Table Of ContentSpringer Texts in Business and Economics
Bilash Kanti Bala
Fatimah Mohamed Arshad
Kusairi Mohd Noh
System
Dynamics
Modelling and Simulation
Springer Texts in Business and Economics
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/10099
Bilash Kanti Bala (cid:129) Fatimah Mohamed
Arshad (cid:129) Kusairi Mohd Noh
System Dynamics
Modelling and Simulation
BilashKantiBala FatimahMohamedArshad
UniversityPutraMalaysia UniversityPutraMalaysia
Serdang,Selangor,DarulEhsan Serdang,Selangor,DarulEhsan
Malaysia Malaysia
KusairiMohdNoh
UniversityPutraMalaysia
Serdang,Selangor,DarulEhsan
Malaysia
ISSN2192-4333 ISSN2192-4341 (electronic)
SpringerTextsinBusinessandEconomics
ISBN978-981-10-2043-8 ISBN978-981-10-2045-2 (eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-981-10-2045-2
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016951454
#SpringerScience+BusinessMediaSingapore2017
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Foreword
Theworld,today,ispassingthroughaperiodofgreatturmoil,socially,politically
andenvironmentally,inspiteofthenumeroustechnologicalwondersthataretaking
placealmosteveryday.Oneneedstotakeasystemsviewoftheinfluencingfactors
andtheirinteractionsandimpactsinordertofindtherootcausesoftheseproblems
andtoarriveatviablepolicyoptions.Systemdynamicsprovidessuchanapproach.
The book authored by Professor Bala, Professor Fatimah and Professor Noh
presentstheprinciplesofsystemdynamicsinverysimplelanguageandillustrates
itsusewiththehelpoffivereal-lifecasestudies.
Thisbook is dividedintotwoparts.The firstpartofthebook presents, inavery
simple way and starting with the fundamental principles, how complex interactions
among the interacting forces can be modelled by capturing their cause–effect
interrelations through dynamic models, how the models can be simulated and
evaluated to depict reality and how policy interventions can be tested for testing
theirviability.Althoughthematerialcoveredinthispartofthebookisnotnew,the
examples supporting the theoretical nuances of the subject covering population
growth, grain storage, food security, commodity production, food relief, crop live-
stock,shrimpfarming,cropirrigationandpollutionareveryinterestingandappealing.
In the second part of the book, the authors discuss case studies related to the
areas of agriculture, aquaculture and environment in Bangladesh and Malaysia.
BothhilsafishandriceareimportantfortheeconomyofBangladesh,justasfood
security and cocoa production for Malaysia. The case study for solid waste man-
agement is well chosen as it is a perennial problem in third-world countries. This
partofthebookisillustrativeofthepowerofsystemdynamicsmethodologyasto
howitcanaddressmanycomplexissuesoftodayveryeasily.
I believe that a newcomer to the field of system dynamics will find the book
extremelyusefulandwillbehighlymotivatedtousesystemdynamicsandsystems
thinkinginunderstandingandaddressingtheissuesthatariseoutofthebehaviour
ofsystemsthatareintegralpartoftheirlives.
ProfessorofIndustrialEngineeringandManagement P.K.J.Mohapatra
IndianInstituteofTechnology
Kharagpur,WestBengal,India
September2014
v
Preface
ThisbookSystemDynamics:ModellingandSimulationisatotallynewbookwith
numerousexamplesandcasestudiesforbetterunderstandingthecomplexsystems
and their changes through modelling and simulation to aid in policy formulation
and developing management strategies for sustainable development. This book
provides a comprehensive introduction to systems thinking and modelling of
complex systems with application to agricultural, aquacultural, environmental
andsocio-economicsystems.Also thisbook essentially providesthe principlesof
system dynamics with numerous examples and a good number of case studies in
agricultural,aquacultural,environmentalandsocio-economicsystems.Itcoversall
aspects ofsystemdynamics starting fromsystemsthinkingtoparticipatorymodel
buildingtoprovideatoolforpolicyplanning,andthemainfocusistoaidinpolicy
design.
