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The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html ee us i s are trd. Plea ke eaert ge bry ins The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Paall s. ent ed esetting filbeen acci Evidence al typhave ginay orim he ors m terr Committee on DNA Forensic Science: An Update k, not froographic CommissionN oant iDonNaAl R Feosreeanrscihc CSociuenncciel: An Update op oy er bme t p ao ps original ed, and he ain m tret oe ated frnnot b ea es crer, c L filwev Mo Xh m g, ed fromattin en recomposg-specific forn. eno ation of the original work has bding styles, and other typesettiauthoritative version for attributi epresentaks, hean as the digital rord breblicatio PDF file: This new nal; line lengths, wnt version of this pu NATIWOaNsAhiLng AtoCnA, DD.ECM. 1Y9 9P6RESS About this to the origiuse the pri Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html ee us ii s are trd. Plea eakerte National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 ge bry ins NbeOrsT aIrCeE d:r Tawhen pfrroomjec tth teh acto uisn tchiles soufb tjheec tN oaf ttihoinsa rle Apocratd wemasy aopfp Srocvieendc besy, tthhee GNoavtieornnailn gA cBaodaermd yo fo tfh Ee nNgaintieoenrainl gR, easneda rtchhe CInosutintcuitle, owfh Moseed miceinme-. Paall The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. s. ent In preparing its report, the committee invited people with different perspectives to present their views. Such invitation does not imply ed esetting filbeen acci seinsdtionrTTgshh eoiimfss emrsnetuept mdooyrfbt etbhhryaso stsoh ebfe ev tNehieneaw trNieso.avntiiaeolw nReaedl s Abeyacra acd heg mrCoyou upon foc Stihlc'esi reV nthicraetnus, a ttlhh Cee oaNmuatmhtiooirsnssa iaol cnAc oocarndd DienmNg yAto o Fpf orEornecngesidniucer eSersci niaegpn,pc areon: vdAe tdnh ebU yIpn das atRitteue ptweo arostf RsMpeovendiesiowcir neCedo. bmym thitetee con- ginal typay have tnNHueeatceatei loosthsnf a,aJ ralui nlIsyndti s crtteehitp,eu rO teDesf efeoipncfa teJ r tutohmsfet e iJocnufetsf, ti oictcfhi eaeE l Pn Spertooarsgtgeiyrt aiJ o(muGnss tro,ia cfUne tt .h ISNne. ,soU tD.i StDeu ptDEea-,erF pttmhGaere0 tnNm2t-a e9otn4ifot E JnouRafs l6Jt i1Suc7cset8i.ie 2cPne)oc.. eiSn Futspo pouofn rdvtaeietdiw oun in nd( Gethrr iaAsn dwt oNacroud.m #De 9Mn3t S-aI-rJ9e-4 Ct1hX5o-4s0e70 4o0)f8, t tfhhreeo maNu atththioeo rnNsa aal tnIindos ndtaiotlu nItneosstt io-f he oriors m LThiber eavrayl uoaf tCioonn ogfr efsosr eCnasitca lDogNinAg -eivni-dPeunbclei c/a Ctioomn mDaitttaee on DNA Forensic Science: an Update, Commission on DNA Forensic Science: an m terr Update, National Research Council. k, not froographic pIISn. cBclmNud. 0es-3 b0i9b-li0o5g3r9a5p-h1ical references and index. op er bome ty 1N.a Ftioorneanls Rice gseeanrecthic sC. oIu. nNcaitli (oUna.Sl .R).e Cseoamrcmh iCssoiounn coinl (DUN.SA.) .T Ceochmnmoliottgeye ionn FDoNreAns Tice cShcnieonloceg:y a inn UFpodreantes.ic Science: an Update. II. p ao RA1057.5.E94 1996 ps original ed, and CProinptye6rd1ig 4ihn`t. 1 t1h—9e9 dU6c n2bi0yte 9tdh6 eS-2 tNa5t3aet6si4o onfa Al Amceardiceamy of Sciences. All rights reserved. he ain First Printing, December 1996 m tret Second Printing, August 1998 oe ated frnnot b ea es crer, c L filwev Mo Xh m g, ed fromattin en recomposg-specific forn. eno ation of the original work has bding styles, and other typesettiauthoritative version for attributi epresentaks, hean as the digital rord breblicatio e: This new e lengths, won of this pu PDF filnal; linnt versi About this to the origiuse the pri Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html ee us iii s are trd. Plea ke eaert ge bry ins Committee on DNA Forensic Science: An Update Paall s. ent JAMES F. CROW, Chair, University of Wisconsin, Madison ed esetting filbeen acci MSDHHAAAAIVRGRIGD IH A S.HR .K .DE AKTIAZA AAMY.Z EOBI,AN EARNDrGi,,z UUEonRnnaii,vv SBeetrrrassotiieottyy kU looynffni IPv lLeelirannswnoits iyySs, lc avChta ooCnolilhale,i,g c BPear hgooioflo/ akALdlaemywlnpe,,hr NiTicaeeamwn p BYeaorr Fkoundation al typhave ARNO G. MOTULSKY, University of Washington, Seattle ginay THOMAS