The Future of the Automobile: The Report of MIT's International Automobile Program PDF
Preview The Future of the Automobile: The Report of MIT's International Automobile Program
TheF uturoef t he Automobile TheI nternatiAountaolm obiPlreo gram Co-DirectDoarnsi:e Rlo osa ndA lanA ltshuler NationTaela m Leaders France MicheFlr ybourg Italy PatrizBiioa nchi Japan HideoN akamuraan dY ukihidOkea no Sweden LarsS jostedt UniteKdi ngdomD anieJlo nes UniteSdt ates AlanA ltshulaenrdD anieRlo os WestG ermany MeinolDfi erkes PrograSme cretariat MartiAnn dersoEnx,e cutiOvfef ic(e1r 981-1984) RoberGtr eeneE,x ecutiOvfef ic(e1r 980-1981) MaryM cShaneR,e searAcshs ociate JamesW omack,R esearAcshs ociate RobC oppockE,u ropeaCno ordinator TrisFhl eminAgd,m inistraAtsisvies tant Acknowledgment Thei nternaticoonoarld inatoifto hni psr ograamn dt hep reparatoifot nh is volumew eres upportbeydt heG ermanM arshaFluln do ft heU niteSdt ates andt heL illEyn dowment. TheF uturoef t he Automobile TheR eporotfM IT's InternatAiuotnoamlo bile Prgoram by AlanA ltshuler MartiAnn derson DanieJlo nes DanieRlo os JameWso mack withc ontributbiyo ns HermannA ppel DavidB ayliss GunnaHre dlund MasakazIug uchi KazutosKhois hiro HarrKya tz KarLlu dvigsen MaryM cShane RemyP rud'homme WolfganSgt reeck TheM ITP ress CambridgMea,s sachusetts FirMsItT Prepsasp erbeadcikt i1o9n8,6 © 1984b yt heM assachuseItntsst itouftT ee chnology Allr ighrtess erveNdo, p arotf t hibso okm ay ber eproducienad n yf ormb y anye lec tronoircm echanicmaela ns( includpihnogt ocopyirnegc,o rdionrgi ,n formatsitoonr agea ndr etriewviatlh)o upte rmissiionwn r itifnrgo mt hep ublisher. Thisb ookh asb eens eti nP alatino byT heM IT PresCso mputergrapDheipcasr tment andp rintaendd b ound int heU niteSdt ateosfA merica LibraorfCy o ngreCsast alogiinPn ugb licaDtaitoan Maine ntruyn dert itle: TheF uturoef t hea utomobile. Bibliograpp.h y: Includiensd ex. 1.A utomobiilned ustarnyd t radle..A l tshulAelra,nA .,1 936-I.I M.a ssachuseItnts stituotfTe e chnoloIgIyI.I. n ternatiAountaolm obiPlreo gram. HD9710.A2F8179 84 338.4'762928 4-12269 ISB9N 78-0-262(-h:0ea 1.l0 pk8a.1p -e- 8r9 )7 8-0-262(-p5ba1.l0 pk3:a.8 p -e7r ) Contents Prefavciei 1 TheA utomobilaen dI tsI ndusturnyd erS iege1 2 A Centuroyf T ransformati1o1n s 3 CanA utomobiliEtnyd ure4?7 4 TechnologiOcpaplo rtunitfioerAs d aptati7o7n 5 How Many Cars?1 07 6 TheN aturoef C ompetiti1o2n1 7 The CompetitiBvael anc1e4 5 8 TheF uturSeh apeo ft heW orldA utoI ndustr1y8 1 9 LaborR elatioannsd E mploymenAtd justmen1t9s9 10 Nationisn C ompetitiTohne: T radeD ilemma2 23 11 Walkintgh eT ightropCeh:o iceisn a n Erao f Transformat2i4o7n Contents vi Appendixes A NationRaels earTceha msP articipiantt ihneIg n ternational AutomobiPlreo gra2m6 3 B Participiannt thseI nternatiAountaolm obiPlreo graPmo licy Forums2 67 C Industrial-ReSlyasttieominsnst heU niteSdt atetsh,eU nited Kingdoma,n dW estG ermany2 75 D TheC asef orF reTer ade2 91 Notes3 01 Index3 13 Preface TheI nternatiAountaolm obilPer ogram In1 979i,n t hem idsotf t hes econedn ergsyh ockw,e -likmea