Structure and Agent in the Scientific Diplomacy of Climate Change - An Empirical Case Study of Science-Policy Interaction in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Advances in Global Change Research Volume 5)

268 Pages·2000·2.18 MB·English

by  T. Skodvin

STRUCTURE AND AGENT IN THE SCIENTIFIC DIPLOMACY OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
ADVANCES IN GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH
VOLUME 5
Editor-in-Chief
Martin Beniston, Institute of Geography, University of Fribourg, Perolles,
Switzerland
Editorial Advisory Board
B. Allen-Diaz, Department ESPM-Ecosystem Sciences, University of California, Berkeley,
CA, U.S.A.
R.S. Bradley, Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA,
U.S.A.
W. Cramer, Department of Global Change and Natural Systems, Potsdam Institute for Cli-
mate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
H.F. Diaz, NOAA/ERL/CDC, Boulder, CO, U.S.A.
S. Erkman, Institute for Communication and Analysis of Science and Technology – ICAST,
Geneva, Switzerland.
M. Lal, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi, India.
M.M. Verstraete, Space Applications Institute, EC Joint Research Centre, Ispra (VA),
Italy.
The titles in this series are listed at the end of this volume.
STRUCTURE AND AGENT IN THE
SCIENTIFIC DIPLOMACY OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
An Empirical Case Study of Science-Policy Interaction
in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
by
Tora Skodvin
Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo (CICERO),
University of Oslo,
Blindern, Oslo, Norway
KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS
NEW YORK,BOSTON, DORDRECHT, LONDON, MOSCOW
eBookISBN: 0-306-48168-5
Print ISBN: 0-7923-6637-9
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Contents
Acronyms ix
Acknowledgements xi
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Structure and Agent in Science–Policy Interaction 1
1.2 The Scientific Diplomacy ofClimate Change 5
1.3 Structure ofthe book 7
1.4 Generalisations 10
Chapter 2 Effectiveness inProcesses ofScience–Policy Interaction 13
2.1 Introduction 13
2.2 Effectiveness as Realisation ofOfficial Purpose 14
2.3 Policy Acceptance as Reflected in a Consensual Problem
Diagnosis 17
2.3.1 The Development of a Consensual Problem Diagnosis 18
2.4 Towards a Comprehensive Definition ofEffectiveness 20
2.5 A“Consensual Problem Diagnosis” versus “Consensual
Knowledge” 22
2.6 In Sum 24
Chapter 3 The Science–PolicyNexus 27
3.1 Introduction 27
3.2 The Internal Dynamics ofScientific Inquiry 28
3.2.1 The RoleofConsensusinScience 29
3.2.2 The Development of Consensus in Science 34
3.2.3 In Sum 40
3.3 The Internal Dynamics ofPolitics 40
vi
3.3.1 TheStrategicValueofInformation inDistributive
Bargaining 41
3.3.2 The Role of Information in Integrative Bargaining 45
3.3.3 The Dilemmas of Mixed Bargaining 49
3.3.4 What Kind ofInformation is Needed and When? 51
3.3.5 In Sum 55
3.4 The Dynamics ofScience–Policy Interaction 56
3.4.1 Scientific Knowledgeas Legitimisation forPolicy Choice 57
3.4.2 “Negotiating” Knowledge 61
3.5 In Sum 63
Chapter 4 Designing Institutions for Science–Policy
Interaction 65
4.1 Introduction 65
4.2 InstitutionsDefined 66
4.3 Do Institutions Matter, and Can They be Designed? 67
4.3.1 Social Institutions as Rational, Natural and Open Systems 68
4.3.2 Institutions as Instruments 69
4.4 Realising theInstrumentalPotential ofInstitutionalDesign 71
4.4.1 Institutional Functions 71
4.4.2 LinkingFunctionstoInstitutionalDevices 73
4.5 Leadership Performance 80
4.5.1 Leadership Performance in Negotiations 81
4.5.2 The Role of Scientific Elites 83
