study on actual ghg data for diesel, petrol, kerosene and natural gas

270 Pages·2015·8.29 MB·English

DG ENER
FRAMEWORK SERVICE CONTRACT
SRD MOVE/ENER/SRD.1/2012-409-LOT 3-COWI
COWI CONSORTIUM
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FAX [phone]
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
DG ENER
STUDY ON ACTUAL GHG
DATA FOR DIESEL,
PETROL, KEROSENE AND
NATURAL GAS

INTERIM REPORT

WORK ORDER: ENER/C2/2013-643

OCTOBER 2014
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
DG ENER
STUDY ON ACTUAL
GHG DATA FOR
DIESEL, PETROL,
KEROSENE AND
NATURAL GAS
INTERIM REPORT

WORK ORDER: ENER/C2/2013-643

OCTOBER 2014
Study on actual GHG data for diesel, petrol, kerosene and natural gas Interim Report

Table of Contents
LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................ 7
LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................ 11
ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................... 14
SUMMARY .................................................................................. 17
1 REVIEW AND PROGRESS OF STUDY TASKS .................. 19
1.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 19
1.2 Legal Context ................................................................................................ 20
1.3 Overview of Study Tasks ............................................................................... 21
1.3.1 Task a: Literature survey ........................................................................... 21
1.3.2 Task b: Data acquisition ............................................................................ 22
1.3.3 Task c: Models to estimate max and min GHG emissions ......................... 23
1.3.4 Task d: Emissions due to accidents and other operational failures ............ 24
1.3.5 Task e: Other issues related to sustainability ............................................ 24
1.3.6 Task f: Emissions projections up to 2030 .................................................. 25
1.4 Contribution of The Present Study to Oil and Gas GHG Emissions Assessment
25
1.4.1 JEC Report: Well-To-Tank (WTT) emissions ............................................. 27
1.4.2 NETL Report: An Evaluation of the Extraction, Transport and Refining of
Imported Crude Oils and the Impact on Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions
28
1.4.3 ICCT Study: Upstream Emissions of Fossil Fuel Feedstocks for Transport
Fuels Consumed in the European Union ................................................... 29
1.4.4 ICF Study: Independent Assessment of the European Commission’s Fuel
Quality Directive’s “Conventional” Default Value ....................................... 29
1.4.5 Jacobs Consultancy Report: EU Pathway Study: Life Cycle Assessment of
Crude Oils in a European Context ............................................................. 30
1.4.6 ICF Study: Desk Study on Indirect GHG Emissions from Fossil Fuels ....... 31
1.4.7 NETL: Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Inventory of Natural Gas Extraction,
Delivery and Electricity Production ............................................................ 32
1.4.8 OGP Report: Environmental Performance Indicators - 2012 Data ............. 33
1.4.9 Upstream greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from Canadian oil sands as a
feedstock for European refineries .............................................................. 33
1.5 Progress Achieved Till October 2014 ............................................................. 34
1.5.1 Key dates of project evolution ................................................................... 36
2 TASK A: LITERATURE SURVEY ........................................ 37
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Study on actual GHG data for diesel, petrol, kerosene and natural gas Interim Report

