Sustainable Program Management

376 Pages·2013·18.347 MB·English

by  Gregory T Haugan

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Project Management
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u Sustainable
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The world is undergoing major transitions due to three driving forces— a
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population changes, climate changes, and energy resource constraints—
making it essential for us to move toward sustainability in the Program
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implementation of projects and programs as well as our everyday life.
Real sustainability exists where there is a balance between population u
and energy usage and a stable climate—global equilibrium. Designed s
for program and portfolio managers and senior planners, Sustainable t Management
a
Program Management provides essential information on the three
major driving forces of the coming decades and presents options to i
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assist us in moving toward a sustainable future.
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b
This book offers a unique approach to accommodating the three new
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constraints of population change, climate change, and energy resources
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as impacts on programs and portfolios. It presents them in the form of

overlays, which facilitate planning by considering the effects of these P
additional constraints on a program, along with schedule, budget, and r
performance constraints. The overlays summarize the book’s extensive o
analyses of these global challenges. g
r
The book is divided into sections on population change, climate change, a
and energy resource constraints and provides background information
m
and overlays for each one. The author discusses scenarios, possible
solutions, and probable outcomes, which provide the basis for evaluating
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the risks and the sustainability considerations involved. The final section
of the text addresses planning for real sustainability and describes six
a
pathways toward a sustainable system. This practical book familiarizes
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readers with these new global challenges to program management and
a
provides a basis for developing sustainable and successful programs.
g
e
m
e Gregory T. Haugan
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K16683
6000 Broken Sound Parkway, NW t
Suite 300, Boca Raton, FL 33487 ISBN: 978-1-4665-7516-5
711 Third Avenue 90000
New York, NY 10017
an informa business
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K16683 cvr mech.indd 1 8/16/13 9:07 AM
Sustainable
Program
Management
Best Practices and Advances
in Program Management Series
Series Editor
Ginger Levin

