The Challenge of Chance: A Multidisciplinary Approach from Science and the Humanities PDF
Preview The Challenge of Chance: A Multidisciplinary Approach from Science and the Humanities
T H E F R O N T I E R S C O L L E C T I O N Klaas Landsman Ellen van Wolde (Eds.) T H E C H A L L E NGE OF C H A NC E A Multidisciplinary Approach from Science and the Humanities THE FRONTIERS COLLECTION Series editors Avshalom C. Elitzur Iyar The Israel Institute for Advanced Research, Rehovot, Israel e-mail: [email protected] Laura Mersini-Houghton Department of Physics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255, USA e-mail: [email protected] T. Padmanabhan Inter University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUCAA), Pune, India e-mail: [email protected] Maximilian Schlosshauer Department of Physics, University of Portland, Portland, OR 97203, USA e-mail: [email protected] Mark P. Silverman Department of Physics, Trinity College, Hartford, CT 06106, USA e-mail: [email protected] Jack A. Tuszynski Department of Physics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB T6G 1Z2, Canada e-mail: [email protected] Rüdiger Vaas Center for Philosophy and Foundations of Science, University of Giessen, 35394 Giessen, Germany e-mail: [email protected] THE FRONTIERS COLLECTION Series Editors A.C. Elitzur L. Mersini-Houghton T. Padmanabhan M. Schlosshauer M.P. Silverman J.A. Tuszynski R. Vaas The books in this collection are devoted to challenging and open problems at the forefront of modern science, including related philosophical debates.In contrast to typical research monographs, however, they strive to present their topics in a manner accessible also to scientifically literate non-specialists wishing to gain insight into thedeeper implicationsandfascinating questions involved.Taken asa whole,theseriesreflectstheneedforafundamentalandinterdisciplinaryapproach to modern science. Furthermore, it is intended to encourage active scientists in all areas to ponder over important and perhaps controversial issues beyond their own speciality. Extending from quantum physics and relativity to entropy, conscious- ness and complex systems—the Frontiers Collection will inspire readers to push back the frontiers of their own knowledge. More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/5342 Forafulllistofpublishedtitles,pleaseseebackofbookorspringer.com/series/5342 Klaas Landsman Ellen van Wolde (cid:129) Editors THE CHALLENGE OF CHANCE A Multidisciplinary Approach from Science and the Humanities Editors KlaasLandsman EllenvanWolde Faculty of Science Faculty of Philosophy, Theologyand Radboud University ReligiousStudies Nijmegen Radboud University TheNetherlands Nijmegen TheNetherlands ISSN 1612-3018 ISSN 2197-6619 (electronic) THEFRONTIERS COLLECTION ISBN978-3-319-26298-7 ISBN978-3-319-26300-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-26300-7 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2015956118 ©TheEditor(s)(ifapplicable)andTheAuthor(s)2016.Thisbookispublishedopenaccess. Open Access This book is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution- Noncommercial 2.5 License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.5/) which permits any non- commercialuse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedtheoriginalauthor(s)andsource arecredited. The images or other third party material in this book are included in the work’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if such material is not included in the work’s CreativeCommonslicenseandtherespectiveactionisnotpermittedbystatutoryregulation,userswill needtoobtainpermissionfromthelicenseholdertoduplicate,adaptorreproducethematerial. Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllcommercialrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewhole orpartofthematerialisconcerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseofillustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. Theuse ofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc. inthis publi- cationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromthe relevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authorsortheeditorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinor foranyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade. Printedonacid-freepaper ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbySpringerNature TheregisteredcompanyisSpringerInternationalPublishingAGSwitzerland Contents Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Klaas Landsman, Ellen van Wolde and Noortje ter Berg Conceptual and Historical Reflections on Chance (and Related Concepts). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Christoph H. Lüthy and Carla Rita Palmerino The Mathematical Foundations of Randomness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Sebastiaan A. Terwijn Randomness and the Madness of Crowds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Utz Weitzel and Stephanie Rosenkranz Randomness and the Games of Science . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Jelle J. Goeman The Fine-Tuning Argument: Exploring the Improbability of Our Existence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Klaas Landsman Chance in the Hebrew Bible: Views in Job and Genesis 1. . . . . . . . . . . 131 Ellen van Wolde Happiness and Invulnerability from Chance: Western and Eastern Perspectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 Johannes M.M.H. Thijssen and David R. Loy The Experience of Coincidence: An Integrated Psychological and Neurocognitive Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 Michiel van Elk, Karl Friston and Harold Bekkering WhenChanceStrikes:RandomMutationalEventsasaCauseofBirth Defects and Cancer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 Han G. Brunner v vi Contents Chance, Variation and the Nature of Causality in Ecological Communities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 Hans de Kroon and Eelke Jongejans The Size of History: Coincidence, Counterfactuality and Questions of Scale in History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 Olivier Hekster Accidental Harm Under (Roman) Civil Law. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 233 Corjo Jansen Taming Chaos. Chance and Variability in the Language Sciences. . . . . 249 Roeland van Hout and Pieter Muysken Biographies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267 Titles in this Series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 273 About the Editors Klaas Landsman (1963) obtained his Ph.D. in Theoretical High-Energy Physics from the University of Amsterdam in 1989. He was a research fellow at the University of Cambridge from 1989 to 1997, interrupted by an Alexander von Humboldt Fellowship at Hamburg in 1993–1994. He was sub- sequently a Royal Academy Research Fellow at the University of Amsterdam from 1997 to 2002, and obtained a Pioneer Grant from NWO in 2002. Klaas has held the Chairs in Analysis and subsequently in Mathematical Physics at the Radboud University since 2004, and in 2011 was awarded the Bronze Medal of this university for his outreach work in mathematics. His research is mainly concerned with non-commutative geometry and with the mathematical foundations of quantum theory. The latter topic lies behind his interest in (pure) chance and probability. Ellen van Wolde (1954) obtained her Ph.D. in Biblical Studies from Radboud University in 1989. She was a professor at the Faculty of Theology of UniversityofTilburgfrom1992to2008,andhasheld the Chairs in Textual Sources of Judaism and Christianity at Radboud University since 2009. In 2005 she was appointed as a member of the KNAW, becoming a member of its Executive Board in 2011. Ellen’s research is mainly concerned with the Old Testament Books of Genesis and Job, and with methodological approaches that acknowledge the role culture andlanguageplaysintheformationofbiblical texts. A related field of interest of hers is the question how chance, bad luck, or coincidencewereexplainedinancientculturesandreligions,especiallyinsofaras these explanations still influence our present views. vii Introduction Klaas Landsman, Ellen van Wolde and Noortje ter Berg DasGewebedieserWeltistausNotwendigkeitundZufallgebildet (Thefabricofrealityisbuiltfromnecessityandchance) Goethe Abstract This chapter introduces the theme of the book (i.e., the challenge of chance) and includes brief surveys of the individual chapters. The collapse of cohesion is one of the features that characterize chance. By sheer accident, or so it seems, something breaks the typical regularity of the natural world,likeacometdisruptingthesolarsystem.Atahumanscale,wefindexamples likeunexpectedlybumpingintoanoldfriend,orlosingalovedoneinanaccident. Such (seemingly) random phenomena appear arbitrary; they disrupt our lives and frustrate our human need for logic and meaning. The ensuing feelings of uncer- tainty and apprehensiveness, in turn, trigger us to search for explanations that will help restore order and