2.1 Survey Approach ........................................................................................... 37
2.2 Presentation Of Literature Database .............................................................. 39
3 TASK B: DATA ACQUISITION ............................................ 41
3.1 EU Oil and Gas Supply .................................................................................. 41
3.1.1 EU crude oil supply ................................................................................... 41
3.1.2 Supply of refined products from third countries ......................................... 43
3.1.3 EU natural gas supply ............................................................................... 45
3.2 General Methodological Considerations for GHG Life Cycle Emission
Assessment ................................................................................................... 49
3.2.1 Fuels examined ......................................................................................... 49
3.2.2 Categorization of data collection ............................................................... 49
3.2.3 Geographical coverage ............................................................................. 51
3.2.4 Choice of baseline year ............................................................................. 51
3.2.5 System boundaries ................................................................................... 51
3.2.6 Global Warming Potential (GWP) used ..................................................... 51
3.2.7 Utilization of Minimum/Maximum approach ............................................... 51
3.3 Methodological Approach for Oil .................................................................... 52
3.3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 52
3.3.2 Upstream .................................................................................................. 56
3.3.3 Midstream ................................................................................................. 67
3.3.4 Downstream .............................................................................................. 87
3.3.5 GHG emissions of refined products ........................................................... 91
3.3.6 GHG emissions of unconventional crude oil and natural gas ..................... 95
3.4 Methodological Approach for Natural Gas GHG Assessment ........................ 96
3.4.1 Natural gas supply chain ........................................................................... 96
3.4.2 Methodology for assessing GHG emissions .............................................. 98
3.4.3 Natural Gas Streams ................................................................................. 99
3.4.4 Upstream ................................................................................................ 103
3.4.5 Midstream ............................................................................................... 107
Algeria 115
LNG production ................................................................................................ 115
3.4.6 Downstream ............................................................................................ 120
3.5 Approach for Data Collection ....................................................................... 123
3.5.1 Correspondence with oil and gas companies .......................................... 123
3.5.2 Approach for actual emissions data collection ......................................... 126
3.6 ACTUAL DATA FOR CRUDE OIL ...................................................................... 129
3.6.1 Russia and FSU countries ....................................................................... 130
3.6.2 Azerbaijan ............................................................................................... 134
3.6.3 Norway 136
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3.6.4 United Kingdom....................................................................................... 142
3.6.5 Nigeria 145
3.6.6 Denmark ................................................................................................. 146
3.6.7 Angola 148
3.6.8 Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) reports ................................................ 149
3.6.9 Refining 150
3.6.10 Overview and evaluation of actual data collection progress for oil151
3.7 ACTUAL DATA FOR NATURAL GAS .................................................................. 154
3.7.1 Russia 155
3.7.2 The Netherlands...................................................................................... 157
3.7.3 Germany ................................................................................................. 158
3.7.4 Norway 159
3.7.5 United Kingdom....................................................................................... 160
3.7.6 Qatar 162
3.8 Data for Models ........................................................................................... 163
3.8.1 Data for OPGEE...................................................................................... 163
3.8.2 Data for PRIMES-Refinery ...................................................................... 167
3.8.3 Data for GHGenius .................................................................................. 170
3.9 Literature Data ............................................................................................. 180
4 TASK C: GHG EMISSIONS MODELLING .......................... 182
4.1 The OPGEE Model ...................................................................................... 183
4.1.1 Model rationale and structure .................................................................. 183
4.1.2 Required Inputs ....................................................................................... 185
4.1.3 Parametric significance ........................................................................... 186
4.1.4 Produced outputs .................................................................................... 194
4.1.5 Draft results ............................................................................................. 197
4.2 The PRIMES-Refinery Model ....................................................................... 198
4.2.1 Model rationale and structure .................................................................. 199
4.2.2 Required Inputs and Outputs of the model .............................................. 204
4.2.3 Estimating the GHG emissions due to transportation from refineries to filling
stations 205
4.3 The GHGenius model .................................................................................. 208
4.3.1 Model rationale and structure .................................................................. 208
4.3.2 Model parameters and structure modification .......................................... 208
4.3.3 Required Inputs ....................................................................................... 210
4.3.4 Parametric significance ........................................................................... 211
4.3.5 Produced outputs .................................................................................... 212
5 TASK D: INDIRECT EMISSIONS ....................................... 215
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Study on actual GHG data for diesel, petrol, kerosene and natural gas Interim Report

5.1 System Boundary Definition ......................................................................... 215
5.2 Attributional And Consequential Emissions .................................................. 215
5.3 Main Indirect Emissions ............................................................................... 217
5.3.1 Attributional emissions sources ............................................................... 217
5.3.2 Consequential emissions sources ........................................................... 219
5.4 Methodology For Assessment Of Indirect Emissions ................................... 220
5.5 Data collection for indirect emissions ........................................................... 222
5.5.1 Induced land GHG emissions .................................................................. 222
5.5.2 Accidents ................................................................................................ 224
5.5.3 Military GHG emissions ........................................................................... 225
5.6 Preliminary Results ...................................................................................... 226
6 TASK F: PROJECTIONS UP TO 2030 ............................... 228
6.1 Introduction to the Methodology ................................................................... 228
6.2 The PRIMES Energy Systems Model .......................................................... 229
6.2.1 Model structure ....................................................................................... 229
6.2.2 Model coverage....................................................................................... 229
ANNEX A: COORDINATES ...................................................... 231
Annex A.1: Oil fields.............................................................................................. 231
Annex A.2: Terminals ............................................................................................ 232
Annex A.3 Ports .................................................................................................... 234
ANNEX B: MAPS ...................................................................... 237
Annex B.1: Oil fields maps .................................................................................... 237
Annex B.2: Oil pipeline maps ................................................................................ 241
ANNEX C: LITERATURE DATABASE EXTRACT .................... 246
ANNEX D: LETTER TEMPLATE FOR OIL AND GAS DATA
REQUEST .......................................................................... 270

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Study on actual GHG data for diesel, petrol, kerosene and natural gas Interim Report