PUBLISHED TITLES
Sustainable Program Management
Gregory T. Haugan
Leading Virtual Project Teams: Adapting Leadership Theories
and Communications Techniques to 21st Century Organizations
Margaret R. Lee
Applying Guiding Principles of Effective Program Delivery
Kerry R. Wills
Construction Program Management
Joseph Delaney
Implementing Program Management: Templates and Forms Aligned
with the Standard for Program Management,
Third Edition (2013) and Other Best Practices
Ginger Levin and Allen R. Green
Program Management: A Life Cycle Approach
Ginger Levin
FORTHCOMING TITLES
Successful Program Management:
Complexity Theory, Communication, and Leadership
Wanda Curlee and Robert Lee Gordon
From Projects to Programs: A Project Manager’s Journey
Samir Penkar
Program Management Leadership: Creating Successful Team Dynamics
Mark C. Bojeun
The Essential Program Management Office
Gary Hamilton
Sustainable
Program
Management
Gregory T. Haugan
CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300
Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742
© 2014 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business
No claim to original U.S. Government works
Version Date: 20130729
International Standard Book Number-13: 978-1-4665-7517-2 (eBook - PDF)
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Contents
Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................xiii
Preface .................................................................................................xvii
Acknowledgments ...............................................................................xxi
About the Author. .............................................................................xxiii
Chapter 1 Overlay Concept and Structure for Sustainability. ..........1
Overlay Zoning Analogy ............................................................1
Overlay Criteria ...........................................................................2
1. Purpose ................................................................................2
2. Applicability ........................................................................3
3. Specific Rules .......................................................................4
Work Breakdown Structure .......................................................5
Endnotes .......................................................................................5
SeCtion i Sustainability
Chapter 2 Sustainability Definitions and Concepts. .........................9
Definitions of Sustainability ......................................................9
Basic Definition: Type 1 .......................................................10
Forestry Definition: Type 2 .................................................10
Systems Definition of Sustainability: Type 3 ....................11
MIT Sloan School of Management Definition: Type 4....14
Environmental Sustainability: Type 5 ...............................14
Ecological Footprint: Type 6 ...............................................16
Generational Sustainability: Type 7 ...................................16
Sustainability as a Process Destination: Type 8 ...............17
Global Sustainability .................................................................18
Sustainability Standards and Certifications ..........................18
Endnotes .....................................................................................18
© 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC v
vi • Contents
Chapter 3 Sustainable Development. ................................................21
Brundtland Report ....................................................................21
United Nations ...........................................................................23
Agenda 21 ...................................................................................25
Millennium Development Goals .............................................27
Endnotes .....................................................................................29
Chapter 4 Rules and Sustaining the Commons ...............................31
Sustainability Rules ...................................................................31
Sustaining the Commons .........................................................32
Tragedy of the Commons ....................................................32
Problem Resolutions ............................................................34
Rules for Protecting the Commons ....................................35
Chesapeake Bay Case Study ................................................36
Protection of the Commons ................................................37
Recommendations to Protect the Global Commons .......37
Endnotes .....................................................................................39
SeCtion ii Population
Chapter 5 Overview: Population and Demographics Overlay .......43
Endnotes ....................................................................................46
Chapter 6 Introduction to Demographics........................................49
Thomas Robert Malthus ...........................................................50
Socialism .....................................................................................51
Demographic Transition Stages ..............................................52
Immigration and Migration ....................................................53
Endnotes ....................................................................................54
Chapter 7 World Population .............................................................55
World Population Growth .......................................................55
Demographic Transitions ........................................................60
Health and Mortality Transition ........................................61
Fertility Transition ...............................................................62
Population Trends ................................................................65
© 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
Contents • vii
Regional Differences .................................................................67
Endnotes .....................................................................................70
Chapter 8 United States Population .................................................73
Overview of U.S. Population and Projections .......................73
The United States in 2050 .........................................................75
Endnotes .....................................................................................76
Chapter 9 World Age Distribution and Sustainability....................79
Age Distributions .....................................................................80
Sustainability: Carrying Capacity ..........................................84
Global Sustainability and Carrying Capacity ..................85
World Standard of Living ...................................................86
World Sustainability Estimates...........................................87
Global Ecological Footprint ...............................................88
Endnotes ....................................................................................90
Chapter 10 Population Policies and Dilemmas: Sustainability
of the Population ..............................................................91
Population Issues and Dilemmas ............................................92
Responsibilities and Challenges ..............................................93
Population Policies ....................................................................94
Sustainability Analysis: Population ........................................97
Endnotes ....................................................................................99
SeCtion iii Climate Change
Chapter 11 Climate Change: Introduction and Definitions ...........103
Introduction .............................................................................103
Definitions ................................................................................106
Endnotes ...................................................................................107
Chapter 12 History and Background of the Science .......................109
Years 1824 to 1957 ...................................................................109
Keeling Curve: 1958 ................................................................112
Endnotes ...................................................................................114
© 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
viii • Contents
Chapter 13 Greenhouse Effect ..........................................................115
Svante Arrhenius Revisited ....................................................116
Energy Balance ........................................................................118
Carbon Cycle ...........................................................................120
Historic CO Levels .................................................................121
2
CO /Temperature Sensitivity ................................................123
2
Endnotes ...................................................................................125
Chapter 14 Climate Change Overlays ..............................................127
Indicators of a Warming World ............................................127
Sea Levels ..................................................................................129
Atmosphere: Weather Events ................................................134
Precipitation .......................................................................134
Storms ...................................................................................135
Arctic Linkages to Storms .................................................136
Droughts ..............................................................................137
Ecosystem Impacts .............................................................138
Endnotes ...................................................................................139
Chapter 15 Mitigation Planning for a Warmer Future ...................141
International Actions ..............................................................142
Actions Required to Meet Mitigation Objectives ...............146
IPCC Mitigation Solutions ................................................146
Stabilization Wedges ..........................................................147
Other Emissions Mitigation Alternatives .......................151
Endnotes ...................................................................................153
SeCtion iV energy Resources
Chapter 16 Energy Constraint Overlay ............................................157
Introduction to Energy ...........................................................157
Energy Production Overview ................................................159
Golden Age of Cheap Energy.................................................164
SWOT Analyses .......................................................................166
Endnotes ...................................................................................167
© 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
Contents • ix
SeCtion V energey Resources:
nonrenewable energy Source overlays
Chapter 17 Nonrenewable Energy: Coal ..........................................171
Formation and Discovery .......................................................171
SWOT Analysis: Coal .............................................................172
Strengths ..............................................................................172
Weaknesses ..........................................................................174
Opportunities ......................................................................176
Threats ..................................................................................177
Sustainability Analysis: Coal Reserves .................................178
Endnotes ...................................................................................180
Chapter 18 Nonrenewable Energy: Liquid Fuels ............................. 181
Formation and Discovery .......................................................182
Production and Forecast ........................................................182
SWOT Analysis: Oil Industry ................................................189
Strengths ..............................................................................189
Weaknesses ..........................................................................192
Opportunities ......................................................................198
Threats ..................................................................................199
Sustainability Analysis: Oil Options ....................................201
Endnotes ..................................................................................202
Chapter 19 Nonrenewable Energy: Natural Gas .............................205
Formation and Discovery ......................................................206
Natural Gas Usage ..................................................................206
Shale Gas ..................................................................................208
SWOT Analysis: Natural Gas Industry ................................210
Strengths ..............................................................................210
Weaknesses ..........................................................................211
Opportunities ......................................................................212
Threats ..................................................................................213
Sustainability Analysis: Natural Gas ....................................213
Endnotes ...................................................................................214
© 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC