System Archetypes III

27 Pages·2008·0.44 MB·English

by  Pegasus Communications, Inc.

T O O L B O X R E P R I N T S E R I E S
S Y S T E M S
III
ARCHETYPES
Understanding Patterns of (cid:1)
Behavior and Delay
(cid:1) BY DANIEL H. KIM
2
T H E T O O L B O X R E P R I N T S E R I E S
SystemsArchetypesI:DiagnosingSystemicIssuesandDesigningHigh-LeverageInterventions
SystemsArchetypesII:UsingSystemsArchetypestoTakeEffectiveAction
SystemsArchetypesIII:UnderstandingPatternsofBehaviorandDelay
SystemsThinkingTools:AUser’sReferenceGuide
The“Thinking”inSystemsThinking:SevenEssentialSkills
SystemsArchetypesIII:UnderstandingPatternsofBehaviorandDelay
byDanielH.Kim
©2000byPegasusCommunications,Inc.
Firstedition.
FirstprintingMarch2000.
Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyany
means,electronicormechanical,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformation
storageorretrievalsystem,withoutwrittenpermissionfromthepublisher.
Acquiringeditor:KellieWardmanO’Reilly
Consultingeditor:GinnyWiley
Projecteditor:LaurenKellerJohnson
Production:NancyDaugherty
ISBN1-883823-49-8
PEGASUS COMMUNICATIONS, INC.
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2008
T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S
Introduction 4
FromGrowthtoUncertainty:
TheDynamicsof“LimitstoSuccess” 7
MacroOutcomesfromMicroBehaviors:
TheDynamicsof“TragedyoftheCommons” 10
“GrowthandUnderinvestment”:
TheRoleofRelativeDelay 13
ATaleofTwoLoops:
TheBehaviorof“SuccesstotheSuccessful” 16
“FixesThatFail”:WhyFasterIsSlower 18
“ShiftingtheBurden”:MovingBeyonda
ReactiveOrientation 20
“Escalation”:TheUnderlyingStructureofWar 22
“DriftingGoals”:TheChallengeofConflictingPriorities 24
IndextoTheSystemsThinker 26
AbouttheToolboxReprintSeries 26
PegasusPublications 27
I N T R O D U C T I O N
D r.JoeJuran,arenownedpioneerandexpertonTotalQualityManagement,oftentold
topmanagementteamsthattheirbusinessesineffectconsistedoftwodifferentfactories
ofaboutequalsize.Onewasdesignedtoproducehigh-qualityproductseverydayoftheyear.
Theotherwasdesignedtocontinuallychurnoutnothingbutscrapandwaste.Framinghis
observationsaboutbuilt-inwasteinthisway—especiallytheclaimthatthesecondfactorywas
consciouslydesignedtoproducenothingbutwaste—certainlycaughttheattentionofmanytop
executives.Wemightfindthisanabsurdconcept,becausenoonewouldactuallydesignsucha
system...orwouldthey?
ADAPTIVE ACTIONS AT WORK
Inhiscommentsaboutthetwodifferentfactories,Dr.Jurankeenlysummarizedwhat
oftenhappenswhenasystemisallowedtoslowlyadapttoitsenvironmentwithoutcon-
sciousplanningoranalysis.Henotedthatwhendefectratesrise,aplanttypicallyreactsat
theeventlevelbyincreasingproductstartsandorderingmorerawmaterials.Thisaction
makessenseintheshortrun,becausethefactorystillhastodeliveraspecifiednumberof
goodproducts.Overalongtime,however,thedefectratemaycontinuetorisewithout
settingoffanyalarmbells,becausetheincreasednumberofproductionstarts“solvesthe
problem.”Duringthisperiod,thefactorycontinually“recalibrates”thecostofproducing
theproducttoreflecttheadditionalexpenses.Afterawhile,managersacceptthehigher
costsascorrect—andsoitgoesovertheyears.Thecompanyhasadaptedtohigherscrap
ratesbypermanentlyutilizingahighervolumeofrawmaterialstoyieldtheneededprod-
ucts.Theyhave,ineffect,disconnectedthealarmbellthatwouldhavewarnedthem
aboutafundamentalproblemwiththesystem.
Dr.Juranpointsoutthattherearemanybehaviorswemaynevernoticebecausethey
havefadedintothebackgroundofwhatwehavecometoacceptas“normal.”Yetour
deepestproblemsmaystempreciselyfromthosebehaviorsweconsidertobeacceptable—
whichiswhyanumberofqualityimprovementtools(checksheets,paretoanalysis,con-
trolcharts)arespecificallydesignedtohelpidentify“invisible”patterns.Thesystems
archetypesareadditionaltoolsthatcanhelpyoudetectinvisiblepatternsinamuch
broadercontext.
SEEING THE SIGNATURE PATTERNS
InthefirsttwosystemsarchetypesvolumesintheToolboxReprintSeries(Systems
ArchetypesIandSystemsArchetypesII),wefocusonidentifyingandunderstandingthe
feedbackloopstructuresthatproduceundesirablebehaviorsinourorganizations.Inthis
thirdvolume,wetakeacloserlookatwhatIrefertoasthesignaturepatternsofbehavior
associatedwitheacharchetype.Byinternalizingthesesignaturepatterns,wecanenhance
ourcapacitytodetectsituationswherearchetypalsystemicforcesaredrivingthe(undesir-
able)results.
Identifyingandchartingpatternsofbehaviorovertimecanhelpusdetectadaptive
responsesthatareofteninvisibleintherelativelyshorttimehorizonsofday-to-daylife.
Especiallyinsituationswherewehaveeithertoomuchofsomething(inventory,defects,
complaints)ortoolittle(time,people,products),constructingabehaviorovertimegraph
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canprovidethelongertimeperspectiveneededforustoseelargerpatterns.(Youmight
wanttorefertothearticle“FourStepstoGraphingBehaviorOverTime,”inVolume8,
Number3ofTHESYSTEMSTHINKERNewsletter.)Thesesignaturepatternscanhelp
usidentifythearchetypalforcesatworkinagivensituationandguideustomoreeffec-
tive,longertermactions.
HOW THIS VOLUME IS ORGANIZED
Becausewefocusonbehaviorovertimeinthisvolume,thearchetypesareorganized
accordingtosimilaritiesintheirdynamicpatternsofbehavior—specifically,whetherthey
aredrivenmorebyreinforcing“engines”orbybalancing“corrections.”
Reinforcing Engines
Thefirstfourarchetypes—“LimitstoSuccess,”“TragedyoftheCommons,”“Growthand
Underinvestment,”and“SuccesstotheSuccessful”—areinitiallydrivenbythegrowth
enginesofreinforcingloops. Eachofthesearchetypessharesasimilaroverallbehaviorof
initialgrowthinsomething,whichinturndrivesotherbehaviorsinotherpartsofthesys-
tem.Inthefirstthreearchetypes,thegrowtheventuallypushesonlimitsinthesystem
andproducesabalancingresponseintheformofslowinggrowth.Animportantpointto
understandaboutthesearchetypesisthattheirlong-termbehaviorsdependnotonlyon
thespecificactionstakenbutthetimingofthoseactions.Thefourtharchetypeinthis
group,“SuccesstotheSuccessful,”differsfromtheotherthreeinthatthereinforcing
enginedoesnotreachanylimits.Indeed,theverydownsideofthisstructurederivesfrom
thewaythe“failure”inoneofitsloopshasbeen“hard-wired”intothestructurefromthe
verybeginning.
Balancing Corrections
Thesecondfourarchetypes—“FixesThatFail,”“ShiftingtheBurden,”“Escalation,”and
“DriftingGoals”—arealldrivenbybalancingforcesthatareintendedto“fix”something
intheshorttermbutoftenproduceundesirableresultsinthelongterm.Allfourofthese
archetypesattempttostabilizeasituationbytakingsomeformofcorrectiveactions.
However,theyendupworseningthingsovertime,producinganundesirable,reinforcing
growthpatternofbehaviorinthelongterm.Owingtothedelaysinthesystem,people
involvedinthesystemtendtocontinuetakingthosecorrectiveactions,eventhoughthese
actionskeepreinforcingtheproblem.Thisisbecausetheconnectionisnotobviousto
them,and/oritisnot“politically”wisetoceasetakingthoseactions.
HOW TO USE THIS VOLUME
Thisvolumebuildsonandextendsyourunderstandingofsystemsarchetypesgained
throughthefirsttwovolumes.Byfocusingonthebehaviorovertimeaspectofthe
archetypes,thevolumeprovidesyouwithanotherentrypointforidentifyingsituationsin
whichyourorganizationmaybestuckinoneormoreofthesearchetypes.Charting
behaviorovertimeisoftenaneasierandmorenaturalplaceforsomepeopletostarttheir
systemicinquiryintoanissue.Wealsoencourageyoutoengageothersinconstructing
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behaviorovertimegraphs,againbyfollowingtheguidelinesoutlinedin“FourStepsto
GraphingBehaviorOverTime.”Theconversationsandinsightsagroupcangainby
drawingthesepatternsareoftenvaluableinthemselves.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Theworkcontainedinthisbookisbuiltonthepriorworkofmanyothers.First,I
acknowledgealong-timecolleagueandfriend,PeterSenge,forintroducingtheconcept
ofthesystemsarchetypestoabroadmanagementaudienceinhisbookTheFifth
Discipline.Ialsoacknowledgeallthosewhowereinvolvedinthedevelopmentofthese
principlesandconceptsbeforetheyeverappearedinTheFifthDiscipline,includingJohn
Sterman,JohnMorecroft,MichaelGoodman,JennyKemeny,andDavidKreutzer.In
addition,Ithankalltheparticipantsofmyworkshops,fromwhomIlearnedagreatdeal
aboutmakingthecontentclearerandmoreaccessibletopracticingmanagers.Inparticu-
lar,IthankJeanTullyforherstrongsupportofsystemsthinkingworkshopsatHewlett-
Packard,whichprovidedmanyopportunitiestoclarifyandrefinemythinking.
AtPegasus,IthankJaniceMolloyforherwonderfuleditorialsupportingettingthe
originalarticlespublishedinTHESYSTEMSTHINKER;LaurenKellerJohnsonfor
pullingthiswholeprojecttogetherandenrichingthevolumewithherskillfuleditorial
eye;HrishikeshHirwayforcreatingthefreshnewdesignforthisseries;Nancy
Daughertyforrefiningthedesignandproducingthepagespreads;andJuliaKilcoynefor
coordinatingtheprintingofthevolume.
THE LANGUAGE OF LINKS AND LOOPS
BALANCING LOOP THE LANGUAGE OF
EXAMPLE ACCUMULATORS
“clouds”represent the(cid:13)
+s wAhcearuesaalclihnaknbgeetwineXenctawuosevsaraiacbhleasn,ge DLesevireeld(cid:13) osGap DLesevireeld(cid:13) –+ Gap bounindcalruiedse oinf wthhea dt iwager awmant to(cid:13)
inYinthesamedirection,orwhereX s +
addstoY.
o Actual B Adjust-Actual(cid:13) B Adjust- flowregulator
Acausallinkbetweentwovariables, Level ments Level ments accumulator
_ iwnhYerienathcehoapnpgoesiinteXdicreacutsioens,aorchwahnegree s Delay +
XsubtractsfromY.
R population
A“reinforcing”feedbackloopthat
amplifieschange. Ifthereisagapbetweenthedesiredlevel births deaths
B A“balancing”feedbackloopthatseeks andtheactuallevel,adjustmentsaremade connector to indicate
untiltheactualequalsthedesiredlevel.The causalconnection
equilibrium. flowpipe
startingvariableisgrey.
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T O O L B O X
FROM GROWTH TO UNCERTAINTY:
THE DYNAMICS OF “LIMITS TO SUCCESS”
A syoumayrecall,inthe“Limitsto ourownorganizations.Second,itshowsus increase,salesgrowthfollows.Becausewe
Success”archetype,certainactions howdelaysinthesystemcanaffectour beganwithampletech-supportcapacity,
initiallyleadtosuccess,encouragingthe abilitytorespondtovariousscenarios,and weinitiallyhavenoproblemshandlingthe
organizationtoengageinevenmoreof providesuswithguidelinesforwhenand trickleofcallsthatcomeinfromourfirst
thosesameefforts.Overtime,however,the wheretoimplementcorrectiveactions.In customers.Wemayeventakeprideinthe
systemencounterslimitsthatslow thecaseof“LimitstoSuccess,”wecan factthatwearesteadilyincreasingour
improvementsinresults.Asperformance viewitsbehaviorovertimegraphascon- tech-supportcapacityevenwhenweseem
declines,theorganizationtendstofocus sistingofthreedistinct“regions”(see tohavemorethanweneed.
