The BRICs, US ‘Decline’ and Global Transformations

253 Pages·2015·1.43 MB·English

by  Ray Kiely (auth.)

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The BRICs, US ‘Decline’ and
Global Transformations
Ray Kiely
Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University of London, UK
© Ray Kiely 2015
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2015 978-1-137-49996-7
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First published 2015 by
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ISBN 978-1-349-50540-1 ISBN 978-1-137-49997-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1057/9781137499974
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Contents
List of Tables vii
Acknowledgements ix
1 Introduction 1
2 The Rise of the South: Rising BRICs, Declining US? 9
Developmental change and transformation through 10
convergence
Geopolitical change and transformation 15
Rising South, declining West?: Competing perspectives 16
Conclusions: Issues for further consideration 30
3 The BRICs, State Capitalism and Globalization: Challenge 33
to or Triumph of the West?
Triumph of the West?: The South and the opportunities 34
of globalization
Challenge to the West? State capitalism, the China model 39
and the Beijing Consensus
States and markets in the development of the BRICs 44
States, markets and the question of neoliberalism 57
Conclusion 63
4 The BRICs, the South and the International Economy, 65
1992 to 2007
Globalization and the emerging markets boom of the 1990s 65
Convergence at last?: The boom from 2002 to 2007 71
The limits of convergence, 1992 to 2007 75
Conclusion 90
5 The South and the Causes and Consequences of the 91
Financial Crisis, 2007–14
The immediate causes of the global financial crisis 2008 92
From boom to bust: The international origins of the crisis 105
The consequences of the crisis: The transformation of the 109
international order?
Conclusion: Inequality and the crisis in the US as a global 126
crisis
v
vi Contents
6 Global Inequality and the Rise of the South 129
The question of international inequality 129
Inequality and poverty within countries 132
Global inequality manifested: The food crisis and the 139
international division of labour
Conclusion 150
7 The South and Geopolitics: From Bandung to the BRICS? 152
The Third World and the South after 1945 152
The new South 156
Transforming international order? 167
Conclusion 173
8 Conclusion: Development, Innovation and the Limits of 174
International Transformation
The rise of the South and development theory 175
The rise of the South and technological innovation 181
The limits of international transformation 187
Notes 195
References 200
Index 223
List of Tables
Table 2.1 Annual average real GDP growth rates 14
Table 4.1 Manufacturing shares of exports by country, 67
excluding oil
Table 4.2 Annual average growth rates (percentages) of GDP 69
and exports in China, US and Europe since the late 1970s, up
to the financial crisis in 2008
Table 4.3 World output growth (annual percentage change) 72
Table 4.4 Average annual percentage GDP growth, 1960–2010 73
Table 4.5 Percentage change (increase/decrease) in primary 74
commodity prices over previous year (excluding crude
petroleum)
Table 4.6 Share of economies in world GDP 80
Table 4.7 Growth of GDP and other components in China 85
Table 4.8 China’s trade with the other BRICs (in US $billion) 86
Table 4.9 India’s trade with the other BRICs 86
Table 4.10 Commodities imports of China 87
Table 4.11 Manufactured imports of China 88
Table 5.1 Official holdings of China and Japan of long-term 108
agency debt
Table 5.2 China’s contribution to global consumption growth 113
of particular commodities, 2002–12
Table 5.3 Primary commodity prices, measured by percentage 114
change over previous year
Table 5.4 Capital flows to the South pre- and post-financial 117
crisis
Table 5.5 Private and official net purchases of US long-term 123
securities by foreigners
Table 6.1 Global Gini Co-efficient, percentage measurement, 137
various years
Table 6.2 Theil Co-efficient, percentage measurement, various 137
years
Table 6.3 Global population by consumption groups 140
Table 6.4 Shares of global consumption growth 141
Table 6.5 Merchandise imports from low wage economies 147
(as percentage share of total merchandise imports)
vii
viii List of Tables
Table 7.1 Composition of Latin America and Caribbean 161
exports to China, and to the rest of the world
Table 7.2 Percentage increase in consumption growth, 2002 161
to 2007
Acknowledgements
I would like to acknowledge the following for permission to draw on and
adapt tables in this book: Mark Weisbrot, Rebecca Ray and www.cepr.net,
Andrew Sumner, Yilmaz Akyuz, Richard Kozul Wright and UNCTAD,
Rhys Jenkins, Helen Thompson, Francesca Beausang, the United Nations,
Palgrave and Taylor and Francis (www.tandfonline.com).
Much of this project was conceived (and delayed) while Head of
School at SPIR, QMUL. Thanks to the Faculty of Humanities and Social
Sciences and the School of Politics and International Relations at
Queen Mary University of London, a very collegial place to work.
Particular thanks within the School to James Dunkerley and Michael
Kenny for reading and commenting on original proposals related to
this project, and to Bryan Mabee and Rick Saull for comments on and
support related to parts of this work. Adam Fagan, Jean Francois Drolet,
David Williams and Sophie Harman were also important sources of col-
legial support and friendship, especially as this project moved to the
next one without this one being completed. Thanks also to Shaun
Breslin, Andrew Gamble, Leo Panitch, Alfredo Saad-Filho, Andy Storey,
Andy Sumner, for their support for and/or comments on this project at
various stages of development, and to Shirley Tan for copy-editing
with great efficiency. As always, the music of Low, Will Oldham, MBV
and PJ Harvey (among many others), and for much of this project, the
late Gene Clark, and indeed Gabriel-era Genesis, helped keep me sane,
as did work by Vince Gilligan, David Simon and Ed Burns, and Paul
Feig. Bill Haverchuck rocks! Thanks as always and love to Emma, Will
and Ella.
ix