The Dynamics of Deforestation and Economic Growth in the Brazilian Amazon

283 Pages·2003·3.02 MB·English

by  Lykke E. Andersen

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The Dynamics of Deforestation and Economic
Growth in the Brazilian Amazon
Amulti-disciplinaryteamofauthorsanalyzetheeconomicsofBrazilian
deforestationusingalargedatasetofecologicalandeconomicvariables.
Theysurveythemostup-to-dateworkinthisfieldandpresenttheirown
dynamic and spatial econometric analysis based on municipality-level
paneldataspanningtheentireBrazilianAmazonfrom1970to1996.
Byobservingthedynamicsofland-usechangeoversuchalongperiod
theteamisabletoprovidequantitativeestimatesofthelong-termeco-
nomiccostsandbenefitsofbothlandclearingandgovernmentpolicies
suchasroadbuilding.Theauthorsfindthatsomegovernmentpolicies,
suchasroadpavinginalreadyhighlysettledareas,arebeneficialboth
foreconomicdevelopmentandforthepreservationofforest,whileother
policies,suchastheconstructionofunpavedroadsthroughvirginareas,
stimulatewastefullandusestothedetrimentofbotheconomicgrowth
andforestcover.
 . is Chief Economist at the Sustainable Devel-
opmentDepartment,InstituteforSocio-EconomicResearch,Catholic
UniversityofBolivia,LaPaz.
 .. isChancellor’sAssociateChairinEconomics,
UniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego.
A´.isDirectorofMacroeconomicStudies,Institutefor
AppliedEconomicResearch(IPEA),RiodeJaneiro.
 is a scientist at the Center for International Forestry
Research,Indonesia.
  is Lecturer in Development Economics, Devel-
opment Studies Institute, London School of Economics and Political
Science.

The Dynamics of Deforestation
and Economic Growth in the
Brazilian Amazon
Lykke E. Andersen
Clive W. J. Granger
Eusta´quio J. Reis
Diana Weinhold and
Sven Wunder
  
Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge  , United Kingdom
Published in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New York
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521811972
© Lykke E. Andersen, Clive W. J. Granger, Eustáquio J. Reis, Diana Weinhold, Sven Wunder
2002
This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provision of
relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place
without the written permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published in print format 2002
- 
isbn-13 978-0-511-07300-7 eBook (EBL)
- 
isbn-10 0-511-07300-3 eBook (EBL)
- 
isbn-13 978-0-521-81197-2 hardback
- 
isbn-10 0-521-81197-X hardback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of
s for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this book, and does not
guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
Contents
Listoffigures pagevii
Listoftables ix
Preface xiii
Listofacronymsandabbreviations xviii
1 Introduction 1
Deforestationanddevelopment 4
Structureofthebook 9
2 DevelopmentoftheBrazilianAmazon 11
Thegeographicfocus:theBrazilianLegalAmazonia 11
Historicalperspectives 13
“OperationAmazonia”andSUDAM 15
Theriseofenvironmentalconcern 18
Improvementsinmonitoringcapacityandenforcement 20
ThedistributionalimpactofAmazondevelopment 21
Avanc¸aBrasil 33
Conclusions 34
3 Themunicipaldatabase 36
Deforestation:conceptsandmeasures 37
Socio-economicdimensions 48
Geo-ecologicaldimensions 61
4 Thesourcesandagentsofdeforestation 66
Cattleranching 70
Small-andlarge-scaleagriculture 77
Logging 80
Mining 83
Hydroelectricdams 85
Propertyrights 86
Secondaryforestgrowth 88
5 Alternativestodeforestation:extractivism 91
Thedata 93
Mappingextractivevaluedensities 97
Explainingspatialdifferencesinextractionvalues 101
Conclusionsanddiscussion 107
v
vi Contents
6 Modelingdeforestationanddevelopmentinthe
BrazilianAmazon 111
Previousstudies 111
Modelspecification 113
Estimationresults 122
Policysimulations 138
Conclusions 149
7 Carbonemissions 152
Thecarboninventorymodel 153
Clearing,carbonemissions,andeconomicgrowth,1970–1985 160
Discussionoftheresults 163
Conclusions 166
8 Thecostsandbenefitsofdeforestation 167
TheglobalcostsandbenefitsofAmazondeforestation 167
ThevalueofintactAmazonianforests 173
ThevalueofclearedlandintheAmazon 189
TowardsabetteruseoftheAmazonrainforest 196
Conclusions 198
9 Conclusionsandrecommendations 200
Conclusions 200
Policyimplications 203
Technicalappendix 209
A1 Econometricphilosophy 209
A2 Panelmodelevaluation 211
A3 Randomreductionestimationstrategy 212
A4 Technicalissueswithsimulations 214
A5 Fullmodelresults 216
References 241
Index 257
Figures
2.1 LegalAmazonia,Brazil page12
2.2 AverageannualpercapitaGDPgrowthinthe
municipalitiesofLegalAmazonia,1970–1985 22
2.3 AverageannualpercapitaGDPgrowthratesin
themunicipalitiesofLegalAmazonia,1985–1995 23
2.4 AverageannualgrowthrateofruralpercapitaGDPin
themunicipalitiesofLegalAmazonia,1985–1995 24
2.5 PercapitaGDPinthemunicipalitiesofLegalAmazonia,
1995 24
2.6 Relationshipbetweenaveragepre-moveincomelevelof
migrantsandpovertyratesinthemunicipalitiesofLegal
Amazonia,1991 27
2.7 PovertyratesinthemunicipalitiesofLegalAmazonia,
1970,1980,and1991 28
2.8 LifeexpectancyinthemunicipalitiesofLegalAmazonia,
1970,1980,and1991 29
2.9 IlliteracyratesinthemunicipalitiesofLegalAmazonia,
1970,1980,and1991 30
2.10 InfantmortalityratesinthemunicipalitiesofLegal
Amazonia,1970,1980,and1991 30
2.11 PercentageofprivateareainsmallfarmsinLegal
Amazonianmunicipalities,1975,1985,and1995 31
2.12 Shareofprivateareaoccupiedbylargefarmsinthe
municipalitiesofLegalAmazonia,1975,1985,and1995 32
3.1 TotalcropareainBrazilaccordingtoAgriculturalCensus
andPAMdata,byyear,1980–1996 47
3.2 Ruralpopulationdensitiesinthemunicipalitiesof
LegalAmazonia,1970,1980,and1996 48
3.3 Ruralpopulationdensitiesinthemunicipalitiesof
LegalAmazonia,1995 49
3.4 Averageannualgrowthratesofruralpopulationin
LegalAmazonia,1970–1995 50
vii
viii Listoffigures
3.5 CattledensitiesinthemunicipalitiesofLegalAmazonia,
1970,1980,and1995 54
3.6 LANDSATsatelliteimagefrom1991ofapieceofthe
Transamazoˆnicahighway 57
3.7 LANDSATsatelliteimagefrom1991ofdeforestationin
RondoˆniaalongtheCuiaba´–PoˆrtoVelhohighway 58
3.8 CumulatedAreaofCUscreatedinLegalAmazonia,
1959–2001 62
4.1 LandpricesandinterestratesubsidiesinLegalAmazonia,
1968–1992 76
5.1 Valueofnon-woodextractiveproductsperhectareinLegal
Amazonia,1995/1996AgriculturalCensus 97
5.2 Valueofnon-woodextractionperestablishmentineach
municipalityofLegalAmazonia,1995/1996
AgriculturalCensus 100
7.1 Carboncontentsduringaslash-and-burncycle 155
8.1 Temperaturechangesoverthelast160,000years 183