evenmoreonimplementingtheactions “BehavioroverTimeGraphs”onp.8).In
REGION II:
thatinitiallyledtogrowth. thisfigure,thetopgraphtrackswhathap-
DIMINISHING RETURNS
Forinstance,marketingisacommon pensonthereinforcingsideofthe
engineofgrowthinmostcompanies. archetype,andthebottomonetrackswhat Thecontinuedgrowthinsalesleadstoan
Businessesallocateacertainpercentageof happensonthebalancingside.The evenfasterincreaseintheinstalledcus-
revenuestomarketingandengageinvari- dynamicbeginswithaperiodofseemingly tomerbase.Ifsalesremainconstant,the
ousmarketingactivitiesthatgeneratesales unhamperedgrowth.Thenextregionis installedbasegrowslinearly.Ifsales
(see“LimitstoComputerSales”).More markedbyslowinggrowthanddiminish- increaselinearly(withapositiveslope),the
salesleadtoincreasedrevenuesandacor- ingreturnsfortheeffortsexpended.The installedbasegrowsexponentially.Ifsales
respondingriseinthemarketingbudget finalregioninvolvesuncertainoutcomes, increaseexponentially,theinstalledbase
(R1).However,inourexample,ascom- becausetheshapeofthegraphsdependson growssuperexponentially.Becauseofthis
putersalesgrow,theinstalledcustomer whathappenedinthepreviousregionsand relationshipbetweensalesandtheinstalled
basenaturallyexpands,alongwithcallsfor ontherangeofoptionsavailableatthis customerbase,anorganizationcaneasily
technicalsupport(B2).Ifthecompany’s point.Belowwelookatthedynamicsof becaughtoffguardbyhowquicklythe
technical-supportcapacitydoesnotincrease eachoftheseregions. impactofgrowthhitsit.Iftech-support
fastenoughtomeetthegrowingdemand, callsaredrivenmorebythenumberof
REGION I:
theadequacyofthatcapacitybeginsto
drop.Thistrendleadstolowercustomer UNHAMPERED LIMITS TO COMPUTER SALES
GROWTH
satisfactionandadownwardpressureon
computersales.(Wesay“downwardpres- Theearlyphasesofany Tech-Support(cid:13)
sure”ratherthana“decline”becausesales growtheffortcanbeexhil- s Marketing Customer s Capacity
Activities ss Satisfaction s
arelikelytocontinuetogrow,althoughata arating.Whenaproductor Adequacy of(cid:13)
reducedorslowerrate.) servicetakesoffand Marketing R1 Computer B2 Tech Support
Budget Sales o
becomeshugelysuccessful,
THREE “REGIONS” OF s Tech-Support(cid:13)
BEHAVIOR OVER TIME wefeellikewecan’tdo Revenues s s InsBtaasleled sCalls
anythingwrong.Growth
Understandingthedynamicbehaviorover begetsmoregrowth,asthe
Moresalesleadtoincreasedrevenuesandariseinthemarketing
timeofkeyvariablesandgraspinghow reinforcingenginekicks
budget(R1).However,assalesgrow,theinstalledcustomer
theyinterrelateaccomplishesatleasttwo intohighgear. baseexpands,alongwithcallsfortechnicalsupport(B2).Ifthe
things.First,itrevealspatternsthatmight Inourexample,as technical-supportcapacitydoesnotincreasefastenoughtomeet
thegrowingdemand,theadequacyofthatcapacitydrops,leading
helpusseesimilardynamicsoccurringin marketingactivities
tolowercustomersatisfactionandsales.
