System Dynamics: Modelling and Simulation PDF
Preview System Dynamics: Modelling and Simulation
Springer Texts in Business and Economics Bilash Kanti Bala Fatimah Mohamed Arshad Kusairi Mohd Noh System Dynamics Modelling and Simulation Springer Texts in Business and Economics More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/10099 Bilash Kanti Bala (cid:129) Fatimah Mohamed Arshad (cid:129) Kusairi Mohd Noh System Dynamics Modelling and Simulation BilashKantiBala FatimahMohamedArshad UniversityPutraMalaysia UniversityPutraMalaysia Serdang,Selangor,DarulEhsan Serdang,Selangor,DarulEhsan Malaysia Malaysia KusairiMohdNoh UniversityPutraMalaysia Serdang,Selangor,DarulEhsan Malaysia ISSN2192-4333 ISSN2192-4341 (electronic) SpringerTextsinBusinessandEconomics ISBN978-981-10-2043-8 ISBN978-981-10-2045-2 (eBook) DOI10.1007/978-981-10-2045-2 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016951454 #SpringerScience+BusinessMediaSingapore2017 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexempt fromtherelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthis book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained hereinorforanyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade. Printedonacid-freepaper ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbySpringerNature TheregisteredcompanyisSpringerNatureSingaporePteLtd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #22-06/08 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore Foreword Theworld,today,ispassingthroughaperiodofgreatturmoil,socially,politically andenvironmentally,inspiteofthenumeroustechnologicalwondersthataretaking placealmosteveryday.Oneneedstotakeasystemsviewoftheinfluencingfactors andtheirinteractionsandimpactsinordertofindtherootcausesoftheseproblems andtoarriveatviablepolicyoptions.Systemdynamicsprovidessuchanapproach. The book authored by Professor Bala, Professor Fatimah and Professor Noh presentstheprinciplesofsystemdynamicsinverysimplelanguageandillustrates itsusewiththehelpoffivereal-lifecasestudies. Thisbook is dividedintotwoparts.The firstpartofthebook presents, inavery simple way and starting with the fundamental principles, how complex interactions among the interacting forces can be modelled by capturing their cause–effect interrelations through dynamic models, how the models can be simulated and evaluated to depict reality and how policy interventions can be tested for testing theirviability.Althoughthematerialcoveredinthispartofthebookisnotnew,the examples supporting the theoretical nuances of the subject covering population growth, grain storage, food security, commodity production, food relief, crop live- stock,shrimpfarming,cropirrigationandpollutionareveryinterestingandappealing. In the second part of the book, the authors discuss case studies related to the areas of agriculture, aquaculture and environment in Bangladesh and Malaysia. BothhilsafishandriceareimportantfortheeconomyofBangladesh,justasfood security and cocoa production for Malaysia. The case study for solid waste man- agement is well chosen as it is a perennial problem in third-world countries. This partofthebookisillustrativeofthepowerofsystemdynamicsmethodologyasto howitcanaddressmanycomplexissuesoftodayveryeasily. I believe that a newcomer to the field of system dynamics will find the book extremelyusefulandwillbehighlymotivatedtousesystemdynamicsandsystems thinkinginunderstandingandaddressingtheissuesthatariseoutofthebehaviour ofsystemsthatareintegralpartoftheirlives. ProfessorofIndustrialEngineeringandManagement P.K.J.Mohapatra IndianInstituteofTechnology Kharagpur,WestBengal,India September2014 v Preface ThisbookSystemDynamics:ModellingandSimulationisatotallynewbookwith numerousexamplesandcasestudiesforbetterunderstandingthecomplexsystems and their changes through modelling and simulation to aid in policy formulation and developing management strategies for sustainable development. This book provides a comprehensive introduction to systems thinking and modelling of complex systems with application to agricultural, aquacultural, environmental andsocio-economicsystems.Also thisbook essentially providesthe principlesof system dynamics with numerous examples and a good number of case studies in agricultural,aquacultural,environmentalandsocio-economicsystems.Itcoversall aspects ofsystemdynamics starting fromsystemsthinkingtoparticipatorymodel buildingtoprovideatoolforpolicyplanning,andthemainfocusistoaidinpolicy design. This book has been written primarily for undergraduate and postgraduate coursesonsystemdynamics,systemsengineering,systemsimulation,agricultural systemsandmultidisciplinarycoursesonagricultural,aquacultural,environmental and socio-economic systems. This book can be adopted for courses in electrical engineering and computer science. It will also serve as an excellent reference for practicingsystemdynamists,systemdynamicsresearchersandpolicyplanners.Itis the outcome of several years of teaching and research in system dynamics modelling and simulation with applications in agricultural, aquacultural, environ- mental and socio-economic systems and also is an updated and a new book on principlesofsystemdynamics. This book covers the wide spectrum of system dynamics methodology of modellingandsimulationofcomplexsystems:systemsthinking,causaldiagrams, systemstructureofstock–flowdiagrams,parameterestimationandtestsforconfi- dence building in system dynamics models with a good number of worked-out examplesindiversefields usingSTELLA andVENSIM.Incase studies,problem statementwithdynamichypothesisisfollowedbycausalloopdiagrams,stock–flow diagrams, parameter estimation, model validation and policy design. Exercises havealsobeenincludedattheendofeachchapterforfurtherpractices. The authors have a great pleasure in expressing the acknowledgements which they owe to many persons in writing this book. Professor B K Bala warmly recognises the continuing debt to his teacher, Dr. Donald R. Drew, W. Thomas vii viii Preface Rice professor of systems engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, USA, who introduced him to system dynamics at the Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand. Thu authors also express sincere acknow- ledgements to Professor P K J Mohapatra, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, India who is the Father of System Dynamics in India has written the foreword of this book. The authors have a great pleasure in expressing the acknowledgements to Dr. Serm Janjai, Department of Physics, Silpakorn Univer- sity,NakhonPathom,Thailand,forhisencouragementandsupportintheprepara- tionofthisbookandmycolleagueProfessorAshrafulHaque,DepartmentofFarm Power and Machinery, who read the manuscript and made many helpful suggestions.IowemythankstoMrs.EmmyFarhanaAlias,InstituteofAgricultural and Food Policy Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Malaysia, for her help in the preparationof the manuscript andDr.Itsara Masiri ofthe Department of Physics, SilpakornUniversity,NakhonPathom,Thailand,fortheassistanceingraphicsand indrawingthebeautifulfigures. Selangor,Malaysia BilashKantiBala FatimahMohamedArshad KusairiMohdNoh Contents PartI Concepts,MethodologyandTechniques 1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.1 IntroductiontoComplexityandChangeoftheDynamicSystems. . . 3 1.2 ConceptsofSystemsandSystemDynamics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.3 OpenandFeedbackSystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.4 ModesofBehaviourofDynamicSystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.5 ModelsandSimulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 1.6 SystemsThinkingandModelling. .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. 12 1.7 UsefulnessofModels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 1.8 StructureoftheBook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Bibliography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 2 SystemsThinking:SystemDynamics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.2 SystemsThinkingMethodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.2.1 ProblemIdentification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2.2.2 DynamicHypothesis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 2.2.3 CausalLoopDiagram. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 2.2.4 Stock–FlowDiagram. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 2.2.5 ParameterEstimation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.2.6 ModelValidation,SensitivityAnalysisandPolicy Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.2.7 ApplicationoftheModel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.3 CriticalAspectsofSystemsThinking. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.4 ParticipatorySystemsThinking. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.5 SystemsThinkinginAction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.5.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 2.5.2 DifferentialEquationModelandStock–Flow Diagram. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.5.3 SimulationandPolicyAnalysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Bibliography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 ix
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