4.5.3 Leadership Functionsin Processes ofScience–Policy
Interaction 84
4.5.4 Links Between Institutional Design and Leadership
Performance 87
4.6 Problem Malignancy and the State of Knowledge 87
4.6.1 Problem Malignancy 88
4.6.2 State ofKnowledge 90
4.7 In Sum 90
Chapter 5 The Development of an International Regime on a
Human-Induced Climate Change 93
5.1 Introduction 93
5.2 TheProblemofaHuman-Induced ClimateChange 93
5.3 The Scientific and Political History oftheDevelopment
of an International Regime on a Human-Induced Climate
Change 97
5.4 The Effectiveness of the Science–Policy Dialogue 100
5.5 In Sum 103
vii
Chapter 6 Structure: The Institutional Design of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 105
6.1 Introduction 105
6.2 TheInstitutional Set-up ofthe IPCC 106
6.3 The Assessment Process of the IPCC 109
6.3.1 The Assessment Process in Principle 109
6.3.2 The Assessment Process in Practice: The Proceedings
of WGI 112
6.3.3 TheAssessmentProcess in Practice–In Contrast to
the Proceedings ofthe Old WGIII 119
6.4 TheCapacityoftheInstitutionalArrangementsofthe
IPCCto ServetheFourMainFunctions 123
6.4.1 Scientific Autonomy 123
6.4.2 Science–Policy Integration 126
6.4.3 Geographic Representativeness 130
6.4.4 Mechanisms for Conflict Resolution 132
6.5 Enhanced Effectiveness? 142
6.5.1 Score 142
6.5.2 Effect 145
Chapter 7 Agent: Leadership Performance in the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 151
7.1 Introduction 151
7.2 IdentifyingLeadership Performance 152
7.2.1 ActorCapabilities 153
7.2.2 Leadership in the Development of the Knowledge Base 156
7.2.3 Leadership in the Transformation of Scientific Knowledge 161
7.2.4 Boundary-roleleadershipintheDevelopmentof
Institutional Arrangements 168
7.2.5 Boundary-roleLeadershipintheProvisionof
Communicative Links 177
7.3 InstitutionalConditions forLeadershipPerformance 182
7.3.1 AMandateforLeadership? 183
7.3.2 LeadershipRecruitment 186
7.4 Enhanced Effectiveness? 188
Chapter 8 Causal Relationship: Real or Spurious? 193
8.1 Introduction 193
8.2 ThePolitical Malignancy oftheProblem ofaHuman
Induced ClimateChange 196
8.3 The StateofKnowledge 206
viii
8.3.1 The Scientific Uncertainty of Climate Change 207
8.3.2 The IPCC’s handling of Scientific Uncertainty 210
8.3.3 In Sum 219
8.4 Causal Relationship: Real? 220
Chapter 9 Structure and Agent in the Scientific Diplomacy
of Climate Change 225
References 235
Appendix 249
Index 251
ACRONYMS
AGBM: Ad hoc Group on the Berlin Mandate
AGGG: Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases
AOSIS: Alliance of Small Island States
BATNA: Best Alternative To a Negotiated Agreement
CFC: chlorofluorocarbons
CO: carbon monoxide
COP: Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC
EC: European Community
EPA: Environmental Protection Agency (USA)
GCC: Global Climate Coalition
GCM: General Circulation Model
GHG: greenhouse gases
GWP: global warming potential
HCFC: hydrochlorofluorocarbons
HFC: hydrofluorocarbons
ICSU: International Council of Scientific Unions
IGO: intergovernmental organisation
INC/FCCC: Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework
Convention on Climate Change
INC: See INC/FCCC
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
LA: lead author
LRTAP: long-range transboundary air pollution
NGO: non-governmental organisation
ODP: ozone depleting potential
OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
SBSTA: Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice
SPM: Summary for Policymakers
UNCED: United Nations Conference on Environment and Development
UNEP: United Nations Environment Programme
UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WCP: World Climate Programme
ix