normal patterns of cause and effect. In a word, we are challenged by chance, and we have been so at least since antiquity. Howdowerespondtosuchchallenges?Forthousandsofyearspeoplehavetried todecidewhetherchanceisafundamentalandirreduciblephenomenon,i.e.certain eventsarenotcaused—theyjusthappen,orwhetherchanceismerelyareflectionof our ignorance. Either way, we find the experience of chance hard to deal with. Humans constantly try to understand random phenomena and prefer explanations that (re)install meaning. The question, then, is whether this search for explanation and meaning has succeeded, or,at least, hasa fightingchance(sic)to succeed. This question is more subtle than it appears, since with his revolutionary claim that the universe is necessarily the way it is and yet has no goal, Spinoza cut the thread connecting explanation and purpose. Even necessity was subsequently K.Landsman(&) FacultyofScience,RadboudUniversity,Nijmegen,TheNetherlands e-mail:[email protected] E.vanWolde FacultyofPhilosophy,TheologyandReligiousStudies,RadboudUniversity, Nijmegen,TheNetherlands e-mail:[email protected] N.terBerg RadboudHonoursAcademy,RadboudUniversity,Nijmegen,TheNetherlands ©TheAuthor(s)2016 1 K.LandsmanandE.vanWolde(eds.),TheChallengeofChance, TheFrontiersCollection,DOI10.1007/978-3-319-26300-7_1 2 K.Landsmanetal. challenged by Darwin’s theory of evolution in the 19th century, followed by quantum theory in the 20th, in both of which chance plays a fundamental role. Insultfollowinginjury,fromHumeandKantonwardseventhecausalpatternsthat permeate traditional science began to be questioned. From Aristotle to the 18th century,naturalphilosophyhadseenthesepatternsasreal,ourrolebeinglimitedto discoveringthem.Now,however,causalitywasclaimedtobeamereby-productof oursubjectiveneedforrules,patterns,andmeaning,whicheventuallyledBertrand Russelltohiswitticismthatcausalityis“arelicofabygoneage,surviving,likethe monarchy, only because it is erroneously supposed to do no harm.” The overall picture was summarized by the chilling words of Physics Nobel Laureate and popular science writer Steven Weinberg: “The more the universe appears comprehensible, the more it also appears pointless.” However, he imme- diately qualified this pessimistic view (quoted from his popular account of the Big Bang entitled The First Three Minutes) in the following way: “But if there is no solaceinthefruitsofourresearch,thereisatleastsomeconsolationintheresearch itself.Menandwomenarenotcontenttocomfortthemselveswithtalesofgodsand giants, or to confine their thoughts to the daily affairs of life; they also build telescopes and satellites and accelerators, and sit at their desks for endless hours working out the meaning of the data they gather. The effort to understand the universeisoneoftheveryfewthingsthatliftshumanlifealittleabovethelevelof farce, and gives it some of the grace of tragedy.” This effort to understand includes the present book, which complements the excellentinterdisciplinarybooksonchancethathavealreadyappearedoverthelast decades,bothatascholarly1andapopular2level.Byincorporatingawiderangeof historicalandcontemporarysciences,thestudiespresentedhereallowustodevelop a transdisciplinary perspective on chance. Thus our multidisciplinary approach, in which a team of authors explores the issue of chance in the disciplines of philos- ophy, mathematics, economics, game theory, statistics, physics, theology, neu- ropsychology, genetics, ecology, history, law, and linguistics, makes us aware of shared insights in these distinct disciplines. Let us first give a short survey of the articles originating in these various disciplines, to conclude with a few thoughts towards a transdisciplinary perspective on chance. 1See,forexample,G.Gigerenzeretal.(eds.),TheEmpireofChance(CambridgeUniversityPress, 1989),L.Krügeretal.,TheProbabilistic Revolution,Vols.1,2(MITPress,1990),I.Hacking, The Taming of Chance (Cambridge University Press, 1990), I. Hacking, The Emergence of Probability(CambridgeUniversityPress,2nded.2006),S.Kern,ACulturalHistoryofCausality (Princeton University Press, 2004), P. Vogt, Kontingenz und Zufall: eine Ideen- und Begriffgeschichte(Akademie-Verlag,2011). 2E.g.,N.N.Taleb,Fooledby Randomness(Penguin,2004),W.Poundstone, Fortune’sFormula (HIllandWang,2005),K.Mainzer,DerkreativeZufall(C.H.Beck,2007),N.Silver,TheSignal and theNoise:TheArt and Science of Prediction(Penguin, 2012),D.Hand,TheImprobability Principle(BantamPress,2014).
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