The Frontiers of Applied Demography PDF
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Applied Demography Series 9 David A. Swanson Editor The Frontiers of Applied Demography Applied Demography Series Volume 9 Series Editor David A. Swanson The field of applied demography is largely driven by the quest for the knowledge required by clients, both in public and private sectors, to make good decisions withintimeandcostsconstraints.Thebookseries,AppliedDemography,providesa forumforillustratinganddiscussingtheuseofdemographicmethods,concepts,and perspectivesinawiderangeofsettings—business,government,education,law,and public policy—as well as the influence of these settings on demographic methods, concepts,andperspectives.Thebookswithintheseriescanbeusedasresourcesfor practitionersandasmaterialsservingascasestudiesforpedagogicaluses. Moreinformationaboutthisseriesathttp://www.springer.com/series/8838 David A. Swanson Editor The Frontiers of Applied Demography Editor DavidA.Swanson DepartmentofSociology UniversityofCaliforniaRiverside Riverside,CA,USA ISSN2352-376X ISSN2352-3778 (electronic) AppliedDemographySeries ISBN978-3-319-43327-1 ISBN978-3-319-43329-5 (eBook) DOI10.1007/978-3-319-43329-5 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016957789 ©SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2017 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexempt fromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthis book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained hereinorforanyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade. Printedonacid-freepaper ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbySpringerNature TheregisteredcompanyisSpringerInternationalPublishingAGSwitzerland Foreword Applieddemographyencompassesadiversesetofendeavorsthatdrawondemog- raphers’ specialized knowledge, technical skills, and extensive familiarity with relevant data sources. These proficiencies have enabled demographers to address anever-widerarrayofbusinessandpublicsectorconcerns.The23chaptersahead demonstrate the expanding scope and advancing frontiers of endeavor by applied demographersworldwide. Applieddemographyisdrivenbypracticalproblems;itisnotatheory-directed body of knowledge. The wide-ranging concerns addressed in the chapters ahead illustrate the field’s scope and emphases. Prominent among those emphases are shaping decisions attuned to a stubbornly uncertain future that resists precise prediction, strengthening the understanding of demographic influences on con- sumerbehaviorandservicedemands,andevaluatingthequalityofthedataapplied demographersroutinelyusesoastobetterunderstandandskirttheirlimitations. “Frontiers”canbethoughtofasouterlimitsinafieldofendeavor,fromwhich opportunities yet to be realized can be perceived. The varied contributions ahead definethreesuchfrontiers:(1)systematicevaluationsofhowthestatusquoevolves, (2)alternativeposturesforaccommodatingthefuture,and(3)emergingdataneeds presentedbythenewproblemsapplieddemographersarenowaddressing. This wide-ranging collection of applications will enjoy a broad and varied readership extending well beyond demographers themselves. It will include ana- lysts gauging the size and makeup of consumer markets at different geographic scalesorstagesofevolution,municipalplannersresponsiblefordesigningpolicies to meet local service demands, analysts framing strategic business decisions with reference to future demographic contexts, economic forecasters concerned with alternative future scenarios of how the demographic status quo might unfold, and government officials heading agencies that collect public data through a periodic nationalcensusorongoingsurveys. Inwhatfollows,Iofferanoverviewofhowthesechaptersalignwiththeabove concerns,tohelpdirectreaderstothosechapterslikelytobeofgreatestinterest. v vi Foreword Measuring the Present The production of ever-better “official” current estimates of population size and composition addresses the ongoing needs of national, regional, and local govern- ments. Those estimates figure planning decisions and various formulas for trans- ferringresourcesfromhigherlevelsofgovernmenttolowerones. Traditional censuses are among the largest and costliest statistical activities undertaken by governments and national statistics offices. Chapter 14 examines the prospects for future cost savings as Canada and the United States incorporate technologicaladvancementsintocensusmethodologies. In the past decade, all 50 US states and outlying territories have developed longitudinaladministrativerecordsdatabases,whichareessentiallypartialpopula- tionregisters.Chapter11describestheemergenceoftheseStateLongitudinalData Systemsandprovidesaroadmapforfutureresearchpossibilities. Chapter13explorestheutilityoflifetimeUSmigrationmeasures,whichlinkan individual’s current place of residence with place of birth. These two building blocks show a basic picture: where a person began the musical game of life and wherethatpersonnowresides,oncethemusichasstopped.Theanalysisoflifetime migrationis a useful complementtomore detailed, shorter-termmeasures. It