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Sustainable Program Management PDF

376 Pages·2013·18.347 MB·English
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H Project Management a u Sustainable g The world is undergoing major transitions due to three driving forces— a n population changes, climate changes, and energy resource constraints— making it essential for us to move toward sustainability in the Program S implementation of projects and programs as well as our everyday life. Real sustainability exists where there is a balance between population u and energy usage and a stable climate—global equilibrium. Designed s for program and portfolio managers and senior planners, Sustainable t Management a Program Management provides essential information on the three major driving forces of the coming decades and presents options to i n assist us in moving toward a sustainable future. a b This book offers a unique approach to accommodating the three new l constraints of population change, climate change, and energy resources e as impacts on programs and portfolios. It presents them in the form of overlays, which facilitate planning by considering the effects of these P additional constraints on a program, along with schedule, budget, and r performance constraints. The overlays summarize the book’s extensive o analyses of these global challenges. g r The book is divided into sections on population change, climate change, a and energy resource constraints and provides background information m and overlays for each one. The author discusses scenarios, possible solutions, and probable outcomes, which provide the basis for evaluating M the risks and the sustainability considerations involved. The final section of the text addresses planning for real sustainability and describes six a pathways toward a sustainable system. This practical book familiarizes n readers with these new global challenges to program management and a provides a basis for developing sustainable and successful programs. g e m e Gregory T. Haugan n K16683 6000 Broken Sound Parkway, NW t Suite 300, Boca Raton, FL 33487 ISBN: 978-1-4665-7516-5 711 Third Avenue 90000 New York, NY 10017 an informa business 2 Park Square, Milton Park www.crcpress.com Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN, UK 9 781466 575165 www.auerbach-publications.com K16683 cvr mech.indd 1 8/16/13 9:07 AM Sustainable Program Management Best Practices and Advances in Program Management Series Series Editor Ginger Levin   PUBLISHED TITLES Sustainable Program Management Gregory T. Haugan Leading Virtual Project Teams: Adapting Leadership Theories and Communications Techniques to 21st Century Organizations Margaret R. Lee Applying Guiding Principles of Effective Program Delivery Kerry R. Wills Construction Program Management Joseph Delaney Implementing Program Management: Templates and Forms Aligned with the Standard for Program Management, Third Edition (2013) and Other Best Practices Ginger Levin and Allen R. Green Program Management: A Life Cycle Approach Ginger Levin FORTHCOMING TITLES Successful Program Management: Complexity Theory, Communication, and Leadership Wanda Curlee and Robert Lee Gordon From Projects to Programs: A Project Manager’s Journey Samir Penkar Program Management Leadership: Creating Successful Team Dynamics Mark C. Bojeun The Essential Program Management Office Gary Hamilton Sustainable Program Management Gregory T. Haugan CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group 6000 Broken Sound Parkway NW, Suite 300 Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742 © 2014 by Taylor & Francis Group, LLC CRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business No claim to original U.S. Government works Version Date: 20130729 International Standard Book Number-13: 978-1-4665-7517-2 (eBook - PDF) This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reasonable efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and publisher cannot assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or the consequences of their use. The authors and publishers have attempted to trace the copyright holders of all material reproduced in this publication and apologize to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained. If any copyright material has not been acknowledged please write and let us know so we may rectify in any future reprint. Except as permitted under U.S. Copyright Law, no part of this book may be reprinted, reproduced, transmit- ted, or utilized in any form by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying, microfilming, and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the publishers. For permission to photocopy or use material electronically from this work, please access www.copyright. com (http://www.copyright.com/) or contact the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc. (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400. CCC is a not-for-profit organization that provides licenses and registration for a variety of users. For organizations that have been granted a photocopy license by the CCC, a separate system of payment has been arranged. Trademark Notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Visit the Taylor & Francis Web site at http://www.taylorandfrancis.com and the CRC Press Web site at http://www.crcpress.com Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................xiii Preface .................................................................................................xvii Acknowledgments ...............................................................................xxi About the Author. .............................................................................xxiii Chapter 1 Overlay Concept and Structure for Sustainability. ..........1 Overlay Zoning Analogy ............................................................1 Overlay Criteria ...........................................................................2 1. Purpose ................................................................................2 2. Applicability ........................................................................3 3. Specific Rules .......................................................................4 Work Breakdown Structure .......................................................5 Endnotes .......................................................................................5 SeCtion i Sustainability Chapter 2 Sustainability Definitions and Concepts. .........................9 Definitions of Sustainability ......................................................9 Basic Definition: Type 1 .......................................................10 Forestry Definition: Type 2 .................................................10 Systems Definition of Sustainability: Type 3 ....................11 MIT Sloan School of Management Definition: Type 4....14 Environmental Sustainability: Type 5 ...............................14 Ecological Footprint: Type 6 ...............................................16 Generational Sustainability: Type 7 ...................................16 Sustainability as a Process Destination: Type 8 ...............17 Global Sustainability .................................................................18 Sustainability Standards and Certifications ..........................18 Endnotes .....................................................................................18 © 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC v vi • Contents Chapter 3 Sustainable Development. ................................................21 Brundtland Report ....................................................................21 United Nations ...........................................................................23 Agenda 21 ...................................................................................25 Millennium Development Goals .............................................27 Endnotes .....................................................................................29 Chapter 4 Rules and Sustaining the Commons ...............................31 Sustainability Rules ...................................................................31 Sustaining the Commons .........................................................32 Tragedy of the Commons ....................................................32 Problem Resolutions ............................................................34 Rules for Protecting the Commons ....................................35 Chesapeake Bay Case Study ................................................36 Protection of the Commons ................................................37 Recommendations to Protect the Global Commons .......37 Endnotes .....................................................................................39 SeCtion ii Population Chapter 5 Overview: Population and Demographics Overlay .......43 Endnotes ....................................................................................46 