A. NAGYLAKI, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois orim MASATOSHI NEI, Pennsylvania State University, University Park he ors GEORGE F. SENSABAUGH, University of California, Berkeley m terr DAVID O. SIEGMUND, Stanford University, Stanford, California ok, not fropographic SATdEvPisHoErN M. STIGLER, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois oy er bme t VICTOR A. McKUSICK, The Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, Maryland p ao ps original ed, and NRC Staff he ain ERIC A. FISCHER, Study Director m tret LEE R. PAULSON, Senior Staff Officer oe MIRON L. STRAF, Senior Staff Officer ated frnnot b JPOAHUNL ERT. TTEU CAK. AEDR,A SMenSi,o Sr eSntiaofrf POrfofjieccetr Assistant ea es crer, c NORMAN GROSSBLATT, Editor L filwev Mo Xh m g, ed fromattin en recomposg-specific forn. eno ation of the original work has bding styles, and other typesettiauthoritative version for attributi epresentaks, hean as the digital rord breblicatio e: This new e lengths, won of this pu PDF filnal; linnt versi About this to the origiuse the pri Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html ee us iv s are trd. Plea ke eaert ge bry ins Commission on DNA Forensic Science: An Update Paall s. ent THOMAS D. POLLARD, Chair, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland ed esetting filbeen acci PMBEUITCREHTRAO JEN.L BS TIICN. KCGLEEELRG,, UPGnr,i inUvceneritsvoietnyr s Uoitfny iC voaeflr iCsfioatyrlin,f iPoarr,n iBniace,er tRkoeinvle,e yNrseidwe Jersey al typhave NRC Staff ginay orim PAUL GILMAN, Executive Director he ors m terr k, not froographic op oy er bme t p ao ps original ed, and he ain m tret oe ated frnnot b ea es crer, c L filwev Mo Xh m g, ed fromattin en recomposg-specific forn. eno ation of the original work has bding styles, and other typesettiauthoritative version for attributi epresentaks, hean as the digital rord breblicatio e: This new e lengths, won of this pu PDF filnal; linnt versi About this to the origiuse the pri Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html ee us PREFACE v s are trd. Plea ke eaert ge bry ins Preface Paall s. ent ed esetting filbeen acci al typhave DNA analysis promises to be the most important tool for human identification since Francis Galton developed the use of originmay fingerprints for that purpose. We can confidently predict that, in the not-distant future, persons as closely related as brothers m the errors warirlilv bede , raonudti ntheely w dinisdtisn ogfu cisohnetdro, vaenrds yD hNaAve pnrootf ibleese nw sitlill lbeed .a Hs efunlcley tahcics erpetpeodr ta.s fingerprints now are. But that time has not yet k, not froographic wthaast dtToohouekb tt,en cobh onathciq cauoseu tnfoot rtoh Dfe NpreoApsr spoibrdoluefci lisibnuigbli dtfyiiv rasistn idaop nrpe eoliafa rbetihdlei ta ybp oooufp tut hl1ae0t i moyneea.t hrDso daesgs poai,nt ead n tadhs e tth ope o tshtueebn ajteipacplt r oipspo rswitaieltlre ynooefsu stn hgoe.f Istneimc thhpnelii qsetuaircel, y c tadhlaecyruesl a twthioeenrrees op serious reservations about its actual use. oy per bme t new Itne c1h9n8iq9u, et.h eT hNea tcioonmaml Ritteesee airscshu eCdo uitns crile pfoorrtm iend 1th9e9 2C. oTmhme itrteepeo rotn rDesNolAve Td eac hnnuomlobgeyr ino fF qoureenstsiiocn Ss,c iaenndc es etov esrtauld yo ft hiitss ao original ped, and s r"faeinvctooemrraimmble ecn etdoial ittnhiogen pdsr eiwfnecenirpdela ewn.t"i) d aae nlpydr o aicndeoddepuptreeedn .id nNetenentv doeefrd tht hteoel e prsarsoc, ivaiitld geoe raingnei rneasstt eiodmf acthtoeen otDrfo Nav eAprr.so yTf ihaleen dfpr reciqnriuctieicpnilcsemy w .t haMas tu circsih thi ciogifzh etldhy a act soc nbeseneitrnevgrae tadivr boein t(r iat.hery.e, he ain and unnecessarily conservative, as not taking population genetic theory into account, and as being subject to misuse. m tret In April 1993, Judge William Sessions, then the Director of the FBI, requested oe ated frnnot b ea es crer, c L filwev Mo Xh m g, ed fromattin en recomposg-specific forn. eno ation of the original work has bding styles, and other typesettiauthoritative version for attributi epresentaks, hean as the digital rord breblicatio e: This new e lengths, won of this