The 2000 Census: Interim Assessment

249 Pages·2002·2.8 MB·English

by  National Research Council, Committee on National Statistics, Panel to Review the 2000 Census

T H E
C E N S U S
I n t e r i m
A s s e s s m e n t
Panel to Review the 2000 Census
Constance F. Citro, Daniel L. Cork, and Janet L. Norwood, Editors
Committee on National Statistics
Division oNf BAeThIaOviNorAalL aRndE SoEciAaRl SCciHen CceOs UanNdC EIdLucation
National Research Council
I N T E R I M A S S E S S M E N T
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
A N AT I O N A LWaRsEhiSngEtoAnR, CDCH C O U N C I L
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the
Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are
drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National
Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the
committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special
competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
The project that is the subject of this report was supported by contract no.
50-YABC-8-66010 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S.
Census Bureau. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations
expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily
reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for
the project.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-07649-8
Library of Congress Control Number 2001097857
Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press,
2101 Constitution Avenue, NW, Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800)
624-6242 or [phone] (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet,
http://www.nap.edu
Suggested Citation: National Research Council (2001). The 2000 Census:
Interim Assessment. Panel to Review the 2000 Census, Constance F. Citro,
Daniel L. Cork, and Janet L. Norwood, editors. Committee on National
Statistics. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
Printed in the United States of America
©2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society
of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to
the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare.
Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy
has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and
technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of
Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter
of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding
engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members,
sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the
federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering
programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and
recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of
the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of
Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the
examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts
under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its
congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own
initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I.
Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences
in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the
Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government.
Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the
Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of
Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council
is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M.
Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the
National Research Council.
PANEL TO REVIEW THE 2000 CENSUS
JANET L. NORWOOD (Chair), Chevy Chase, Maryland
ROBERT M. BELL, AT&T Labs–Research, Florham Park, New Jersey
NORMAN M. BRADBURN, National Science Foundation, Arlington, Virginia
LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, The Wharton School,
University of Pennsylvania
WILLIAM F. EDDY, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
ROBERT M. HAUSER, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin
∗
RODERICK J.A. LITTLE, School of Public Health, University of Michigan
INGRAM OLKIN, Department of Statistics and School of Education, Stanford
University
D. BRUCE PETRIE, Canadian Institute for Health Information, Ottawa,
Ontario
CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Study Director
MICHAEL L. COHEN, Senior Program Officer
DANIEL L. CORK, Program Officer
AGNES GASKIN, Senior Project Assistant
MARISA GERSTEIN, Research Assistant
MICHELE VER PLOEG, Program Officer
MEYER ZITTER, Consultant
∗
Served until March 2000
v
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
2000–2001
JOHN E. ROLPH (Chair), Marshall School of Business, University of Southern
California
JOSEPH G. ALTONJI, Department of Economics, Northwestern University
LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, The Wharton School,
University of Pennsylvania
JULIE DAVANZO, RAND, Santa Monica, California
WILLIAM F. EDDY, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
ROBERT M. GROVES, Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of
Michigan
HERMANN HABERMANN, Statistics Division, United Nations, New York,
New York
JOEL L. HOROWITZ, Department of Economics, University of Iowa
WILLIAM KALSBEEK, Survey Research Unit, Department of Biostatistics,
University of North Carolina
RODERICK J.A. LITTLE, School of Public Health, University of Michigan
THOMAS A. LOUIS, RAND, Arlington, Virginia
DARYL PREGIBON, AT&T Labs–Research, Florham Park, New Jersey
FRANCISCO J. SAMANIEGO, Division of Statistics, University of California at
Davis
RICHARD SCHMALENSEE, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology
MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO, Department of Economics, University of Michigan
ANDREW A. WHITE, Director
vi
Preface
This volume contains the full text of two reports of the Panel to Review the
2000 Census. On October 9, 2001, the panel released its interim report in pre-
publication format. Titled The 2000 Census: Interim Assessment, the interim
report reviewed major census operations. It also assessed the U.S. Census
Bureau’s recommendation in March 2001 regarding statistical adjustment of
census data for redistricting. By design, the interim report did not address the
Census Bureau’s decision on adjustment for non-redistricting purposes, which
was anticipated to occur on or about October 15 (the decision was actually
announced on October 17).
Subsequently, on November 26, the panel sent a letter report to William
Barron, Acting Director of the Census Bureau. In the letter report, the panel
reviewed the new set of evaluations prepared by the Census Bureau in support
of its October decision.
These two reports—the letter report and the interim report—are packaged
together in this single volume to provide a unified discussion of statistical ad-
justment and other aspects of the 2000 census that the panel has considered
to date. The letter report is Part I of the volume; the interim report is Part
II. We have retained the title The 2000 Census: Interim Assessment to differ-
entiate this volume from the panel’s forthcoming final report. Both reports
have been edited slightly for continuity as a single volume; in particular, the
references from both individual reports are combined into a single list, and the
acknowledgments section has been revised to properly credit the reviewers of
both reports.
Janet L. Norwood, Chair
Panel to Review the 2000 Census
vii
Acknowledgments
The Panel to Review the 2000 Census wishes to thank the many people
who have contributed to the panel’s work and helped make possible the prepa-
ration of this interim report.
We thank, first, staff of the U.S. Census Bureau who prepared a large num-
ber of evaluation reports about the census, the Accuracy and Coverage Eval-
uation (A.C.E.) Program, and demographic analysis, made informative presen-
tations at panel meetings and workshops, and answered many specific ques-
tions about census procedures and evaluations. We thank particularly William
Barron, Cynthia Clark, Robert Fay, Howard Hogan, Ruth Ann Killion, Joseph
Knott, Donna Kostanich, John Long, J. Gregory Robinson, John Thompson, and
Preston J. Waite. Former director Kenneth Prewitt also made valuable contri-
butions to the panel’s meetings and workshops. Rajendra Singh has been very
helpful as the Census Bureau’s project officer throughout the study.
We further thank the Census Bureau for arranging for panel members and
staff to have access to key data files for analysis, beginning in February 2001.
Such access was provided not only to the panel, but also to congressional over-
sight groups, under procedures to safeguard confidentiality. The ability to an-
alyze key data sets provided knowledge of census and A.C.E. procedures and
evaluations that would not otherwise have been possible for the panel to ob-
tain.
We thank others in the professional community who participated in panel
workshops: Barbara Bailar, National Opinion Research Center (retired); Ste-
phen Fienberg, Carnegie Mellon University; David Freedman, University of
California, Berkeley; Charles Jones, U.S. Census Monitoring Board, Congres-
sional Members; Graham Kalton, Westat; Mary Mulry, Abt Associates; Jef-
frey Passel, Urban Institute; Allen Schirm, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc.;
Joseph Sedransk, Case Western Reserve University; Bruce Spencer, North-
western University; Philip Stark, University of California, Berkeley; Michael
Stoto, GeorgeWashington University; JosephWaksberg, Westat; MartinWells,
Cornell University; Kirk Wolter, National Opinion Research Center; Donald
Ylvisaker, University of California, Los Angeles; and Alan Zaslavsky, Harvard
Medical School.
ix