System Dynamics Modeling of Community Development Projects

314 Pages·2014·5.393 MB·English

by  Bernard Amadei

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A Systems Approach to
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Bernard Amadei
A Systems Approach to Modeling Community Development Projects

Copyright © Momentum Press®, LLC, 2015.

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First published by Momentum Press®, LLC
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ISBN-13: 978-1-60650-518-2 (print)
ISBN-13: 978-1-60650-519-9 (e-book)

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Abstract
This book makes the case for a systems approach to small-scale
community development projects. It looks more specifically at the
application of one branch of systems science, called system dynamics, to
develop conceptual models of small-scale communities and address
specific issues they might be facing at different scales. A systems
approach recognizes that, by definition, communities are complex
adaptive systems consisting of multiple subsystems and parts (e.g.,
individuals, institutions, and infrastructure) that are interconnected, are
driven by some purpose, follow certain rules, and interact with each
other and with their surrounding environment. In order to address
community issues and problems, complexity and uncertainty must be
embraced and dealt with. This book emphasizes and shows how to
include a system- and complexity-aware approach in the different phases
of small-scale community project management. Adopting this approach
comes with unique challenges such as dealing with ill-defined problems,
considering uncertainty, recognizing that no unique and best solutions
to complex problems exist, and accepting satisficing (i.e., good enough)
solutions. This book emphasizes the need for community development
practitioners to integrate in all stages of their projects: participation,
systems thinking, continuous reflection-in-action, and a combination of
critical and creative tools. At the same time, practitioners must ensure
that they deliver solutions that are sound from a technical point of view
(i.e., done right), adaptable to the cultural, economic, and social context
in which they work (i.e., rightly done), and developed for the right
reasons.
Keywords
complexity, system dynamics, systems approach, systems thinking,
adaptive, community, participation, development projects, reflective
practice, behavior patterns, structure, context, satisficing.

CONTENTS
Preface ................................................................................................. ix
Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................... 1
1.1 Background and Context ............................................ 1
1.2 Systems in Our Daily Lives ........................................ 9
1.3 A Systems View of the World ................................... 14
1.4 Goals of the Book ..................................................... 24
1.5 Book Content .......................................................... 27
References ...................................................................... 29
Chapter 2 The Systemic Aspect of Community Development ........ 37
2.1 Human Development .............................................. 37
2.2 Models and Measures of Human Development ........ 42
2.3 Community Development ....................................... 48
2.4 Sustainability and Development ............................... 55
2.5 Concluding Remarks ................................................ 64
References ...................................................................... 65
Chapter 3 Communities as Complex Adaptive Systems .................. 71
3.1 Types of Systems ...................................................... 71
3.2 Systems Thinking ..................................................... 78
3.3 Characteristics of Complex and Adaptive Systems .... 86
References .................................................................... 100
Chapter 4 System Dynamics Modeling ......................................... 105
4.1 Systems Approach .................................................. 105
4.2 System Dynamics ................................................... 106
4.3 System Dynamics Components .............................. 111
4.4 System Archetypes .................................................. 116
4.5 Modeling ............................................................... 123
4.6 Individual and Group Decision Modeling .............. 137
4.7 System Dynamics Software ..................................... 143
4.8 Mixed-Modeling Methods ..................................... 144
References .................................................................... 151
vi CONTENTS
Chapter 5 Examples of Community Development
System Modules .......................................................... 157
5.1 Introduction .......................................................... 157
5.2 About the Modules ................................................ 159
5.3 Population Modules .............................................. 160
5.4 Water Modules ...................................................... 163
5.5 Food Module ........................................................ 166
5.6 Health Module ...................................................... 168
5.7 Housing Module ................................................... 170
5.8 Behavior Change Module ...................................... 171
5.9 Concluding Remarks ............................................. 172
References ................................................................... 173
Chapter 6 A Systems Approach to Small-Scale
Development Projects ................................................. 175
6.1 Project Life-Cycle Management ............................. 175
6.2 Project Life-Cycle Frameworks .............................. 183
6.3 Proposed Framework ............................................. 194
6.4 Reflection-in-Action .............................................. 197
6.5 Identification and Initiation .................................. 202
6.6 Community Appraisal ........................................... 203
6.7 Causal Analysis ...................................................... 219
6.8 Comprehensive Work Plan .................................... 228
6.9 From Implementation to Long-Term
Sustainability ............................................................... 235
6.10 Stock-and-Flow Representation ........................... 239
References ................................................................... 239
Chapter 7 Dynamic Modeling of Community
Development ............................................................... 245
7.1 Introduction .......................................................... 245
7.2 Reverse Analysis of Community Behavior .............. 251
7.3 Community Structure Formulation ....................... 253
7.4 Defining the Sustainable State ............................... 263
References ................................................................... 273
CONTENTS vii
Chapter 8 Conclusions ................................................................. 275
8.1 Development and Systems ...................................... 275
8.2 Community Structure and Behavior ....................... 277
8.3 Community Development States ............................ 279
References .................................................................... 281
Appendix ..........................................................................................283
Index .................................................................................................289

Preface
This book is about systems thinking, system dynamics modeling, and
community development projects. It is a follow-up to my first book on
the topic of engineering and development, published in 2014 through
ASCE Press, in which I looked more specifically at the role of
engineering in poverty reduction and human development in general.
After writing Engineering for Sustainable Human Development: A Guide
to Successful Small-Scale Development Projects, it was not my original
intent to start a new book project. But in writing that book, I became
interested in exploring further the field of systems thinking and its
possible applications in small-scale community development projects,
mostly engineering projects in rural communities in the developing
world. This interest originated from the observation that communities
are systems of systems consisting of multiple parts (e.g., individuals,
institutions, and infrastructure) that are interconnected, are driven by
some purpose, follow certain rules, and interact with each other and
with their surrounding environment. Simply put, communities cannot
be analyzed in a deterministic and reductionist way by assuming that
they consist of an assembly of static and independent elements and that
the assembly is nothing more than the sum of its parts.
Following my participation in a workshop on system dynamics
modeling taught by Corey Peck in Colorado in 2011, I became
captivated by that methodology and started exploring its applications to
development projects. I began using it in some of the courses that I
taught at the University of Colorado (CU) at Boulder. In the meantime,
my own field experience in the developing world with Engineers
Without Borders – USA and the Mortenson Center in Engineering for
Developing Communities at CU made me realize that there ought to be
a better approach to addressing community needs than the traditional
one used by development agencies. Their methodology is to look at
communities as consisting of separate units, with separate issues, and
which can only be addressed by specific experts who do not usually talk
to each other. In a nutshell, these experts are supposed to come up with