Terrorism and the Chemical Infrastructure PROTECTING PEOPLE AND REDUCING VULNERABILITIES Committee on Assessing Vulnerabilities Related to the Nation’s Chemical Infrastructure Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology Division on Earth and Life Studies Transportation Research Board THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support for this study was provided by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under contract number HSHQPA-04-C-00010. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09721-5 Additional copies of this report are available from: The National Academies Press 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 (800) 624-6242 (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Cover illustrations: PhotoDisc; Corbis. Copyright 2006 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal govern- ment. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the supe- rior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sci- ences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the ex- amination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is presi- dent of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the Na- tional Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org COMMITTEE ON ASSESSING VULNERABILITIES RELATED TO THE NATION’S CHEMICAL INFRASTRUCTURE LINDA CAPUANO, Solectron Corporation, Chair LISA M. BENDIXEN, ICF Consulting ANTHONY J. FINIZZA, University of California, Irvine DENNIS C. HENDERSHOT, Chilworth Technology, Inc. ROBERT L. HIRSCH, Science Applications International Corporation BARRY M. HOROWITZ, University of Virginia WILLIAM R. KOCH, Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. HOWARD C. KUNREUTHER, University of Pennsylvania MICHAEL K. LINDELL, Texas A&M University GERALD V. POJE, Independent Consultant DONALD PROSNITZ, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory HAVIDAN RODRIGUEZ, University of Delaware PETER H. SPITZ, Chemical Advisory Partners Staff CHRISTOPHER K. MURPHY, Program Officer (until July 2005) ERICKA M. MCGOWAN, Research Associate DAVID C. RASMUSSEN, Program Assistant DOROTHY ZOLANDZ, Director, Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology THOMAS MENZIES, Senior Program Officer, Transportation Research Board v BOARD ON CHEMICAL SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY CHAIRS A. WELFORD CASTLEMAN, JR. (NAS), Pennsylvania State University ELSA REICHMANIS (NAE), Lucent Technologies Members PAUL T. ANASTAS, Green Chemistry Institute DENISE M. BARNES, Independent Consultant, Snellville, Georgia MARK E. DAVIS, California Institute of Technology JEAN DE GRAEVE, Université de Liège, Liège, Belgium MILES P. DRAKE, Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. CATHERINE C. FENSELAU, University of Maryland GEORGE W. FLYNN, Columbia University MAURICIO FUTRAN, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company ROBERT HWANG, Sandia National Laboratory JAY V. IHLENFELD, 3M Research & Development JAMES L. KINSEY, Rice University MARTHA A. KREBS, California Energy Commission WILLIAM A. LESTER, JR., University of California, Berkeley GREGORY O. NELSON, Eastman Chemical Company GERALD V. POJE, Independent Consultant, Vienna, VA DONALD PROSNITZ, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory MATTHEW V. TIRRELL, University of California, Santa Barbara NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL STAFF TINA M. MASCIANGIOLI, Program Officer ERICKA M. MCGOWAN, Research Associate SYBIL A. PAIGE, Administrative Associate DAVID C. RASMUSSEN, Project Assistant FEDERICO SAN MARTINI, Associate Program Officer DOROTHY ZOLANDZ, Director vi TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2005 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE* JOHN R. NJORD, Utah Department of Transportation, Chair MICHAEL D. MEYER, Georgia Institute of Technology, Vice Chair ROBERT E. SKINNER, JR., Transportation Research Board, Executive Director MICHAEL W. BEHRENS, Texas Department of Transportation ALLEN D. BIEHLER, Pennsylvania Department of Transportation LARRY L. BROWN, SR., Mississippi Department of Transportation DEBORAH H. BUTLER, Norfolk Southern Corporation and Subsidiaries ANNE P. CANBY, Surface Transportation Policy Project JOHN L. CRAIG, Nebraska Department of Roads DOUGLAS G. DUNCAN, FedEx Freight, Memphis NICHOLAS J. GARBER, University of Virginia, Charlottesville ANGELA GITTENS, Consultant GENEVIEVE GIULIANO, Metrans Transportation Center, (Past Chair, 2003) BERNARD S. GROSECLOSE, JR., South Carolina State Ports Authority SUSAN HANSON, Clark University JAMES R. HERTWIG, CSX Intermodal GLORIA J. JEFF, Michigan Department of Transportation ADIB K. KANAFANI, University of California, Berkeley HERBERT S. LEVINSON, Herbert S. Levinson Transportation Consultant SUE MCNEIL, Urban Transportation Center, University of Illinois MICHAEL MORRIS, North Central Texas Council of Governments CAROL A. MURRAY, New Hampshire Department of Transportation PHILIP A. SHUCET, Virginia Department of Transportation MICHAEL S. TOWNES, Hampton Roads Transit (Past Chair, 2004) C. MICHAEL WALTON, University of Texas, Austin LINDA S. WATSON, LYNX—Central Florida Regional Transportation Authority MARION C. BLAKEY, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) JOSEPH H. BOARDMAN, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) REBECCA M. BREWSTER, American Transportation Research Institute (ex officio) GEORGE BUGLIARELLO, Polytechnic University; National Academy of Engineering (ex officio) vii THOMAS H. COLLINS (Admiral), U.S. Coast Guard (ex officio) JENNIFER L. DORN, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) JAMES J. EBERHARDT, U.S. Department of Energy (ex officio) STACEY L. GERARD, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) EDWARD R. HAMBERGER, Association of American Railroads (ex officio) JOHN C. HORSLEY, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (ex officio) EDWARD JOHNSON, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ex officio) RICK KOWALEWSKI, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) WILLIAM W. MILLAR, American Public Transportation Association (ex officio) (Past Chair, 1992) MARY E. PETERS, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) ERIC C. PETERSON, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) SUZANNE RUDZINSKI, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ex officio) JEFFREY W. RUNGE, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) ANNETTE M. SANDBERG, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) WILLIAM G. SCHUBERT, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) JEFFREY N. SHANE, U.S. Department of Transportation (ex officio) CARL A. STROCK (Major General), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (ex officio) *Membership as of June 2005 viii Preface he Committee on Assessing Vulnerabilities Related to the Nation’s Chemical Infrastructure was convened by the National Academies Tto respond to a request from the Department of Homeland Secu- rity (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T). The directorate sought assistance in making research, development, and technology invest- ments that would help secure the nation’s chemical infrastructure and safe- guard against the consequences of a terrorist attack on that infrastructure. The focus was on securing the nation’s infrastructure and economy against terrorist attack and other catastrophic loss by examining the chemical sup- ply chain to identify key chemicals and chemical processes whose disrup- tion could result in catastrophic levels of casualties or catastrophic eco- nomic damage. Specifically, this review considers • Major vulnerabilities and points of weakness in the chemical supply chain that could lead to catastrophic consequences; • The likely impact of a significant disruption in the supply of these chemicals and processes; • Actions (procedures, policies, technology deployment) to help pre- vent disruption in the supply of these chemicals and processes, and to miti- gate loss and injury should such disruption occur; • Incentives and disincentives that affect private sector decisions to take preventive and mitigating actions; and ix