Table Of Content

Technological Forecasting and Social Change An International Journal Volume 49, Number 1, May 1995 Contents WILLIS W. HARMAN Issues Paper #13 Global Dilemmas and the Plausibility of (Sausalito, CA) Whole-System Change AHTI A. SALO Decomposition in the Assessment of Judgmental Probability (Mannheim, Germany) Forecasts and DEREK W. BUNN (London, U.K.) S. C. BHARGAVA A Generalized Form of the Fisher-Pry Model of Technological (Delhi, India) Substitution JONG-TSONG CHIANG Technology Policy Paradigms and Intellectual Property (Taipei, Taiwan) Strategies: Three National Models JILL S. MANNERING Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting Frequency in (Seattle, WA) California: An Exploratory Analysis and PATRICIA L. MOKHTARIAN (Davis, CA) KATHRYN M. KELM The Response of Capital Markets to the R&D Process (Emporia, KS) V. K. NARAYANAN and GEORGE E. PINCHES (Lawrence, KS) L. R. P. REAVILL A Systems-Science-Based Analysis of the Factors that Influence (London, U.K.) and Aggravate the Effects of Flooding in Bangladesh and T. G. RAHMAN (Hong Kong) Book Reviews HAROLD A. LINSTONE Skunk Works: A Personal Memoir of My Years at Lockheed (Portland, OR) (Ben R. Rich and Leo Janos) BRIAN J. L. BERRY The Challenge of the 21st Century: Managing Technology and (Dallas, TX) Ourselves in a Shrinking World (Harold A. Linstone with Ian I. Mitroff) Technological Forecasting and Social Change An International Journal Volume 49, Number 2, June 1995 Special Issue Japan Confronts the 21st Century Shuzaburo Takeda, Guest Editor Contents SHUZABURO TAKEDA The Task and Challenge for Japan in the 21st Century: 113 (Hiratsuka-city, Japan) An Introduction CHIHIRO WATANABE The Feedback Loop between Technology and Economic 127 (Laxenburg, Austria) Development: An Examination of Japanese Industry SHUMPEI KUMON Can Japan Succeed in “‘Chigyo-ka” (Intelprise-formation)? 147 (Tokyo, Japan) YUMI AKIMOTO A New Perspective on the Eco-Industry 165 (Tokyo, Japan) YOSHITAKA NITTA Challenging the Human Crisis: “The Trilemma” 175 and SUSUMU YODA (Tokyo, Japan) HIROYUKI YOSHIKAWA Manufacturing and the 21st Century— 195 (Tokyo, Japan) Intelligent Manufacturing Systems and the Renaissance of the Manufacturing Industry JOICHI AOI Technological Prospects toward the 21st Century: 215 (Tokyo, Japan) The Case of Toshiba Corporation Book Reviews HAROLD A. LINSTONE The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out 229 (Portland, OR) of Balance (Laurie Garrett) HUGH J. MISER A Systems-Based Approach to Policymaking (Kenyon B. De 233 (Farmington, CT) Greene, Ed.) Technological Forecasting and Social Change An International Journal Volume 49, Number 3, July 1995 Contents ALAN L. PORTER _ Technology Opportunities Analysis 237 (Atlanta, GA) and MICHAEL J. DETAMPEL (Green Bay, WI) NAMWOON KIM _ Determining the Going Market Value of a Business in an 257 (Hong Kong, UK) Emerging Information Technology Industry: The Case VIJAY MAHAJAN _ of the Cellular Communications Industry and RAJENDRA K. SRIVASTAVA (Austin, TX) MARK W. SPEECE = Application of a Multi-Generation Diffusion Model to Milk 281 (Bangkok, Thailand) Container Technology and DOUGLAS L. MACLACHLAN (Seattle, WA) MARK E. DOMS _ Energy Intensity, Electricity Consumption, and Advanced 297 (Washington, DC) Manufacturing-Technology Usage and TIMOTHY DUNNE (Norman, OK) JAMES P. GANDER Academic Research and Teaching Productivities: A Case Study 311 (Salt Lake City, UT) Columns JOSEPH F. COATES From My Perspective Technology Assessment: Here Today, 321 (Washington, DC) Gone Tomorrow TOM MANDEL ET AL. From My Perspective Tom Mandel and Friends: A Death 325 (Mountain View, CA) On-Line Shows a Cyberspace with Heart and Soul Book Reviews HAROLD A. LINSTONE ~ Research with a View to Implementation and Case Studies 329 (Lake Oswego, OR) in Research with a View to Implementation (D.J. Gouws) HAROLD A. LINSTONE _ Predicting the Future (Leo Howe and Alan Wain, Eds.) 331 (Lake Oswego, OR) Announcements Erratum Volume 49 Author Index Volume 49 Book Index Volume 49 Subject Index Volume 49 Contents