This page intentionally left blank The Essential Guide to Effect Sizes Thissuccinctandjargon-freeintroductiontoeffectsizesgivesstu- dentsandresearchersthetoolstheyneedtointerpretthepractical significanceoftheirresearchresults.Usingaclass-testedapproach that includes numerous examples and step-by-step exercises, it introducesandexplainsthreeofthemostimportantissuesrelating totheassessmentofpracticalsignificance:thereportingandinter- pretation of effect sizes (Part I), the analysis of statistical power (Part II), and the meta-analytic pooling of effect size estimates drawn from different studies (Part III). The book concludes with ahandy listofrecommendations forthoseactively engaged inor currentlypreparingresearchprojects. paul d. ellis is a professor in the Department of Management and Marketing at Hong Kong Polytechnic University, where he has taught research methods for fifteen years. His research inter- estsincludetradeandinvestmentissues,marketingandeconomic development,internationalentrepreneurship,andeconomicgeog- raphy.ProfessorEllishasbeenrankedasoneoftheworld’smost prolificscholarsinthefieldofinternationalbusiness. The Essential Guide to Effect Sizes Statistical Power, Meta-Analysis, and the Interpretation of Research Results Paul D. Ellis cambridgeuniversitypress Cambridge,NewYork,Melbourne,Madrid,CapeTown,Singapore, Sa˜oPaulo,Delhi,Dubai,Tokyo CambridgeUniversityPress TheEdinburghBuilding,CambridgeCB28RU,UK PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyCambridgeUniversityPress,NewYork www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9780521142465 ©PaulD.Ellis2010 Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished2010 PrintedintheUnitedKingdomattheUniversityPress,Cambridge AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary LibraryofCongressCataloguinginPublicationdata Ellis,PaulD.,1969– Theessentialguidetoeffectsizes:statisticalpower,meta-analysis,andthe interpretationofresearchresults/PaulD.Ellis. p. cm. Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN978-0-521-19423-5(hardback) 1.Research–Statisticalmethods. 2.Sampling(Statistics) I.Title. Q180.55.S7E45 2010 507.2–dc22 2010007120 ISBN978-0-521-19423-5Hardback ISBN978-0-521-14246-5Paperback CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceor accuracyofURLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredto inthispublication,anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuch websitesis,orwillremain,accurateorappropriate. ThisbookisdedicatedtoAnthony(Tony)Pecotich Contents Listoffigures pageix Listoftables x Listofboxes xi Introduction xiii PartI Effectsizesandtheinterpretationofresults 1 1. Introductiontoeffectsizes 3 Thedreadedquestion 3 Twofamiliesofeffects 6 Reportingeffectsizeindexes–threelessons 16 Summary 24 2. Interpretingeffects 31 Anage-olddebate–rugbyversussoccer 31 Theproblemofinterpretation 32 Theimportanceofcontext 35 Thecontributiontoknowledge 38 Cohen’scontroversialcriteria 40 Summary 42 PartII Theanalysisofstatisticalpower 45 3. Poweranalysisandthedetectionofeffects 47 Thefoolishastronomer 47 Theanalysisofstatisticalpower 56 Usingpoweranalysistoselectsamplesize 61 Summary 66 vii viii Contents 4. Thepainfullessonsofpowerresearch 73 Thelowpowerofpublishedresearch 73 Howtobooststatisticalpower 81 Summary 82 PartIII Meta-analysis 87 5. Drawingconclusionsusingmeta-analysis 89 Theproblemofdiscordantresults 89 Reviewingpastresearch–twoapproaches 90 Meta-analysisinsix(relatively)easysteps 97 Meta-analysisasaguideforfurtherresearch 109 Summary 112 6. Minimizingbiasinmeta-analysis 116 Fourwaystoruinaperfectlygoodmeta-analysis 116 1. Excluderelevantresearch 117 2. Includebadresults 122 3. Useinappropriatestatisticalmodels 127 4. Runanalyseswithinsufficientstatisticalpower 130 Summary 131 Lastword:thirtyrecommendationsforresearchers 134 Appendices 1. Minimumsamplesizes 138 2. Alternativemethodsformeta-analysis 141 Bibliography 153 Index 170
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