Testing for evidence of hierarchical system structure in the Manitoban boreal forest

130 Pages·1998·4.7 MB·English

by  Marples, Paul C

TESTINGFOREVIDENCEOFHIERARCHICALSYSTEMSTRUCTUREIN
THEMANITOBANBOREALFOREST
By
PAULC.MARPLES
ADISSERTATIONPRESENTEDTOTHEGRADUATESCHOOL
OFTHEUNIVERSITYOFFLORIDAINPARTIALFULFILLMENT
OFTHEREQUIREMENTSFORTHEDEGREEOF
DOCTOROFPHILOSOPHY
UNIVERSITYOFFLORIDA
1998
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Thiseffortwouldhavebeeninnowaypossiblewithouttheadvice,
support,andinspirationprovidedbyC.S."Buzz"Holling. Buzzhastherare
giftofbig-pictureperspective. Ithasbeenmyprivilegetopulloutafew
questionsfromthebodyoftheoryheproposesandperformteststhat
%
challengesomebasictheoreticalassumptionsinecology. CarmineLanciani,
LarryMcEdward,ColinChapman,andHenryGholzmustbethankedfor
theirfairandopen-mindedguidancethroughoutthisendeavor. Asmy
committeemembers,theirsuggestionsregardingthedesignofthestudy,
analysisofdata,andeditingthemanuscripthavebeenabsolutelyessentialfor
success. Allthehelpprovidedbythefaculty,staff,andgraduatestudentsof
thezoologydepartmenthasbeenindispensable.
IamdeeplygratefulforalltheassistanceprovidedbyCraigAllen,Toni
Carter,KatherineCullison,PaulDrewa,JoseFragoso,LanceGunderson,Mark
Hostetler,GarryPeterson,DanPickford,KenPortier,RustyPrichard,Carla
Restrepo,JeffSailer,andJanSendzimir. KatherineCullison,inparticular,
providedpersonalguidance,support,andassistancewithoutwhichIwassure
togoastray. Nowwecanbeginworkonthedomegreenhousemadeoutof
home-culturedbeeswaxandtonguedepressorswealwaysdreamedof. My
goodfriendMark"Hos"Hostetlersometimesstoppedbuggingmelong
enoughformetogetsomethingdone. Seriously,hehasagiftforconverting
beerandfrustrationintosolutionsandproductivity. Inapplicationofthe
generaltheory,Inevercouldneverhavebattledthe"devilinthedetails"
11
withouthim. Besides,Iswear,InevercheatedatRisk. Toallmyfriendsand
family,averyfondthankyou. HeyJoey,guesswhat.I'maprofessional!
IhaveGarryPetersontothankfortheuniqueinsightthatmodeling
fireprovides. Wildfireactsoverfarlargerscalesinspaceandtimethan
peoplecanordinarilyperceive. Amodelworldallowsoneto"see"how
patternsanddynamicscanemergeinintriguingvariety. There'snoquestion
thatmyfruitfulcollaborationwithGarryhelpedguidethisdissertation
throughout.
NoneoftheworkonfireinManitobacouldhavebeenbegunwithout
thevolumesofdataandkeyconsultationprovidedbyManitobaNatural
Resources,ForestryBranch. Whocanbeateffective,immediate,professional
helpwithafriendlysmile? GlennPeterson,inparticular,wentoutofhisway
toprovideanyassistancehecould. ManythankshavetoalsogotoGerald
Becker,NanTuinoff,andBillMeddforalloftheirhelp. JanSendzimirandI
willneverforgetthejoyofflyingovertheborealforestinahelicopter. We
haveBillMeddtothankforarrangingthat. AsIpictureitinmymind,Ihave
toparaphrase,YuriGagarinandsay"Iamdragonfly." Onlyflyingcreatures
canseehowfirereworksentirelandscapes.
