the Academy

158 Pages·2017·7.15 MB·English

www.pwc.ch/academy
Welcome to
PwC’s Academy
www.pwc.ch/academy
Geneva Treasury
Conference 2017
Thursday, 30 March 2017
An event presented
by PwC’s Academy
for CFO’s and
Treasurers
Agenda
08.30 Welcome coffee
09.00 Welcome and introduction
Michiel Mannaerts, Director, PwC Switzerland
09.10 Time of uncertainty – global economic outlook
Patrick Zweifel, Chief Economist, Pictet Asset Management
09.55 Funding: What determines the currency and the tenor of debt?
Lane Silverman, Group Tresurer, Japan Tabacco International
10.30 Coffee Break
11.05 Simplified cash – Cashflow forecasting and counterparty risk management
process at Givaudan
Antonio Nota, Group Treasury, Givaudan
Aniket Kulkarni, Director, PwC Switzerland
11.40 Treasury in the spotlight at a global commodity trader
David Stanton, Group Head of Treasury, Mercuria Energy Trading
12.15 Lunch
Agenda
13.45 PwC global treasury survey 2017: The virtual treasury – panel discussion
Lane Silverman, Group Treasurer, Japan Tobacco International
Michiel Mannaerts, Director, PwC Switzerland
Sebastian di Paola, Partner, PwC Switzerland
14.30 Blockchain – A practical application for settlement systems in the airline
industry
Stephen Darnley, Corporate Treasurer, IATA
15.05 Coffee Break
15.40 Regulation and tax: What are the regulatory and tax topics now, what is on the
horizon and what does it mean for you?
Stefan Wüest, Director, PwC Switzerland
Dmitry Deniskin, Director, PwC Switzerland
Sebastian di Paola, Partner, PwC Switzerland
16.25 Digital finance & inclusion – innovation in humanitarian assistance
Carmen Hett, Treasurer, UNHCR
17.00 Summary and closing remarks
Michiel Mannaerts, Director, PwC Switzerland
17.15 Apéro
www.pwc.ch/academy
Time of uncertainty –
global economic outlook
Patrick Zweifel
Chief Economist
Pictet Asset Management
Times of uncertainty - global
economic outlook
PATRICK ZWEIFEL
30 March 2017
PWC Geneva Treasury Conference
2017
For professional investors only
HIGHER WORLD GDP GROWTH IN 2017 THANKS TO THE US & EM (EX-CHINA & INDIA)
World GDP growthby major regions& countries World GDP growthby major regions: 2017 forecasts
5.0 1.8
EM (EX-CHINA & INDIA) FCST
US
4.3 1.6
OTHER ADVANCED
4.0
INDIA
CHINA
1.4
3.0
3.0
pt)
% 1.2
2.7 h (
2.5 wt
o
2.0 gr
P 1.0
% Y/Y orld GD
w
1.0 o 0.8
n t
o
uti
b
ntri 0.6
o
0.0 c
WORLD GDP GROWTH
0.4
POTENTIAL GROWTH*
-1.0
0.2
-2.0
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 0.0
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
* mixed forecasting: non-accelerating inflation growth of output, HP filtering , working-age population
Source: Pictet Asset Management, CEIC, Datastream Source: Pictet Asset Management, CEIC, Datastream
7 Times of uncertainty -global economic outlook
Pictet Asset Management
For professional investors only
WORLD LEADING INDICATORS POINT TOWARDS A STRONG MOMENTUM IN ACTIVITY
World leading activity index* & real GDP growth World PMI & World industrial production growth
7.0 LEADING INDEX* (3M/3M ANN.) 4.0 58 7.0
LEADING INDEX* (Y/Y) WORLD PMI*
THRESHOLD
WORLD GDP (R.S.)
6.0
WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION** (R.S.) 6.0
WORLD POTENTIAL GDP** (R.S.)
56
3.5
5.0
5.0
4.0 54 54.2
4.0
3.0
3.0
% 2.7 %Y/Y 52 2.8 3.0 %Y/Y
2.0
2.5
2.0
1.0
50
1.0
0.0
2.0
48
-1.0 0.0
-2.0 1.5
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 46 -1.0
11 12 13 14 15 16 17
*Weighted averageof 39 countries leading indicators
**Mixed forecasting of four approaches to estimate potentialgrowth *26 Manufacturing PMIs GDP weighted / **42 Industrial production GDP weighted
Source: Pictet Asset Management, BIS, CEIC, Datastream Source: Pictet Asset Management, BIS, CEIC, Datastream
*Weighted average of 39 countries leading indicators
Source: Pictet Asset Management, CEIC, Datastream
8
Times of uncertainty -global economic outlook
Pictet Asset Management
For professional investors only
WORLD INFLATION PICKING UP : GLOBAL REFLATION?
World headline inflation rate* Developed markets inflation rate & oil prices
10 5.0 INFLATION RATE -DEVELOPED ECONOMIES 120
WORLD
OIL PRICE -BRENT (R.S.)
DEVELOPED
OIL PRICE -DEC 17 @60$ (R.S.) 100
EMERGING
4.0
8
73.9 80
3.0
60
6
40
37.9
2.0
1.9
Y
% Y/ 4 3.7 %Y/Y 20 %Y/Y
1.0
2.7 0
2
1.9
-20
0.0
-40
0
-1.0
-60
-2
-2.0 -80
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17
Source: Pictet Asset Management, CEIC, Datastream Source: Pictet Asset Management, CEIC, Datastream
*Weighted average of 42 countries inflation rates
9 Times of uncertainty -global economic outlook
Pictet Asset Management
For professional investors only
POLICY UNCERTAINTY AT RECORD HIGH LEVEL
Global policyuncertaintyby major region(GDP weighted) Policy uncertaintyby major countries(February2017)
400
AUSTRALIA
WORLD POLICY UNCERTAINTY INDEX
ADVANCED ECONOMIES NETHERLANDS
350
EMERGING ECONOMIES
SPAIN
300 ITALY
CHILE
4
0
0
2250
e GERMANY
c
n
si
ge UNITED STATES
a
er200
v
d a INDIA
o
eri
p CANADA

=150
0
0
1 RUSSIA
100 FRANCE
BRAZIL
50
UNITED KINGDOM
CHINA
0
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
100 = period average since 2004
*Index based on newspaperarticles regarding policy uncertainty. Source Economic Policy Uncertainty
*Index based on newspaperarticles regarding policy uncertainty. Source Economic Policy Uncertainty
Source: Pictet Asset Management, CEIC, Datastream, Economic Policy Uncertainty Source: Pictet Asset Management, economic Policy Uncertainty
10 Times of uncertainty -global economic outlook
Pictet Asset Management
For professional investors only