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THE COMPLETE GUIDE TO CLIMATE CHANGE ‘Climate change is a wide-ranging and complex subject – a global challenge involving gov- ernments, companies, professionals and public action. This book provides a comprehensive coverage of the key scientific, technical, social and political aspects of climate change in an easily referenced and reader-friendly style. I would recommend this book to students and professionals new to the field that wish to expand their knowledge.’ Tom Baumann, CEO ClimateCHECK and Co-Founder Greenhouse Gas Management Institute For anyone trying to separate the fact from the fiction, The Complete Guide to Climate Changeis an indispensable resource. Taking you through the A to Z of the key scientific, geographical, and sociopolitical issues involved in the study of the environment and the implications of mankind’s effect upon it, topics covered include: • Environmental science – the carbon cycle and the “greenhouse gases” • The impacts of climate change on life, land,and sea • Mitigation strategies from carbon capture to carbon taxes • The Kyoto Protocol and UNFCCC • Renewable fuel sources, from wind to solar power Including guides to the latest scientific and governmental thinking on climate change, this book will tell you all you need to know about perhaps the biggest issue facing mankind today. Brian Dawsonis Climate Change and Energy Adviser for the Australian International Development Assistance Agency. Matt Spannagle is Technical Manager of the MDG Carbon Facility of the United Nations Development Programme. T C G T HE OMPLETE UIDE O C C LIMATE HANGE Brian Dawson and Matt Spannagle First published 2009 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Oxon OX14 4RN Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 270 Madison Ave, New York, NY 10016 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2008. “To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.” © 2009 Brian Dawson and Matthew Spannagle All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data A catalog record for this book has been requested ISBN 0-203-88846-4 Master e-book ISBN ISBN10: 0–415–47789–1(hbk) ISBN10: 0–415–47790–5(pbk) ISBN10: 0–203–88846–4(ebk) ISBN13: 978–0–415–47789–5 (hbk) ISBN13: 978–0–415–47790–1 (pbk) ISBN13: 978–0–203–88846–9(ebk) CONTENTS List of illustrations vii Preface ix Acknowledgments xi Adaptation 1 Aerosols 6 Agriculture and food supply impacts 9 Albedo 14 Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions 20 Biodiversity impacts 27 Biofuels 35 Biosequestration 42 Carbon capture and storage 53 Carbon cycle 59 Carbon dioxide (CO) 66 2 Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO e) 72 2 Carbon sinks 73 Carbon tax 74 Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) 78 Climate change feedbacks 88 Climate change impacts 96 Climate sensitivity 103 Coastal zone impacts 106 Dangerous climate change 112 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 119 Emissions intensity 121 Emissions per capita 128 Emissions trading 136 Energy efficiency 146 Extreme weather events 156 Finance and insurance 162 Fossil fuels 170 Future emissions trends 179 Global dimming 188 Global warming 190 v CONTENTS Global warming potentials 194 Greenhouse effect 196 Greenhouse gas inventories 199 Greenhouse gases 207 Health impacts 212 Ice sheets and glaciers 219 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 224 Joint Implementation (JI) 229 Kyoto Protocol 236 Land carbon sinks 249 Marine impacts 258 Methane (CH) 263 4 Methane hydrates 270 Milankovich cycles 275 Mitigation 278 Nitrous oxide (NO) 288 2 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) 292 Nuclear power 293 Ocean carbon sinks 302 Ozone 307 Polar impacts 312 Radiative forcing 319 Renewable energy 323 Sea level rise 331 Socioeconomic impacts 336 Solar power 345 Stabilization targets 353 Synthetic gases 360 Technology, structural change, and organizations 366 Thermohaline 375 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 380 Water impacts 392 Wind power 399 Bibliography 407 Index 426 vi ILLUSTRATIONS Tables 1 Albedo of various surfaces 15 2 Greenhouse gas emissions and shares 2004 22 3 Greenhouse gas emissions of selected countries in 2000 25 4 Cumulative greenhouse gas emissions for selected countries in 2002 26 5 Biofuel production costs and emission reduction potential 39 6 Change in atmospheric CO concentrations 68 2 7 Emission intensities for selected countries 125 8 Emissions per capita for selected countries (2000 data) 130 9 Projected fossil fuel consumption to 2030 176 10 Greenhouse gas global warming potentials 194 11 100-year global warming potentials of Kyoto Protocol gases 195 12 Average dry composition of the atmosphere up to 25 km 208 13 Kyoto gases and their chemical formulae 210 14 Kyoto Protocol emissions data including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) 239 15 Estimated emission reduction potential of mitigation options by 2030 and 2050 284 16 2005 radiative forcing contributions 321 17 Relationship between atmospheric concentrations and global mean temperature increases 356 18 Emissions pathways to 500 and 550 ppm stabilization 358 19 Long waves of innovation and economic development 367 20 Conference of the Parties (COP) meetings 383 21 UNFCCC country categories 386 Figures 1 The carbon cycle 61 2 Climate and atmospheric history of the past 400,000 years from the Vostok ice core 68 3 The Keeling curve 70 4 The natural greenhouse effect 197 5 Global average methane concentrations in the atmosphere 268 6 The thermohaline 377 vii PREFACE Climate change has emerged as one of the defining political and socioeconomic issues of the twenty-firstcentury. Although it has been part of the scientific agenda since the 1970s, it only really began to attract widespread international attention dur- ing the 1990s. It is now a mainstream political issue that people need to understand and respond to. Climate change is a complex issue that covers the full spectrum of scientific, economic, social, and political disciplines, and few people have the opportunity to attain a comprehensive and in-depth understanding of all facets of climate change. The purpose of this book is to assist readers to gain a better understanding by distilling current knowledge and key issues in an easily understandable form. Over the past two decades, enormous progress has been made in the understanding of climate science, the likely repercussions of a changing climate on human and natural systems, and what options are available to reduce the extent of future climate change. Thousands of research papers, reports, articles, and opinion pieces have been published on climate change, and these have presented a wide range of diver- gent, and often opposing, views. Climate change is an issue that has been the subject of ongoing, and at times heated, scientific and political debate. Although uncertainty remains in respect to the magnitude, timing, and extent of climate change and its impacts, the vast body of scientific evidence presents a compelling case that human activities have already changed the earth’s climate and, if present emission trends persist, the changes that are projected to occur over the course of this century are likely to be very dangerous indeed. The book consists of 64 separate entries, each of which covers a specific topic or issue relevant to climate change. Each entry is, in effect, a stand-alone essay that provides the reader with a summary overview of the current knowledge and understanding of the topic. The information contained in each entry is sourced from the most recent and authoritative literature on the subject. Each entry contains cross ref- erences to other entries, so that readers can find more detailed information on related issues. At the end of each entry, readers are directed to other entries most relevant to the topic under discussion and to further information sources that cover the topic in more detail. The book covers all the key concepts of climate change, including climate science, projected impacts, social and political drivers underlying future emissions, finance and carbon markets, the potential contribution of different mitigation options, and the international political and administrative infrastructure that guides the international community’s response to climate change. ix