This book has been written primarily for undergraduate and postgraduate
coursesonsystemdynamics,systemsengineering,systemsimulation,agricultural
systemsandmultidisciplinarycoursesonagricultural,aquacultural,environmental
and socio-economic systems. This book can be adopted for courses in electrical
engineering and computer science. It will also serve as an excellent reference for
practicingsystemdynamists,systemdynamicsresearchersandpolicyplanners.Itis
the outcome of several years of teaching and research in system dynamics
modelling and simulation with applications in agricultural, aquacultural, environ-
mental and socio-economic systems and also is an updated and a new book on
principlesofsystemdynamics.
This book covers the wide spectrum of system dynamics methodology of
modellingandsimulationofcomplexsystems:systemsthinking,causaldiagrams,
systemstructureofstock–flowdiagrams,parameterestimationandtestsforconfi-
dence building in system dynamics models with a good number of worked-out
examplesindiversefields usingSTELLA andVENSIM.Incase studies,problem
statementwithdynamichypothesisisfollowedbycausalloopdiagrams,stock–flow
diagrams, parameter estimation, model validation and policy design. Exercises
havealsobeenincludedattheendofeachchapterforfurtherpractices.
The authors have a great pleasure in expressing the acknowledgements which
they owe to many persons in writing this book. Professor B K Bala warmly
recognises the continuing debt to his teacher, Dr. Donald R. Drew, W. Thomas
vii
viii Preface
Rice professor of systems engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State
University, USA, who introduced him to system dynamics at the Asian Institute
of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand. Thu authors also express sincere acknow-
ledgements to Professor P K J Mohapatra, Indian Institute of Technology,
Kharagpur, India who is the Father of System Dynamics in India has written the
foreword of this book. The authors have a great pleasure in expressing the
acknowledgements to Dr. Serm Janjai, Department of Physics, Silpakorn Univer-
sity,NakhonPathom,Thailand,forhisencouragementandsupportintheprepara-
tionofthisbookandmycolleagueProfessorAshrafulHaque,DepartmentofFarm
Power and Machinery, who read the manuscript and made many helpful
suggestions.IowemythankstoMrs.EmmyFarhanaAlias,InstituteofAgricultural
and Food Policy Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Malaysia, for her help in the
preparationof the manuscript andDr.Itsara Masiri ofthe Department of Physics,
SilpakornUniversity,NakhonPathom,Thailand,fortheassistanceingraphicsand
indrawingthebeautifulfigures.
Selangor,Malaysia BilashKantiBala
FatimahMohamedArshad
KusairiMohdNoh
Contents
PartI Concepts,MethodologyandTechniques
1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.1 IntroductiontoComplexityandChangeoftheDynamicSystems. . . 3
1.2 ConceptsofSystemsandSystemDynamics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3 OpenandFeedbackSystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.4 ModesofBehaviourofDynamicSystems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.5 ModelsandSimulation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
1.6 SystemsThinkingandModelling. .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. 12
1.7 UsefulnessofModels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.8 StructureoftheBook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Bibliography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2 SystemsThinking:SystemDynamics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.2 SystemsThinkingMethodology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
2.2.1 ProblemIdentification. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
2.2.2 DynamicHypothesis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
2.2.3 CausalLoopDiagram. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
2.2.4 Stock–FlowDiagram. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
2.2.5 ParameterEstimation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.2.6 ModelValidation,SensitivityAnalysisandPolicy
Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
2.2.7 ApplicationoftheModel. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.3 CriticalAspectsofSystemsThinking. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
2.4 ParticipatorySystemsThinking. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.5 SystemsThinkinginAction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
2.5.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
2.5.2 DifferentialEquationModelandStock–Flow
Diagram. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
2.5.3 SimulationandPolicyAnalysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
Bibliography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
ix
