The Global Risk Report 2018 PDF
Preview The Global Risk Report 2018
Insight Report The Global Risks Report 2018 13th Edition Strategic Partner of the Report The Global Risks Report 2018, 13th Edition, is published by the World Economic Forum. The information in this report, or on which this report is based, has been obtained from sources that the authors believe to be reliable and accurate. However, it has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from third parties. In addition, the statements in this report may provide current expectations of future events based on certain assumptions and include any statement that does not directly relate to a historical fact or a current fact. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are not exhaustive. The companies contributing to this report operate in a continually changing environment and new risks emerge continually. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these statements. The companies contributing to this report undertake no obligation to publicly revise or update any statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise and they shall in no event be liable for any loss or damage arising in connection with the use of the information in this report. World Economic Forum Geneva World Economic Forum® © 2018 – All rights reserved. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, or otherwise without the prior permission of the World Economic Forum. ISBN: 978-1-944835-15-6 REF: 09012018 The report and an interactive data platform are available at http://wef.ch/risks2018 World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0) 22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0) 22 786 2744 [email protected] www.weforum.org Global Risks Landscape Figure I: The Global Risks Landscape 2018 4.0 Weapons of mass destruction Extreme weather events Natural disasters Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation Water crises Cyberattacks Biodiversity loss and Food crises ecosystem collapse Large-scale 3.5 involuntary migration Spread of infectious Interstate conflict diseases Man-made environmental 3.40 disasters average Critical information Profound social infrastructure breakdown instability Failure of national governance Fiscal crises Terrorist attacks Unemployment or Failure of regional or underemployment global governance Data fraud or theft Asset bubbles in a major economy Failure of critical State collapse or crisis infrastructure Failure of financial Energy price shock mechanism or institution Adverse consequences of Failure of urban planning technological advances t 3.0 c a Illicit trade p m Unmanageable inflation Deflation I 2.5 3.0 4.0 4.5 3.48 plotted average area Likelihood 5.0 Top 10 risks in terms of Top 10 risks in terms of 1.0 5.0 Likelihood Impact Categories 1 Extreme weather events 1 Weapons of mass destruction 2 Natural disasters 2 Extreme weather events Economic 3 Cyberattacks 3 Natural disasters 4 Data fraud or theft 4 Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation Environmental 5 Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation 5 Water crises 6 Large-scale involuntary migration 6 Cyberattacks Geopolitical 7 Man-made environmental disasters 7 Food crises Societal 8 Terrorist attacks 8 Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse 9 Illicit trade 9 Large-scale involuntary migration Technological 10 Asset bubbles in a major economy 10 Spread of infectious diseases Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2017–2018. Note: Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 representing a risk that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur. They also assess the impact on each global risk on a scale of 1 to 5 (1: minimal impact, 2: minor impact, 3: moderate impact, 4: severe impact and 5: catastrophic impact). See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description. Figure II: The Risks-Trends Interconnections Map 2018 Trend Interconnection Map RRiissiinngg cchhrroonniicc ddiisseeaasseess IInnccrreeaassiinngg nnaattiioonnaall sseennttiimmeenntt Changing climate Changing climate CChhaannggiinngg llaannddssccaappee ooff iinntteerrnnaattiioonnaall ggoovveerrnnaannccee Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse DDeeggrraaddiinngg eennvviirroonnmmeenntt Man-made environmental Natural disasters disasters Food crises Extreme weather events Spread of infectious Energy price shock diseases Failure of climate-change SShhiiffttiinngg ppoowweerr Water crises mitigation and adaptation Large-scale involuntary migration Interstate conflict Failure of urban planning Weapons of mass destruction Failure of regional or State collapse or crisis global governance RRiissiinngg uurrbbaanniizzaattiioonn Profound social Failure of national instability governance Failure of critical Terrorist attacks Unmanageable inflation infrastructure Unemployment or underemployment Adverse consequences of Critical information technological advances IInnccrreeaassiinngg ppoollaarriizzaattiioonn infrastructure breakdown societies of societies Cyberattacks Deflation Illicit trade Fiscal crises GGrroowwiinngg mmiiddddllee ccllaassss iinn eemmeerrggiinngg eeccoonnoommiieess Data fraud or theft Asset bubbles in a major economy Failure of financial mechanism or institution RRiissiinngg iinnccoommee aanndd wweeaalltthh ddiissppaarriittyy Rising geographic mobility Rising geographic mobility AAggeeiinngg ppooppuullaattiioonn Rising cyber dependency Rising cyber dependency Risks Trends Economic Geopolitical Technological Risks Risks Risks Number and strength Number and strength Environmental Societal of connections of connections Risks Risks (“weighted degree”) (“weighted degree”) Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2017–2018. Note: Survey respondents were asked to select the three trends that are the most important in shaping global development in the next 10 years. For each of the three trends identified, respondents were asked to select the risks that are most strongly driven by those trends. See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description. FRigiusrek