ny others-begtaonw ondera boutth ef uturoeft hea utomobile-based systeomf p ersontarla nsportaWteiroein t.rs e sourdceem andssu stain ablep,a rticuliantr hlely i ghotfi tcso mpledteep endenocnep etroleum? Coultdh ee arthe'nsv ironmteonlte reavteer -increaamsoiunngto sfa uto traveWlo?u ldt hew orldc'ist izaecncse tphte s afeatnyd u rban-amenity consequenocfem sa ssa utmoo biliotvye rt hel ongt ermA?s energy pricseosa retdh,e f irosftt hesceo ncerinnsp articusleaerm etdo c ast a shadowo nt hef uturofet hea utomobile. Att hes amet imet,h ew orld econwoamsey n teritnhgew orsetc onomic downtursni ncteh eG reaDte pressiaonndt, h ea ution dustwraysa mong theh ardest-sheictt oIrtss .o on became apparaelntth otuhtgahhte , continusipnrge aodfa utomobilmiigthyt caruesseo uracned e nviron mentaclh allengae msa,j ocro ntractiinao unt op roductwiaosne ven moret roubltiont gh ew orlda'dsv anceidn dustreicaoln omieIsna. d ditiobne,c austeh ee ffecotfts h ed ownturinn a utos alewse ref elitn different dbeyg trheele esa dianugt o-produncaitnigo nwsi,t hs ome countriaeust'oi ndustrfiaelst eraisno gt herssu rgeadh eadt,h ew orld tradisnygs tewma ss howinsge riosutsr ains. Int hissi tuatoifoc nr iswies ,r esolvteodm ounta ne xaminatoifo n thea utomotisvyes tetmh awto uldb eu nusuailnt hreree specFtisr.s t, itw oulid ntegrtahtepe e rspectoiftv heoss weh of ocuosn t hea utomobile asa travmeold ea ndt hosceo ncernweidt hi tpsr oductiTorna.n spor tatioenn,v ironmenatnadlr ,e souracnea lyswtosu ldb ea sketdo c ol laborawtiet hs tudenotfsc orporaotreg anizaatnidof ni nanclea,b or relatiaonndsi ,n ternatitornaadSlee .c ondt,h es tudwyo uldb eg lobal Preface viii ino rientatTihoinr.di ,tt si mef ramweo ulde xtenpda stth ee ndo ft he century. Durin1g9 80w e workewdi thl eadirnegs earicnhs tituitniF ornasn ce, ItalJya,p anS,w edent,h eU niteKdi ngdomt,h eU niteSdt ateasn,dW est Germanyt od eveloap n ationraels eartceha mi ne achc ountr(yT.h e memberasr el istienda ppendAix) Theses evenna tionwsh,i chw e refetro a st heA utoP rogracmo untriaecsc,o unfto rt hree-fouorft hs thew orldm'ost or-vehpircoldeu ctainodnt wo-thirdnse wo-fv ehicle saleIsn.a ddititohne,ya ret heh omec ountroifea sl tlh et ransnational automobimlaen ufacturers. Ouri ntewnats t oc onducat t rulcyo mprehenseixvaem inatfiroonm, manyp erspectainvdew si tha viewt ot hel ong-tefrumt uroef,t he social conseqoufte hneca eust omobialsae c onsumeprr oduacntd o n thea uto induassat creyn tral eloeftm heenw to rledc onomyT.o fully achieovuer g oalw,e felittw ase ssenttioua nld ersttahnedp erspectives oft hed ecisimoank erwsh o shapteh ed estionfyt hea utomobialned thea ution dustWrey t.h erefsoorlei cittheetd h oughotfss e nicoorm pany executiuvneiso,ln e adearnsd, governomfefnitc cioanlcse rnweidt hth e healtohft hea utoi ndustirnty h es eveAnu toP rogracmo untriWees . alssoo ughotu tt hev iewosf l eadeirnsi ndustrcileoss eilnyv olvweidt h thea utos ectosru,c ha se nergayn df inancaen,dt hosweh o deawli th thes ideef fecotfas u tou sei,n cludienngv ironmentagloivsetrsn,m ent regulataonrdst ,r ansportation Tphleasnienn edrisv.i dwuearlesa sked toj oitnh er eseartceha misn a serioefsf orumhse lda nnualolvye ra three-ypeearri oidnt heU niteSdt ateJsa,p ana,n dE uropTeh.o sweh o acceptoeudri nvitattiopo anr ticiapraelt ies tienda ppendBi.x Thef orumpsr ovidaem de chanifsomtr h esien dividtuoat laslf kr ankly abouitm portaanutt o-reliastseudae nsd t oc ommenotn A utoP rogram researfcihn dinWges s.h oulmda kec leatrh ata,l thoutghhef orupma r ticipahnatvset akegnr eapta intso c ritidcriazfeot fst hivso lumef,o r whiche fforwtes a red eeplgyr ateftuhle,ri esn os uggesttihoantt h ey agrewei tho re ndorsoeu rf indings. TheM assachusIentsttsi toufTt eec hnolojgoyi,n tly tthhreoC uegnht er forT ransportaSttiuodni aensd t heC entefro rI nternatiSotnuadli es, serveads h eadquartfeorrts h ec oordinatoift ohne o veraplrlo gram. (Thidso esn otm ean,o fc oursteh,a MtI T asa n entietnyd orstehse findinogfts h ep rograomr o ft hirse porAts.p )r ogracmo -direcwteo rs workedi ntensivdeulryi ntgh ep rogrami'nsi tyieaalr t od evelotph e conceplti,nu ep f undinagn,di denttiefayml eadeirnts h eA utoP rogram countriIenss .u bsequeyneta rDsa nieRlo osa dministetrheed inter- Preface ix nationparlo grapml,a nnetdh ea nnuaflo rumasn,d s upervitsheepd r o gram'rse searaccht iviitnit ehsea reaosf a utomobile tecahnndo logy useA.l anA ltshulteoro kr esponsibfiolrti hteyo verailnlt egraotfi on thep rogramr'ess earaccht iviatnides su pervipsreodg rarme searicnh thea reaosf i ndustarnya lysainsdp ublipco licy. Thea mbitionuast uraen dt hei nternatfioocnuaoslft heA utoP rogram requirtehdec ooperatainodnc ommitmenotfm anyi nstitutainodn s individiunas lesv ecno untriWees w.i shi np articutloaa crk nowledge thed edicateefdf orotvse,ra four-yepaerr ioodf,t het eaml eaders: PatrizBiioa nchIit,a lMye;i nolDfi erkeWse,s tG ermanyM;i cheFlr y bourgF,r ancDea;n ieJlo nesU,n iteKdi ngdomH;i deoN akamuraan d YukihiOdkea noJ,a pana;n dL arsS josteSdwte,d enO.t hermsa king importacnotn tributtioto hneas d ministroaftt ihoepn r ograwme reR ob Coppocokf t heS cienCceen teirn B erliwnh,o coordinamtaendy o f thep rogramE'usr opeaacnt iviatnideR so,b erWth itfowrhdo,o rganized AutoP rograrme searactPh u rduUen iversity. A researecfhf oorftt h imsa gnitude reaql uairrgaeems o unotf f inancial supporotv era numbero fy earsI.na ddititoont hes upporfto rt he internaticoonoarld inatoifto hne p rograpmr ovidbeyd theG erman MarshaFluln do ft heU niteSdt ateasn dt heL illEyn dowmente,a ch nationraels eartceha mo btainfeudn dfsr omp ubliacn dp rivaotreg a nizatiionni st hso mec ountrWye. t akteh iosp portunoint bye haloff ourc olleagtuoge rsa tefully acktnhoemw alneydf gien anccioanlt ributors who madet hep rograpmo ssible. TheP resenVto lume Att hec onclusoifof no uyre arosf i ntensrievsee aricnhv olviinngn u merablceo nsultatainodcn osm municatiaomnosn ga cademics, govern mento fficials, companya nedxu enciuoltnei avdeeswr,es b,e lietvhea t theI nternatAiuotnoamlo biPlreo grahma sa ccomplisthheemd o stc om prehensaisvsee ssmeevnetcr o nductoefda majowro