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The Decision to Attack: Military and Intelligence Cyber Decision-Making PDF

245 Pages·2016·2.04 MB·English
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THE DECISION TO ATTACK This page intentionally left blank SERIES EDITORS William W. Keller Scott A. Jones Professor of International Affairs, Director of Export Control Programs, Center for International Trade and Security, Center for International Trade and Security, University of Georgia University of Georgia SERIES ADVISORY BOARD Pauline H. Baker William J. Long The Fund for Peace Sam Nunn School of International Affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology Eliot Cohen Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Jessica Tuchman Mathews Studies, Johns Hopkins University Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Eric Einhorn Scott D. Sagan Center for Public Policy and Administration, Center for International Security and University of Massachusetts, Amherst Cooperation, Stanford University John J. Hamre Lawrence Scheinman The Center for Strategic and International Monterey Institute of International Studies, Studies CNS- WDC Josef Joffe David Shambaugh Hoover Institution, Institute for International The Elliott School of International Affairs, Studies, Stanford University George Washington University Lawrence J. Korb Jessica Stern Center for American Progress FXB Center, Harvard School of Public Health This page intentionally left blank The Decision to Attack Military and Intelligence Cyber Decision- Making Aaron Franklin Brantly The University of Georgia Press Athens © 2016 by the University of Georgia Press Athens, Georgia 30602 www .ugapress .org All rights reserved Designed by Set in 10/13 Minion Pro by Graphic Composition, Inc., Bogart, Georgia Printed and bound by The paper in this book meets the guidelines for permanence and durability of the Committee on Production Guidelines for Book Longevity of the Council on Library Resources. Most University of Georgia Press titles are available from popular e- book vendors. Printed in the United States of America 20 19 18 17 16 c 5 4 3 2 1 Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data Names: Brantly, Aaron Franklin, author. Title: The decision to attack : military and intelligence cyber decision-making / Aaron Franklin Brantly. Other titles: Military and intelligence cyber decision-making Description: Athens, GA : University of Georgia Press, [2016] | Series: Studies in security and international affairs | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: lccn 2015032334 | isbn 9780820349206 (hbk. : alk. paper) | isbn 9780820349190 (ebook) Subjects: lcsh: Cyberspace—Security measures—Government policy—United States. | United States—Military policy—Decision making. | Offensive (Military science) Classification: lcc u163 .b69 2016 | ddc 355.4/1—dc23 lc record available at http://lccn.loc.gov/2015032334 I dedicate this book to my wife and best friend, Nataliya. She has stood by me and waited for more than five years while I finished my formal academic education and now as I have taken on the challenge of studying Cyber at the United States Military Academy’s Army Cyber Institute. She has read, commented on, and reread more of my words than anyone. It is her patient and enduring support that has enabled me to make it as far as I have. This page intentionally left blank CONTENTS List of Illustrations xi Acknowledgments xiii List of Abbreviations xv Chapter 1. Introduction to Cyber Decision- Making 1 Chapter 2. The Key Concepts of Cyber 25 Chapter 3. The Motivation and Utility for Covert Action 43 Chapter 4. Digital Power 63 Chapter 5. Anonymity and Attribution in Cyberspace 79 Chapter 6. Cyber and Conventional Operations: The Dynamics of Conflict 90 Chapter 7. Defining the Role of Intelligence in Cyberspace 101 Chapter 8. How Actors Decide to Use Cyber—a Rational Choice Approach 125 Chapter 9. Cognitive Processes and Decision- Making in Cyberspace 150 Chapter 10. Finding Meaning in the Expected Utility of International Cyber Conflict 157 Appendix A. Power Score Components and Scores 169 Appendix B. Modified Economist Intelligence Unit Component Values 171 Appendix C. Affinity Scores 189 Notes 191 Works Cited 203 Index 217

Description:
The debate over cyber technology has resulted in new considerations for national security operations. States find themselves in an increasingly interconnected world with a diverse threat spectrum and little understanding of how decisions are made within this amorphous domain. With The Decision to At
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