The Decision to Attack: Military and Intelligence Cyber Decision-Making

245 Pages·2016·2.04 MB·English

by  Aaron Franklin Brantly

THE DECISION TO ATTACK
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SERIES EDITORS
William W. Keller Scott A. Jones
Professor of International Affairs, Director of Export Control Programs,
Center for International Trade and Security, Center for International Trade and Security,
University of Georgia University of Georgia
SERIES ADVISORY BOARD
Pauline H. Baker William J. Long
The Fund for Peace Sam Nunn School of International Affairs,
Georgia Institute of Technology
Eliot Cohen
Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Jessica Tuchman Mathews
Studies, Johns Hopkins University Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Eric Einhorn Scott D. Sagan
Center for Public Policy and Administration, Center for International Security and
University of Massachusetts, Amherst Cooperation, Stanford University
John J. Hamre Lawrence Scheinman
The Center for Strategic and International Monterey Institute of International Studies,
Studies CNS- WDC
Josef Joffe David Shambaugh
Hoover Institution, Institute for International The Elliott School of International Affairs,
Studies, Stanford University George Washington University
Lawrence J. Korb Jessica Stern
Center for American Progress FXB Center, Harvard School of Public Health
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The Decision to Attack
Military and Intelligence
Cyber Decision- Making
Aaron Franklin Brantly
The University of Georgia Press
Athens
© 2016 by the University of Georgia Press
Athens, Georgia 30602
www .ugapress .org
All rights reserved
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Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data
Names: Brantly, Aaron Franklin, author.
Title: The decision to attack : military and intelligence cyber decision-making / Aaron Franklin
Brantly.
Other titles: Military and intelligence cyber decision-making
Description: Athens, GA : University of Georgia Press, [2016] | Series: Studies in security and
international affairs | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: lccn 2015032334 | isbn 9780820349206 (hbk. : alk. paper) | isbn 9780820349190
(ebook)
Subjects: lcsh: Cyberspace—Security measures—Government policy—United States. | United
States—Military policy—Decision making. | Offensive (Military science)
Classification: lcc u163 .b69 2016 | ddc 355.4/1—dc23 lc record available at
http://lccn.loc.gov/2015032334
I dedicate this book to my wife and best friend, Nataliya. She has stood by
me and waited for more than five years while I finished my formal academic
education and now as I have taken on the challenge of studying Cyber at
the United States Military Academy’s Army Cyber Institute. She has read,
commented on, and reread more of my words than anyone. It is her patient
and enduring support that has enabled me to make it as far as I have.
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CONTENTS
List of Illustrations xi
Acknowledgments xiii
List of Abbreviations xv
Chapter 1. Introduction to Cyber Decision- Making 1
Chapter 2. The Key Concepts of Cyber 25
Chapter 3. The Motivation and Utility for Covert Action 43
Chapter 4. Digital Power 63
Chapter 5. Anonymity and Attribution in Cyberspace 79
Chapter 6. Cyber and Conventional Operations:
The Dynamics of Conflict 90
Chapter 7. Defining the Role of Intelligence in Cyberspace 101
Chapter 8. How Actors Decide to Use Cyber—a Rational
Choice Approach 125
Chapter 9. Cognitive Processes and Decision- Making in Cyberspace 150
Chapter 10. Finding Meaning in the Expected Utility
of International Cyber Conflict 157
Appendix A. Power Score Components and Scores 169
Appendix B. Modified Economist Intelligence Unit Component Values 171
Appendix C. Affinity Scores 189
Notes 191
Works Cited 203
Index 217