rlidn dustarnyd itpsr oducTth.i vso lumies a repoorntt hes tatoeft hea utomobainlde thea utoi ndustarnyd t heifru turper ospecbtass eodn thef indinogfs thep rograImt.i sn ota consensvuise wo ft hospea rticipiantt ihneg progranmo,r i si ta massivceo mpilatoifof na ctasn df igurReast.h er, iti sa collaborative intaenrdap nraeltyasbtiyits oh nep rinciapuatlh ors whicaht tempttous n dersttahnedp robleimnsh ereinnet v er-expanding automobiltihtewy a,y si nw hicht hea utoi ndustmrayy e volvient he futuraen,d t hef uturpeo litical eocfot nhoeam uyt omotiwvoer ld. Preface x Asi na nyw orko fc ollaboraat wioornda, b oustp ecicfoinct ributions isn ecessaArlya.nA ltshulJearm,eW so macka,n dD anieRlo osp rovided theo verall diarnedct thieeo dni torcioaolr dinattoif oonr gaen i ntegrated manuscrfirpotm a diversoiftp ya rtJsa.m eWso mackp reparcehda pter I and,w ithA lanA ltshulceor-,a uthocrheadp te2r sa nd1 1.R emy Prud'hommseu pplitehdem ateriianlc hapt2e ro n thef uturoeft he autoi ndustirnyt hel esdse velopceodu ntriaensdD, a nieJlo necso n tributkeedyc oncepatbso utth ep roceosfsi ndustervyo lutiCohna.p ter 3 wasw rittbeynJ amesW omack,d rawinogn materiparlesp arbeyd MaryM cShanien h err olaes c oordinaotfto hrep rograma'ust omobile uses tudiCehsa.p te4r w asc o-authobryeJ da meWso macka ndD aniel Jonesw,i thc ontributfiroonmHs e rmanA ppelM,a sakazIug uchain,d LarsS josteAdlta.nA ltshuwlerro tceh apt5e,rd rawinogn materials, inclugd itnhep rogramd'esm andm odelp,r eparbeyd D avidB ayliss. JamesW omack,M artiAnn dersoann,d D anieJlo newse rej ointrley sponsifbolcreh apte6r,7s, a nd8 .C hapte9rw asc o-authobryeH da rry Katazn dW olfgaSntg reewcikt,ch o ntributfiroonmKs a zutosKhois hiro. Chapte1r0 w asp reparbeydA lanA ltshulAeprp.e ndiCx i st hew ork ofH arrKya tzW,o lfganSgt reecDka,v iMda rsdeann,d S tepheWno od. GunnaHre dluncdo ntribuAtpepde ndiDx. K arLlu dvigseedni tetdh e manuscrifpotr s tylistic consainsdtc eonnctyi nuiHtoyw.e vert,h ese individautatlr ibutmiuosntns o to bscutrhee f actth atth ev olumhea s beena trulcyo llaboraetfifvoterh tr oughout. OtherA utoP rograRme search Althougthh ivso lumies t hem ostc omprehenspiuvbel icatuinodne r thea egiosf t heI nternatiAountaolm obiPlreo graimt,r epreseonntlsy a tinfyr actoifot nh ep rogramr'ess earfcihn dinTghse.w orkinpga pers thaptr ovidmeods to ft hee videnfcoert hei nterpretaptrieosnesn ted int hivso lumaer ea vailafbrloem t heM IT Centefro rT ransportation StudieCsa,m bridgMea,s sachuse0t2t1s3 9I.n a dditisoenv,e rcaolm plementavroyl umeasr ei np reparatbiyoi nn dividual respeaarrchers ticipaitnit nhgep rograTmh.e sceo vearw ider angoef t opicisn,c luding tradpeo licayu,t omotitveec hnoloaguyt,o mobiulseel ,a borre lations, andt hef utuorfet hea utomobainldet hea ution dustirnty h ed eveloping countries. Att heo utsoeftt heA utoP rograwme believtehda tth ew orlfda ced a growinnge edf orf arseeaisnsge ssmeonftk se yi ndustrainedts h eir sociraalm ificatWieo bnesl.i evfeudr,t htehra,tt h esaes sessmecnotusl d
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