pro- vides a long-term perspective on how each state acquired its distinctive mix of populationfromdifferentgeographicorigins.Theseinsightstoastate’spopulation historycanprovideusefulinputintopolicyandprogramplanning. Chapter 20 introduces a new approach to analyzing population change over small areas. It makes use of a combined polygon overlay and cell smoothing procedure to derive estimates of population counts for a 1km grid to facilitate assessmentofchange throughtime.Populationsurfacesderivedinthisway make themostoftheavailableinformation,accordingtotheauthor,andprovideasound basisfromwhichtoexplorelonger-termchangeoververysmallareas. Chapter 9 examines the meaning of reported race among different Hispanic groups. It highlights the underlying complexity of Americans’ racial and ethnic self-identificationandadvancestheunderstandingoftheresponsesthatcensusand survey questions elicit from persons of Hispanic origin. The US Census Bureau collectsinformationconcerningraceandHispanicoriginusingtwoseparateques- tions.Hispanicsmayreportanyraceorcombinationofraces.Mostselectaspecific race,butsomeHispanicsreportanationality,agroup,orageneralcategoryastheir “race.” Envisioning and Anticipating the Future No view of the future can be anything more than an “informed guess.” Many non-demographers seek precisely that: an informed guess about how the demo- graphic status quo may evolve. Formulating alternative scenarios of the future is Foreword vii one way to incorporate key demographic contingencies shaping the future, and applieddemographersarewellsituatedtoofferobjectiveinputs. Chapter 1 illustrates these possibilities. Both China and India have undergone substantial consumer market expansion. Each, however, is following a distinctive demographic pathway forward into the future. This chapter examines the macro demographic trends behind those pathways and spots demographic contingencies on the horizon. Its insights offer a useful point of departure for envisioning alternativescenariosofhowproductivity,householdpurchasingpower,anddiscre- tionaryspendingmayripeninotherdevelopingcountrycontexts. PopulationaginginEnglandiscoveredinChap.2.Here,theauthorsdrilldown intothecomponentsthatarepresumedtocauseburdensonhealth-caresystemsdue toanagingpopulation.Itdoesthisbyemployingmicro-simulationtoexaminethe healthimpactsoftotalpopulationchange,populationaging,changingethnicmixof thepopulation,andtrendsintheage-specificincidenceofdisease.Theresults are thenusedtoprojectthefuturewithimplicationsnotonlyforEnglandasawholebut alsoforlocalareas. Alternative scenarios are no less relevant for understanding demographic con- tingenciesatstateandlocallevels.Applieddemographersoftenarecalleduponto estimatehowaproposedchangetopublicpolicywouldaffectfuturedemandfora particularbenefitorservice.Chapter3illustratesthisproblemviaacasestudyofa long-standing program to assist military veterans and their dependents to obtain college degrees. The authors evaluated alternative proposals for modifying eligi- bility requirements based on length of military service. Their analysis illustrates howalternativescenarioshelptouncoverdisparateimpactsimposedbyparticular proposals. Chapter 16 offers a further illustration of how scenarios serve planners’ needs. Integrated population, housing, and jobs forecasts involve describing not a single futurebutavarietyofscenarios,toreflectboththeuncertaintyaboutthedirectionof recenttrendsandtheimpactofplanners’andpoliticians’consciousintenttoaltera trend.Theapproachdescribedhereusesstandarddemographicforecastingmethods toforesee the local demandfor housing andemploymentembodied inthe current population’s growth and age structure. It then calculates the impact on that popu- lationofalternativeplansforsupplyofhousingoremployment. Population projection is narrowlyconstrued as the science of dissecting demo- graphicchangeintoitsconstituentprocessesandastheartofmaking informative assumptions about the future course of those processes. Projections become fore- casts only intheeye ofthebeholder,who adoptstheir assumptionsasbeingmost probable. Several chapters illustrate the central role of population projections in guiding decision-making and how applied demographers are advancing both the scienceandtheartofprojection. Projections of future population play an important role in supporting planning forthefutureprovisionofservicesandinfrastructure,forbudgetaryallocation,and for staffing publicly provided services. Chapter 5 offers a particular illustration: viii Foreword anticipatingthefuturedemandforAustralia’scriminalcourtservicesandfacilities andthefutureneedforrelatedstaff,suchasjudgesandmagistrates.Crimeratesin Australia differ widely between gender, age, and geographic area. The author derives court appearance rates by age, sex, and local area based on projected changes in the size, composition and geographical distribution of the population, andthevolumeandgeospatialdimensionsofcrime-relatedcourtserviceprovision. Several chapters illustrate ongoing advances in evaluating the accuracy of population projections. Chapter 7 reports an effort to improve the