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1: Diagram with project Tasks and flows of information inputs ...................... 21
Figure 1.2: Time schedule of project Tasks as in the proposal .................................... 35
Figure 2.1: Snapshot of the literature database. .......................................................... 40
Figure 3.1: EU crude oil supply 2010 - 2014 (source: DG ENER) ............................... 41
Figure 3.2: EU crude oil by country in 2012 (source: DG ENER)................................. 42
Figure 3.3: Russian crude oil exports in million b/d (source: CDU-TEK) ...................... 42
Figure 3.4: Transneft’s Druzhba deliveries plan for 1st Quarter of 2011 in million b/d
excluding transit (source: Transneft) ................................................................... 43
Figure 3.5: Russian diesel export forecast 2014 – 2020 and OECD Europe diesel
supply forecast 2014-2020 (source: OGJ, based on ESAI Energy study) ............ 44
Figure 3.6: EU Natural Gas Imports, Production and Consumption in million cubic
meters for 2012. .................................................................................................. 45
Figure 3.7: EU natural gas supply by country of origin, 2012 (source: IEA) ................. 46
Figure 3.8: Gas trade flows in Europe (source: IEA) ................................................... 48
Figure 3.9: Overview of the strategy for the assessment of GHG emissions for crude oil
and natural gas ................................................................................................... 50
Figure 3.10: Physical flow of crude oil illustrating the basic stages that are examined by
the study ............................................................................................................. 53
Figure 3.11: Main steps for the assessment of GHG emissions of gasoline, diesel and
kerosene ............................................................................................................. 53
Figure 3.12: Crude oil benchmarks used worldwide (source: ICE) .............................. 54
Figure 3.13: Quantities produced globally and properties of main crudes (source: ENI
2012)................................................................................................................... 56
Figure 3.14: Map of representative oil fields and their terminals ................................. 64
Figure 3.15: Exports in million b/d including transit through Russian ports Quarter 1 of
2010 to Quarter 1 of 2011 (source: CDU) ............................................................ 69
Figure 3.16: Map of major ports importing crude oil in Europe .................................... 71
Figure 3.17: The Baltic Pipeline System. Gas pipelines are shown in red colour, oil
pipelines in green and the dashed line shows the planned pipelines. (source: EIA)
............................................................................................................................ 72
Figure 3.18: Russian crude oil analysis from oil field to MCON ................................... 77
Figure 3.19: Map with main routes of Russian pipelines supplying crude oil to Europe78
Figure 3.20: Location of major refineries in Europe ..................................................... 87
Figure 3.21: EU 28 imports of refined products (in barrels of oil per day) for specific
refined products from Russia and USA (source: Eurostat) .................................. 91
Figure 3.22: Methodology for the assessment of emissions from refined products ...... 92
Figure 3.23: Map of Russian Refineries supplying refined products to EU .................. 94
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Study on actual GHG data for diesel, petrol, kerosene and natural gas Interim Report

Figure 3.24: Natural gas supply chain (Source: CE, Delft) .......................................... 97
Figure 3.25: Natural gas streams methodological approach........................................ 98
Figure 3.26: Natural gas streams arriving to the South East EU region ..................... 101
Figure 3.27: Natural gas streams arriving to the North EU region ............................. 101
Figure 3.28: Natural gas streams arriving to the South West EU region .................... 102
Figure 3.29: Natural gas streams arriving to the Central EU region ........................... 102
Figure 3.30: Map of natural gas producing fields supplying the EU ........................... 105
Figure 3.31: Map of LNG supply of the EU including liquefaction plants and importing
terminals ........................................................................................................... 110
Figure 3.32: Map of major Russian natural gas pipelines arriving to Europe (Source:
Wikipedia) ......................................................................................................... 111
Figure 3.33: Map of the Norwegian Continental Shelf natural gas pipelines .............. 114
Figure 3.34: Algerian natural gas transport pipelines map (Source: Sonatrach) ........ 115
Figure 3.35: Qatar energy infrastructure map (Source: EIA) ..................................... 117
Figure 3.36: Map of the Greenstream pipeline .......................................................... 118
Figure 3.37: Map of the UK Natural gas international pipelines ................................. 119
Figure 3.38: Netherlands gas transmission map ....................................................... 120
Figure 3.39: Flaring emissions (in bcm) according to the NOAA/GGFR database and
flaring to oil ratio (scf/bbl) for the calculated based on EIA production volumes for
2011 .................................................................................................................. 131
Figure 3.40: Flaring of associated gas in target countries in bcm according to national
statistics for the years 2006 – 2012, in billion cubic meters (source: EBRD) ..... 132
Figure 3.41: Comparison of associated flaring volumes in bcm between national
statistics and NOAA estimates (source: EBRD) ................................................ 132
Figure 3.42: APG production and flaring in Russia by zone in bcm, 2010 (KPMG) ... 133
Figure 3.43: BP’s emissions in Azerbaijan for 2012 (emission in kilotonnes) ............ 135
Figure 3.44: BP in Azerbaijan gross flaring volumes by asset in kilotonnes (source: BP)
.......................................................................................................................... 136
Figure 3.45: GHG emissions produced for petroleum from various origins (in kg of
carbon equivalent per barrel of oil produced) (source OGP, Environment Web) 137
Figure 3.46 : Breakdown of GHG emissions by source in metric tonnes CO equivalent
2
for Norway (source: NPD) ................................................................................. 138
Figure 3.47: GHG emissions of representative Norwegian oil fields in tonnes of CO2
equivalent (source: Norwegian Environmental Directorate) ............................... 139
Figure 3.48: GHG emissions per unit of output of oil (in tonnes CO2 equivalent per m3
of oil) (source: NPD and own elaboration) ......................................................... 139
Figure 3.49: Breakdown of emissions of the UK oil sector by source (in million metric
tonnes) (source: DEFRA) .................................................................................. 143
Figure 3.50: Total atmospheric CO2 emissions and emissions due to consumption of
fuel gas for energy production (in tonnes CO2 equivalent) for three oil fields
(source: NEXEN)............................................................................................... 143
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Study on actual GHG data for diesel, petrol, kerosene and natural gas Interim Report