Onlybywalkingabout,canonegetaninklingastohowtheboreal
forest"livesandbreathes." I'meversothankfultoJamesEhnesandNorm
KenkelattheUniversityofManitobaforwalkingaboutwithmeintheboreal
forest. IdoubtI'dhavemuchtosayofinteresttoanyoneiftheyhadn'ttaken
thetimetoshowmethenaturalhistoryofSoutheastManitoba. Iamalso
gratefulfortheassistanceprovidedbyWilliamO.PruittandHugoVeldhuis
attheUniversityofManitoba,HaroldPeacockandPeterClarksonatAbitibi-
Price,andRoyDixonandHartleyPokrantattheRemoteSensingCenter.
in
IamgratefulforthefundingsupportprovidedbyArthurR.Marshall,
Jr.EndowedChairinEcologicalSciences. Iamalsogratefulforthefunding
supportprovidedbyNASA/EOSgrantnumbersNAGW2524aspartofthe
InterdisciplinaryScientificInvestigationsprogramandNAGW3698 aspart
oftheTerrestrialEcologyprogram.
IV
TABLEOFCONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
ii
LISTOFTABLES viii
LISTOFFIGURES ix
ABSTRACT
xii
1 INTRODUCTIONANDOVERVIEW 1
ThreeTheoreticalViewsofEcosystems 2
ThreeTheoreticalViewsofWildfireintheMid-Continental
BorealForest 4
AlternativeTheoreticalViewsoftheMammalComponentof
BorealForestCommunities 6
Overview 7
2THEEFFECTOFLANDSCAPE-SCALEVEGETATIONPATTERNON
BOREALFORESTWILDFIREINSOUTHEASTMANITOBA,
CANADA
Introduction 9
Wildfire,theBorealForest,andClimateChange 10
AHierarchicalViewoftheMid-ContinentalBorealForest 11
StudySite 13
Methods 15
Acquisitionofdata 15
Creationofmasterfiremap 15
Characterizingfirehistory 16
Calculationofburnhazard 17
Results 19
FireHistory 19
BurnHazard 23
Discussion 26
FireHistory 26
GeneralIndicatorsofBurnHazardfromFireHistory 29
DirectMeasureofBurnHazardanditsImplications 30
Conclusions
v
3DETECTIONOFCOMPLEXMULTIMODALITYINECOLOGICAL
DATA
Introduction 34
StatisticsandtheDetectionofComplexMultimodality 35
Lump Simulation 39
ABriefOverview 39
ExperimentalDesign:anExample 40
CalculationofObservedMismatch 42
DeterminationoftheSignificanceofMismatch 48
SearchingforConsistentPattern 52
PowerandBehavior 56
TestingforComplexMultimodalityinMammalBodyMassData 61
ExperimentalDesign 62
Results 64
Discussion 66
Asignificantbutimperfectmatch 66
Datasharing 69
Power 70
Implications 71
Summary 72
4TESTINGFOREVIDENCEOFCOMPLEXMULTIMODALITYINFIRE
SIZESASEVIDENCEOFHIERARCHICALSYSTEMSTRUCTURE
INTHEBOREALFORESTOFMANITOBA,CANADA
Introduction 74
Wildfire,theBorealForest,andClimateChange 75
MechanismsUnderlyingHierarchi—calSystemStructureinthe
Mid-ContinentalBorealForest EvidenceandAlternatives 76
StudySite 80
Methods 83
Digitization,Mapping,andGeneralCharacterizationofData 83
Digitizationofamapofecoclimaticregions 83
Mappingwildfire 83
Measuresoffireregime 84
TestingforMultimodalityinFireSizes 85
Results 88
GeneralFireRegime 88
TestsforMultimodalityinFireSizes 93
Discussion 93
GeneralFireRegime 93
MultimodalityandTheoreticalSystemStructureoftheMid-
ContinentalBorealForest 94
Conclusions 97
vi
APPENDIX MAMMALSOFTHEBOREALFOREST 99
LISTOFREFERENCES 102
BIOGRAPHICALSKETCH 112
Vll
LISTOFTABLES
Table page
3-
