L. Taper and Subhash R. Lele
11 Statistics and the Scientific Method in Ecology 327
Brian Dennis
11.1 Commentary Charles E. McCulloch 360
11.2 Commentary Aaron M. Ellison 362
11.3 Rejoinder Brian Dennis 367
12 Taking the Prior Seriously: Bayesian Analysis without
Subjective Probability 379
Daniel Goodman
12.1 Commentary Nozer D. Singpurwalla 400
12.2 Rejoinder Daniel Goodman 401
13 Elicit Data, Not Prior: On Using Expert Opinion
in Ecological Studies 410
Subhash R. Lele