Figure 3.51: CO emissions from production facilities in the North Sea (source: DEA)
2
.......................................................................................................................... 147
Figure 3.52: Fuel consumption (gas) for upstream activities (source: DEA) .............. 147
Figure 3.53: CO2 emissions from consumption of fuel per mtoe (source: DEA) ........ 148
Figure 3.54: Gas flared (source: DEA) ...................................................................... 148
Figure 3.55: Emissions of the refinery sector per country for 2012 in kt CO2 equivalent
as verified by the European Trading Scheme – ETS (source: European
Environmental Agency) ..................................................................................... 151
Figure 3.56: Breakdown of emissions of the UK gas sector by source in kilotonnes CO
2
(source: DEFRA) ............................................................................................... 161
Figure 3.57: Flaring (% of sweet gas) for Qatargas for the 1st half of 2014 ............... 163
Figure 3.58: GHG intensity (tonne CO2 eq. GHG/ tonne LNG) for Qatargas for the first
half of 2014 ....................................................................................................... 163
Figure 3.59: UK Gas Leakage Rate over the years 2002 – 2012 (source: DECC) .... 174
Figure 4.1: Schematic chart with the various stages of the LCA analysis included in the
OPGEE model (Source: OPGEE model documentation) ................................... 184
Figure 4.2: Sensitivity analysis on the API gravity: results obtained using the OPGEE
model ................................................................................................................ 189
Figure 4.3: Sensitivity analysis on the Water to Oil Ratio (WOR): results obtained using
the OPGEE model............................................................................................. 190
Figure 4.4: Sensitivity analysis on the Flaring to Oil Ratio (FOR): results obtained using
the OPGEE model............................................................................................. 191
Figure 4.5: Sensitivity analysis on the Venting to Oil Ratio (VOR): results obtained
using the OPGEE model ................................................................................... 192
Figure 4.6: Sensitivity analysis on the marine shipping Origin- destination (O-D)
distance: results obtained using the OPGEE model .......................................... 194
Figure 4.7: Draft results on GHG emissions of five MCONs using the OPGEE model
(input data from Task b) .................................................................................... 198
Figure 4.8: Schematic representation of the main processes included in the
representative refinery structure of the PRIMES-Refinery model ....................... 200
Figure 5.1: Identification of indirect emission sources related to oil and gas pathway
from well to tank ................................................................................................ 217
Figure B.1: Nigerian pipelines oil and gas fields map ................................................ 237
Figure B.2: Algerian pipelines, oil and gas fields map (source: Ministère de l’Energie et
des Mines) ........................................................................................................ 238
Figure B.3: Iraq’s pipelines, oil and gas fields map (source: Platts) ........................... 238
Figure B.4: Arabian oil and gas pipeline system ........................................................ 239
Figure B.5: Libyan pipelines, and oil fields map (source: Goldman Sachs) ............... 240
Figure B.6: Major Caspian oil and gas pipeline system (source: EIA) ....................... 241
Figure B.7: Russian oil and gas pipeline system (source: Theodora Maps) .............. 242
Figure B.8: Balkan oil and gas pipeline system (source: Theodora Maps) ................ 242
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Study on actual GHG data for diesel, petrol, kerosene and natural gas Interim Report

Figure B.9: Oil and gas pipeline system of Central Europe (source: Theodora Maps)
.......................................................................................................................... 243
Figure B.10: Oil and gas pipeline system of North Africa (source: Theodora Maps) . 244
Figure B.11: Oil and gas pipeline system of Middle East (source: EIA) ..................... 245

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