I III:n Thtee Grcloboanl Rniskes cIntteiroconnn Mectiaonps Map 2018 Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse Man-made environmental disasters Food crises Natural disasters Extreme weather events Energy price shock Spread of infectious Failure of climate-change diseases mitigation and adaptation Water crises Large-scale involuntary migration Interstate conflict Failure of urban planning Weapons of mass destruction State collapse or crisis Failure of regional or global governance Profound social instability Terrorist attacks Failure of critical Failure of national infrastructure governance Unmanageable inflation Unemployment or underemployment Adverse consequences of technological advances Critical information Cyberattacks infrastructure breakdown Illicit trade Fiscal crises Deflation Data fraud or theft Asset bubbles in a major economy Failure of financial mechanism or institution Economic Geopolitical Technological Risks Risks Risks Number and strength Environmental Societal of connections Risks Risks (“weighted degree”) Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2017–2018. Note: Survey respondents were asked to identify between three and six pairs of global risks they believe to be most interconnected. See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description. et s e h d t 2018 Extreme weather events Natural disasters Cyberattacks Data fraud or theft Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation 2018 Weapons of mass destruction Extreme weather events Natural disasters Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation Water crises mployment entere e n 20132014201520162017 Severe income Income disparityInterstate conflictLarge-scale Extreme weather disparitywith regionalinvoluntary eventsconsequencesmigration Chronic fiscalExtreme weatherExtreme weatherExtreme weatherLarge-scale eventsimbalanceseventseventsinvoluntary migration Rising greenhouse Unemployment Failure of nationalFailure of climate-Major natural gas emissionsand governancechange mitigation disastersunderemploymentand adaptation Water supplyClimate changeState collapse orInterstate conflict Large-scale crisescrisiswith regional terrorist attacksconsequences Mismanagement Cyber attacks High structuralMajor natural Massive incident of population unemployment orcatastrophes of data fraud/theftageingunderemployment 20132014201520162017 Major systemicFiscal crisesWater crisesFailure of climate-Weapons of mass financial failure change mitigation destructionand adaptation Water supply Climate change Rapid and massiveWeapons of mass Extreme weather crisesspread of destructioneventsinfectious diseases Water crises Weapons of massWater crisesWater crisesChronic fiscaldestructionimbalances Interstate conflictUnemployment Large-scale Major natural Diffusion ofandwith regionalinvoluntary disastersweapons of mass destructionunderemploymentconsequencesmigration Failure of climate- Failure of climate-Severe energy Failure of climate-Critical informationinfrastructurechange mitigation change mitigation price shockchange mitigation breakdownand adaptationand adaptationand adaptation GeopoliticalSocietalTechnological ved with new issues emerging on the 10-year horizon. For example, cyberattacks, income disparity and uorized first as societal risks and then as a trend in the 2015 and 2016 Global Risks Reports, respectively. 2012 Severe income disparity Chronic fiscalimbalances Rising greenhouse gas emissions Cyber attacks Water supply crises 2012 Major systemicfinancial failure Water supply crises Food shortage crises imbalances Extreme volatilityenergy and in agriculture prices Environmental et of global risks have evolme disparity were re-categ The Evolving Risks Landscapes, 2008–2018gure IV: Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood 2008200920102011 Asset price Asset price Asset price Storms and 1stcyclonescollapsecollapsecollapse Breakdown of critical information infrastructureMiddle East Slowing Chinese Slowing Chinese Flooding2ndinstabilityeconomy (<6%)economy (<6%) Failed and failing Chronic diseaseChronic diseaseCorruption3rdstates Breakdown of critical information Oil and gas price Global governance Fiscal crisesBiodiversity lossinfrastructure4thgapsspike Chronic disease, Retrenchment Global governance Climate change 5thdeveloped worldfrom globalization gaps(emerging) Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Impact 2008200920102011 Asset price Asset price Asset price Fiscal crises1stcollapsecollapsecollapse Breakdown of critical information infrastructureRetrenchment Retrenchment Retrenchment Climate change 2ndfrom globalizationfrom globalization from globalization (developed)(developed)(developed) Slowing Chinese Oil and gas Oil price spikesGeopolitical 3rdeconomy (<6%)price spikeconflict Breakdown of critical information Oil and gas Chronic diseaseChronic diseaseAsset price infrastructure4thprice spikecollapse PandemicsFiscal crisesFiscal crisesExtreme energy 5thprice volatility Economic World Economic Forum 2008–2018, Global Risks Reports.Source: Global risks may not be strictly comparable across years, as definitions and the sNote: of global risks in 2012. Some global risks were reclassified: water crises and rising inco Fi et s e h d t e er nt e nt e m y o pl m e n d uy. s, income disparity ans Reports, respectivel kk cs attaal Ri yberGlob e, c16 or exampl15 and 20 F0 ues emerging on the 10-year horizon. cietal risks and then as a trend in the 2 w isss so with ned first a d ze veori e evolcateg ks havere re- sw et of global rime disparity d the sg inco nn obal Risks Reports.e across years, as definitions aclassified: water crises and risi 2008–2018, Glctly comparablal risks were re orum be strie glob World Economic FSource: Global risks may not Note: of global risks in 2012. Som The Global Risks Report 2018 13th Edition Strategic Partners Marsh & McLennan Companies Zurich Insurance Group Academic Advisers National University of Singapore Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, University of Pennsylvania
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