Table Of Content

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 45, 315(1994) Author Index—Volume 45 Backoff, R.W., 131 Kostoff, R.N., 189 Kouzmin, A., 119 Coates, J.F., 103, 307 Collingridge, D., 169 Mahajan, V., 221 Marcovitch, J., | Edler, D., 255 Maruyama, M., 93 Miser, H.J., 299 Franses, P.H., 287 Mokhtarian, P., 275 Muller, E., 221 Genus, A., 169 Gifford, J.L., 111 Niwa, H., 79 Goonatilake, S., 63 Nutt, P.C., 131 Goulet, D., 47 Olszewski, P., 275 Halal, W.E., 207 Ribakova, T., 255 James, P., 169 Sharif, N., 151 Jarman, A., 119 Shin, T., 31 Johnson, B.B., |! Shrivastava, P., 237 Kim, H., 31 Yamaguchi, K., 79 Book Index—Volume 45 Gilder, G., Life After Television: The Coming Development Through Transformation of Media and American Telecommunications (Oscar Hauptman Life (William E. Halal), 219 and Moses Kiggundu), 213 Preer, R.W., The Emergence of Technopolis (Ariel Dinar), 313 Henderson, H., Paradigms in Progress: Life Beyond Economics (Marvin Adelson), Theobald, R., Turning the Century: Personal 109 and Organizational Strategies for Your Changed World (Harold A. Linstone), Parker, E.B., Hudson, H.E., Dillman, D.A., 211 Strover, S., and Williams, F., Electronic Thompson, F.G., Looking Back on the Future Byways: State Policies for Rural (Theodore Modis), 217 TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE 45, 316-320 (1994) Subject Index— Volume 45 Accident effects, escalation of, 237 Compassion, 105, 211 Adaptability, urban transportation planning Concentrated expertise, North Sea oil process and, 111 development and, 169 Africa, technological assessment and, 47 Conflicting perspectives, 212 Age, telecommuting and, 285 Conflict resolution, 105 Age of Light, 109 Consensus stage, technological development in Alaska Wednesday Roundtable, 212 Korea and, 31 Amateurs, flawed forecasts and, 307 Contingency-based policy, disaster management American life, transformation of, 219 and, 119 Antimaterialism, 106 Contradictions, industrial crises and, 237 Ark experiment, 218 Coordination stage, technological development Armed forces, technological assessment and, 47 in Korea and, 31 Asia, technological assessment and, 47 Corporate executives, in management of Australia, disaster management and, | 19 economic infrastructure, 208 Corruption, 212 Bhopal crisis, lessons from, 237 Cost-benefit analysis, federal research impact Bibliometrics, federal research impact evaluation and, 189 evaluation and, 189 Cost overruns, North Sea oil development and, Borderless global market, innovation diffusion 169 in, 221 Customer-support centers, 209 Bottom-up approach technological development in Korea and, 31 Decentralized market systems, 208 transition from hierarchy and, 210 Decision makers, systems analysis and, 299 Brazil, technology futures in, | Demand-pull phenomenon, 93 Buddhism, 104 Democratization of belief, 106 Business strategies, in developing countries, 151 Demographic variables, telecommuting and, 275 California Denial, flawed forecasts and, 308 Silicon Valley and, 313 Deregulation, integration of business and telecommuting frequency and impacts for technology strategies and, 151 state employees, 275 Developing countries Canada, futures movement in, 217 integrating business and technology strategies Capability development, integration of business in, 151 and technology strategies and, 151 technology assessment and, 63 Capital intensity, North Sea oil development Development delays, North Sea oil development and, 169 and, 169 Central planning, transition from hierarchy and, Development flower, institutions and methods, 207 47 Centralized decision making, North Sea oil Dialogue, effective systems analysis work and, development and, 169 299 Children, telecommuting and, 275 Diffusion Chrestomathy, of flawed forecasts, 307 in borderless global market, 231 Collaborative synergy, leadership encourages, of industrial robots, 255 208 Disaster management, as contingent meta-policy Committment stage, technological development analysis, 119 in Korea and, 31 Communications technology, mastery over, 47 Ecofeminism, 110 Community development, in Japan, 79 Ecology, 106 Community participation, models for, 212 Egocentrism, 212 SUBJECT INDEX—VOLUME 45 Electronic byways,rural development through transition to future, 211 telecommunications and, 213 Employment, industrial robots and, 255 Gatekeepers, technological, 47 Enterprise level, technological innovation Gender planning and, | technology assessment in developing Entrepreneurship, 209, 313 countries and, 63 Environmental attitudes, technology assessment telecommuting and, 275 in developing countries and, 63 Global marketplace Epistemological types, heterogeneity and, 94 innovation diffusion in, 221 Ethics integration of business and technology systems analysis and, 299 Strategies and, 151 technology assessment in developing transition from hierarchy and, 207 countries and, 63 Global policy, advice and planning capabilities, Euro America, technology assessment and, 63 119 European Community, 1992 unification of, 221 Global thinking, 105 Expert systems, disaster management and, 119 Global village, 106 Ex-post research assessment, federal research Gompertz curves, with seasonality, 287 impact evaluation and, 189 Government policy, community development in External enterprises, 208 Japan and, 79 Exxon Valdez crisis, lessons from, 237 Greed, 212 Greenhouse effect, 119 Facility size and permanence, urban G-type epistemological type, heterogeneity and, transportation planning process and, 95 111 Fanaticism, 212 HAN project, technological development and, Federal government, disaster management and, 31 119 Hazardous systems, managing, 237 Federal Republic of Germany, industrial robots Health and healing, 106 and, 255 Heterogeneity, interwoven and interactive, 93 Federal research impact evaluation, quantitative Hierarchy, transition from, 207 and qualitative, 189 History in action, 213 Fiber optic networks, 220 Holism, 105 Fishing, off Canadian Atlantic coast, 217 Human contradictions, industrial crises and, 237 Flat structures, 207 Flexibility Image leadership, integration of business and North Sea oil development and, 169 technology strategies and, 151 urban transportation planning process and, Independent oil companies, North Sea oii 111 development and, 169 Flexible organizations, 207 Indigenous technology capability, Korea and, 31 Focal points, participatory technology Individual perception of risk, industrial crises assessment and, 47 and, 237 Forecasts, flawed, 307 Industrial age, Japan and, 79 Foresight activities, technological development Industrial crises, technological and in Korea and, 31 organizational roots of, 237 Free enterprise, inside large organizations, 208 Information age Free markets, future of, 211 Japanese community development in, 79 Fundamental technologies, Korea and, 31 new form of organization evolving for, 207 Futures studies Infrastructural requirements, North Sea oil flawed forecasts and, 307 development and, 169 futures orientation and, 104 Innovation looking back on future, 217 borderless global market and, 221 national development and, 1 technology futures and, | SUBJECT INDEX—VOLUME 45 Institutional arrangements, participatory Meditation, 104 technology assessment and, 47 Me-now syndrome, 212 Institutional conflict, disaster management and, Meta-policy analysis, disaster management as 119 contingent, 119 Integration, of business and technology Metastructures, market, 210 Strategies, 151 Misplaced expertise, flawed forecasts and, 309 Interactive heterogeneity, in 21st century, 93 Motherhood recommendation, 214 Interconnection of societies, 106 Multinational oil companies, North Sea oil Internal customers, 207 development and, 169 Internal enterprise units, organization composed Mystical experience, 104 of, 208 Internal LBOs, 207 National levei Internal markets, 207 development in Brazil and, | Interwoven heterogeneity, in 21st century, 93 technological development in Korea and, 31 Intrapreneuring, 207 technological innovation planning and, | Intuition, 104 Neglect of constraints, flawed forecasts and, 310 Island-state survival, water resource planning Negotiation, 105 and, 119 Networks, 207 I-type epistemological type, heterogeneity and, New Age concepts, 103 95 New-thinking economic paradigm, community development in Japan and Japan, new-thinking economic paradigm and, 79 79 Niche, integration of business and Key technologies, Korea and, 31 technology strategies and, 151 Knowledge, expressions of, 189 Nonprofit organizations, transformation Korea, HAN project and, 31 of, 131 North Sea oil, inflexibility in Lack of imagination, flawed forecasts and, 309 development of, 169 Latin America, technological assessment and, 47 Ohne-mich-ism, 93 Laws of the macrocosm and microcosm, 219 Oil fields, inflexibility in development Lead time, North Sea oil development and, 169 of, 169 Lean management, 207 Operations level, technological Legislative process, future of, 211 innovation planning and, | Leontief-Duchin-Szyld dynamic input-output Optimism, excessive, flawed forecasts model, improved, industrial robot effect and, 310 on employment and, 255 Organizational contradictions, industrial Life crises and, 237 after television, 219 Organizational economy, 208 beyond economics, 109 Organizational strategies, transition to Limited expertise, flawed forecasts and, 309 future and, 211 Local government, disaster management and, Overestimation, flawed forecasts and, 119 308 Local