THE COMPLEXITY OF COOPERATION princeton studies in complexity editors Philip W. Anderson (Princeton University) Joshua M. Epstein (The Brookings Institution) Duncan K. Foley (Barnard College) Simon A. Levin (Princeton University) Gottfried Mayer-Kress (University of Illinois) Other Titles in the Series Lars-Erik Cederman, Emergent Actors in World Politics: How States and Nations Develop and Dissolve Forthcoming Titles Scott Camazine, Jean-Louis Deneubourg, Nigel Franks, and Thomas Seeley, Building Biological Superstructures: Models of Self-Organization James P. Crutchfield and James E. Hanson, Computational Mechanics of Cellular Processes Ralph W. Wittenberg, Models of Self-Organization in Biological Development THE COMPLEXITY OF COOPERATION A G E N T- B A S E D M O D E L S O F C O M P E T I T I O N A N D C O L L A B O R AT I O N Robert Axelrod PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY Copyright(cid:1) 1997 by Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, Chichester, West Sussex All Rights Reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Axelrod, Robert M. The complexity of cooperation:agent-based models of competition and collaboration / Robert Axelrod. p. cm. — (Princeton studies in complexity.) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-691-01568-6 (cloth:alk. paper). — ISBN 0-691-01567-8 (pbk.:alk. paper) 1. Cooperativeness. 2. Competition. 3. Conflict management. 4. Adaptability (Psychology) 5. Adjustment (Psychology) 6. Computational complexity. 7. Social systems—Computer simulation. I. Title. II. Series. HM131.A894 1997 302(cid:1).14—dc21 97-1107 CIP This book has been composed in Sabon Princeton University Press books are printed on acid-free paper and meet the guidelines for permanence and durability of the Committee on Production Guidelines for Book Longevity of the Council on Library Resources Printed in the United States of America by Princeton Academic Press 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 (Pbk.) To Amy, Lily, and Vera This page intentionally left blank Contents List of Tables and Figures ix Preface xi Introduction 3 1. Evolving New Strategies 10 2. Coping with Noise 30 3. Promoting Norms 40 4. Choosing Sides 69 5. Setting Standards 95 6. Building New Political Actors 121 7. Disseminating Culture 145 Appendixes A. Replication of Agent-Based Models 181 B. Resources for Agent-Based Modeling 206 Index 223 This page intentionally left blank Tables and Figures Tables 1-1 The Prisoner’s Dilemma 16 1-2 The Basic Simulation 19 3-1 Example of Payoffs in the Norms Game 49 4-1 The Two Configurations Predicted for the Second World War in Europe 85 5-1 The Two Nash Equilibrium Configurations 113 5-2 Analysis of Variation in Rivalry Parameters around the Base Case 114 5-3 Extended Analysis of Variation in Rivalry Parameters 115 6-1 Commitments Forming a Proximity Pattern 136 6-2 Commitments Forming Pattern of Two Clusters 136 6-3 Development of Clusters of Commitments 137 7-1 A Typical Initial Set of Cultures 155 7-2 Average Number of Stable Regions 160 7-3 An Illustration of Social Influence between Dialects 164 A-1 Average Number of Stable Regions 191 A-2 Axelrod’s Work Log 199 A-3 Axtell’s Work Log 200 Figures 1-1 Prisoner’s Dilemma in an Evolving Environment 23 2-1 Performance as a Function of Noise 36 2-2 Ecological Simulation 37 3-1 Norms Game 49 3-2 Norms Game Dynamics 51 3-3 Metanorms Game 53 3-4 Metanorms Game Dynamics 54 4-1 A Landscape with Two Local Optima 77 6-1 Wealth of Each Actor over 1,000 Years (Population 1) 132 6-2 Fights and Population Wealth in Population 1 133 6-3 Wealth of Each Actor over 1,000 Years (Population 2) 134