Chapter 6 Introduction to Demographics........................................49 Thomas Robert Malthus ...........................................................50 Socialism .....................................................................................51 Demographic Transition Stages ..............................................52 Immigration and Migration ....................................................53 Endnotes ....................................................................................54 Chapter 7 World Population .............................................................55 World Population Growth .......................................................55 Demographic Transitions ........................................................60 Health and Mortality Transition ........................................61 Fertility Transition ...............................................................62 Population Trends ................................................................65 © 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Contents • vii Regional Differences .................................................................67 Endnotes .....................................................................................70 Chapter 8 United States Population .................................................73 Overview of U.S. Population and Projections .......................73 The United States in 2050 .........................................................75 Endnotes .....................................................................................76 Chapter 9 World Age Distribution and Sustainability....................79 Age Distributions .....................................................................80 Sustainability: Carrying Capacity ..........................................84 Global Sustainability and Carrying Capacity ..................85 World Standard of Living ...................................................86 World Sustainability Estimates...........................................87 Global Ecological Footprint ...............................................88 Endnotes ....................................................................................90 Chapter 10 Population Policies and Dilemmas: Sustainability of the Population ..............................................................91 Population Issues and Dilemmas ............................................92 Responsibilities and Challenges ..............................................93 Population Policies ....................................................................94 Sustainability Analysis: Population ........................................97 Endnotes ....................................................................................99 SeCtion iii Climate Change Chapter 11 Climate Change: Introduction and Definitions ...........103 Introduction .............................................................................103 Definitions ................................................................................106 Endnotes ...................................................................................107 Chapter 12 History and Background of the Science .......................109 Years 1824 to 1957 ...................................................................109 Keeling Curve: 1958 ................................................................112 Endnotes ...................................................................................114 © 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC viii • Contents Chapter 13 Greenhouse Effect ..........................................................115 Svante Arrhenius Revisited ....................................................116 Energy Balance ........................................................................118 Carbon Cycle ...........................................................................120 Historic CO Levels .................................................................121 2 CO /Temperature Sensitivity ................................................123 2 Endnotes ...................................................................................125 Chapter 14 Climate Change Overlays ..............................................127 Indicators of a Warming World ............................................127 Sea Levels ..................................................................................129 Atmosphere: Weather Events ................................................134 Precipitation .......................................................................134 Storms ...................................................................................135 Arctic Linkages to Storms .................................................136 Droughts ..............................................................................137 Ecosystem Impacts .............................................................138 Endnotes ...................................................................................139 Chapter 15 Mitigation Planning for a Warmer Future ...................141 International Actions ..............................................................142 Actions Required to Meet Mitigation Objectives ...............146 IPCC Mitigation Solutions ................................................146 Stabilization Wedges ..........................................................147 Other Emissions Mitigation Alternatives .......................151 Endnotes ...................................................................................153 SeCtion iV energy Resources Chapter 16 Energy Constraint Overlay ............................................157 Introduction to Energy ...........................................................157 Energy Production Overview ................................................159 Golden Age of Cheap Energy.................................................164 SWOT Analyses .......................................................................166 Endnotes ...................................................................................167 © 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Contents • ix SeCtion V energey Resources: nonrenewable energy Source overlays Chapter 17 Nonrenewable Energy: Coal ..........................................171 Formation and Discovery .......................................................171 SWOT Analysis: Coal .............................................................172 Strengths ..............................................................................172 Weaknesses ..........................................................................174 Opportunities ......................................................................176 Threats ..................................................................................177 Sustainability Analysis: Coal Reserves .................................178 Endnotes ...................................................................................180 Chapter 18 Nonrenewable Energy: Liquid Fuels ............................. 181 Formation and Discovery .......................................................182 Production and Forecast ........................................................182 SWOT Analysis: Oil Industry ................................................189 Strengths ..............................................................................189 Weaknesses ..........................................................................192 Opportunities ......................................................................198 Threats ..................................................................................199 Sustainability Analysis: Oil Options ....................................201 Endnotes ..................................................................................202 Chapter 19 Nonrenewable Energy: Natural Gas .............................205 Formation and Discovery ......................................................206 Natural Gas Usage ..................................................................206 Shale Gas ..................................................................................208 SWOT Analysis: Natural Gas Industry ................................210 Strengths ..............................................................................210 Weaknesses ..........................................................................211 Opportunities ......................................................................212 Threats ..................................................................................213 Sustainability Analysis: Natural Gas ....................................213 Endnotes ...................................................................................214 © 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

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