The Image of the Enemy: Intelligence Analysis of Adversaries since 1945

311 Pages·2015·1.46 MB·English

by  Paul Maddrell

THE IMAGE OF THE ENEMY
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T H E
image
O F T H E
enemy
INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS OF ADVERSARIES SINCE 1945
PAUL MADDRELL
Editor
Georgetown University Press / Washington, DC
(cid:2)2015GeorgetownUniversityPress.Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybe
reproducedorutilizedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicormechanical,including
photocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem,without
permissioninwritingfromthepublisher.
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Theimageoftheenemy:intelligenceanalysisofadversariessince1945/PaulMaddrell,
editor.
pagescm
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-1-62616-239-6pb:alk.paper—ISBN978-1-62616-238-9hc:alk.
paper—ISBN978-1-62616-240-2eb
1.Intelligenceservice—Casestudies. I.Maddrell,Paul,editor.
JF1525.I6I43 2015
327.12—dc23
2015001488
(cid:3)(cid:2) Thisbookisprintedonacid-freepapermeetingtherequirementsoftheAmerican
NationalStandardforPermanenceinPaperforPrintedLibraryMaterials.
16 15 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Firstprinting
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
CoverdesignbyBethSchlenoff
This book is dedicated to the memory
of the late Professor Ernest R. May,
an outstanding historian and pioneer
in the study of intelligence.
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CONTENTS
ListofAbbreviations ix
Introduction:AchievingObjective,Policy-RelevantIntelligence,
byPaulMaddrell 1
1 SovietLeaders,SovietIntelligence,andChangingViewsoftheUnited
States,1965–91,byRaymondL.Garthoff 28
2 TheStasi’sReportingontheFederalRepublicofGermany,
byPaulMaddrell 68
3 ‘‘WeMayNotAlwaysBeRight,butWe’reNeverWrong’’:US
IntelligenceAssessmentsoftheSovietUnion,1972–91,
byBenjaminB.Fischer 93
4 EastGermanyintheSightsoftheWestGermanFederalIntelligence
Service:FourExamplesfromAsManyDecades,byMatthiasUhl 129
5 BritishIntelligence,PIRA,andtheEarlyYearsoftheNorthern
IrelandCrisis:Remembering,Forgetting,andMythologizing,
byEunanO’Halpin 162
6 IsraeliIntelligenceThreatPerceptionsofPalestinianTerrorist
Organizations,1948–2008,byTamirLibelandShlomoShpiro 192
7 PakistaniIntelligenceandIndia,byJulianRichards 219
8 AmericanIntelligenceAssessmentsoftheJihadists,1989–2011,
byMarkStout 248
Conclusion:IntelligenceandPolicy,byPaulMaddrell 279
ListofContributors 283
Index 285
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ABBREVIATIONS
BAFT:BureauofAlcohol,Firearms,andTobacco(UnitedStates)
BND:Bundesnachrichtendienst(WestGermanFederalIntelligenceService)
BNE:BoardofNationalEstimates(UnitedStates)
CBW:chemical/biologicalweapon
CDU/CSU:Christlich-DemokratischeUnion/Christlich-SozialeUnion
(ChristianDemocraticUnion/ChristianSocialUnion,WestGermany)
CGA-OT:coordinatorofgovernmentactivitiesintheOccupiedTerritories
(Israel)
CGS:ChiefoftheGeneralStaff(Pakistan)
CIA:CentralIntelligenceAgency(UnitedStates)
CIMP:CommissionofInquiryonMissingPersons(Pakistan)
Comecon:CouncilforMutualEconomicAssistance
CPGB:CommunistPartyofGreatBritain
CPSU:CommunistPartyoftheSovietUnion
CSCE:ConferenceonSecurityandCooperationinEurope
CTC:CounterterrorismCenter(oftheCIA’sDO)
DCI:directorofCentralIntelligence(thedirectoroftheCIAwhofrom1947
to2005alsopresidedovertheentireUSintelligencecommunityand
coordinateditswork)
DG:Director-General
DGB:DeutscherGewerkschaftsbund(GermanTradeUnionConfederation,
WestGermany)
DI:DirectorateofIntelligence(oftheCIA)
DIA:DefenseIntelligenceAgency(UnitedStates)
DNI:directorofNationalIntelligence(whosince2005haspresidedoverthe
entireUSintelligencecommunityandcoordinateditswork)
DO:DirectorateofOperations(oftheCIA)
EEC:EuropeanEconomicCommunity(alsoknownastheEC:European
Community)
EIG:EgyptianIslamicGroup
EIJ:EgyptianIslamicJihad
ix