pu PDF filnal; linnt versi About this to the origiuse the pri Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html ee us PREFACE vi s are trd. Plea eakerte that the NRC do a follow-up study to resolve the controversy and to answer other questions that recent empirical work ge bry ins panerdm ointt eAd usguucsht a3 0s,t u1d9y9 3to, aI dwdaress sa.s kAefdte tro a cmhaeier tiint.g Aofft ecro nas uyletaarn'sts dienl aJyu,n me a1i9n9ly3 , dtuhee NtoR fCun ddeincigd eudn ctoer tfaoirnmti eas ,n tehwe ccoommmmiitttteeee Paall members were named in August 1994, and the first meeting was held in September of that year. Subsequent meetings were s. ent held in November and in January and March of 1995. The main recommendations were agreed on and several revisions of a ed esetting filbeen acci rthepe oNrItRn w Cthe Rere er pepporeortpr tRa,r eaevfdti eebrwe at nwC oeinemtnrm oMditutaecretci,ho a nan naddn p drJ iubnnatiecn.k ggT.rhoeu nredm maaintedreiar lo (fC thhaep tteimrse 1 h aansd b 2e)e,n w sep edneta li nw eitdhi ttihneg ,q ureevsitsioinng o, fr eevrrioewrsi ning tbhye al typhave plaobpourlaattoiroyn asnudb dchivaiisni oonf caunsdt opdryo paonsde reccaolcmumlateinndg pprroocceedduurreess toth mati ntiamkeiz eit thinetmo (aCchcoaputnetr (3C).h aWptee rth 4en). aWdder eassls oth ec oqnuseisdteior nt hoef ginay statistical interpretation of DNA evidence, including statistical problems associated with the use of existing databases orim (Chapter 5). Finally, we include a review of DNA in the courts since the 1992 report (Chapter 6). he ors Specific recommendations are numbered and given at the ends of the chapters and are reproduced in the Executive m terr Summary and Overview. Other statements in the text are not intended to have the force of formal recommendations, although k, not froographic wthea td aoTr ehm insao krtee d paios ncrtuu msiss betdehr ea orrefe ssnuueglittg hoeesfr t imeonnadsno.y rW seexed c anhgoarrne greee jwse cibtthye d sp.ohmoen es,t aftaexm, eanntds oef- mthaei l1 a9m92o nregp tohret ainndd idviisdaugarle ec owmitmh iotttehee rms.e Smtabteerms eanntds op er bome ty EGrriocs sFbilsactht.e rD. uWrien gw tehree cgoruerastely o af stshiest esdtu dthyr owueg hreocueti vtheed pardovjieccet bbyy cLoenev ePrasualtsioonn aanndd cPoarurleestpteo nAddeanmces .f rTohme medaintoyr pweoaps lNe. oSrmomane p paso of these are listed at the end of the report, but the list is far from complete. We are indebted to all. We particularly thank those original ed, and wSchioen tFcoieon kaF nopcuainratdl iasntu iopoupnro, rtphtu efbo Nlri cat htmiiosen esattliu nIdgny so twintu aNste opsv rooefmv Hibdeeeard l 1tbh8y,, a1tnh9de9 4Nth.aet iDoenpaal rItnmsteintut toef o Ef nJeursgtyic.e, the State Justice Institute, the National he ain This is a period of rapid progress in developing and testing new methods of DNA analysis and of rapid increase in the om te ret size and diversity of databases. The information that has accumulated since the 1992 report permits us to be more confident ated frnnot b orefc oomurm reencodmatimonens dsahtoiounlds. leCaodu trots mhuacvhe gsreeeant eers atigmreaetemse onft ammaotcnhg pthroe bvaabriiloituys reasntigminagte so.v Ie rh asveev enroa l ilolurdsieorns tohfa tm oaugrn riteupdoer.t Owuilrl es creer, ca eliminate the controversy; remaining uncertainties L filwev Mo Xh m g, ed fromattin en recomposg-specific forn. eno ation of the original work has bding styles, and other typesettiauthoritative version for attributi epresentaks, hean as the digital rord breblicatio e: This new e lengths, won of this pu PDF filnal; linnt versi About this to the origiuse the pri Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html ee us PREFACE vii s are trd. Plea eakerte and the adversary system in the courts guarantee its continuance. But I hope that we have substantially narrowed the range of ge bry ins acceptable differences. s. Paentall JAMES F. CROW ed CHAIRMAN esetting filbeen acci COMMITTEE ON DNA FORENSIC SCIENCE: AN UPDATE al typhave ginay orim he ors m terr k, not froographic op oy er bme t p ao ps original ed, and he ain m tret oe ated frnnot b ea es crer, c L