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installedcustomersratherthanbycurrent withasteeperslope.Butnoticethatthe Meanwhile,wecandetectonecause
sales,thecallvolumeislikelytoincrease gapbetweenmarketingandsaleswidens forthedecliningsalesinthebehaviorover
atmoreorlessthesamerateasthe overtime.Althoughwedonotmeasure timeofthevariablesinthebalancingloop.
installedbase. thetwovariablesinthesameunits,wecan Ascallvolumeoutstripstech-support
So,inthisregion,acompany’stech- stillcomparethedegreeofchangebetween capacity,customersatisfactionstartsto
supportcapacityisoutstrippedbythevol- thetwoovertime.InRegionII,amarked decline.Wemayhavenoticedthecapacity
umeofcalls.Theeffectofthispattern increaseinmarketingdoesnotresultin shortfall,andwemayhavestartedto
showsupinthetopgraph,wheretherate thesamerateofgrowthinsalesthatitdid expandcapacityfasterthanwehadorigi-
ofsalesgrowthbeginstoslow(salesare inRegionI.Thegrowinggapbetweenthe nallyplanned.But,intheshortterm,the
stillincreasing,butatadecreasingrate). tworeflectsthediminishingreturnson gapkeepsgettingwiderbecauseittakes
Whenwenoticethedecreaseinsales,we marketingdollarsspent:Ittakesmore timetoaddsuchcapacity.Duringthis
typicallyrespondbysteppingupmarket- marketingdollarstoattractthesamenum- period,customersatisfactioncontinuesto
ingefforts,depictedintheuppergraph berofnewcustomers. decline,furtherhamperingsales.Allthe
while,weareincreasingmarketingefforts
aswetrytochasedownmoresales.
BE HAVIO R OVER TIME GRAPHS
Becauseofourinvestments,techsupport
finallyreachesalevelwhereitcanade-
REINFORCING LOOP BEHAVIOR OVER TIME
quatelymeetthecallvolume.Ofcourse,
RegionI RegionII RegionIII(cid:13)
(Unhampered(cid:13) (Diminishing (Uncertain(cid:13) partofthischangeistheresultofslowing
Growth) Returns) Outcomes) sales.Thesadtruthmaybethatsaleshave
declinedfromwhattheycouldhavebeen
s ifwehadhadenoughcapacity,indicated
Activitie bytheflatteningoftheinstalledbase
g curve.
n
BDeigmininniisnhginogf Marketi REGION III:
Returns
UNCERTAIN OUTCOMES
C o m p u t er Sale s Bythetimewehaveaddressedthelimit
thatwehavehit(inthiscase,tech-support
capacity),wehaveenteredRegionIII,
Time
BALANCING LOOP BEHAVIOR OVER TIME wherewefacemanypossiblefutureout-
comes.Howthesystembehavesfromthis
pointforwardhasalottodowiththepar-
Base ticularbusiness.RegionsIandIIarerela-
CustomerSatisfaction InstalleCdalls tivelypredictablebecausethebehaviorsare
Calls Support dInriRveengiboyntIhIeI,gheonwereivcearr,cthheetdypyanlasmtriucsctaurrees.
OCauptasctritipy Tech- alsodeterminedbythespecificsofthe
productandthemarket.
Tech-Support
Capacity ActionstoAccelerate(cid:13) Forexample,forsomeproductsand
CapacityGrowth
markets,ifweresolvethetechnical-
supportproblems,customerswillresume
Time
theirbuyingpatterns,albeitataslower
Wecanviewthe“LimitstoSuccess”archetypeasconsistingofthreedistinct“regions”ofa ratethanbefore.Thisscenarioisdepicted
behaviorovertimegraph.Thetopgraphtrackswhathappensonthereinforcingside,andthe inourgraph,whichshowssalesrecovering
bottomthebalancingside.Thedynamicbeginswithaperiodofseeminglyunhamperedgrowth.
ascustomersatisfactionincreases.America
Thenextregionismarkedbyslowinggrowthanddiminishingreturns.Thefinalregioninvolves
uncertainoutcomes. Online’ssituationinthelate1990s
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appearstomirrorthisexperience. havingtoolittle.Wethusneedtounder- howgrowthcouldbelimitedbyfactorsin
However,othersituationsmaynotturn standwherethelongestdelayinincreasing anumberofotherareas:customerservice,
outaswell.Oncecustomerssourona capacityexists.Inaddition,wemustdesign training,delivery.Anddon’toverlook
productorservice,thesatisfactionlevel theappropriatefeedbackchannelstopro- intangibleelements—attitudes,values,
mayneverrebound,evenafteracompany videsufficientleadtimeforthecapacityto beliefs,feelings,andrelationships.
