Systems Engineering and Artificial Intelligence PDF
Preview Systems Engineering and Artificial Intelligence
William F. Lawless · Ranjeev Mittu · Donald A. Sofge · Thomas Shortell · Thomas A. McDermott Editors Systems Engineering and Artificial Intelligence Systems Engineering and Artificial Intelligence · · William F. Lawless Ranjeev Mittu · · Donald A. Sofge Thomas Shortell Thomas A. McDermott Editors Systems Engineering and Artificial Intelligence Editors WilliamF.Lawless RanjeevMittu PaineCollege InformationTechnologyDivision Augusta,GA,USA UnitedStatesNavalResearchLaboratory Washington,DC,USA DonaldA.Sofge UnitedStatesNavalResearchLaboratory ThomasShortell Washington,DC,USA LockheedMartinSpaceSystems KingofPrussia,PA,USA ThomasA.McDermott StevensInstituteofTechnology Hoboken,NJ,USA ISBN978-3-030-77282-6 ISBN978-3-030-77283-3 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-77283-3 ©SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2021 ThisisaU.S.governmentworkandnotundercopyrightprotectionintheU.S.;foreigncopyright protectionmayapply AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartofthematerialisconcerned,specif- icallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseofillustrations,recitation,broadcasting,reproduction onmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionorinformationstorageandretrieval,elec- tronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafter developed. 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ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Preface We began this book by asking representatives from Systems Engineering (SE) to participatewithusinanAssociationfortheAdvancementofArtificialIntelligence (AAAI)SymposiumintheSpringof2020.Weaddressedourrequestforparticipation torepresentativesoftheInternationalCouncilonSystemsEngineering(INCOSE). Thesymposiumwasintendedtoadvancethescienceofautonomoushuman-machine teams(A-HMTs).Aftersystemsengineersagreedtoparticipate,weincluded“sys- tems” in our call. The symposium was scheduled to occur at Stanford University duringMarch23–25,2020.OuragendaincludedAIscientists,systemengineers,and interestedparticipantsandorganizationsfromaroundtheworld.Unfortunately,the Covid-19pandemicintervened.ButAAAIgaveustwoopportunities:holdtheMarch eventasscheduledvirtually,orhaveaReplacementSymposiumintheWashington, DCarea.Wetookadvantageofbothoffers. WegaveourscheduledspeakersthechoiceofparticipatinginthevirtualSpring Symposium,theFallReplacementSymposium,orboth.TheagendafortheSpring Symposiumwasreducedtounder2days,roughlyreplicatedfortheReplacementFall Symposium,whichalsobecameavirtualevent.However,thenumberofparticipants forboththeSpringandFalleventsslightlyexceeded100,alargeraudiencethanwe wouldhaveexpectedtoattendinpersonatStanford. Bothsymposiahadthesametitle:1“AIwelcomessystemsEngineering:Towards thescienceofinterdependenceforautonomoushuman-machineteams.”2 Theorig- inallistoftopicsinourcallfortheSpringSymposiumhadsoughtpotentialspeakers togivetalkson“AIandmachinelearning,autonomy;systemsengineering;Human- Machine Teams (HMT); machine explanations of decisions; and context.” For the Replacement Symposium, we revised our list of topics for potential speakers to consider in addition: “machine explanations of decisions.” For both symposia, we sought participants from across multiple disciplines who were willing to work togethertocontributetotheadvancementofAIinwelcomingSEtobuildascienceof 1https://aaai.org/Symposia/Spring/sss20symposia.php#ss03. 2MichaelWollowskidesignedandbuiltoursupplementarywebsite([email protected]), foundathttps://sites.google.com/view/scienceofinterdependence. v vi Preface interdependenceforautonomoushuman-machineteamsandsystems.Ourthinking continuedtoevolve,leadingustonamethetitleofthisbook,“SystemsEngineering andArtificialIntelligence.” The list of topics in this book expanded well beyond the listed agendas for our twosymposia.Thatsaid,thethemeofsystemsandAIhascontinuedtomotivatethe chaptersinthisbook.Ourgoalforthesymposiumwas,andforthisbookis,todeal withthecurrentstateoftheartinautonomyandartificialintelligence(AI)froma systemsperspectiveforthebettermentofsociety. Inadvertisingforoursymposiumandthenforthechaptersinthisbook,wesought contributors who could discuss the meaning, value, and interdependent effects on contextwherevertheseAI-drivenmachinesinteractwithhumanstoformautonomous human-machineteamsorsystems.Wehadcalledforextendedabstracts(1–2pages) or longer manuscripts of up to 8 pages in length. Our plan was to publish lengthy manuscriptsaschaptersinabookafterthesymposium.Wehopethatthisresulting editedbookwilladvancethenextgenerationofsystemsthatarebeingdesignedto