The Intelligence Archipelago - Higgins Counterterrorism Research

308 Pages·2005·10.63 MB·English

Joint Military Intelligence College

G
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J THE INTELLIGENCE ARCHIPELAGO
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The Community’s Struggle

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to Reform
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in the Globalized Era
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AR AR Y INTELLIGE
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Melanie M. H. Gutjahr
PCN 55646 ISBN 1-932946-03-9 TMINLIIOTJARYIN1T9E6L2LIGENECGEECLOL
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THE INTELLIGENCE ARCHIPELAGO
The Community’s Struggle to Reform
in the Globalized Era
Melanie M. H. Gutjahr
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CC Intelligence College hh
WASHINGTON, DC
May 2005
The views expressed in this book are those of the author
and do not reflect the official policy or position of the
Department of Defense or the U.S. Government
i
The Joint Military Intelligence College supports and encourages research
on intelligence issues that distills lessons and improves Intelligence
Community capabilities for policy-level and operational consumers
The Intelligence Archipelago: The Community’s Struggle to Reform
in the Globalized Era
This product has been reviewed by senior experts from academia, industry and government, and has
been approved for unrestricted distribution by the Office of Freedom of Information and Security Review,
Washington Headquarters Services. It is available to the public through the National Technical Information
Service (www.ntis.gov).
In this book, Melanie Gutjahr addresses the documentation surrounding the history of U.S. national
intelligence reform efforts, going back almost to the beginning of post-WWII intelligence. She examines
the question of whether the Intelligence Community appears capable of reshaping itself quickly and
effectively enough to cope with 21st century expressions of globalization. Finding a negative answer
to that question, she goes on to address the prospect that Congress may generate the wherewithal to
effect a transformation in intelligence matters by building on the Intelligence Reform Act of 2004.
[email protected], Editor and Director
Center for Strategic Intelligence Research
Library of Congress Control Number 2005924958
ISBN 1-932946-03-9
55646pref.fm7 Page iii Tuesday, July 19, 2005 8:41 AM
CONTENTS
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii
Commentaries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix
Art Grant, Raytheon Company
Russell E. Travers, National CounterTerrorism Center
Review Essay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Failures, Fallacies and Fixes: Posturing Intelligence for the Challenges
of Globalization, by Russell E. Travers
Author’s Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxv
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
The Issue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Methodology and Limitations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Significance of Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2. Fundamental Concepts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
What is Intelligence? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
What is Intelligence Reform? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
What is Oversight?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
What is Globalization?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
3. Past: Historical Perspective: Shapers of the Intelligence Community
During the Cold War (1945-1989). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
National Security Act of 1947 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
The Bipolar Environment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Intelligence Community in the 20th Century. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Cold War Intelligence Reform 1947-1989. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Cold-War Era Reform Efforts in Retrospect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
4. Recent Past: Stalled Reform (1990-2000) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Post-Cold War Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Post-Cold War Intelligence Reform. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
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Post-Cold War Reform in Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Hart-Rudman Commission 1999-2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
5. Present: Post 9/11 Strategies for Reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
9/11 Surprise? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Joint Inquiry Commission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
9/11 Commission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
Joint Inquiry and 9/11 Commission Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Luminaries Respond to 9/11 Committee Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Reform Effects of Presidential Executive Order . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
6. Intelligence in the Post-9/11 World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Globalization and the Intelligence Community . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Information Revolution and the Intelligence Community . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
7. 21st Century: The Rocky Road Ahead . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
A Changed Community Since 9/11? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Post-9/11 Community-Wide Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
The Way Ahead: The Networked Community . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146
Horizontal Integration and the IC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
Congressional Oversight and the IC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
8. Post 9/11 Intelligence Reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Protecting the Turf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Passage of Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 . . . 167
Congressional Oversight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
DNI and Community Relationships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
9. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
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Appendix A — National Security Act of 1947, as amended . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
Appendix B — Cold-War Intelligence Reform 1945-1989 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
Appendix C — Post Cold-War Intelligence Reform 1990-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . 205
Appendix D — Talking Heads Intelligence Reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 219
Appendix E — Post 9/11 Intelligence Reform Reports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227
Appendix F — GAO Human Capital Management Reference Tables . . . . . . 249
Appendix G — Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 . 251
Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259
Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 263
About the Author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 283
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The author gratefully acknowledges the following individuals who made this
research project possible.
The senior leadership of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency who
selected me as the NGA participant in the FY2004 Intelligence Research Fellows
Program at the Center for Strategic Intelligence Research (CSIR) at the Joint Mil-
itary Intelligence College (JMIC), and colleagues in my assigned organization,
NGA/Enterprise directorate (Information Management), who promoted my
application.
Mr. Art Grant, LTC (U.S. Army, Ret.), former House Intelligence Committee
staff member and currently Vice President, National Intelligence, Space and
Geospatial Programs for the Raytheon Company; and Russ Travers, Deputy