filwev Mo Xh m g, ed fromattin en recomposg-specific forn. eno ation of the original work has bding styles, and other typesettiauthoritative version for attributi epresentaks, hean as the digital rord breblicatio e: This new e lengths, won of this pu PDF filnal; linnt versi About this to the origiuse the pri Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html ee us viii s are trd. Plea ke eaert ge bry ins Paall s. ent ed esetting filbeen acci al typhave ginay The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit. self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged orim in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general he ors welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it m terr to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy k, not froographic of ScTiehnec eNs.ational Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of ooyp Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its er bme t members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The apo National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages original ped, and s ethdeu cNaatitoionn aaln dA creasdeeamrcyh o, fa Endn grienceoegrninizge.s the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is interim president of he ain The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of m tret eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The oe Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser ated frnnot b tKoe nthnee thfe Id.e Srahli ngeo ivse prrnemsiednetn ta onfd ,t huep Ionns tiittust eo wofn M ineditiicaitnivee., to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. ea es crer, c The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad L filwev community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal XMho government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the m g, principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing ed fromattin sbeyr vbioctehs Atoc athdee mgioevse arnnmd ethnet, Itnhset iptuutbel iocf, Manedd itchien es.c iDenr.t iBfircu caen dA elbnegritnse aenridn gD cr.o Wmmilluianmiti eAs.. TWhuel fC aoruen cchila iirsm aadnm ainndis tienrteedri mjo ivnitclye en recomposg-specific forn. chawirmwawn.,n raestpioenctaivl-ealyc,a odfe tmhei eNsa.toiorngal Research Council. eno ation of the original work has bding styles, and other typesettiauthoritative version for attributi epresentaks, hean as the digital rord breblicatio e: This new e lengths, won of this pu PDF filnal; linnt versi About this to the origiuse the pri Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence http://www.nap.edu/catalog/5141.html ee us CONTENTS ix s are trd. Plea ke eaert ge bry ins Contents Paall s. ent ed esetting filbeen acci al typhave originmay Executive Summary 1 he ors m terr Overview 9 k, not froographic IODnuNtrroA Ad Tusscyitpgioinnnmg,,ent, 11019 op er bome ty BFoarseicn sGice nDeNticA P Irdiennctiipfliecsa,tion, 1124 p ao ps VNTRs, 14 original ed, and DMNatAch Pinrogf ailnindg B,inning of VNTRs, 1158 he ain Allele (Bin) Frequencies, 21 m tret PCR-Based Systems, 21 oe ated frnnot b APospsuurliantigo nL aGbeonraettoicrsy, Accuracy 2235 ea Randomly Mating Populations, 26 es crer, c Population Structure, 28 L filwev Dealing with Subpopulations, 28 XMho Persons from the Same Subpopulation 29 m g, Some Statistical Considerations 30 en recomposed frog-specific formattinn. TMhaet cRhe Pferroebnacbei lDitya,t aLbiakseel,ihood Ratio, and Two Fallacies. 3301 eno ation of the original work has bding styles, and other typesettiauthoritative version for attributi epresentaks, hean as the digital rord breblicatio e: This new e lengths, won of this pu PDF filnal; linnt versi About this to the origiuse the pri Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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In 1992 the National Research Council issued "DNA Technology in Forensic Science", a book that documented the state of the art in this emerging field. Recently, this volume was brought to worldwide attention in the murder trial of celebrity O. J. Simpson. "The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence" re