includeautonomoushumansandmachinesoperatingasteamsandsystemsinterde- pendentlywithAI.Byfocusingonthegapsintheresearchperformedworldwideand addressedinthisbook,wehopethatautonomoushuman-machinesystemswherever appliedwillbeusedsafely. Inthiseditedvolume,weexplorehowAIisexpandingopportunitiestoincrease its impact on society, which will significantly increase with autonomous human- machineteamsandsystems.Withthisbook,weoffertothecuriousandprofessional alikeareviewofthetheories,models,methods,andapplications ofAIsystemsto provideabetterunderstanding,amoreintegratedperspectiveofwhatisinplayand at stake from the autonomous humans-machine teams and systems soon to cause majordisruptions.Butouraimwiththisbookistohelpsociety,practitioners,and engineerstopreparefortheextraordinarychangescoming. Machine Learning (ML) is a subset of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Already exceeding trillions of dollars invested, ML and AI have already wrought change acrossmanyfieldswithevengreaterimpactsyettocome.Asautonomousmachines arrive on the scene, some of the new problems that have accompanied them are discussed in this book. For example, Judea Pearl warned AI scientists to “build machinesthatmakesenseofwhatgoesonintheirenvironment”tobeabletocommu- nicatewithhumans.Self-drivingvehicleshavealreadybeeninvolvedinfatalities,and yetAI/MLisstilltryingtoexplaintohumansthecontextswithinwhichitoperates. This edited book reflects our belief that only an interdisciplinary approach can fullyaddressPearl’swarning.Atourtwosymposia,wehadpaperspresentedbyAI computerscientists,systemsengineers,socialscientists,entrepreneurs,philosophers, andotherspecialistsaddresshowhumansmakedecisionsinlargesystems;howthey determinecontextespeciallywhenfacingunfamiliarenvironmentsorunanticipated events;howautonomousmachinesmaybetaughttounderstandsharedcontexts;and how human-machine teams may interdependently affect human awareness, other teams,systems,andsociety,andbeaffectedconsequently.Forexample,intheUber self-drivingfatalityofapedestrianin2018,thecarshouldhavealerteditsteammate, a human operator, of an object in the road ahead. As with the case of the Uber Preface vii fatality,tobestprotectsociety,weneedtoknowwhathappensifthecontextshared byhuman-machineteamsisincomplete,malfunctions,orbreaksdown. Thisbookalsoincludesoneofthefirst,ifnottheveryfirst,chapterscoauthoredby anartificiallyintelligentcoauthor.HernameisCharlie.Herfellowcoauthorsaddress thevalueofrecognizingCharlieandtreatingherwithrespecttobuildacontextthat issharedbyallparticipants.Forautonomousteamsandsystemsinvolvinghumans andmachines,constructingasharedcontextisfundamental,meaningthatjointinter- pretationsofrealitymustbeaddressed,requiringtheinterdisciplinaryapproachthat wehaveadopted,sothatwetoocanlearnfromCharlie,asignificantmomentforus, ourfellowcontributors,andwehopeforyouthereader,too. TheOrganizersofOurSymposium William F. Lawless, ([email protected]), corresponding, Professor, Math- ematics & Psychology, Paine College, GA, Special Topics Editor, Entropy, and ReviewBoard,ONR(AI;CommandDecisionMaking). RanjeevMittu([email protected]),BranchHead,InformationManage- ment&DecisionArchitecturesBranch,InformationTechnologyDivision,U.S. NavalResearchLaboratory,Washington,DC. Donald Sofge ([email protected]), Computer Scientist, Distributed Autonomous Systems Group, Navy Center for Applied Research in Artificial Intelligence,NavalResearchLaboratory,Washington,DC. ThomasShortell([email protected]),CertifiedSystemsEngineering Professional,LockheedMartinSpaceSystems,KingofPrussia,PA. ThomasA.McDermott([email protected]),DeputyDirector,Systems EngineeringResearchCenter,StevensInstituteofTechnology,Hoboken,NJ. ParticipantsatOurSymposium We had several more participants than the speakers who attended our symposium. Wewantedspeakersandparticipantswhocouldassessthefoundations,metrics,or applications of autonomous AI/ML, human-machine teams, and systems and how these teams and systems affect or may be affected themselves. We kept both of thesymposiaopen-endedforthetopicsandforthisbook.Weconsideredallpapers submittedforthetwosymposiaandseveralafterwardsforthebookaslongastheyhad asystemsperspective.Accompaniedbycontributionsfromnon-symposiumpartici- pants,too,ourgoalthenandnowistoadvanceAItheoryandconceptstoimprovethe performanceofautonomoushuman-machineteamsandsystemstoimprovesociety. viii Preface ProgramCommitteeforOur2020AAAISymposia (cid:129) ManishaMisra,UConnecticut,Ph.D.graduatestudent,manisha.uconn@gmail. com (cid:129) Shu-HengChen,Taiwan,[email protected] (cid:129) Beth Cardier, Sirius-Beta, VA; School Health Professions, Eastern Virginia