Director, National CounterTerrorism Center, who reviewed the manuscript and
provided commentaries.
Dr. Russell Swenson, Director of the CSIR. His editorial comments and direc-
tion have been invaluable to the completion of this project.
The library research staffs at the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National
Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, who provided source assistance. An anonymous
NGA analyst, who provided map reconstruction assistance.
Lastly, the author would like to express a heartfelt appreciation to my family—
Hannah and Joshua Gutjahr—for their continued support and encouragement.
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COMMENTARIES
In her research project, The Intelligence Archipelago: The Community’s Strug-
gle to Reform in the Globalized era, Ms. Melanie Gutjahr has made a significant
contribution to our understanding of how Intelligence is conducted, the future
implications for our national security if changes do not occur, and the role the
recently enacted “Intelligence and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004” will play in
helping to determine the future of U.S. Intelligence. Her diligent research com-
bined with her personal knowledge of the arcane and esoteric world of intelli-
gence provides the basis for her clear analysis and strong conclusions. This is an
excellent body of work, worthy of study by anyone interested in U.S. Intelligence
and interested in making a world class Intelligence Community even more effec-
tive than it is today.
Her description of the history of the U.S. Intelligence Community and efforts
to reform it since World War II provides the necessary context for understanding
the Community’s current organization and the public and private calls for change.
She describes in detail the most significant attempts to reform U.S. Intelligence
and the responses of career Intelligence officers. Her descriptions show recurring
themes throughout the period suggesting that important shortcomings have
repeatedly not been addressed. It is this repetitive resistance to change that makes
her historical narrative both troubling and sad. In many instances, it appears that
career intelligence officers respond to criticisms by asserting that change has
occurred after the critiques were developed and therefore suggestions for reform
apply to a Community that no longer exists. It certainly is true the intelligence
domain is very dynamic and today is different than yesterday, this week is rather
different than last week, and this month is very different than six months ago. But
it is quite clear that the recurring themes demonstrate a failure to acknowledge
problems and to create a future that addresses the fundamental shortcomings of
today, yesterday, last month, last year–and tomorrow. The career intelligence
officer response to arguably the nation’s worst strategic surprise on September
11th appears to be no different than responses in the past: you don’t understand
intelligence, leave us alone, we will fix it on our own. Ms. Gutjahr’s work pro-
vides the essential understanding of this context.
Her analysis of the implications if changes do not occur is very important.
Moreover, her understanding of the effects of “globalization” and the significance
of the digital age are of great value in appreciating the urgency for reform. She
assesses the imperfect “Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of
2004” and the opportunity it gives the nation to “get it right.” Unfortunately, she
does not reveal unbridled optimism about the future of intelligence reform.
Career intelligence officer responses to the new law—and other agents for
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change—so far appear to be no different than they have been in past. Nonethe-
less, as she advises:
Reform must be construed as a Community-wide, never-ending series
of process improvement tasks. Processes and procedures that guarantee
success against our opponent today will be ill-advised as we face
tomorrow’s enemy. The Community must maintain a constant watch
against complacency.
As Ms. Gutjahr notes, much remains to be done and the only people who can
get it done are the career intelligence officers who are never seen publicly and
have devoted their lives to keeping us all safe. The intelligence archipelago must
become a sea without islands.
Art Grant
Vice President, National Intelligence, Space and
Geospatial Programs, the Raytheon Company
Ms. Gutjahr makes a valuable contribution to what has been, thus far, a woe-
fully inadequate discussion of intelligence reform. Despite high profile Commis-
sions, legislative initiatives, and more focus on the Community than has existed
in many years, the quality of the debate remains shallow and confused. Unfortu-
nately, the various external efforts to date have done a far better job of chronicling
intelligence failures (a valuable contribution to be sure) than they have of recom-
mending workable solutions. From all appearances it will fall to practitioners
who actually understand the workings of this very complicated Community to lay
out a way ahead. This book will be a valuable reference to support that effort.
Ms. Gutjahr’s effort is particularly important because the ability of the IC to
successfully deal with globalization is the single most important issue confront-
ing the new DNI. It has implications for the structure, culture, training and very
nature of what we do and how we do it. The topic will dominate any sophisticated
discussion of intelligence reform for at least the next decade and Ms. Gutjahr is
on the leading edge of that discussion.
Russ Travers
Deputy Director, National CounterTerrorism Center
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REVIEW ESSAY
Failures, Fallacies and Fixes: Posturing
Intelligence for the Challenges of Globalization
Russell E. Traversi
Six decades ago, in the aftermath of the Second World War, the United States
struggled to develop a security strategy to confront the Soviet Union. After two
years of debate and indecision, the National Security Act of 1947 established the
intelligence and security architecture that eventually won the Cold War. Modified
over time, that national intelligence apparatus served us well against a monolithic
enemy; a talented workforce, extraordinary technical capabilities, and the sheer
brute force attendant to spending immense sums on intelligence, gave rise to
many successes.
We’re now 15 years past the end of the Cold War. We’ve suffered a series of
intelligence failures, and we’ve seen myriad still-born reform efforts. With the
political imperative generated by the 9/11 Commission, we have “The Intelli-
gence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004” (the Legislation). And
more recently we have the “Report of the Commission on the Intelligence Capa-
bilities of the United States regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction” (WMD
Commission). Are we on the road to “fixing” intelligence, or are we at risk of
making it worse? In truth, either outcome is entirely possible. Intelligence reform
has become such a cottage industry that the debate is confused, and good ideas
are routinely interspersed with those that are ill conceived. Certainly we will need
to fight the inclination to check the “fix intelligence” block and move on to other
issues; if we’re going to get this right, we are in the very opening stages of a pro-
tracted and complicated series of changes to the Intelligence Community. But
how should we be moving forward? Are we focusing on causes or symptoms?
What problems are we trying to correct? And how do we go about fixing them?
We need to take a very clinical approach to these questions as we implement the
Legislation and continue efforts to reform an Intelligence Community that
remains ill equipped for the challenges of the 21st Century.
i Russ Travers works for the Defense Intelligence Agency and is assigned as a Deputy Director of
the National CounterTerrorism Center (NCTC). The views expressed in this article are those of
the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the
United States Government.
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