knowledge systems, technology Overspecification, flawed forecasts and, assessment in developing countries and, 310 63 Pacific Basin region, water resource Massachusetts Route 128, as technopolis, 313 planning and, 119 Mechanical extrapolations of trends, flawed Pantheism, 106 forecasts and, 310 Paradigms in progress, 109 Media, transformation of, 219 Participatory technology assessment, Mediation, 105 institutions and methods, 47 SUBJECT INDEX—VOLUME 45 Partnership, systems analysis and, 299 Simple transfer of concepts, technology Pasadena project, 212 assessment and, 63 Peace, 105 Skill requirements, industrial robots and, 255 Peer review, federal research impact evaluation Social factors, technology assessment in and, 189 developing countries and, 63 Personal computers, telecommuting and, 275 Social organizations, technology assessment in Personal strategies, transition to future and, 211 developing countries and, 63 Population growth, in poorest countries, 217 Social Security system, future of, 211 Post-perestroika migration, from east to west, 93 Special task forces, technological development Preconditions, industrial crises and, 237 in Korea and, 31 Prices Spiritual awareness, 104 integration of business and technology State government, disaster management and, 119 strategies and, 151 State policies, for rural development through North Sea oil development and, 169 telecommunications, 213 Private sector enterprises Strategic management, in transformation of integration of business and technology public and third sector organizations, strategies and, 151 131 transformation of, 131 Strategy progression path, integration of Privatization, integration of business and business and technology strategies and, technology strategies and, 151 151 Problem situations, systems analysis and, 299 S-type epistemological type, heterogeneity and, Product-oriented technologies, Korea and, 31 95 Profit centers, 209 Subordination, of technology to finalities, 47 Prophecy, 105 Success, new measures of, 211 Public organizations, transformation of, 131 Supraorganizational sense of mission, North Sea Public sector enterprises oil development and, 169 developing high-tech centers and, 313 Systemic contradictions, industrial crises and, integration of business and technology 237 strategies and, 151 Systems analysis, as dialogue, 299 R & D, technological development in Korea and, Taxes, future of, 211 31 Technological contradictions, industrial crises Reengineering, 207 and, 237 Research review, federal research impact Technology assessment evaluation and, 189 developing countries and, 63 Research selection, federal research impact participatory, 47 evaluation and, 189 Technology exploiter, integration of business Resistance to change, 212 and technology strategies and, 151 Risk, industrial crises and, 237 Technology extender, integration of business Robots, industrial, 255 and technology strategies and, 151 Rural development, through Technology follower, integration of business telecommunications, 213 and technology strategies and, 151 Technology futures, national development and, | Science and technology policies Technology leader, integration of business and Korea and, 31 technology strategies and, 151 national development and, | Technology strategies, in developing countries, Seasons, Gompertz curves and, 287 151 Sectoral level, technological innovation Technopolis, emergence of, 313 planning and, | Telecommunications, state policies for rural Secular religion, 106 development through, 213 Sensorium, 105 Telecommuting, by State of California Silicon Valley, as technopolis, 313 employees, 275 320 SUBJECT INDEX—VOLUME 45 Telecomputers, 219 Uncertainty, in urban transportation planning Telefuture, 219 process, 111 Television, life after, 219 Underestimation, flawed forecasts and, 308 Unexamined assumptions, flawed forecasts and, Tender-minded people, 103 308 Third sector organizations, transformation of, Unification, market penetration and, 221 131 Unit size, North Sea oil development and, 169 Third World nations, technological assessment Urban transportation, policy and planning, | 11 and, 47 Top-down approach, technological development Value, integration of business and technology in Korea and, 31 strategies and, 151 Tough-minded people, 103 Vicious circles of behavior, industrial crises and, 237 Transformation Videocassette recorders, diffusion of, 221 of media and American life, 219 Virtual corporations, 207 need for, 103 of public and third sector organizations, 131 Water resource planning, disaster management Transition, to future, 211 and, 119 Tripartate-dialogue concept, systems analysis Weapons technology, mastery over, 47 and, 299 Western nations, technology assessment and, 63