remedieswhatevershortfalltheyhadini- comeonlinewhenitisneeded.Inour Remember,therealleverageina
tiallyexperienced. example,ifwecanquicklyboosttech- “LimitstoSuccess”situationdoesnotlie
Anotherpossibilityisthatabusiness supportcapacityinresponsetoanincrease inpushingharderontheengineof
maygothroughseveralcyclesofgrowth inthenumberofservicecalls,wecaniniti- growth,butinfindingandmanagingthe
anddeclineasiteitherhitsthesamelimit atecapacityexpansionsbasedonthetech- factororfactorsthatarelimitingsuccess
againlaterorhitsanewone.Thissitua- supportcallvolume(seeR3in“Reengaging whileyoustillhavethetimeandmoney
tiontriggersanotherroundofupsand theGrowthEngines”).Ontheotherhand, todoso.Thisstrategymayinvolvetaking
downs,whichmaysetthecompanyona ifittakesarelativelylongtimeforusto politicallydifficultsteps,suchasinvesting
permanentdownwardslideascustomers upgradetech-supportcapacity,wemay innewcapacitybeforeyouactuallyneed
becomefedupwithitsinconsistency. needtoexpandcapacitybasedoneither itordevelopingnewmanagementsys-
installedbase(R4)ormarketingactivities temswheneveryoneelseisscreamingthat
WHAT’S A MANAGER TO DO?
andprojections(R5). youneedmoreR&Dinstead.Mappingthe
So,howcanwemakeuseofthisinforma- Unfortunately,manycompaniesend anticipatedbehaviorovertimeindetail,
tion,whetherwearejuststartingoutor uprelyingonnegativecustomerfeedback aswehavedonehere,mayhelpyoubuild
arealreadyinRegionsI,II,orIII?Akey tocorrecttheproblemtheynowface(B6). acommonunderstandingofthese
lessonofthisarchetypeistounderstand Orworsestill,theywaituntilsalesactually dynamicswithinyourorganizationand
theimportanceofknowingwhereinthe fall(wellintoRegionIII)beforetheyget makedifficultactionsalittlebiteasierto
systemtheimpactofgrowthwillbefelt thesignalthatsomethingneedstobedone. implement.
thefastestandwherethedelayswillbethe
PLANNING FOR SUCCESS
longest.
Tobegin,wewanttofindoutif Asyouplanforgrowth,automatically
growthinoneareahasamultiplyingeffect assumethatsomethingwilleventually
onanotherpartofthesystem.Otherwise, limityourexpansion,andthenlookfor
weriskaddressingonerateofgrowth thoselimits.Study
when,inactuality,weshouldbeconcerned othercompaniesor
R E E N G A G I N G T H E G R O W T H
withamuchhigherrateofgrowththatis groupsthathave
E N G I N E S
occurringelsewhere.Inourexample,we embarkedonsimi-
seethattheriseinsaleshasastrongimpact larventurestosee
ontheinstalledbase,andhenceonthe whatlimitsthey o s
R5
numberofservicecallsthathittechsup- mayhaveencoun- B6 Tech-Support(cid:13)
port.Ifwelinkgrowthintechsupportto tered.Walkyour- s Marketing Customer s Capacitsy s
theincreaseinsales,wewillconsistently selfthroughyour Activities ss Satisfaction s
Adequacyof
sufferfromundercapacity.Butbyidentify- processesorser- Marketing R1 Computer B2 Tech Support
ingthisconnectioninadvance,wecanbet- vices,lookingat Budget Sales o R3
s Tech-Support(cid:13)
terprepareforthetrueimpactofthe themfromthe s Installed
Revenues s Base sCalls R4
growthonallpartsofthesystem. pointofviewofall
Nevertheless,evenafterwehaveiden- membersofthe
tifiedthevariablethatislikelytocreatea organizationas
Ifwecanquicklyboosttech-supportcapacityinresponsetorising
bottleneck,wedon’tknowwhentostart wellasfromthatof servicecalls,wecaninitiatecapacityexpansionsbasedonthetech-
investinginadditionalcapacityandatwhat customers,suppli- supportcallvolume(R3).Ifinsteadittakesalongtimetoupgradetech
support,wemayneedtoexpandcapacitybasedoneitherinstalledbase
rate.Havingtoomuchidlecapacityfor ers,andotherout-
(R4)ormarketingprojections(R5).Unfortunately,manycompaniesrely
longperiodsoftimeisalmostasbadas siders.Askagain onnegativecustomerfeedbacktodrivetheincreases(B6).