accuracy of estimates and forecasts of the very elderly population of Australia—persons aged 85+.Itdevelopsprobabilisticforecaststo2051bysexandsingleyearsofageupto age 110+ using extinct cohort and survivor ratio methods. Chapter 15 describes a detailed evaluation of Japan’s official prefectural and municipal projections. Japan’s aging and declining population poses future concerns about the repercus- sionsofashrinkingworking-agepopulationandanincreaseintheelderlypopula- tion. The authors identify factors associated with the accuracy of prefectural and municipal population projections based on a multivariate regression analysis. Chapter 21 undertakes an evaluation of the geographically weighted regression (GWR)methodtoestimaterelationshipsbetweenpopulationchangeandavariety of driving factors and consider possible spatial variations of the relationships for small-areapopulationforecastingusing1990–2010dataattheminorcivildivision level in Wisconsin, USA. The results indicate that the GWR method provides an elegant estimation of the relationships between population change and its driving factors, but it underperforms traditional extrapolation projections. Chapter 23 reports a test of the accuracy of the Hamilton-Perry method for forecasting US state populations by age. This method’s minimal data input requirements and its capability to produce age and other characteristics in a forecast are attractive features for use at state and county levels of geography. Chapter 22 proposes a newmethodforsmall-areaestimationandexaminesitsefficacyandapplicabilityto long-termpopulationprojection. Responsibility for preparing demographic projections for local government areas often rests with local government authorities. Australia offers a useful model forsystematizing dataassemblyforpreparinglocalpopulation projections, as detailed in Chap. 17. The author describes how local governments assemble basic demographic information on dwellings and population, supplemented by propertytaxandpropertydevelopmentdatabases,GoogleStreetView,andregular aerial view updates to validate demographic forecasts. Chapter 18 identifies and addressesthefurtherissuesapplieddemographersconfrontwhenforecastingindi- vidual ethnic groups within the populations. The authors incorporate the ethnicity dimensionintoprojectionmodelsforlocalauthoritiesintheUnitedKingdom.They presentausefulchecklistofdesigndecisionsthatarisewhenbuildingaprojection modelforsubnationalpopulationsclassifiedbyethnicity. Foreword ix Accommodating the Future In the final analysis, forecasting rests on the faculty of human judgment, and it requires that the future be thought about systematically—and with imagination. Several chapters illustrate the specialized roles applied demographers play in formulatingresponsestoforthcomingchange. Chapter 4 identifies the causes of fire injuries and risk factors and potential preventativemeasures.Chapter6isacasestudyofasmallislandcommunitythat neededtomodernizeitsoutdatedfacilitydedicatedtoprovidingassistedlivingand skilled nursing care to local elderly residents. It illustrates how applied demogra- phers can inform important public choices by drawing attention to the long-range implicationsofdemographicchange.Thestudydrawsuponpubliclyavailabledata andstandarddemographicaccountingtoshowwhatthefutureholdsandthetrade- offsitmightimpose. Chapter12appliesnewlydevisedmeasuresofphysicalaccesstoprimaryhealth care to reveal the hidden barriers to US health care. The question it addresses is: Can an individual with health insurance obtain an appointment with a primary health-carepractice?Thestudyshowsthatsimplyhavinghealthinsurancedoesnot equate to access to primary care. It further suggests that barriers to access to primary care (as measured here) actually are lower in rural places than in metro- politan places. It appears that lower operating costs in rural areas, plus smaller patient populations, may provide the financial incentives for physicians to accept Medicaidpatients. Evaluating Data Quality Dataareattheheartofapplieddemography,whichiswhyitspractitionersdevote considerable effort to understanding the limits imposed by the data they use. Chapter 8 pursues a puzzling anomaly in historical US Census data: errors in the coverageofBlackmalecohortssincethelate1930s.Here,theUSCensusBureau analystsexplorethepotentialcausesofthiscoverageerroranditsconsequencesfor theBureau’scurrentpopulationestimates.Chapter10addressesknownlimitations in the Puerto Rico Community Survey (PRCS) due to the questionable quality of the base population and household estimate controls for Puerto Rico. The authors explore ways to work around these limitations and propose ways to incorporate PRCS data in future estimates despite its known biases. Chapter 19 reports on Australia’s efforts to use information from its census post-enumeration survey to correct subsequent population estimates. Its results point toward ways to improve thequalityofAustralia’spopulationestimatesfromthe2016censusandbeyond. RAND PeterA.Morrison Nantucket,MA USA e-mail:[email protected]
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