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Technological Risk Assessment NATO ASI Series Advanced Science Institutes Series A Series presenting the results of activities sponsored by the NATO Science Committee, which aims at the dissemination of advanced scientific and technological knowledge, with a view to strengthening links between scientific communities. The Series is published by an international board of publishers in conjunotion with the NATO Scientific Affairs Division A Life Sciences Plenum Publishing Corporation B Physics London and New York C Mathematical and D. Reidel Publishing Company Physical Sciences Dordrecht and Boston D Behavioural and Martinus Nijhoff Publishers Social Sciences The Hague/Boston/Lancaster E Applied Sciences F Computer and Springer-Verlag Systems Sciences Berlin/Heidelberg/New York G Ecological Sciences ~ Series E: Applied Sciences - No. 81 Technological Risk Assessment edited by Paolo F. Ricci Leonard A. Sagan Chris G. Whipple Electrical Power Research Institute Palo Alto, CA 94303 USA 1984 Martinus Nijhoff Publishers The Hague I Boston I Lancaster Published in cooperation with NATO Scientific Affairs Division Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Technological Risk Assessment, Erice, Sicily, Italy, May 20-31, 1981 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data NATO Advanced Study Institute on Technological Riek Assessment (1981 : Erice, Italy) Technological risk assessment. (NATO advanced science institutes series. Series E, Applied sciences ; no. 81) "Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Technological Risk Assessment, Erice, Sicily, Italy, May 20-31, 1981"--T.p. verso. 1. Technology assessment--Congresses. 2. Risk-- Congresses. I. Ricci, Paolo F. II. Sagan, Leonard A. III. Whipple, Chris G. IV. Title. V. Series. T174.5.N37 19a1 363.1 84-4105 ISBN-13: 978-94-009-6157-9 e-ISBN-13: 978-94-009-6155-5 DOI: 10.1007/ 978-94-009-6155-5 Distributors for the United States and Canada: Kluwer Boston, Inc., 190 Old Derby Street, Hingham, MA 02043, USA Distributors for all other countries: Kluwer Academic Publishers Group, Distribution Center, P.O. Box 322, 3300 AH Dordrecht, The Netherlands All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publishers, Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, P.O. Box 566, 2501 CN The Hague, The Netherlands Copyright © 1984 by Martinus Nijhoff Publishers, The Hague Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1984 v TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Health Risk Assessment Problems in Health Measurements for the Risk Assessor, L. A. Sagan 1 Issues Related to Carcinogenic Risk Assess- ment from Animal Bioassay Data, K. S. Cru~p 31 II. Engineering Risk Assessment Engineering Risk Analysis, U. E. Vesely 49 Quantities of Hazardous Materials, F. K. Farmer 35 The Wider I~plications of the Canvey Island Study: A Discussion, A. V. Cohen and B. G. Davies 101 Benefits and Risks of Industrial Development with Special Regard to the Field of Power Production, A. M. Angelini 111 III. Risk Evaluation and Management Principles for Saving and Valuing Lives, R. Zeckhauser and D. S. Shepard 133 Eight Frameworks for Regulation, L. Lave 169 A Comparison of Air Pollution Control Standards as Adopted in Various Industrial- ized Countries, A. Fontanella and G. Pinchera 191 Actual and Perceived Risk: A Review of the Literature, V. T. Covello 225 Psychological Aspects of Risk: The Assess- ment of Threat and Control, P. J. M. Stallen and A. Tomas 247 IV. References Risk Analysis and Technological Hazards: A Policy-Related Bibliography, V. T. Covello and M. Abernathy 233 VII PREFACE This volume describes the proceedin9s of a ~IATO Advanced Study Institute on Technological Risk Assessment, held ~1ay 20-31, 1981, at Erice, Sicily. The approach taken at the Erice meetin0 was to explore the multidisciplinary nature of risk assessment, rather than to focus on any single aspect or approach to risk assessment. This approach provided an overview of many different types of risk assessment \'Iork, as well as insilJht into how these different a~proaches are combined to provide esti~ates of risk. Additionally, understanding of the perception and public reaction to risk, and market and regulatory methods that lead to risk man- agement were major topics of the meetin~. All but two of the papers in this volume were presented at that meeting by lecturers or ~artici~ants; the papers by Drs. Lave and Vesely were added by the editors because they are excellent complements to the other ra~ers. Also included is a comprehensive bibliography on the policy-related risk literature; this was developed by Covello and Abernathy of the U.S. ~4ational Science Foundation program on Technology Assess~ent and Risk Analysis. In brief, the scientific questions addressed were: o How may technological risks be identified and their ma~ nitudes estimated? o How do people react to exposure to technological risk? By 'It/hat means is risk evaluated by individuals? VIII o Hhat are the societal processes for managing technol00ical risk? How and how well do these ~-rocesses I'lork? It is intended that these proceedinns represent a broad survey of risk assessment work," rather than a'more detailed study of any particular aspect of the subject. Even with this approach, several important risk assessment topics were unavoidably omitted. Had more time and resources been available, analysis of the transport and transformation of hazardous materials throul]h air, water, soil"and the food chai~ would be priority items; as it is, this topic receives a small bit of attention in the case his- tory report on the Canvey Island