34--1. Searchresultsobtained(whenSccv=0.75)intheexperimentexamining
setsA,B,C,andD 51
3-2. SearchresultsobtainedbytheLSexperimentexaminingborealforest
mammals 65
3. Shareddata(orpairwisesetintersection)ofborealforestmammals 70
1. ResultsofLumpSimulationexperiments 92
vm
)
LISTOFFIGURES
Figure page
2-1. ThelocationofthestudysitewithinSoutheastManitoba,Canada 14
2-2. Thestandoriginmapindicatingthedatesofthemostrecentbumasof
1990throughoutthestudyareainSoutheastManitoba 20
22--3. Theproportionofthestudyareaburnedannually:(a)inchronological
order,(b)rankordered 21
3-
2-4. Thetime-since-firedistribution 22
2-5. Theburncountmap. Thenumberoftimeseachportionofthe
SoutheastManitobastudyareaburnedbetween1929and1990isshown...24
2-6. Theburncountdistributionforthestudyareaasawholeandeach
individual subregion 25
7. Theburnhazarddistribution 25
1. 1,2,and10-modenormalkerneldensityestimatesofdatasetsA,B,C,
andD 36
3-2. Samplingdistributionsusedintheexampleexercises 41
3-3. Thebest-fit,2-mode,normalkerneldensity-estimateofsetAwithlump
intervals identified 42
3-4. Ofthreenominaldatasequences,whichpairingismoreclosely
correlated? ThephicoefficientgivesaanindexofcorrelationforXvs.Y
andXvs.Zof0.45. Myeyes,however,tellmethatXvs.Zshouldbemore
correlated 43
3-5. Thedistance-from-nearest-lump-edgemeasureforsetAwith2lumps
.44
3-6. Thedistance-from-lump-edgemeasuresforsetAwith2lumpsandset
Bwith1lump 44
3-7. Thefoursubcomponentsneededtocalculatemismatch(m 46
IX
3-8. Theobservedmismatch(m,y)ofsetsAandBoverallresolutionsgiving
upto10modes 48
3-9. ThematchsignificanceforallcomparisonsinalltestsintheLS
experimentexaminingsetsA,B,C,andD 50
3-10. Theexperiment-wise,typeIerrorrate(Pvalue),broadpower,and
narrowpowercalculatedastheexperimentexaminingsetsA,B,C,andD
proceedsthrougheachofits6tests 55
3-11. The2-modekernelestimatesofsetsA,B,C,andD 55
3-12. Theexperiment-wise,typeIerrorrate(Pvalue),broadpower,and
narrowpowerobtainedbythe10-modeexperiments, (a)whensamplesize
equals3nNAbm/and(b)whensamplesizeequals6nNAbm 58
3-13. ThematchsignificanceforallcomparisonsinalltestsintheLS
experimentsexaminingsetsA,BA,C,andDA 60
3-14. Theexperiment-wise,typeIerrorrate(Pvalue)andtheprobabilityof
3-findingvariouskindsofmultimodalityinexperimentsshiftingbimodal
distributionsout-of-phase 61
43--15. Thethreeborealforeststudyareasfromwhichmammalbodymass
datawerecollected:EasternNorthAmerica,NorthernEurope,andEastern
Russia 63
3-16. ThematchsignificanceforallcomparisonsinalltestsintheLS
experimentexamining the mammals 65
3-17. Theexperiment-wise,typeIerrorrate(Pvalue),broadpower,and
narrowpowerobtainedbythemammalexperiment 66
18. The10-modekernelestimatesofmammalsofEasternNorthAmerica,
NorthernEurope,andEasternRussia. Alsoshownarethecorrespondent
lumpintervals 67
1. Thelocationofthestudyarea:Manitoba,Canada 81
4-2. EcoclimaticregionsofManitoba 82
4-3. Thetotalareaburnedannuallywithin:(a)thehigh-boreal,and(b)the
mid-borealecoclimaticregionsofManitoba(1976-1991:includingthe
accuratelymappeddataonly) 86
x