MedicalSchool,[email protected] (cid:129) Michael Floyd, Lead AI Scientist, Knexus Research, michael.floyd@knexusres earch.com (cid:129) BorisGalitsky,ChiefScientist,OracleCorp.,[email protected] (cid:129) MattJohnson,InstituteforHumanandMachineCognition,Researchscientistin human-machineteamingfortechnologies,[email protected] (cid:129) GeorgiyLevchuk,AptimaFellow,SeniorPrincipal,Simulation&Optimization Engineer,[email protected] (cid:129) Patrick J. Martin, MITRE Corporation, Autonomous Systems Engineer, pmarti [email protected] (cid:129) ManishaMishra,UniversityofConnecticut,SystemsEngineering,manisha.uco [email protected] (cid:129) Krishna Pattipati, University of Connecticut, Board of Trustees Distinguished Professor,ProfessorinSystemsEngineering. AftertheAAAI-SpringandFallReplacementSymposiain2020werecompleted, speakers were asked to revise their talks into manuscripts for the chapters in this book.Afterthesymposium,otherauthorswhodidnotparticipateinthesymposium were also invited and they agreed to participate. The following individuals were responsiblefortheproposalsubmittedtoSpringerforthebookbeforethesymposia, for the divergence between the topics considered by the two, and for editing this bookthathasresulted. Augusta,GA,USA WilliamF.Lawless Washington,DC,USA RanjeevMittu Washington,DC,USA DonaldA.Sofge KingofPrussia,PA,USA ThomasShortell Hoboken,NJ,USA ThomasA.McDermott Contents 1 Introduction to “Systems Engineering and Artificial Intelligence”andtheChapters ................................. 1 WilliamF.Lawless, RanjeevMittu, DonaldA.Sofge, ThomasShortell,andThomasA.McDermott 2 RecognizingArtificialIntelligence:TheKeytoUnlocking HumanAITeams ............................................. 23 PatrickCummings, NathanSchurr, AndrewNaber, Charlie, andDanielSerfaty 3 ArtificialIntelligenceandFutureofSystemsEngineering ......... 47 ThomasA.McDermott,MarkR.Blackburn,andPeterA.Beling 4 EffectiveHuman–ArtificialIntelligenceTeaming ................. 61 NancyJ.CookeandWilliamF.Lawless 5 Toward System Theoretical Foundations for Human– AutonomyTeams .............................................. 77 MarcSteinberg 6 SystemsEngineeringforArtificialIntelligence-basedSystems: AReviewinTime ............................................. 93 JamesLlinas,HeshamFouad,andRanjeevMittu 7 Human-Autonomy Teaming for the Tactical Edge: The ImportanceofHumansinArtificialIntelligenceResearch andDevelopment .............................................. 115 KristinE.Schaefer, BrandonPerelman, JoeRexwinkle, JonroyCanady, CatherineNeubauer, NicholasWaytowich, GabriellaLarkin, KatherineCox, MichaelGeuss, GregoryGremillion, JasonS.Metcalfe, ArwenDeCostanza, andAmarMarathe ix x Contents 8 Re-orientingTowardtheScienceoftheArtificial:Engineering AISystems ................................................... 149 StephenRussell,BrianJalaian,andIraS.Moskowitz 9 The Department of Navy’s Digital Transformation withtheDigitalSystemArchitecture,StranglerPatterns, Machine Learning, and Autonomous Human–Machine Teaming ...................................................... 175 MatthewSheehanandOlegYakimenko 10 Digital Twin Industrial Immune System: AI-driven CybersecurityforCriticalInfrastructures ....................... 197 MichaelMylrea, MattNielsen, JustinJohn, andMasoudAbbaszadeh 11 AFractionalBrownianMotionApproachtoPsychological andTeamDiffusionProblems .................................. 213 IraS.Moskowitz,NoelleL.Brown,andZviGoldstein 12 Human–Machine Understanding: The Utility of Causal ModelsandCounterfactuals ................................... 247 PaulDeignan 13 AnExecutive forAutonomous Systems,InspiredbyFear MemoryExtinction ............................................ 259 MattGarcia,TedGoranson,andBethCardier 14 Contextual Evaluation of Human–Machine Team Effectiveness .................................................. 283 EugeneSantosJr, ClementNyanhongo, HienNguyen, KeumJooKim,andGregoryHyde 15 HumanityintheEraofAutonomousHuman–machineTeams ..... 309 Shu-HengChen 16 Transforming the System of Military Medical Research: An Institutional History of the Department of Defense’s (DoD)FirstElectronicInstitutionalReviewBoardEnterprise ITSystem .................................................... 333 J.WoodandWilliamF.Lawless 17 CollaborativeCommunicationandIntelligentInterruption Systems ...................................................... 349 NiaPeters,MargaretUgolini,andGregoryBowers 18 Shifting Paradigms in Verification and Validation ofAI-EnabledSystems:ASystems-TheoreticPerspective ......... 363 NiloofarShadab,AdityaU.Kulkarni,andAlejandroSalado
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