study. Similarly, the role of liability and insurance in risk manaIJement \'Jas not eX!Jlored. Little attention was given to environmental and ot~er impacts of technology (including property damage) that do not relilteto human health risk, yet clearly these impacts are of importance. Even thouah the focus of this meeting was broad, the scope and variety of risk assessment \'Iork is broader. These qualifications notwithstanding, most of the major research areas in risk analysis IIlere addressed to some del)ree. The material is roughly divided between the methods for risk estimation and for risk evaluation, and this reflects the equal weights given to these topics in the MATO meeting. The estima- tion of risk is addressed in the front of the book. Health risk assessment is the first addressed; L. Sagan provides a descriptive overview of the methods apnlied to assess risks to human health, and K. Crump describes the mathematical annroaches with which to model risk from exposure to harmful agents'. The engineering and physical sciences approaches to assess accident probabilities and consequences are described in H. Vesely's article, and illustrated by the Canvey Island (UK) analysis reported by F. R. Farmer and by A. Cohen and B. Davies. Professor Angelini's paper describes how electricity production choices between coal and nuclear power and siting decisiDns are addressed in Italy, as well as the difficulty and importance of trying to include the risk of energy supply disruptions into such decisions. The economics of risks are explored by L. Lave and by R. Zeckhauser and D. Shepard. Dr. Lave addresses various risk decision frameworks, and the role of economic analysis in these frameworks. Drs. Zeckhauser and Shepard address the difficult and sensitive question of how one considers analytically the question of determining resource allocations apolied to reducinn risks to life. In a related area, A. Fontanella and G. Pinchera provide an international comparison of approaches to control air pollution. IX There is much more to risk evaluation than economics and regulatory policy, as the two ~apers on the psychological aspects or"risk indicate. V. Covello gives an overview and a guide to this literature; Drs. Stallen and Tomas describe their research to explore the key determinants in individual reactions to various ty~es of risk. These papers hel~ one understand that for most people, the relevant measure of risk is far more comolex than an estimate of expected fatalities. The NATO Institute and this volume would not have been possible without the support and assistance of many people. Drs. Mario di Lullo and Craig Sinclair of NATO provided fundin~ for the meeting, as well as helpful advice regarding organization and conduct of the meeting and its arranaements. Or. Alberto Gabriele and his assistant, Pinola Savelli, directed the local operations of the Centre for Scientific Culture "Ettore ~1ajorana" in Erice, and any success accorded this NATO ASI is in large share due to his generous hos?itality and tireless attention to the many details in hosting such a meeting. Secretarial assis- tance for the meeting arrangements was provided by Nancy Lambert, and these proceedings were typed by Krista Frisch, Carol Levy, and Lenore Bartyzel; we thank them for their fine work. ~'le also thank our contributors for their papers, both at the meeting and in this volume. Hhile their papers do not indicate the colleagial atmosphere or lively discussions of the meeting, they do provide an overview of the risk analysis field by a notable list of experts. Finally, we thank the BrooKings Institution for allowing us to use Or. Lave's article, it is a chapter from his book, The Strategy of Social Regulation, pub- lished by Brookings in 1981. Paolo Ricci Leonard Sagan Chris Hhipple Palo Alto, California January, 1983 Health Measupements PROBlEr·1S IN HEALTH flEASURErIENTS FOR THE RISK ASSESSOR l. A. Sagan Electric Power Research Institute Palo Alto, California 94303 1. INTRODUCTION Uhen in the past a new product, industry or agent was intro- duced into widespread use, there was little effort or felt need to predict or anticipate possible consequences to health that might be associated with that innovation. One wonders how the auto- mobile might have been accepted if it had been known .. that its use would be at the price of 50,000 lives per year in the United States alone, nevermind the much larger number of injuries, both transient and permanent. We no longer are willing to accept new products on a "\'Jait and see" basis. The public wants to knO\~ about such risks before hand. In an affluent society such as ours, the benefits of technology are no longer so irresistable that we are willing to overlook possible costs, particularly when those costs are to health and when such costs are likely to be subtle and overlooked unless assiduously examined. I have, in the following short paper, attempted the dif- ficult task of assessing our ability to estimate the impact of technolo9Y on human health. I ask the difficult questions of not only what the qualitative nature of such effects may be, (e.g. cancer? heart disease? birth defects?) but also the quantitative probability of such an outcome, i.e., how likely are such effects to occur? These are issues of singular importance for the pro- fessional engaged in technological risk assessment, but they are also of importance to anyone who wants to know how to interpret the almost daily report of a newly di scovered threat to health. The material which follows draws upon the fields of tox- icology, pathology, epidemiology and genetics. It is not written
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