The Employment Consequences of Technological Change

250 Pages·1983·26.338 MB·English

by  Derek L. Bosworth (eds.)

THE EMPLOYMENT CONSEQUENCES OF
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
Tbis volume reports tbe proceedings of tbe European Production
Studies Group meeting beld at Lougbborougb University in 1980. It
contains a collection of papers on tbe economic causes and
consequences of technological change, focusing in particular on the
impact of the new technologies on the prospects for employment. The
volume not only includes a number of contributions that look at the
theoretical frameworks used as a basis for modelling labour demand,
but also contains the results of empirical studies at both the micro and
macro levels. The wealth of new research in the area and the results of
this research point at least to transitional problems in the labour
market, if not to the likelihood of long-term unemployment. The
volume therefore also contains a number of papers that focus on
possible employer, trade union and government responses to these
problems. These papers deal with the question of whether present
socio-political and economic mechanisms are adequate to cope with
the adjustments that will be necessary, given the scale of the problems
anticipated, and, if not, wh at other options are open to ensure that
economies achieve a new and acceptable position. The international
nature of the data and contributions indicate clearly that this is a topic
of world-wide interest rather than a parochial problem faced by the
United Kingdom in isolation. Nevertheless, there remains the question
of whether the UK will cope with the employment consequences of
technological change as adequately as other economies, which are
often competitors, and the implications of its failure to do so.
Also by Derek L. Bosworth
PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS: A Theoretical and Empirical Study
WORK PATTERNS: An Economic Analysis
THE EMPLOYMENT
CONSEQUENCES OF
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
Edited by
Derek L. Bosworth
M
MACMILLAN
PRESS
© Derek L. Bosworth 1983
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1983
All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission
of this publication may be made without written permission.
No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied
or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance
with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended).
Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to
this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and
civil claims for damages.
First edition 1983
Reprinted 1986
Published by
THE MACMILLAN PRESS LT D
Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS
and London
Companies and representatives
throughout the world
ISBN 978-1-349-06091-7 ISBN 978-1-349-06089-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-06089-4
To Jonathon and Matthew
Contents
List of Figures ix
List of Tables x
Preface xiii
Notes on the Contributors xiv
Introduction 1
1 Theoretical Approaches to the Effects of
Technical Change on Unemployment 13
Athar Hussain
2 Technological Change, Demand and Employment 25
Douglas Jones
3 The Nature of Unemployment under Technical
Progress 52
David Deaton and Peter Nolan
4 Employment Policy for Balanced Growth under
an Input Constraint 66
Daniel Weiserbs, A. Kervyn and Alan Ingham
5 New Technology, Demand and Employment 82
Paul Stoneman
6 The Diffusion of Microelectronic Technology
in South-East England 97
Tom Bourner, Howard Davies, Val Lintner,
A. Woods and M. Woods
7 Employment Projections and Structural Change 110
John Clark
8 Embodied Technical Change and the Age of
Capital: Empirical Evidence for Uanufacturing
Establishments 126
Stuart Wabe and Derek L. Bosworth
vii
viii contents
9 A Model for Long-run Forecasts of Employment
in Industrial Sectors 143
Sören Wibe
10 Consequences of Technological Change: the
Case of the Shipbuilding Industry 157
Richard Harrison
11 The Trade Union Response to New Technology 174
Bernard James
12 Responses to the Employment Consequences
of Technological Change 189
Linda Hesseiman and Ruth Speilman
13 Innovations in Work Organisation as a Response
to the Employment Implications of Technological 208
Change
Derek L. Bosworth and Peter Dawkins
Name Index 224
Subject Index 228
List of Figures
5.1 Employment and time: Stage 1: absolutely
labour-saving technology 92
5 .'~) Employcent and time: Stages 1 and 2: (r
absolute1y labour-saving technology < n) 95
7.1 Employment change per unit of investment
(smoothed), UK manufacturing 118
9.1 Observed production and estimated trend
for pulp 153
9.2 Observed production and estimated trend
for railway traffic 153
9.3 Observed production and estimated trend
for telephone cocmunications 154
9.4 Total employment in the pulp industry:
observed va1ues and estimated trend 154
9.5 Total emp10yment in railway traffic:
observed values and estimated trend 155
9.6 Total employment in telephone communications:
observed values and estimated trend 155
12.1 Hypothetical pay-off matrix 193
ix
List of Tables
3.1 Simulation of Solow's model: I 54
3.2 Simulation of Solow's model: II 55
3.3 Simulation of Solow's model: III 55
3.4 Simulation of Solow's model: IV 56
3.5 Simulation of Solow's model: V 57
3.6 Malinvaud model with shock increase in ß 60
3.7 Malinvaud model with shock increase in ß and
government providing sufficient demand,
shortage borne proportionately by all sectors 61
3.8 Ualinvaud model with shock increase in ß and
government providing sufficient demand,
shortage borne first by investment and then
consumption 63
4.1 Numerica1 examp1e I: Walrasian Golden Age 73
4.2 Numerica1 example 11: profit maximisation 76
4.3 Numerical example 111: maximisation of social
welfare 79
6.1 The diffusion of microe1ectronic technology
by activity 98
6.2 The diffusion of microe1ectronic technology
across business activities 100
6.3 The diffusion of microelectronic technology
by firm size 101
6.4 The adoption of microelectronic technology
by industry and area of operation 103
6.5 Perceived impediments to the introduction
of microelectronics 104
6.6 Perceived impediments by adoptionjnon
adoption of microelectronics 105
6.7 Perceived impediments by firm size 106
6.0 Employment expectations and the adoption
of microelectronics 108
7.1 Results of regression equation (1), 1920-38 114
7.2 Results of regression equation (1), 1949-79 115
7.3 Results of regression equation (9) 116
7.A1 Results for the whole economy 122
8.1 Labour productivity and aee of capital: France 130
8.2 Labour productivity and age of capita1: Japan 131
x