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T O O L B O X
MACRO OUTCOMES FROM MICRO
BEHAVIORS: THE DYNAMICS OF “TRAGEDY
OF THE COMMONS”
T he“TragedyoftheCommons” totaldrawontheresourcefromallplayers initiatemorerequestsforthecommons,or
structureisaslightlymorecom- stayswithinthecarryingcapacityorlimits justoutrightgrabmoreofthecommons
plex,multiplayervariationonthe“Limits ofthecommons,everythingisfine.The beforeothersgettoit.Ofcourse,these
toSuccess”story(see“The‘Tragedyofthe “Tragedy”nevergetstriggered,andthe kindsoftacticsarequicklycopiedby
Commons’Structure.”)Alltheplayersin playerskeepdoingwhatthey’redoing. everyoneelse,whichfurtheracceleratesthe
thesystemdiscoverthattheycangain Whenconsumptionbeginstoexceed depletionofthecommons.Leftunman-
fromutilizingacommonresourcewithout theresource’sabilitytoreplenishitself, aged,thesekindsofactionswilleventually
havingtopaymuch,ifanything,interms however,gainsperindividualeffortwill bringonthecollapseofthecommons.
ofdirectcosts.Themoretheyutilizethe starttodecline—fewerfishinthenets, Thentherewillbenomoregainsforthe
resource,themoretheygainfromtheir longertimeforprototypestobecompleted, participants,sotheiractivitieswillfinally
activity(loopsR1andR2).Sotomaximize moremistakesinthedocuments.When ceaseorbegreatlycurtailed(B5andB6).
theirindividualbenefit,theycontinueto thishappens,participantsoftenrespondby
OF LIMITS AND TRAGEDIES
takeadvantageofthecommonsasmuchas redoublingtheirefforts(R3andR4).They
theywant.Aslongasthetotalactivityor maytrytogettothecommonsfaster, Boththe“LimitstoSuccess”and“Tragedy
oftheCommons”archetypesareaffected
bylimits,butthetwoarchetypesdifferin
T HE “ TRA GEDY OF T HE COMMONS”
animportantway.In“LimitstoSuccess,”
ST RU CT UR E
thelimitsencounteredareonesthatcould
s beexpandedthroughjudiciousplanning
Net Gains(cid:13)
s andtimelyinvestmentsintheresource.
for A
Theprimarylessonof“Limits”isthere-
R1 B5 foreaboutbalancingcapacityinvestments
andgrowingdemandsuchthatfuture
growthisnothinderedbyinadequate
A’s(cid:13) o
s Activity Resource(cid:13) capacity.In“TragedyoftheCommons,”
Limit
s
thelimitsareconsidered“fixed”during
R3
Gain per(cid:13) therelevanttimeframe.Thisarchetype’s
ATcotitvaitl(cid:13)y Delay o InAdcitviivdiutyal(cid:13) s primarylessonisthereforeaboutmanag-
s R4 ingconsumptionoftheresourceinaway
thatneverallowsthesystemtoenterthe
B’s(cid:13)
s
Activity o undesirableregionofrapiddecline.Thus,
behaviorovertimegraphsforthetwo
R2 B6 archetypesarequitedistinct.
THREE REGIONS OF
s
Net Gains(cid:13)
for B BEHAVIOR OVER TIME
s
In“TragedyoftheCommons,”wewantto
Inpreviousversionsofthisarchetype,theacceleratingRloops(R3andR4)wereleftas payattentiontohowthreekeyvariables
implicitpartsofthestructure.Wearemakingthemmoreexplicitherebecausewewanttolink
changeovertime(see“BehaviorOver
theseloopsmorepreciselytothepatternsofbehaviorovertimethattheygenerate.
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